Tag: vibe shift

Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.

Chappell Roan Should Be The Breakout Pop Star Of 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If there is any justice in this world, Chappell Roan will be the biggest pop music star of 2024. As an old man, her music reminds the pop music I heard on the radio in the mid 1980s.

Chappell Roan

When I’m in a good mood, I like to think that maybe her potential popularity may be part of a broader cultural vibe shift. There are a number of other acts like IDLES, The Last Dinner Party and So Good who are bubbling up that seem to indicate that tastes may be changing.

It’s possible.

Of course, all of this is happening in the context of the rise of AI, Apple Vision Pro and the possibility of a fucking political “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025 and it definitely seems as though we may wake up at some point in 2025 to a New Era.

As I’ve said before, one of the biggest differences between South Korea and the United States is things change every day in South Korea, but take years and years to in the States. And I think late 2024, early 2025 could see us all lurch into a new, unknown world.

The forces for that kind of stuff to happen are definitely building. And the potential of Chappell Roan to blow up with traditional pop music may be a sign that such things may happen.

Is The Petite Singularity Near?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It will be interesting to see if just as the so-called “Fourth Turning” strikes the United States in late 2024, early 2025, so, too does a technological “Petite Singularity.”

If a company like OpenAI manages to invent AGI, then everything could change very, very quickly. AGI will have a near-instant influence on the economy because many, many jobs will be considered moot by the fucking greedy captains of industry.

It will be interesting to see how things sort out. I continue to be very curious about the intersection of politics and technology going forward. I still believe there is a pretty good chance that MAGA will evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that is against things like AI.

I do continue to believe that we’re in the middle of a vibe shift of some sort that will fully come to fruition — one way or another — in early 2025. I think we’re going to lurch into the future in late 2024 and we’ll all wake up in January – March of 2025 and realize a real sea change in both culture, technology and politics has happened.

Only time will tell.

Chappell Roan Is A New Madonna

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to say about Chappell Roan, but “WOW!”

Chappell Roan

I’ve seen the future of pop rock and her name is Chappell Roan to paraphrase the old quote about Bruce Springsteen. Roan is so fucking good. She’s a breath of fresh air in her uniqueness and creativity.

The only person I can compare her to is Lady Gaga. She doesn’t have the pipes that Lady Gaga does, but she can sing well and produce a very (raunchy) American Bandstand type of song that I remember from my youth.

Madonna 1984

Come to think of it, maybe it’s not Lady Gaga I should compare Roan to, but Madonna. I say this because Roan is over-the-top sexual and she has a very 1984 Madonna aesthetic to her. And Madonna back the day was more about dancing and lyrics than she was about how well she could actually sing.

So. Yeah. Going forward, I think Roan could blow up to Madonna-levels of success pretty quick.

The Advent of New Cultural Era?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re — a last — experiencing something of a vibe shift. There are a number of new musical acts that are actually, well, good. There’s IDLES, So Good, Chappell Roan and Olivia Rodrigo just to name a few who are really interesting and actually make music that serve the audience really well.

Another thing I’ve noticed is a growing number of young people on Tik-Tok doing “fit checks” where they look like a person from between 1968 and 1972. I haven’t seen anyone dressing like this out in the wild, but everything old is new again, so it seems possible that Tik-Tok might cause these isolated instances to spread across the country.

Chappell Roan
At the same time, technology is also lurching forward with the rise of AI and the Apple Vision Pro.

Put all these developments together and it definitely seems that we’re on the cusp of leaving the 20-odd year Post-911 era. A lot will depend on, of course, what happens with the election.

If Trump wins, there’s a good chance that there could be a rather amazing, severe break with the past one way or another. Either because we become a full blow MAGA Nazi autocracy, or, oh boy, we depose Trump then have a civil war because Red States get mad and leave the Union in a huff.

But it does seem as though the post-911 era is fading, if nothing else. The confluence of tech change along with cultural changes definitely seems to indicate that this is the case.

We Need A Cultural Reset

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know if this is the cultural equivalent of The Fourth Turning or not, but it seems like we need some sort of cultural reset. It we need to lurch into a new, more exciting future. We exist in some sort of luminal state whereby a bunch of old people control culture.

I honestly don’t know how to fix this problem.

But I suppose if there was some sort of Fourth Turning then once it was over and we came out the other side, we would have a new, vibrant culture again. But it definitely seems as though we’re stuck in a cultural malaise for the foreseeable future.

I also think that people aren’t thinking through how bad things suck at the moment in general. I suppose there is a possibility that technology will fix the problem. Some combination of AI and the Apple Vision Pro going mainstream might be the thing that prompts some sort of cultural reset or vibe shift.

I hope, is all I gotta say.

The Release Of The Apple Vision Pro as The Long-Awaited ‘Vibe Shift’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We may finally lurch into a new era if people feel comfortable wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public. The moment that happens, then the usual dynamics of capitalism will kick in and, before you know it, the headsets will start to be leaner and sleeker to the point that there will be a Before and an After.

But that’s all very speculative at the moment.

A lot could go wrong. It could be that a Second American Civil War / WW3 might break out. It could be that the Apple Vision Pro is all hype and, in the end, no one will want one and, as such, we will punt the dream of a vibe shift down the road another few years.

But the combination of VR / AR, robotics and AI all coming to a head at the same time is definitely the makings of a vibe shift in the near, near future. No one, especially me, can predict the future, so, lulz.

Who knows.

Better Living Through Technology

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re in for a significant “vibe shift” caused by technology in the very, very near future. This fact has gotten me thinking about how there might be some unintended political consequences to something akin to a Petite Singularity.

I came to this realization walking around Wal-Mart today. Imagine if instead of struggling to find a human to tell me what I needed to know, the place was crawling with one of those androids that Elon Musk is working on. Put Grok or ChatGTP in them and download the entire floorplans and the stock of the store and they could replace the humans that work at the store.

This might happen at an affordable level by 2030 — if we don’t blow the world up first.

But imagine if there was a sudden tipping point on the android / AI front and a lot of DDD jobs that undocumented people usually fill were done by androids. That might turn off the tap of people coming across the border simply because androids would be doing the jobs they would otherwise be paid to do.

Everything is so dumb

Also, isn’t it at least POSSIBLE that that, unto itself, might unfuck up our politics when it comes to MAGA and abortion? And if Incels can fuck a sex bot instead being idiots thinking women have a responsibility to fuck t hem, then…maybe a lot of the culture war fueled by feminism and a low birth rate….might just vanish?

So, there might be some upside to the rise of coming AI android overlords. Of course, this solution will, in turn cause the rise of an AI / android rights movement that I’m sure MAGA will love to oppose.

And remember, we still have the possibility of absolute chaos at home and abroad starting from right about now until sometime in 2025. It could be that just like how WW2 paused the development of TV that the coming Second American Civil War / WW3 will do the same thing with the Petite Singularity.

It could be that after about 1 billion people die across the globe — specifically and directly because of the actions of MAGA and Trump — and all that is sorted out that it won’t be until about 2030 that all the cool technological goodies that we’re being promised today will actually be rolled out.

Will The Advent Of Apple Vision Pro Prompt A Vibe Shift?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Is it possible that, by definition, the advent of the Apple Vision Pro headset could lurch us into a new era? While I have my doubts — the thing is still too big and bulky — just its existence does point to a possible New Era.

Apple Vision Pro

It could be that once Vision Pros are out in the wild, that that will spark a shift in the vibe and people will start to dress and act differently than they have the last 20 years.

Just think how different people in the 1950s dressed as opposed to the 1970s. Now compare that to how…same…things have been since around 2001. It’s all very curious. Other than technological changes, not a lot has changed in America except Reds and Blues hate each other to the point that we may be on the cusp of a civil war / revolution.

But, who knows. Some of why I think this MIGHT be a vibe shift is there is a fashion element to the headsets. But, as I mentioned, they’re still too big and bulky. They need to be a lot less conspicuous on your face for them to really take off, at least in my opinion.

The real issue is what happens when AI generated media gets thrown into the mix. Now THAT is going to be lit.

I Wonder What Fred Armisen Would Think of ‘So Good’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I understand it, SNL alum Fred Armisen is into punk bigtime — so much so that he was the drummer in a punk band for a long time — so when I heard So Good today, I instantly thought of him.

The only thing about So Good is the one song I really like “I Hate It Here” is so on-the-nose that it sounds like a song from the fictional punk rocker he created who was the only punk who liked Margaret Thatcher.

But, the I Hate It Here track has a very punk edge to it and it has a beat and you can dance to it. And, yet, it definitely seems I’m the only person in the world who loves it.

It’s a great song!