Trump Endgame Enigma: ‘Jhi-na Syndrome’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I love scenarios. I love weighing different factors, asking “what if” and wondering how a number of conditions would work. Usually my scenarios are the absolute worst-case.

So, let’s play the “What if Trump finally lost his mind” scenario.

Here’s the thing: first, how would we know?

Trump is so conspicuous in his instability, that for him to have finally have cracked, something REALLY Big would have have to happen. I am still of the opinion that Trump is more likely to implode than explode and we’ll simply not see him very much in his inevitable ill-gotten second term. He’ll be catatonic somewhere, babbling about the Deep State.

But, let’s say between now and, say, mid-August, a series of things push Trump over the edge. A combination of a pandemic, a depression, BountyGate and maybe even his taxes being released, becomes such a weigh on his mind that he snaps. I think such a decompensation would come a logic trap — he would absolutely want to win and yet he would absolute know he wasn’t going to win. (Though he might never get that bad since it’s obvious the Russians are going to hack into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our fighting force out of Germany before September.)

Anyway, let’s just say Trump snaps.

I think a number of things would happen at the same time. A lot of things that have been rolling around his mind would pop out. He might whip is cock out. He might tweet out a dick pic. He might began to tweet out out the N-word to any African American who crosses him. He might simple begin to babble vulgarities at every opportunity. Or even stranger things might happen, like he dives head first into Tik-Tok and starts attempting some of the dances there. Or maybe he really, REALLY makes it clear he wants certain people “reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” He keeps doing this now and no one takes him seriously. What if he won’t shut up about it in a rather manic fashion for days or weeks on end?

The next issue is what the reaction would be.

Given how close we are to the election, initially, not a lot would happen different. Republicans would simply ignore the behavior, hoping it will go away. It would take a few days of some seriously disturbing behavior before the pressure would begin to build for something, anything to happen.

This is where things get murky. I can’t figure out how we would ever get rid of Trump, even if he was, say, going out of his way to start a war with the DPRK in a desperate bid to “Wag the Dog.” I might go so far as to say this crisis might go on and on and on and on for months until the election rolls around and, surprise! Trump weirdly wins anyway.

Then we spend three months on edge we try to figure out how we’re going to get Electors to vote for Joe Biden because it’s absolutely clear that because of a quid pro quo with Russia, Trump has illegally won re-election because of hacking on the part of Putin.

I guess the point is — I don’t know how we would ever actually get rid of Trump, even if he fucking totally lost his fucking mind and put the lives of 300 million Americans at risk. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

An Observation On Trump Scandals



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump has an absolute floor of support of about 35% of the electorate. He’s not quite down to it, yet, but he seems to be working his way towards it. That core support of people barely pay any attention to traditional news sources and, in fact, get most of their news directly from Trump’s twitter feed. They’re a bunch of racist, ignorant morons who are willfully destroying the country by supporting Trump through thick and thin.

This leaves people like me extremely frustrated because Trump is pretty obviously a Russian stooge at best and a Russian agent at worst. He has no traditional political accountability and as long as he has that core 35%, never will.

I will note, however, that occasionally he gets himself into trouble that lingers. He eventually peters out like all his scandals, but sometimes he screws up in such a massive way that while he still has that 35% of racist, authoritarian loving assholes, at least those people are made to sweat for a little while.

This issue with “BountyGate” is a prime example of what I’m talking about. While I know that barring Trump, himself, self-owning even more that it will eventually get lost in lead up to the 2020 Election, I find myself thinking about it all the time these days. I’m REALLY MAD about this thing and I can’t stop thinking about how bad either option is for Trump.

Either he’s criminally incompetent and his job or he’s a traitor. He’s going to go with criminally incompetent and weasel his way out of yet another jam, then get the Russians to steal the election for him (or he’s going to steal it himself by going after Electors) and he’ll be impeached AGAIN at some point in his second term, probably either 1 1/2 or 3 1/2 years into his second term. (I’m thinking it’s most likely to happen the same year as an election for various reasons.)

By that point, of course, Ivanka Trump, Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn will be his second term VP and we’ll be nothing more than Russian style “managed democracy.” (Ivanka would be used as a figure head for her veep Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn should she become president. It’s rat fucking like that that authoritarians love, love, love to do.)

Again, let me be clear — the fate of the Republic hinges not on Biden, or Pelosi, or voters. It hinges on the mental state of one Donald J. Trump. If he fucking loses his mind in The Night Of Camp David style meltdown between now and,say, August, then there’s a chance that we’ll at least punt the end of the Republic down the road one more election cycle.

Otherwise, lulz!

How The Trump Era Might End Rather Dramatically On A Political Level



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Trump is never going to leave office. And, really, there’s only one scenario whereby that ever happens for any reason — Trump finally goes completely batshit insane.

But how might that play out?

Well, the key thing to look at is his poll numbers. If there was, say, a 1-2-3 punch of a pandemic, treason AND his taxes finally coming out because of a SCOTUS decision, then, well, the stress of that combined with his approval rating going down into the 20s might be enough to make him snap.

Remember, the point is unless Trump, himself, causes his downfall, he’s never leaving office. With Russian help, he’s going to steal the 2020 election in a rather brazen fashion, cruise into his second term, call for a Constitutional Convention and simply be an American Brezhnev for the next decade. I believe that’s our fate as of right now. Like, 200%.

So, really, like I said, the only way Trump DOESN’T stay in office for the next 10 years or so is, well, Trump. And he would have to do it in a rather dramatic fashion. He would have to explode, not implode, mentally. He would have to become so absolutely deranged that it was a minute-by-minute crisis.

But there’s an added complication — the 25 Amendment is a dead letter, so even if that happened, well, nothing wold happen until the election and, well, lulz, he’s going to steal that anyway, so we’d have a completely insane, deranged president until sometime in 2021 or so. By that point, of course, he will have picked his new second term veep of Tom Cotton or Zombie Hitler or whomever.

And, remember, keep this part at the forefront of your mind: at some point Trump’s political criminality and his insanity may fuse into the same thing. So he will bribe Electors. Or attack them personally on Twitter. Or demand MAGA threaten the families of any Electors who refuse to vote for him, damn the popular vote.

There’s simply no political will to do anything about this as it happens. Lulz!

But I would, however, suggest you keep any eye on his polling. Not until he’s in the 20s will there be any semblance of accountability and even then it will be far, far, far FAR too late to actually help anything.

None Dare Call It Treason #Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


The issue right now is if things really are as bad as we fear when it comes to TrumpBountyGate, what are we going to do about it? There really isn’t much that can be done as best I can tell. We can’t impeach Trump again until well into his second term. He’ll never resign. He’s going to steal the election with Russian help.

So, I don’t know.

This goes back to something that is central to the Trump Era — Trump is his own worst enemy. So, really, if we have him dead to rights on this issue, the thing that causes some serious accountability to come to him for once won’t be anything but himself. He may finally flip the fuck out.

I don’t even know how that might manifest itself. I think maybe he might finally snap in a really crazy way whereby he starts to tweet out the N-Word to Obama. Or maybe he joins Tik-Tok and starts to do dances there. Things that are simply so outside the bounds of normal behavior that someone, somewhere, finally sits up and takes notice.

But I’ve been let down by Congress so many times that I honestly don’t think anything of note is going to happen. After a few days of teeth gnashing, things will gradually go back to a Trump Era level of normality.

I would keep an eye on SCOTUS and Trump’s taxes. If Trump faces not only a pandemic and accusations of treason but his taxes being forced to be released as well, then, we may, at last, be going to the show.

The Mueller Report, Trump’s Taxes & (The Potential End of) The Trump Administration



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I often wonder what would be the real consequences if we found out Castro and the Mob were directly responsible for JFK’s death. All the principals would be dead. It might be give closure, but in real terms, it would be a big meh.

The reason I think about this a lot these days is not only the possibility that much of the Mueller Report might be unredacted by a Federal judge, but the small possibility that we might, at last, see Trump’s taxes. We’re so close to the election and Trump is obviously simply going to ratfuck his way into a second term, I honestly don’t see anything of note happening if we learn the absolute worst about Trump.

I mean, if we have absolute proof that Putin has near-absolute financial control over Trump Org…would it even matter at this point? Probably not. Trump is going to have a second term, no matter what and, in real terms, Trump faces one real threat and one real threat only: himself.

The only way I see anything of significance happening to the Trump Administration going forward is if Trump finally loses his fucking mind to the point that he, say, starts a war with the DPRK or something else of similar significance.

We probably would have a few days of uncertainty if Trump’s taxes came out, but in the end, we’re just too close to the election and Trump will never resign so, lulz.

Darkness has fallen.

The Damage Is Done — Trump As Tyrant & Traitor



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It’s now rather obvious that someone like Trump was going to appear in the 2016 – 2024 time frame, it was just a matter of whom. But it’s also clear that the damage is done.

America is no longer a Republic, it is a Russian-style “managed democracy” and there’s no going back, at least for the next 20 to 40 years when the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America.

Trump is just really, really, really bad at being an autocrat, so it’s not as obvious what’s going on. But once Tom Cotton (or whomever) succeeds Trump, the entire state will be used to destroy liberal democracy in the United States.

I don’t have any solution. This is it. The end of America. The bad guys have won. Even if Biden wins — and somehow actually is legally sworn in — it will be just a death rattle.

The most current outrage over Trump knowing about Russian bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan is already blowing over because Trump is simply going to say he was criminally incompetent, which his base can accept, not a traitor, which his base likely can’t.

Get out while you still can.

Trump Is A Traitor (Now What?)



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m beginning to think Trump could confess all his criminality and STILL nothing would happen. I say this because right now, we have a confirmed report that Trump knew that the Russians put a bounty on American soldiers in Afghanistan and lulz it. Actually, he didn’t lulz it. He hugged the slithery Putin even fucking tighter by trying to get him back into the G7 (G8.)

So, unless something different happens soon, this will be just another one of those OH MY GOD Trump scandals that riles people like me up, but generally doesn’t get any traction beyond the Twitter liberal echo chamber.

The reason for this is, we’re so close to the election that there’s just no political will do anything about it. What’s more, the very thing that Trump did — doing some pretty unsavory things with the Russians — is exactly the type of thing he would need to do to get himself re-elected by stealing the election.

Thus, the future looks extremely, extremely dark.

Trump will steal the election and one way or another someone like Tom Cotton becomes president. Goodnight and good luck.

Wait, What? My Webstats, The Unredacted Mueller Report & Trump’s Taxes



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something weird is happening in my Webstats. When weird things happen there, I have absolutely no context. All I know that it’s happening. So, here’s the weird thing: twice in the last week or so, someone has randomly looked at some of my writing leading up to the Mueller Report.

I’ve given it some thought, and there are three options:

  1. Someone knows something about the unredacted report, given that a judge is looking at it right now
  2. Someone agrees with me that Mueller and Barr may have had a “gentlemen’s agreement” to wrap it up as quickly as possible for “the sake of the country.”
  3. Their interest in what I wrote isn’t about the Mueller Report, but Trump’s taxes.

My reasoning for the last one is this: if SCOTUS rules against Trump, it’s at least POSSIBLE that we could be in for a severe political crisis, so severe some pretty fucking surreal things could happen just a few months before the election.

I guess there’s a fourth possibility — someone knows something and they know that any crisis about the unredacted Mueller Report would be the first of Trump’s ill-gotten second term.

Some Surreal Possible 2020 Futures


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Here are some possible — but reasonably unlikely — bonkers things that may happen still in 2020.

A War In Korea
Weird things are happening in Korea right now. If I was the DPRK, I would shoot my shot right now, both figuratively and literally. The United States is not only extremely distracted and divided, it has a deranged bonkers Mad King as its ruler. If it wants to prove a point — any point — now is the time to do it.

Trump AND Pence Get COVID19
I don’t want this, but if tonight’s MAGA Nuremberg really turns out to be a strategic superspreader event, there’s a good chance both the president and vice president may be temporarily incapacitated. Nancy Pelosi would become acting president and for a few weeks and things would get VERY VERY SURREAL.

Trump Loses It
There’s a chance that Trump really will lose it and all kinds of crazy shit might happen. His criminality and his insanity might fuse and he’ll start to personally attack Electors.

Why Does Everything Have To Be So Dumb? #TrumpTulsaRally



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You could not think up a worst beginning for a catastrophe. A bunch of people screaming in an enclose space for two hours, screaming at the president during a pandemic. What’s more, all of this is taking place in one of the worst-hit states in the Union.

It’s all very, very, VERY DUMB.

And, yet, here we are.

Really, all you have to do is have Trump finally snap mentally in the next few days and you pretty much have the absolute worst case scenario. But that last bit is probably going to be saved for the middle of his second term when The Kooch (or whomever) is his Veep. Someone young, organized and capable of shepherding Enabling Acts through a Constitutional Convention.

Trump is just a deranged moron who is extremely lucky.

It will, however, be interesting to see if we reach any sort of acute crisis in the coming days that throws everything out of whack as we head towards Election Day. I do know, however, that Trump is going to steal the election. Autocrats never lose, not even a very dumb one like Trump.