Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.

Vibes Are Destroying America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can not stress enough how corrosive “bad vibes” are to the United States at the moment. Time and again, that is essentially why my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — are concerned about: vibes. They feel put upon and slighted, but don’t quite know why.

Mood.

Take, for instance, two important issues of the day — gay rights and abortion rights.

In both instances, I get the sense from my conservative relatives that the issue is more one of vibes than anything else. They do a lot of reserve engineering to accommodate their alarm over the “vibes” associated with these two hot button issues, but vibes are still what’s going on.

When it comes to gay rights, it definitely seems as though my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — don’t really have a problem with gay rights, they just don’t want to hear about it. They think being gay should be a secret shame that people have to struggle with, not something they’re proud of.

Meanwhile, abortion is pretty much the same thing.

On at least once instance, I’ve had a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — essentially say they just didn’t like having to hear about abortion. While in the abstract they are totally, 100% against abortion, in practical terms, I suspect if someone close to them needed to get an abortion for some reason, it would be dealt with in private — but it would happen.

Now, obviously, what I find surreal about vibes being a problem with abortion for conservatives is they fail to realize that abortion has always been a political firebreak for contraception. So, now that Roe has been overturned, we’re racing towards a moment in time when all forms of contraception, even for married people, will be in legal jeopardy.

But the problem with vibes is driving Traditionalists into the arms of MAGA Nazis at an alarming rate. And because of the hazy nature of “vibes” it’s really difficult to do anything about. The seeming obsession that the cultural Left has with Drag Storytime and that sort of thing that really riles Traditionalists up doesn’t exactly help the situation.

There’s just no solution, as best I can tell. And it’s only going to get worse one way or another. We continue to careen towards a minority majority nation and the basic tenants of feminism are here to stay. This happens as growing number of young men feel as though their traditional role as breadwinner is out of their reach.

And just wait until the Incel movement fuses with sexbots. That could be a severe social problem in the next decade or so — growing numbers of young men will simply buy a sexbot that they program to be whatever they want them to be, causing them to give up on women — and having babies — altogether.

The United States Has a Severe Problem With Corrosive ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is growing more and more unstable. The sad thing about it is, that instability boils down to something a nebulous and vacuous as “vibes.” Both Red and Blue have reason to resent the union that we find ourselves in. I will note, of course, that Reds are far bigger crybabies than Blues when they don’t get their way or if they feel slighted.

What’s the most surreal element to all of this is Reds are ascendant politically on a macro basis. But they are totally oblivious to this fact. They are so shortsighted and angry at any perceived slight — even though all the political momentum is on their side — that they’re chomping at the bit to start a civil war.

That’s probably the biggest mistake I’ve made when trying to game out potential civil war scenarios — Reds are acting irrationally. They have no political patience and they could very well shoot themselves in the foot and start a civil war even though they are well on their way to getting everything they want if they’re just take a long-term approach to their goals.

It’s interesting when talking to my center-Right relatives how they perceive the center-Left. They seem to think that center-Left people hate Apple Pie and motherhood. They believe that all center-Left people are gay or trans people who hate want to commit infanticide then crow about it on social media.

It’s deeply weird and based almost exclusively on vibes generated within the Right-wing echo chamber of podcasts and Fox News. (Even though a lot of Right wing people like to poo-poo Fox News, the network still sets, a general way, the agenda of the Right wing echo chamber.)

Anyway, I really, really hope that we just muddle through things like we always do (at least have in the past.) But I’m starting to have my doubts.

Too Many Center-Left People These Days Miss The Cultural Point Of SNL

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet ANOTHER sign that the country is tearing itself apart, the fact that Saturday Night Live is trying its usual thing of trying to threat the political needle is causing people on the center-Left to pitch a fit.

The thing about SNL — which is the Bob Hope of TV entertainment shows — is while it definitely leans Left, it has a long, long history of pretty much just picking on whomever happens to be in power. It’s just that Trump stirred the pot to such an extent that the two sides have really, really hardened their views.

As such, people who are too young to remember how things used to be, think it’s the end of the world if SNL features Nikki Haley or brings back the very, very popular Right wing comic they fired even before the season began a few years ago.

It definitely seems as though all of this is yet more sign that the greatest nation in the world is tearing itself apart over “vibes.”

The Most Powerful Nation In The World May Be Felled By ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about modern America is, ostensibly, the country is doing quite well. The economy is doing great. People are taking home more money. In general, we’ve had something akin to peace an prosperity for decades now.

But.

For a lot of people — especially on the Right — the vibes are “off.”

That’s it, they just in general don’t like the vibes. They don’t really have any specific thing that bothers them, other than a general sense that the evil liberals who make the “media narrative” are out to get them. That’s it. That’s all that is bothering them.

In short, a lot of Republicans feel like Blues are mean to them.

As such, they’re willing to latch on to the fascist movement that is MAGA because they want to “make America great again.” And, in general, they can’t event explain that that even means. You try to pin them down as to *when* they want America to go back to and they just stare at you in silence.

The reason this is is they know if they say, well, “X year” then people like me can point to specifically how that year sucked compared to what we have now. So, all they can say is nothing combined with a handwave about how mean liberals won’t let them go off on gay people, or whatever. Pick your scape goat.

It is that sense of the “vibes being off” that is pushing people who should know better into the arms of fascism. These Traditionalists conservatives often cite things like the 2020 COVID lockdowns, and people being “canceled” for being conservative or the “gay agenda,” but in reality, the just don’t like the vibes the country is giving off at the moment.

And it grows more complicated when you factor in how different Red and Blue sees the country. Blues are upset with the corruption and ignorance of Red America, while Red America just, in general, has a spiritual sand wedgie. I suppose you could say that the “bad vibes” that Reds feel come from the general macro trends of the browning of America and women’s increased sexual and economic agency.

Reds want dudes to be on top, butts in church pews and the nuclear family back where everyone gay has the good sense to be in the closet. Some of this, of course, is caused by social media speeding up social change. Some of it is caused by the “bowling alone” trend in American personal life.

But the fact remains — Traditional conservatives feel at a loss about modern America to the point that they would rather give up their democratic birthright to a fascist ding-dong than join forces with the center-Left to stop his tyrannical rule.

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. We have about a year to find out one way or another what is going to happen.