This is curious. Apparently the Real Clear Investigation outing of the Whistleblower is far closer to the surface than I realized. Sen. Rand Paul tweeted out a link to the outing earlier today. Fox News has yet to take the bait as best I can tell.
We’re still fairly early on the process so there are weeks for fascist Republican shithead operatives to do oppo research on the Whistlebower so they can strike as just the right moment. They want the media narrative to go from “Holy shit, Trump did WHAT?” to “Holy shit, the Whistleblower did WHAT?” The thing you have to keep in mind is Republicans lulz the rule of law and are fully prepared to incite some wank job with an AR-15 to murder the Whistleblower in cold blood so they can clutched their pearls and say we have to end the impeachment process because people are getting killed. Lulz!
They want the Whistleblower to be what everyone is talking about, not Trump. They don’t care what laws they have to break to do it, either. They only care about law if they can use it to either enrich themselves, regulate women’s bodies or punish people they don’t like.
I can only suppose that we’re one Trump twitter tirade away from the poor Whistleblower being outed, doxed and murdered. Or, at least, being called in front of Senate Committee so Graham can do to him what he felt was done to Kavanaugh. Graham has been pretty fucking conspicuous with his absolute desire to reverse the quasi-successful Kavanaugh strategy against a Democrat. In Republican eyes, this would be heaven. If 35% of the population buys into the Big Lie that somehow Biden’s point-man on Ukraine conspired to bring down Trump, even though Trump did, in fact, break the fucking law on a massive scale, then, well, lulz.
Anyone who thinks Republicans give a shit about anything other than greed and power are fools. Republicans are fascists. Long-term trends are in their favor. At this point, it’s just a matter of the exact chronically. If we somehow managed to defeat Trump by convicting him in the Senate, we have — at best — one presidential cycle before President Kobach, or President Cotton or President Don Jr. finishes the job Trump started.
The only way this doesn’t happen is if Republicans really, really, really misjudge the situation and there’s a tragedy that is not only their fault, but they can’t spin. I don’t even know what that could possibly be — any major terrorist attack they would simply use as an excuse to abolish the Constitution or something.
Right now, deep in the dark bowls of the fascist Republican Party, an army of oppo men are digging through the bio of the Trump whistleblower. They know they have a deadline — when the House has its first serious impeachment vote.
There goal is to end stop the vote altogether or to blunt its impact in the eyes of the base.
So, here’s what to look for today.
— Does Trump just…tweet it out? Does he get really excited and simply start ranting about the poor guy the moment he finds out who it is? He doesn’t care that it’s against the law to do so, he may simply start ranting about it without even thinking about it. Remember, all that matters is power for power’s sake and messaging the base. Everyone, and everything, else can fuck off.
— How cocky are House Republicans today? The reason why I think the name is going to pop out far sooner today than we realize is it gives House Republicans something to pivot to whenever they’re asked about Trump’s many, many, MANY crimes. So, they’re going to either be really cocky or they’re going to be chomping at the bit to talk about the guy…which is why I think Trump’s going to make it easy for them to do it. Things may grow extremely surreal when what Republicans think is going to happen — that impeachment comes to a grinding halt — does not, in fact, happen.
— The public’s reaction Usually, it takes 24 hours for us to be able to gauge the public’s reaction. There’s a chance that Nancy Pelosi may sense some nervousness in her caucus and delay the vote — and maybe never even hold it. It will be just like after the “bad optics” of Mueller’s testimony . We’ll know Trump’s a criminal but there simply won’t be the political will to do anything about it….AGAIN. It may be she chokes for no other reason than she needs time to whip her caucus to keep going.
And, just for the record, if you’re some sort of dipshit fuck face MAGA person reading this gleefully — fuck you, you fucking piece of shit.
It appears as though Fascist Republicans settling on a very Putinesque defense of Trump going into the actual official impeachment process. Their messaging into this crucial moment in Trump’s administration is literally the “This is fine” meme. They want the average person to shrug at this egregious abuse of power because “everyone does it” and because Trump did not do something as explicit as the “smoking gun” of the Nixon tapes that, well, lulz.
There are a number of other related defenses involving social media that Trump-friendly people tell themselves to allow a good night sleep, as well. The chief of these being that only because of the excesses of partisan social media is what Trump even a big deal. Other presidents over the years did the same or worse and we just did not know about it or care. This plays into the Stormy Daniels playbook of scandal management quite well.
As I have repeatedly said, a sign that Trump is not, in fact, a political genius is how badly he’s bungling House Trump’s messaging of what he did. If he was smart — which he is not — he would take the L on impeachment itself and hang back for his acquittal in the Senate. All that’s required is a modicum of self-discipline. Don’t get mad. Don’t freak out. And don’t rile people up unnecessarily. Unfortunately for Trump’s allies, he is not known for have any of these traits.
On a strictly political level, House Trump’s, “This is fine,” defense, which aims to frame what Trump did as “bad” but not impeachable is a pretty safe bet. If you essentially tell people in absolute terms that in the end the interpretation of what Trump did should be done through the prism of partisan politics, then, well, Trump survives. There’s no sexxy tape of Trump saying something anything impossible to spin, so lulz. Trump’s acquitted by the Senate and free to turn around and do the exact same thing he was just aquitted for within 24 hours. He will be even more brazen with it, however, because when he inevitably gets caught AGAIN, Republicans will say, “You’re just out to get Trump. Let the people decide.”
And then Trump bribes individual Electors. Or the Russians hack directly into our election systems and change votes. Or Barr indicts Trump’s Democrat opponent in Oct. 2020. We will be nothing more than a Russian-style “managed democracy.” House Trump really will be The Thousand Year Trump and Trump’s vision of American Carnage becomes a reality.
So what could go wrong?
Trump.
While I suppose Gold Boy Jared might be able to stick some thorazine into Trump at some point, Trump is probably going to freak the fuck out at the prospect of even being impeached. He will become transactional with his Twitter offices, telling people what he wants them to do. When people start dying, Republicans will turn around and say, lulz, we can’t impeach Trump because people are starting to get hurt. While the prospect of people essentially dying to save the Dear Leader may make Fox News viewers spooge their pants, for a lot of average Americans who otherwise are raising their kids this would be very, very uncool. They are likely to grow quite alarmed and the pace of impeachment will grow faster, not slower. When the average person is shook awake at what’s happening to their otherwise peaceful nation at the hands of a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner, Trump’s fire break of public indifference is likely to evaporate.
Or if Trump goes batshit insane in a very public manner, that, too, is another non-political problem that Republicans will have to deal with. And they’ll defend it without blinking an eye. Trump shooting out a dick pic on Twitter. Or spewing racist obscenities during press conferences will get a big old lulz from Republican leaders. Or they’ll just not comment. If there’s any doubt that Republicans are old fashion fascists now, the fact that this scenario is, while worst case, is not really all that hysterical, gives a good indication of how true my assessment is.
So, as of right now, Trump is probably going to get aquitted. If you frame the facts of the case as an absolute partisan issue then there can be no other endgame. And there does seem to be some indication that Trump is finally letting the Adults handle messaging. Having said all that, there are also a lot of unknowns.
All I gotta say, is, for Trump to actually be convicted in the Senate, the bolts are going to have to start popping of American civil society in some rather unexpected and spectacular ways. We’re going to ender a surreal period in our nation’s political history when anything, anything can happen and does happen on a minute-by-minute basis.
The thing about impeachment is it’s not going to be the panacea for the nation’s troubles that “woke” blue check thought leaders on Twitter would have us believe. A prime example of this is Hugh Hewitt.
Hewitt has gone full Baghdad Bob on us. He’s all in with Trump to an obscene level. Hewitt is so willing to excuse anything Trump has done that obviously merits not only impeachment but conviction that it’s a little surreal. The true tragedy of impeachment is that Republicans like Hewitt are willing to destroy everything, EVERYTHING, for a corrupt fascist moron like Trump.
I long ago realized that just because someone can passionately articulate an opinion, doesn’t mean they’re right. In fact, that pretty much describes most of the thought leaders of the Right at this point. They are running on fumes, but they are getting really fucking high snorting thought fumes. In all honesty, I wish Hewitt would drop the facade. The distance between Hewitt and an old school fascist at this point is pretty minor.
The reason why this is significant is a lot of people within the center-Left spectrum believe that since we have Trump dead-to-rights that we can defeat him on the merits. They think that there is some connection between facts and politics. While this is still the case for Democrats, for Republicans, alas, that’s just not the case. Republicans are so wrapped up in conspiracy theories because it gives them a framework to articulate opinions that are pretty much justification for an illiberal democracy like that found in Russia.
And, honestly, this is going to be the case going forward no matter if Trump is removed from office or not. Republicans will stop at nothing to turn America into Trumplandia. They crave power for power’s sake and they crave obtaining as much cash as possible in as short amount of time. This is not changing, no matter Trump’s fate. We may be able to delay the dystopian nightmare, but we won’t be able to stop it. I say this even more so knowing that our best bet of removing Trump from office isn’t even what he actually did to merit it in the first place — it’s the possibility that he will finally fucking snap and go completely fucking insane on us in a very public fashion.
Though I would, in passing, point out that the obvious endgame of the rhetoric that Hewitt spouts is real, honest to God, death and destruction. There’s at least a small chance that they will get so worked up over impeachment that they really, really, REALLY overplay their hand and sign their own political death warrant…at least long enough for the browning of America to kick in just as the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally croke. But I don’t want anyone to get hurt. I’m content to see how far politics can get us in our goal of ridding us of the MAGA mence.
Or, put another way, Hewitt ain’t going nowhere. Even if we push Trump out of office, Hewitt and his ilk have crossed the Rubicon. They will welcome the dystopia when it finally arrives.
When the final history of the American Republic is written — and fear it will be a lot sooner than we would like — the end first came the night Richard Hatch won the first season of Survivor. Everyone was in shock. But it also marked the beginning of modern reality TV. Trump was the greatest beneficiary of that night, in hindsight.
Trump is the culmination of several macro trends in American political history. On one had you have the rise of Fox News. On the other you have how detached the average media person is from the practical lives of the average person in a flyover state. This is a side effect of income inequality caused by the Reagan Revolution. You also have the rise of social media. The massive flaw of social media is not only do the most extreme positions of any issue set the tone of debate, but it’s very, very easy for it be weaponized by an outside, hostile force.
Mix all this together and you find yourself where we are now. Fox News and income inequality in tandem caused a lot of Red State people to feel not only disenfranchised, but alienated from the media narrative that Blue State people were seeing. All of this accelerated in Obama’s second term as the lingering damage of the Great Recession began to sink in. Add to this just plain old racism being for political gain by — you guessed it, Donald Trump — and you end up in the situation we’re in.
In 2016, roughly half the electorate was primed for someone like Trump. This is when social media and the Russians kicked in.
So we find ourselves in a situation where many Red State voters actually are quite happy with the prospect of authoritarian rule. They can’t even grasp what the benefits of liberal democracy would be in the first place. And, so, here we are. It definitely appears as though there’s a good chance that impeachment in itself will be the final death blow to the American Republic. But I don’t say this as some sort of indictment of the process that may bring House Trump down politically.
What I mean, rather, is we’re finally seeing the fruits of a decades-long agenda on the part of Republicans. Even if Trump is politically vanquished, the Republican Party is now finally so radicalized that Pence could very well simply do exactly what Trump was going to do but with a more theocratic spin to it. And don’t get your hopes up if there’s a Pelosi presidency. Even that would be a delay to this process.
There are half a dozen would-be Trump successor on deck in the Republican Party ranks, from Kris Kobach to Tom Cotton to The Kooch. It’s a bit surreal to someone in LA or NYC the lengths that Republicans will to defend someone as demonstrably bonkers and corrupt as Trump. But that says more about the rot at the heart of our political system than anything else.
So, buckle up. My prediction is very soon we’ll have some sort of theocratic fascist “manage democracy”in the United States that will last at least 20 years. At some point at the moment when the youngest of the Baby Boomers begin to croke and the browning of America kicks in, there may be some sort of shift in politics. But for the foreseeable future, Trump’s American Carnage is definitely on track to become a hold hard reality.
I could imagine a few scenarios where this doesn’t happen quite the way I imagine. If Republicans really, really, REALLY overplayed their hand during the impeachment process and there was mass violence by people opposed to impeachment, then I think we might get enough of a delay in the march towards fascism for the browning of America to kick in. But that’s such a remote possibility that I just don’t see that being applicable. Even then, there’s a chance that Republicans would use the very violence THEY INCITED to do the very things I propose they want to do in the first place. So, in a sense, we’re in a no-win situation.
Some people — especially liberals on Twitter — seem to think impeaching and convicting Trump would be some sort of panacea for the nation’s divisions. While I wholeheartedly support the Senate convicting Trump, the surreal defenses of Trump I’m seeing are beginning to unnerve me.
The crazy-ass part of all of this is Trump won’t even take the L on impeachment and wait for his acquittal by the Senate. While a lot of observers far, far smarter than Trump think his impeachment but not conviction is a net win for him, he, himself, obviously does not see things this way. Remember, two big things are happening at the same time. Trump himself is growing hysterical about the idea of simply being impeached. At the same time, smarter people like Moscow Mitch are more concerned with simply having Trump stay in power.
Put these two things together and you have a situation where Republicans don’t care if the trial in the Senate is not seen as valid. They would rather have the entire nation sour on the Republicans in the short term with the idea that by the time the election in 2020 rolls around passions will have cooled and they can go about their business. Throw in Trump going full autocrat by that point and their decision to acquit is an easy one.
And yet.
I keep saying there is a very real chance that it won’t even be the politics of impeachment that gets Trump — it will be Trump’s reaction to the process. So, let me say yet again — in the end it may be Trump snapping in a very, very public manner that is his downfall, not the actual politics of impeachment. We’re reaching the point where Republicans are so detached from reality in their defense of Trump that they are giving him a political pardon for anything he does from here on out. There is simply nothing he could possibly do that they would not dismiss.
Things get weird when Trump starts doing things at some point where are so absolutely indefensible on moral grounds and his grasp of reality is so tenuous as to be alarming that Republicans may find themselves in a pickle. Their natural instinct will be to absolutely defend the absolutely indefensible. It’s just when Trump’s Twitter offenses become transactional, well, I don’t know.
It’s at least possible the idea of absolutely losing the general even if they absolutely win their primary becomes something that keeps them up at night. But, lulz, who am I kidding.
Trump’s probably going to nuke us all into a hellscape and MAGA people will be happy because they think it will get us closure to the Rapture. I wish I was joking.
I love running informal scenarios in my mind. All the scenarios I have come up with in regards to impeachment lead to one thing — the America we once knew is over.
I say this because even if we somehow magically rid ourselves of Trump politically — likely because he goes bonkers — we will earn ourselves only a brief respite from an inevitable descent into autocracy. The MAGA base will remain and half a dozen would-be younger, more passionate and organized successors to Trump will be waiting in the wings. And that doesn’t even begin to address all those young hack MAGA judges who will do everything in their power to make sure Trump’s vision of American Carnage is finally a reality.
What’s more, I coming to believe that the Republican Party will embrace impeachment-related violence. Hell, they may even do it themselves. Their partisan devotion to Trump is now absolute that the decision for 20 Republican Senators to vote for acquittal is now a very simple political equation. They feel the MAGA will support them as long as they vote to acquit. Republican Senators will believe time is on their side and independances will have forgotten their vote for acquittal whenever they have to run in a general again.
And, really, the only reason I think Trump has any chance of possibly losing in the Senate is his mental state will explode. He will have a very, very public meltdown as impeachment proceeds and there may come a point where his behavior grows so fucking alarming that Republicans will feel absolutely forced at last to The Pence Pivot. Even then, Moscow Mitch might feel as though he’s finally gotten as many young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench so, lulz.
In other words, we can delay the inevitable by a few months or years, but when half the electorate is MAGA friendly to such an extent that they don’t really care about facts then, well, I don’t know what to tell you. There’s going to come a point far sooner than any of us realize when leaving the country might be one’s best course of action if you’re center-left.
I love running scenarios in my mind. In fact, I’m kind of obsessed with it. When it comes to impeachment, however, as of right now it’s impossible for me to come up with an endgame. Both possible outcomes have such factual reasons for one to believe they will happen that I’m not going to try to pin down one. Here are both scenarios. You can figure out for yourself which one is more likely at this point.
The Thousand Year Trump
Jan. 20, 2025
Though it was an unusually warm January day, Donald Trump was, as usual, grumpy. Kim Jung Un had walked with him down Pennsylvania Ave in a spirit of world peace. Press Secretary Hugh Hewitt gushed on Fox News that Trump’s friendship with Kim assured “a thousand years” of peace and prosperity across the globe. Trump had finally bested all his opponents — even the Constitution — and was now about to begin his third term. Much of his the mid-part of this second administration had been consumed with a snap Constitutional Convention he had managed to force the convening of under the pretext of a Balanced Budget Amendment.
Of course that was a ruse. The Convention went rouge and radically transformed the Constitution into a Federalist Society wet dream. Among the many “improvements” was his personal ability to run for as many terms as he liked. Trump had weighed not running for a third term because of his age, but his ego, as always, won out. He did decide to name Ivanka his Veep and Don Jr., Sec. of State.
Trump allowed himself a moment of rare introspection. DHS Sec. Stephen Miller was now “disappearing” vocal critics of the House Trump on a regular basis. Miller was building ICE camps so fast it was growing difficult to hide the pictures from the People’s Assembly. The residents of some of the more populous military districts were unhappy, but they were always unhappy. He smirked at the notion of “blue states” and how quaint it seemed now.
Trump had finally crushed The New York Times when Peter Thiel offered Pinch an sum so enormous that he felt forced to sell. Though a lot of the more liberal reporters had left The Times, its new executive editor Maggie Haberman assured that he would get the coverage from the paper that he had so long craved.
The United States was now great. About half the wall had been built to the tune of a $1 trillian. The massive public works had helped ease the nation’s pain during the Second Great Recession. Trump was also pleased that the new Internet PIN was being rolled out. The Kurdish terrorist attacks in LA had helped push that measure through quite nicely.
Trump was at last a man in full. He had absolute power in the United States. He had founded a political dynasty that would last a thousand years. Occasionally Trump would, just to troll FOX News, shoot out a dick pic or tweet the n-word. He needed to do something big soon, Obama’s treason trial was about to be broadcast and he hated the idea of Obama being the center of attention, even it was entertaining to see him in the dock.
Trump was alone at last in the Oval when the door opened. He smiled broadly — Putin would finally get to sit at the Resolute Desk. Trump loved it when a plan came together.
A Dream….Not Delayed
Election Night, 2020
President Nancy Pelosi sighed deeply. She felt she had finally fulfilled her Constitutional duty. She had just finished a brief congratulatory phone call with President-Elect Warren. The two women giggle like school girls as the magnitude of the event sank in.
But the cost had been incredible.
In the end, had not been politics that fell Trump, but Trump himself. Though his mental condition had shown signs of decline before his official impeachment, his problems accelerated after the House passed the measure. Trump, in short, snapped. His tweeting went from objectionable to transational. He began to rant about the size of his genitals. He repeatedly told MAGA to hunt down and murder The Squad.
Republicans had, at first, simply either ignored the situation or said Trump was “joking.” This grew more difficult when members of the Freedom Caucus staged a putsch of sorts by rioting on the House floor and picking off Democrats they did not like with hand guns they had smuggled into the Capitol. The death toll was too large for her to bear to remember.
Though Republicans had attempted to message this tragedy as a sign that the cost of impeachment was too great and it must be stopped immediately, this is not how the nation viewed it.After the National Memorial service for the fallen House Democrats, the pace of impeachment accelerated rapidly.
In the end, it wasn’t even close. Trump was convicted by the Senate. He then held up in the Oval Office for close to three weeks. He was finally physically dragged from the White House under cover of night. Trump’s mental condition had deteratied by that point that he was hospitalized to an effort to stabilize him. Pence was president briefly until the outrage over the attempted Republican putsch in the House grew to powerful even for him.
But that was almost a year ago. President Pelosi had done her best to heal the nation. Her caretaker administration was a who’s who of people who had found themselves in opposition to House Trump. American politics was in total chaos for much of the presidential cycle with both sides struggling with how to deal with the sudden return of liberal democratic norms.
She sighed again.
The Union was again strong. The Republic safe, for now.
I’m all for dark, gritty movies. They’re great. I love them. But I have a problem with art coming from either the Left or the Right that is so drunk with its efforts to “message the base,” if you will, the producers lose sight of the goal — giving an audience a great story.
It’s because of this that I keep walking out of movies. On the Left I walked out of Olivia Wilde’s Booksmart. On the Right I just walked out of The Joker. I found both of them problematic to such an extent that I bounced. Booksmart was a self-parody of “woke” art. The Joker, meanwhile, was problematic because it seemed like a dog whistle to every incel within shouting distance. It made me very unhappy. So unhappy I couldn’t finish it. I barely got to the inciting incident.
But I will say the preview for Richard Jewell was worth the price of admission to The Joker. The movie looks promising as much for the liberal monkey show Clint Eastwood has assembled for his cast than anything else. I mean, what the what? What is Olivia Wilde doing knowingly playing into the worst stereotypes that people like Eastwood have about people like her. Surreal. I mean, maybe the movie isn’t what I think it is, but it sure does seem to be persecution porn for MAGA mouth breathers.
I think what’s problematic about these films is not even the films themselves — it’s fucking Trump. Trump’s such a divisive figure that he casts a very large, very dark shadow over pop culture. We’re reaching the point where a lot of influential movie producers are greenlighting movies that validate their own political views. This does not bode well for the future of Hollywood.
But who knows. The novel I’m writing fancies itself something of “pox on both your houses” allegorical tale. Yet I am also going way, way, way, WAY out of my way to ensure everyone — regardless of political affiliation — gets to have a good time. Even the MAGA people who I pick on by proxy will at least get to enjoy themselves as they hate read it.
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