Tag: Ukraine

The Curious Case Of Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the situation in Ukraine is you just never know. It could be yet more posturing on the part of the Russians and it could be Something Big. As you may know, the Russians have begun to — yet again — throw troops at the Ukrainian border as if they’re about to do something.

While it would, on the face of it, make sense for there to be a spring offensive, that misses how small the Russian economy is in real terms. The Russians can want to eat up a big chunk of Ukraine all they want to, but they just don’t have the economy to support such a thing. And the last thing Putin wants right now is to destabilize his country even more.

I guess he might think a general war in Ukraine might bolster his support, but even if he got what he wanted in Ukraine, he would struggle to actually keep it. But there have been rumblings that it might be the Ukrainians who did a spring offensive so throwing that into the mix really scrambles some assumptions we have about any conflict.

All I can say is, this is something to keep an eye on. The situation in eastern Ukraine flares up every once in a while and so it’s possible nothing will come of it. But it is of note that Ukraine is one of three other potential hotspots that the Biden Administration is going to have to deal with sooner or later. The other two, of course, being Iran and the DPRK.

Russia’s Possible Coming Invasion of Belarus



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, I’m no expert on any of this, but I can make some general, educated observations about what’s going on in Belarus.

For a number of years now, Putin has had his eyes on Belarus. The difference between Belarus and Ukraine is the former is significantly smaller and doesn’t really have the centuries-long animosity towards Russia that the latter has. So, it wouldn’t be existential for Putin to swoop in and gobble Belarus up.

The recent protests in Belarus give Putin exactly the cover he would need to invade the small country. He would say he was “invited in” because of the instability and, well, that would be that. He would never leave.

There might be significant opposition to such a land grab by the people of Belarus, but nothing a big as what Putin would face if he tried to do something similar with Ukraine.

Since it is August, the shittiest month of the year, it would make a lot of sense for Putin to swoop in and eat Belarus. And, really, the issue for me is there haven’t been any reports of any major troop movements by the Russian military (at least as far as I know.) Putin continues to move tanks around the area, but nothing — not even a “drill” — that might indicate any large-scale invasion of Belarus is afoot.

That could change very quickly, however if things continue to deteriorate in Belarus and it appear as if democratic forces might actually win.

So, it would seem we have something of a waiting game ahead of us. It continues to be curious that Putin hasn’t done anything major with Ukraine give the complete and total pass the Trump Administration would give him if he did so.

What Is Putin Thinking? #Ukraine #Belarus


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Putin’s Russia is in real terms, the election of Trump gives us a real sense of their power as opposed to what they would like us to think they can do. Electing Trump was the softest, cheapest form of geopolitical ratfucking possible. It was cheap and nearly value free.

Meanwhile, two major issues on Russia’s border remain unsolved, at least to date. While Russia would love to gobble up most of Ukraine and all of Belarus, as of right now, they’ve just been all talk outside of moving troops around now and then. But current reports of growing protests in Belarus just might be something Putin can use as a springboard to taking the country.

Belarus is small and poor and Russia could probably actually gobble up if the timing us right. Not that it wouldn’t be pretty bloody, but Russia could swoop in as “liberators” things get too bad in Belarus and then, well, never leave.

One sign, at least to me, that Putin is quite confident that Trump is going to successfully steal the election is there’s not been a major land grab of eastern Ukraine by the Russians. Putin feels confident that ultimately Trump will leave NATO in his second term and, as such, Russia will be in a much better position to eat as much of Ukraine as it likes.

Russia is a unique geopolitical player because geographically it’s huge and it has a shit ton of nuclear weapons, but on the ground, it’s economy is so small that Putin knows he would just be setting himself up for his own downfall if he simply attacked Ukraine in a general war. Hence, Putin simply lurks on the border and waits for just the right moment to strike.

As such, it’s far more possible Belarus might be gobble up sooner rather than later than Ukraine. If that should change, should Russia rather abruptly move on Ukraine late this year, then something pretty fucking dramatic would have had happened to Trump’s chances of stealing the election.

I don’t see that happening, however.

Worst Case Scenario: The DPRK, Russia, Ukraine & The Whole Shebang



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things just keep getting worse this year.

The thing about war is one you let slip its dogs, instability suddenly whips around the globe at an alarming rate. So, in a sense, if the DPRK really did flip its lid and attack the ROK on some meaningful way, that wouldn’t be the end, it would be the beginning.

It’s likely several hotspots elsewhere around the globe would flare up rather abruptly and violently. I’m thinking Russia-Ukraine and India – Pakistan. Though India and China have been eyeball-to-eyeball the last month or so as well.

I honestly don’t expect such a dire situation to happen, but there’s one thing I know about the Koreans — however the two Koreas are united, it’s going to be in a really weird manner.

Like, historically surreal.

We under estimate how weak the United States probably looks to people like the NORKs. Whatever border goals they might have, now is a put-up-or-shut-up kind of moment for them.

I have no idea what is going to happen. But I don’t like how things have suddenly gone, if not 0 to 100, at least 0 to 40 extremely rapidly.

V-Log: A Dark Turn For The Trump Era #Parnas

Shelton Bumgarner

Some thoughts.

I Honestly Don’t See How A General War Between Russia & Ukraine Doesn’t Happen Very Soon

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m not claiming to be an expert on this situation, but I would like to note the following things.

1. The Russians continue to block the Sea of Azov to the Ukrainians.
2. The Russian Army continues to move into Russian occupied Crimea.
3. The Russians refuse to give back the Ukraine ships and they are trying the Ukrainian sailors.
4. Putin and Trump had a “quick chat” about the Ukraine situation at the G20 meeting.
5. Mueller continues to circle the Trump Administration.
6. Trump’s administration is historically friendly to Putin.

Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Is A Blackbox, & Yet A Trump-Influenced Endgame May Exist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m not an expert on any of this, but I’m pretty good at strategic thinking. I have the Ukraine — Russia situation on the brain, so here I am writing yet again about it despite my lack of anything to base my opinion on beyond the chatter of my Twitter feed. But having said all that, let’s take a hard look at where things stand.

Putin’s Ukraine strategy is a blackbox for a number of reasons, chief amongst them being, we really don’t know what his endgame would be should he decide on a general war against Ukraine. He knows on a basic level that he simply doesn’t have the resources to take and keep a big chunk of Ukraine long-term. So, really, unless there’s something going on we don’t know about, he’s probably just going to continue to fake us out on the topic. He’s probably going to continue to screw with the Ukraine government’s mind with no intention of actually doing anything big.

And, yet, there’s one specific datapoint that sticks out: Donald J. Trump.

If Putin had any dream of actually gobbling up a big chunk of Ukraine, he must know that it’s pretty much now or never. It’s like Trump is going to do anything if Putin attacks Ukraine in a big way and, what’s more, Putin could actually help Trump in a big way should he attack Ukraine. Think about it, first and foremost, the first month of any such war would suck out all the air of any other news story and it would be the perfect cover for Trump to fire Bob Mueller and pardon everyone he needs to pardon. Meanwhile, Trump simply doesn’t address what’s going on in Ukraine and NATO is left to send support to the now rump state of Ukraine.

But that still doesn’t give us any sense of the endgame. That just gives us the beginning of the story. But what would be the end? What would be the point, from Putin’s point of views in starting a general war with Ukraine. I honestly don’t know. So, maybe he doesn’t start a general war, but simply attacks Kiev, overthrows the government and backs off? He had his chance to do that a few years ago…and he didn’t.

So, I don’t know. Honestly, the only datapoint that points to any conflict at this point is Trump. Trump being a Russian toady might be the historical fact that leads to a war, even though I struggle to figure out what the endgame would be.

The Conditions Exist For A General War Between Russia And Ukraine

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me be clear — the conditions for a general war between Russia and Ukraine have existed for years. It’s just that in the last few days things have grown significantly worse, so much so that pretty much it’s just up to Putin at this point if anything happens. Let me explain.

1. Putin is corning Ukraine
It appears as though Putin is putting the squeeze on the Ukrainians in such a way that they might feel the only course of action they have is to attack the Russians in a big way, which would, of course, give Russia the cover it needs to start a general war with Ukraine. By “general war,” I mean one in which the endgame is to take Kiev and establish a rump state in the portion of Ukraine that could stretch from Odessa in the west all the way around Crimea then all the way around some more to Kiev.

2. Trump is historically weak
Trump is a historically weak president on a number of fronts, most especially Russia. Does anyone really expect Trump to do anything, anything at all if Putin starts a major war against Ukraine? There will be a major reaction by the Pols and the rest of NATO when it comes to sending arms and advisers to what’s left of Free Ukraine, but the United States under Trump is unlikely to say anything at all.

3. Trump’s in trouble.
It seems pretty clear to me that given the two things stated above, that Putin might try to help Trump by starting a major war against Ukraine, one big enough that it would distract people in the States to such an extent that Trump would feel comfortable firing Bob Mueller, pardoning half a dozen people and then hunker down for the House to officially flip in January.

Now, there are some major reasons why Putin wouldn’t do anything at all.

The biggest reason off the top of my head is while Putin’s forces could take Kiev in “two weeks,” it’s highly unlikely that they could keep it long term. It’s very possible that Putin has long ago done the geopolitical calculation in his head and he just doesn’t see a general war against Ukraine as worth it, ever. Even with a historically friendly Trump Administration in office, it just doesn’t make any sense for Putin to risk the existential threat associated with a war with Ukraine that he knows long-term could very well cause his downfall.

So, there’s a better than even chance that this is all nothing. This is just the usual geopolitical scuffling that goes on between the Ukrainians and the Russians and it’s all a big false alarm. We’re likely to know one way or another in a few days.

Armchair Observations About The State Of Play Between Ukraine, Russia…And Trump?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I am no expert on relations between Ukraine and Russia, but I do have an interest in it and a little bit of time on my hands, so here we are. Take it for what it is. Just me rambling in general terms about what’s going on.

The key thing, for me, is the dynamic between Putin and Trump. It would make a huge amount of sense for Putin to do what he’s long been interested in, taking a huge chunk of Ukraine (even bigger than he already has), and do it in a way that would benefit his best bud Trump. Right now, a lot rests with the Ukrainian response. If they simply declare martial law and, well, that’s it, then things will get and stay tense for a while but gradually fade back to where they were before today’s incident.

But if you really wanted to be paranoid, you’d say that Putin will see the declaration of martial law as a provocation in itself and respond accordingly. So, while Putin has historically show a huge amount of caution about any direct attacks against Ukraine, he might see the writing on the wall for Trump and decide he would rather strike now while he has Vichy Trump in power. What’s more, by attacking Ukraine in a big way now, he would likely give Trump the cover he needs to fire Mueller, pardon half a dozen people and tweet up a storm that “now is on the time to worry about witch hunts” as Ukraine and Russia have at it in a big way.

This nightmare scenario works on the pretty big — and potentially erroneous — assumption: that Putin is actually interested in risking his long-term survival in a costly, needless war with Ukraine. It also assumes that Putin’s weighed the global order and sees a huge upside in attacking Ukraine and, say, taking Kiev and attempting to form a puppet state out of a huge chunk of seized Ukrainian territory. The thing is — Putin has shown zero indication that he actually is interested in doing that. He just wants to keep Ukraine off balance and unnerved enough to prevent it from fully uniting with the West. Or, at least, that’s my personal interpretation of things.

If Putin is going to act, it seems logical that he would act almost immediately. Like, tonight. But as best I can tell, he’s not going to do anything and, as I mentioned, it seems like tomorrow will be pretty perfunctory. Ukraine declares martial law, there’s some saber rattling and…nothing happens. And, really, the only reason why I am a little nervous is the connection between Putin and Trump. Like I said, logic would say that Putin will attack now not only because he’s wanted to attack Ukraine in a big way and Trump is likely to look the other way, but a really big war in Ukraine would be just the excuse, the cover, that Trump needs to not only wrap up the Mueller investigation, but have people “rally round the flag.”

At least, that would be the miscalculation that might lead us all down a major war between Ukraine and Russia. Or not. I won’t even go so far as to say “things are in flux.” Given the existential threat to Putin’s regime a long-term occupation of a huge chunk of Ukraine would be, it’s very possible simply nothing will happen. Everything will be on paper and generally we’ll forget about the incident quite quickly.

But who knows. As of this moment, it definitely seems as though there is an outside chance it could go either way.

Watch Me Be Paranoid: Is Putin Stirring Up Trouble With Ukraine To Help Trump?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This is really paranoid, but it would make a lot of sense if Putin knowing Mueller is maybe on the cusp of dropping some major indictments in the next few days stirred up a major foreign crisis with Ukraine which would give Trump the cover he needs to fire Mueller and pardon everyone he needs to pardon as we wait for the House to officially flip in January.

Like I said, I’m being really paranoid.

This isn’t possible, is it?