Tag: Wuhan Virus

All Bow, All Tremble, Before The Possible Might Of ‘The Gray Plague’

Who knows.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me make some things clear — first, I doubt we have anything to worry about at this point. We’ve reached the apex of all the issues with WuFlu and as such I can go back to developing my novel now. Also, I really, really, really don’t want the scenario I am about to suggest to happen in any way. But I have a moment of spare time, so here goes.

The key thing is what hasn’t happened yet. There are no new hotzones. There are no deaths in the West from WuFlu. And it definitely seems as though we’ve dodged a bullet on a macro level outside of a slight slowing of the global economy.

I have two metrics to determine if we in the West should begin to worry — the death rate among elderly celebrities and in South Florida. If that began to explode, then something is up. I say that only because the WuFlu death rate among the elderly — from what I can see online, at least — is rather staggering. There are 47 million Americans over the age of 65. If really was a “Gray Plague” they would be the majority of its deaths, hence the name.

Here’s the point where we have some real talk. If the absolute worst happened and over, say, about a year, 50 million Americans — mostly elderly — died from The Gray Plague, what would that mean? Well, first, the United States wouldn’t make it through it. The browning of America, which is on track to wrap up in about 30 years, would happen in less than a year. This would prompt such instability and bent up rage among MAGA that there would probably be massive civil unrest resulting in civil war and the implosion of the country altogether.

What would replace it, I don’t know. It might be something like Canada & a reborn CSA or something. It would not be pretty, whatever it was. But again, that’s rather fantastical at this point. More likely, all the good news we’re hearing from Wuhan is on the up-and-up and we can just move on. I hope I’m right, I really do.

‘Cast Away’ — #WuFlu Worst Case Scenario Survival Speculation

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@sheltgarner

First, don’t panic. I’m well known for being a daydreaming crank. As such, the following should be taken as entertainment. But let’s take an honest look at what might happen if The Worst Happened with WuFlu at some point in late January into early February. I am reminded of this scene in the movie Cast Away:

We are not prepared for the type of historic clusterfuck WuFlu might be. I say this because of what we know to be true in China right now. The fucking thing has a 10-12 day incubation and you can have no symptoms and be contagious. So, that’s nearly a fortnight of millions of people being able to go all over the world, exposing people and not knowing it.

Now, remember, I can’t predict the future. All I have is datapoints and no context. So this could all fizzle out and I can go back to developing my novel in peace. But suppose my worst fears happen and at some point, say around Jan. 31st, three things happen in quick success — maybe even within hours of each other: Brexit, we find out about a significance impeachment vote in the Senate….and there’s a significant flair up WuFlu cases in the West. I don’t think any of us are prepare for the reaction would be if one of the 80 year old Senators simply keeled over in the middle of the Senate with WuFlu.

That’s unlikely to happen, to say the least. But a lot of different things are happening at the same time, as if history is on the cusp of abrupt lurch forward into a new era in a rather dramatic fashion. If over the course of, say, a week, WuFlu is sufficiently potent that it begins to influence the impeachment trial AND Brexit, well, holy shit.

And, let me note, that the issue is perception. It doesn’t really matter how many people actually keel over in the States, it’s how many do it in a rather conspicuous fashion. But one thing I am mulling is continuation of government. The nightmare scenario is a lot of very important members of the Federal government abruptly become conspicuously incapacitated. But that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.

The point is, again, that I can’t predict the future. But just like when the airplane crashed in Cast Away, little decisions we make now may have some pretty big consequences for years to come.

Current WuFlu Datapoints & Questions #WuFlu #Wuhan #Corona

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suggest you read the book World War Z if you want some sense of what’s going on right now with the WuFlu. The novel is almost non-fiction at this point. But here are some interesting datapoints to mull.

Wuflu is less symptomatic than SARS
You can have it and not know it. You have two weeks to wander around the world, infecting 14+ other people and not know it.

China is freaking out
Growing number of cities in China are in total lockdown. What do they know that we don’t?

Datapoint trend is ominous.
I’ve looked at a chart comparing the growth of SARS and WuFlu cases and relative to that we should see a significant spike in cases very, very soon.

The dog that hasn’t barked, yet
It would not take many (white) people dying in major cities in the US for the Superbowl to be canceled rather abruptly. (Systemic racism is such in the US that it has to be white people.) That would set up a cascading set of events that might leave the whole world in a panic.

Trump is a bad leader
POTUS is likely to lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie about the situation for as long as possible then freak out and maybe lose his mind. When the only redeeming feature of his administration is its incompetence, that doesn’t exactly give one a lot of hope.

WuFlu may have a 15% mortality rate
That there have been so few deaths relative to the number of cases is unsettling. If it has an estimated mortality rate of as high as 15%, then what happens when we go from 1,000s of cases in China to 100,000s of cases worldwide?



When Do We Worry? #WuFlu #Wuhan

Now What.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Remember, 1 million Chinese people could die in the next few weeks and it would still not be enough to cancel the Superbowl. But one white person keels over on 5th Ave and suddenly that happens. (Systemic racism is a hell of a drug.)

I don’t expect WuFlu to be a problem. I see it as simply another Ebola. If it’s used for political ends it will be more a reflection of the polarization of American political life than anything else. But let’s imagine the worst happened and suddenly a dozen (white) people dropped in the middle of the street in various major cities across the United States.

If that happened anytime soon, they might cancel the Superbowl and Republicans would use it as an excuse to “vindicate” Trump even sooner than they might otherwise. Or, the WuFlu might be the first be crisis the Fourth Reich faced after its birth.

Some things to take into consideration — apparently WuFlu is a lot like smallpox in that there’s about two weeks between when you get it and when you start to feel ill enough that you might go to the doctor. That’s a lot of international travel you might undertake. Also, on a macro historical scale, commerce and pestilence are very much intertwined. The Black Death only happened because of the potency of the Silk Road that only existed because of the stability that the Mongol Empire provided. That also works in reverse, commerce could very well come to a halt on a macro scale if WuFlu shuts down all forms of international transportation — the moment that breaks down, the lives of every day people will begin to be affected in some pretty big ways.

Also, it might be only one (white) person dropping in NYC to cause a panic that would only make matters worse. People would stop going to work. People wouldn’t send their kids to school. States, then cities, then towns might self-quarantine in an effort to save themselves. When the lights go out on a massive scale, then you don’t have access to the Internet or other forms of mass media.

A lot of smaller nations — DPRK and Iran — would likely use a significant pandemic as an excuse to achieve otherwise unobtainable geopolitical goals. China might strike Taiwan as well.

I don’t expect any of that to happen. I really don’t.

Wargaming ‘#WuFlu 2020’ #Wuhan #coronovirus

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some observations about what’s going on with the “WuFlu.” As of right now, there’s no reason to panic or worry. As long as the media narrative is people are dying in China, then, well, lulz (at least according to Twitter “thought leaders.”) China is an authoritarian state, so there’s every reason to believe the outbreak could get far, far worst than any of us could possibly imagine but it would be contained.

It’s when people start dropping in the streets of major cities in the West that we lurch towards a pretty dark situation. What’s interesting is a number of things are happening at the same time — Brexit in the UK, impeachment in the US and now Wuhan in China.

I guess my main fear is that the leader of the free world is a deranged tyrannical lunatic.

Apocalypse Now: Brexit, Impeachment, & Wuhan

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are happening at the same time on a macro historical level at the moment and there’s a least a chance that they will begin to influence each other.

Brexit
As I understand it, Brexit is going to happen on Jan. 31, one way or another. I haven’t really kept up with how “hard” it’s meant to be, but it’s definitely going to cause some disruption in things in the short term.

Impeachment
We are rushing towards a pretty unsatisfactory conclusion on impeachment, with Trump being acquitted out of hand by the Senate for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is beholden to House Trump and only see democracy as a means to an end.

Wuhan
We haven’t had a pandemic in just under over 100 years. If we had a once-a-century pandemic given modern transportation, there’s a good chance the death toll would be far higher than any of us could possibly imagine.

As of right now, these three things are happening separate of each other. But there’s a least a small chance that will change. There’s a chance that there may come a point in the near future when they begin to at least influence each other in some way.

Say, for instance, that somehow we get a longer impeachment trial, long enough that the economic effects of Brexit begin to influence politics in the United States enough that public opinion begins to shift on Trump. This is probably highly unlikely — Trump’s probably going to be acquitted in a matter of hours, it seems. But if there was a longer trial, then there’s more chance that if the Wuhan virus begins to kill people at pandemic levels in the next few weeks, then all three things would influence each other.

What’s more likely to happen is something like this — there’s a short trial. Trump’s “vindicated.” And then all breaks loose. Then we see the one two punch of Brexit and Wuhan strike. It is the stress of finally having a crisis that is not a self-own that drives Trump completely bonkers. And given that use of the 25th Amendment to remove a president is a dead letter, then we would have a worse-case-scenario on our hands.

Trump complete and total lack of leadership would only make a bad situation far, far worse. In the end, the fate of humanity might be at stake and I honestly don’t have a ready answer as to the outcome.

’53 Angry Republican Senators’ & The WuTang Virus

Shelton Bumgarner

Observations