Tag: World War 3

MAGA Has Won The Culture Wars

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just like the Reagan Revolution shifted the political center of the United States Right, so, too, has the MAGA Revolution. The United States is far more conservative than it used to be and it probably will only grow more so going forward — probably to a scary degree.

There are a lot of unknowns, however.

The key one being is how successful Trump is going to be in his efforts to consolidate power. My only worry is he is so stupid and lazy that he will try to push the country into autocratic fascism so quickly that people finally — finally — get woke and there is some sort of General Strike or something.

I have my doubts that anything like that is possible.

Americans are just — for better or worse — too complacent. Things would have to get REALLY BAD before the average person would summon up the courage to take the streets or not go into work or whatever. People in the States are just too blasé, which has really helped keep the country stable over the years.

There is a chance, however, that things could get kind of bumpy in 2025 if Trump makes good on some of his more radical policy proposals. And, yet, it could be, lulz, absolutely nothing happens and we slouch into fascism with our eyes wide open.

Ugh.

But let me be clear — I think for marginalized people like the Trans, things are going to get really bad really quick. It doesn’t take too much imagination to see a scenario whereby somehow the Trans get stuck in all these huge camps that Trump is proposing to stick undocumented immigrants into.

I still believe that because of the disruptive nature of Trump’s fascist regime that he will ultimately be responsible for more deaths than the Nazis in WW2 — if you factor in all the simmering hot spots that might go nuclear because he decides to turn away from the outside world.

Going Forward Into A Possible Civil War / Revolution There’s One Thing That I’m Nervous About: The DPRK

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.

As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.

So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.

It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.

Better Living Through Technology

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re in for a significant “vibe shift” caused by technology in the very, very near future. This fact has gotten me thinking about how there might be some unintended political consequences to something akin to a Petite Singularity.

I came to this realization walking around Wal-Mart today. Imagine if instead of struggling to find a human to tell me what I needed to know, the place was crawling with one of those androids that Elon Musk is working on. Put Grok or ChatGTP in them and download the entire floorplans and the stock of the store and they could replace the humans that work at the store.

This might happen at an affordable level by 2030 — if we don’t blow the world up first.

But imagine if there was a sudden tipping point on the android / AI front and a lot of DDD jobs that undocumented people usually fill were done by androids. That might turn off the tap of people coming across the border simply because androids would be doing the jobs they would otherwise be paid to do.

Everything is so dumb

Also, isn’t it at least POSSIBLE that that, unto itself, might unfuck up our politics when it comes to MAGA and abortion? And if Incels can fuck a sex bot instead being idiots thinking women have a responsibility to fuck t hem, then…maybe a lot of the culture war fueled by feminism and a low birth rate….might just vanish?

So, there might be some upside to the rise of coming AI android overlords. Of course, this solution will, in turn cause the rise of an AI / android rights movement that I’m sure MAGA will love to oppose.

And remember, we still have the possibility of absolute chaos at home and abroad starting from right about now until sometime in 2025. It could be that just like how WW2 paused the development of TV that the coming Second American Civil War / WW3 will do the same thing with the Petite Singularity.

It could be that after about 1 billion people die across the globe — specifically and directly because of the actions of MAGA and Trump — and all that is sorted out that it won’t be until about 2030 that all the cool technological goodies that we’re being promised today will actually be rolled out.

Civil War & WW3, Oh My!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.

With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.

Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.

As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.

Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.

Welp, WW3 Would Be The Type Of ‘Black Swan’ Event That Would Re-Elect Joe Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why Trump lost in 2020 was something none of us could have predicted in the years leading up to the event — a pandemic. The pandemic — combined with how dumb and lazy Trump is — was enough to jiggle the political dynamic to produce a Trump loss.

As such, we may find ourselves with another such “black swan” event — something akin to WW3.

We already have one major regional war in Europe and a minor one in the Middle East — if the US struck Tehran because of today’s death of three solders by a Iranian proxy group, then, well, all bets are off. Because if, say, Iran used one of the three a-bombs it apparently has access to on, say, Israel, then, yikes, that would so destabilize the globe that soon enough the DPRK and China would probably start lashing out as well.

There would be a rally round the flag affect and, there you go, Biden is re-elected. Of course, if, say, the simmering conflict between Pakistan – India — China also got hot….things might grow rather awkward.

It could be that rather than the US having a civil war / revolution or turning into an America First autocracy, the whole globe just collapses into chaos and…saves American democracy.

It would be surreal.

What The Fuck Is Wrong With The Anglophone World?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It feels like the entire Anglophone world is in the shitter these days. Of the major English speaking nations, three out of the five are in some sort of long-term political crisis.

I suppose you could blather on about the “Fourth Turning” happening, but that’s just astrology for dudes who like World War 2.

It’s all something of a mystery. It’s entirely possible to imagine the US having a Civil War, Great Britain collapsing and Canada pretty much becoming a failed state all within a few months of each other.

But, for the moment, it seems as though it’s the USA we have to worry about. If things got really bad here, then both Canada and Great Britain would not be far behind.

And that doesn’t even begin to address how if the USA goes tits up about 1 billion people would die because something akin to WW3 would break out. The nukes would be whizzing around like crazy.

Could The Start Of WW3 In 2024 Be The ‘Black Swan’ Event That Prevents A Trump Win?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, malignant ding-dong Trump has an air of invincibility and inevitability about around him. He’s going to win and we either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we have a revolution then civil war.

But I can’t predict the future and there is always a chance that some sort of “Black Swan” event could happen that would give us an off ramp just like the pandemic did in 2020. Of all the possible Black Swan events that might happen, something that might be marketed as WW3 is definitely among them at the moment.

If, say, Iran and Pakistan nuked each other. Or if the DPRK went at it with the ROK that would be enough for the American press to say, “Buckle up, America, WW3 has started.”

That, in turn, would cause a rally-round-the flag movement (at least at first) and that would help Biden. A lot would depend on WHEN WW3 happened. The later it happened, the more it would help Biden and potentially allow us to avoid a dystopian hellscape.

I Fear A Trump-Induced ‘Great Reset’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These days, I find myself thinking of how there was once a point, I think during the 2016 campaign, when a rumor began to circulate that there was evidence of Trump using the “N-Word.” There was even a panicked meeting about within the Trump campaign in which one of his African American supporters asked, “Well, how many times did he say it?”

With that in mind, it’s clear that not only is Trump above the law in general, but for some weird reason his followers don’t have any red line at all. He could start to demand the right to sleep with women on their wedding night and his followers would, after about 24 hours of silence, have a ready set of talking points explaining why Trump, as a former president, has that right and why won’t the woke cancel culture mob let him do something so heterosexual? Trump is, in short, something akin to a God to MAGA, leaving us all to wonder if push came to shove and there was some sort of military action between Reds and Blues if we would find ourselves in a German 1945 “Gotterdammerung” type situation where every man, woman and child was willing to fight to the death for their big orange doofus.

All of this leads me to believe that, in the end, the real battle is who will be Trump’s successor. Whomever Trump picks to be 2024 veep is going to be in a prime position to be something akin to America’s Putin. And, given how bonkers Trump is at the moment, he could pretty much pick literally anyone, ranging from Gen. Mike Flynn to Steve Bannon. Anyone! It could get really dark, in fact.

We may all be Antifa in the end.

As an side, to think, at some point in the next 20 to 30 years, some very serious scholar is going to spend a lot of time writing a very serious, weighty tome about dingus Trump that takes him seriously, at last. It may not be an American who writes it because we’ll be an autocracy, but it’s going to happen somewhere. Unless, of course, WW3 happens it’s all moot.

Or, put another way, my prediction that there’s a real possibility that in the end MAGA will cause the death of more people than the Nazis did. If you factor in that a Second American Civil War would cause WW3, then that’s at least 1 to 2 billion dead right there. And I could see between 10 and 20 million American dead if Blue and Red started to lob WMD at each other in the context of a MAGA “revolution” or 2ACW.

Talk about a Great Reset or Fourth Turning!

Anyway, the point is, we live in the lead up to Something Big historically. I just don’t know if it’s autocracy, civil war, revolution, WW3 or some combination of all of those things. A lot of people are going to die because of a fucking dingus moron racist who is nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for white Christian rage.

And there doesn’t seem to be anything we can do about it.

Imagining The American Domestic Reaction To A Sino-Taiwanese War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to break it to you guys, but because the United States is tearing itself apart at the moment, we’re probably the weakest we’ve been in a long, long time. It has noting to do with Biden and everything to do with tectonic, long-term macro forces that are all coming to a head around late 2024, early 2025.

HT/ The Sun

In short, American politics is very, very strange right now. To be a Republican in good standing is to be a bomb throwing fascist who wants to burn everything to the ground. Meanwhile, to be a Democrat is to stand for traditional democratic norms, traditions and institutions.

Things are so partisan at the moment that Republicans have whole heartedly embraced the autocratic thug Putin in Russia and see not America, but the Russian Fatherland as a “shining city on a hill” that the world should attempt to emulate. It’s all very surreal.

So, this brings us to what the domestic political reaction would be to a war between China and Taiwan.

The natural inclination of Republicans would be to oppose any help for Taiwan just to be dicks. But the dynamic is a lot different between China and Russia. A lot of this is — duh — a matter of race. Republicans are fucking racists and see the “white” Russia as something to emulate while the “none-white” communist China is not.

But there is the broader issue of MAGA being extremely isolationist. So, there’s every reason to believe that if there was a war between China and Taiwan that MAGA would oppose any help to Taiwan, while at the same time screaming at the top of their lungs that Biden was “weak” on China.

Now, there are some meta elements to all of this that would need to be taken into consideration. There is a good chance that the American press would call two regional wars happening at the same time “WW3.” It’s inevitable that the American press talking constantly about WW3 happening would eventually break through into the average person’s brain and they would sit up and take notice. This would, in turn, change the political dynamic in the US going into the 2022 midterms.

Additionally, if there was a massive war between China and Taiwan, this would destabilize the entire world a great deal. Any number of other smoldering conflicts around the world would probably erupt into open warfare. I mean, who’s to say that the DPRK wouldn’t attack ROK if a Sino-Taiwanese war erupted? They might think that the US would be so distracted with two major regional wars that this might be their last time to attack the South Koreans. (But, admittedly, the DPRK is such a black box that anything is possible.)

If there was a war between the Koreas while China was attacking Taiwan and Russia, Ukraine then we really would be going to the show. It really would be WW3 and there would suddenly be a lot of talk about the for the Draft to come back in the US. Now, THAT would end the “woke era” once and for all. It’s tough being woke at 18 when you’re worried about dying in defense of freedom in a far away land.

As an aside, the issue of if young women should be drafted would probably definitely come up if WW3 started and we again eyed the draft. I think they should be, but, apparently, that is a radical idea to some. So, it’s unlikely.

The point of all of this is — if WW3 arrives, the US is so divided that I can’t promise you that we’d rise to the occasion like we did in WW2. And, what’s worse, if WW3 lasted until the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, there’s a good chance that we would play the role of the Russian Empire in WW1 and pull out to take care of our own domestic crisis.

Why Would China Attack Taiwan Now?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert about any of this, so all of this is very speculative. So take that into consideration when reading. This is more me just doing one of my compulsive scenarios than any sort of definitive explanation.

One minor point –the last few months I’ve been getting the occasional ping to this Webste from China. I always assumed it was people connected to Tik-Tok annoyed that I was suggesting the service could read people’s mind. But what if it was people with Chinese intelligence interested in the political state of the United States? If you are a regular reader of this site, you will know that I have painted a very dire future for the United States.

Another thing — I think we’re probably at just the very early stages of any point in time where China might strike Taiwan. It would make a lot more sense for them to wait until at some point after 2025 when America will either be Fortress America or in the middle of a civil war to do anything against their wayward sisters in the South China Sea.

And, yet, I suppose the case could be made that there’s a lot going on inside China at the moment that nobody knows about and, as such, the Chinese might attack now, rather than wait until it’s obvious the United States is falling apart. The only reason why I even have started talking about all of this is I’ve begun to hear a minor amount of chatter about troop movements in China near Taiwan. And August is essentially here as of this writing, so…bingo?

Also, I could see China thinking that Biden is so old and the United States so divided that it would be difficult for the US to have a comprehensive approach to any Sino-Taiwanese War. This particular situation would only get worse, of course if more regional conflicts went hot and an actual WW3 began.

Talk about throwing American domestic politics for a loop!

Anyway. I have no idea. But is interesting to think about.