Tag: Ukraine

What Would Happen If Russia Used Tactical Nukes On Ukraine?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve written about this before, but this time I want to be as clear eyed as possible about what would happen if Russia used tactical nukes on Ukraine. The first thing we have to figure out is, of course — why?

Why would Putin break the 70-odd year taboo against using nukes as a part of war? The key issue is — is Putin still a rational actor or not? Let’s suppose there was a method to his madness.

The thing that becomes clear whenever thinking about Russia using tactical nukes on Ukraine is it’s unlikely to be a value free situation. Putin would not just use a few nukes here and there, he would probably have to go all in, using a number of tactical nukes across Ukraine. I say this because any use of tactical nukes would be met with such international outrage that he can’t just give Ukraine a “love tap” and move on.

He would have to use tactical nukes to soften up Ukraine to the point that he could swoop in and take over the entire country without much opposition. Or, at least, that would be what he would be thinking going into the situation. Even Putin would have to come to grips with the cold, hard fact that if he nukes Ukraine that to wrap up the conquest of the Ukraine nation he would have to do a massive general mobilization of the Russian population.

We have to get out of the way the obvious — no amount of nuking Ukraine with tactical nukes would pacify them. The entire Ukrainian population would be in a very blood thirsty rage if, say, a dozen or so tactical nukes were used across their nation and, as such, Russia would have to throw everything it could muster at Ukraine to keep the country under its jackboot.

Ok. Now take a deep breath.

The thing you have to game out is Russia using tactical nukes all across Ukraine would not happen in a vacuum. Once the taboo regarding using nukes doesn’t exist anymore, then there would likely be a cascading series of events all across the globe in rapid succession.

Other nations with nukes would at least seriously think about using the nukes that they have to settle scores. As such, you could see India and Pakistan nuke each other into oblivion. You could see Israel and Iran do the same. And then, of course, there is the wild card of both China and Taiwan and the DPRK and South Korea.

Put another way, the nukes of nukes by the Russians against the Ukrainians would be Patient Zero of a nuclear-tipped contagion that would zoom across the globe at an alarming rate. WW3 would begin and millions — maybe billions — would die.

Another crucial element to all of this would be what would happen within Russia itself. After the shock wore off, I believe the Russian population would freak the fuck out and either a civil war or revolution — or both — would break out. And all of this would be happening in the context of WW3 happening.

There is the chance, of course, that the outrage over Russia nuking Ukraine would force the hand of the United States, especially if the world was already falling into WW3. As such, NATO might confront Russia directly in Ukraine and, well….I don’t what to tell you then.

I’m not an expert. I’m always wrong. Let’s hope Putin is a rational actor and we don’t have to worry about shit like this.

A Brief Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Putin Potentially Using Tactical Nukes On Ukraine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue when assessing the likelihood of Putin using tactical nukes on Ukraine as the Russian front line collapses is, of course — is he a rational actor? Is he nuts?

The reason is, if you do a strict cost-benefit analysis of doing something so crazy, it just doesn’t make any sense. While, yes, on paper, nuking a few Ukrainian cities would help Russia stop an epic loss of face, the reaction to doing such a thing would be so incredible as to moot the whole point of using nukes in the first place.

The Ukrainians, once they overcame the shock of it all, would be enraged and out for blood. And it’s not like the Russians could take advantage of having used nukes. They would have to do a massive general mobilization to follow up on the use of tactical nukes.

All of this would happen in the context of everyone being very, very mad at Putin for doing such a thing. The risk of civil war or revolution in Russia would increase dramatically.

But I seriously doubt we have to worry about any such thing. Even thought Putin was bonkers to invade Ukraine in the first place, I believe he’s still enough of a rational actor that it’s very unlikely that he would nuke Ukraine.

Blue & Gold — #Lyrics to a #Pop #Song

Blue & Gold
lyrics by @sheltgarner
Please give credit
if you produce or perform

seeds on the ground
tells us where the bodies
are to be found
the future is bright
after a dark night
in the distance we see
the blue and gold
the blue and gold
the blue and gold

blue and gold
makes me smile
knowing that
freedom is not
on hold
the blue and gold
the blue and gold

the sky is blue
the gold of the land
sparks what is be had
in a free land of
free people glad
to be alive
the blue and gold
the blue and gold
the blue and gold

(bridge)
to the east
the bear crushes spirits
it thinks it can make people tremble
but we all know the truth
free people will resist
with the might of a thousand years
of history and hope

the sky is blue
the gold of the land
sparks what is be had
in a free land of
free people glad
to be alive
the blue and gold
the blue and gold
the blue and gold

How The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Might Play Out


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a nobody. I don’t know anything. But I like to run scenarios. And I know enough about what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine to get myself in trouble. So, here goes.

Stage 1
I imagine what would happen is there would be a huge artillery barrage to soften up the front line. The footage of this happening would scare the shit out of the domestic American audience and be the thing that pushed everything else off the front page for a few days (months? forever?)

Stage 2
This is would be make or break for Ukraine. If after 24-48 hours of artillery attack they weren’t able to prove their mettle in the first encounters with the Russians, it’s possible the Russians might make a break for Kiev. The logic would be — capture Kiev and force the Ukrainians to sue for peace. If, however, the Ukrainians do a good job, then, Russians probably will settle for a smash-and-grab operation that has far more modest objectives.

Stage 3
Now we come to the stage where long term, the Russians just can’t win and makes you wonder what the fuck they’re up to. History and human nature tells us that even if the Russians get all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and all of Novorossiya as part of a comprehensive peace treaty after taking Kiev, there’s a good chance that there would be a long term pitched battle on a massive scale. It would be just like Afghanistan in the 80s, only with a huge population in a far more strategic location.

I’m at a loss as to why Putin can’t see the implications of Stage 3. It’s a mystery.

Better Dead Than … Red … Er … Blue?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to think that Republicans have some sort of huge civil war between its MAGA base and the pro-Ukraine Establishment. But, now, oh boy. It appears that what I thought was going to be a civil war may turn out to be more of just a drunken scuffle.

It seems as though the vast majority of Republicans are going to go all-in with their support for Putin. So, should there be a war between Russia and Ukraine the lines of domestic American politics will be pretty clear — Democrats support Ukraine and Republican support Russia.

If that doesn’t make your head spin, I don’t know what will. After 70 years of ranting about how Russia was a threat to the American way, Republicans are going to collectively throw in the towel because of a fail reality TV star. But, as iI keep saying, all of this is the macro trends associated with a declining empire paying themselves out.

Something like this was going to happen the moment Obama won a second term and white people began to freak out about their imminent loss of power within American society. (Something about Obama’s *second* term freaked white people out the way his first term did not.)

So, now, have a potential situation where the vast majority of Republicans side with America’s historic geopolitical adversary because their presumptive 2024 nominee has such a tight bond to the white conservative volk that they can’t dare cross him, even though his support for Putin is comically unseemly.

I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be really weird. But that seems to be the direction we’re going. If there are a number of miscalculations across the board, it could be that it’s THAT that costs Republicans Congress in 2022. (Though, let’s be honest, Republicans have so rigged the system at this point that they’re going to win, even if they don’t win. Or, they’re not going to lose, as is always the cause with autocrats.)

It could be that not even something marketed as WW3 can prevent our decent into autocracy or civil war and, in the end, our civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe only makes a bad WW3 situation worse because we’re going to vaporize ourselves into the Stone Age.

Dec 7th — The Day Putin Could Be A Real Dick


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything. I’m a nobody. But it seems at least possible that President Biden’s phone call with Putin tomorrow, Dec. 7th, is something of a trap.

Here’s how it would go: the two men have a phone call and it ends. Almost immediately, things begin to change dramatically on the ground in Ukraine. The Russians are in a hurry to attack for some reason.

Joe Rogan would be surprised.

They attack so it’s still Dec. 7th USA time and everyone blames Biden for screwing up the phone call on Dec. 7th, the anniversary of Pearl Harbor.

But that is just one possibility. More likely, the whole thing will be a lulz and we can move on to welcoming 2022.

A Major Russian War Against Ukraine Would End The Covid19 Pandemic Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not predicting that people will stop dying of COVID should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine, I am suggesting that our perception of COVID19 will change dramatically.

But one big caveat — I don’t think there’s going to be a war between the Russians and Ukrainians. Or, at least, not a big one. All of this is just another very expensive power play on Putin’s part to get a summit with Biden. He’s getting that summit on Tuesday and so, lulz, everything should calm down after that.

And, yet, let’s imagine that didn’t happen.

Let’s imagine that a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. We need to appreciate that it’s possible that COVID19 would go from being seeing a unique pandemic to a regular part of life — or endemic. A lot of this would depend on how big the war was, how long it lasted and what it’s endgame turned out to be.

But there is a finite amount of media attention. If the eyes of the world are on a big chunk of Ukraine being eaten by Russia, it’s inevitable that the sexxy COVID19 pandemic would be seen as simply endemic and something we have to put up with from here on out.

The only way this would change in the future would be if a REALLY BAD new variant of COVID popped out and we were talking about millions, not thousands dying from it at any particular moment.

I guess the whole point of this is — a major regional war in Europe would jiggle everything in a big way. Everything from the January 6th insurrection investigation to all of the other Trump crimes we’re looking into to the COVID19 pandemic would be pushed off the front page in favor of a huge war.

But none of that has happened yet. We’ll have to wait and see if it does.

What The Fuck Is Putin’s Russia Up To Around Ukraine?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Putin is up to something curious around Ukraine. The one thing I’ve noticed lately is someone has blocked the troop movement Websites that a lot of armature observers of this developing situation have been using to date. Which definitely seems to suggest that Putin wants as much leeway to strike when and where of his own choosing.

At this point I would like to point out that Stalin was a paranoid motherfucker with a lot of foresight — almost all of the capitals of the Soviet Republics were originally placed in geographic locations that are very close to the border of a sister of republic. I’m assuming his thinking was by doing so, if one of the two was in rebellion, the other one could at least be near the capital of the rebellious Republic.

So, if you look at the map of Belarus, the only thing that separates its border to in the south to Ukraine’s capital of Kiev is a large, long lake. So, if there was some sort of crazy huge war between Russia and Belarus against Ukraine, it’s easy to imagine a one two punch pincer movement by Belarus and Russia to strike Kiev.

If Putin really is preparing a open, general war against Ukraine it’s going to come a huge fucking shock to Americans. And, it has to be noted that in some ways a major regional war in Europe would help Trump a great deal and in another way would hurt him.

It would help Trump for the basic reason that it would crowd out all other news in the domestic news echo chamber to the point that a lot of his defeats about the investigation into January 6th could be pushed off the front page. And, the argument could be made that in the minds of most Republicans the fact that Putin waited until AFTER Trump was president to attack Ukraine would “prove’ that the TrumpRussia imbroglio was a “hoax.”

And, yet, such a war could also fuck Trump over for two reasons. One reason would that for a lot of the smarter center-Left thought leaders like those at Crooked Media and Deep State Radio, the logic of Putin waiting until AFTER Trump was in office to invade would be obvious — why invade Ukraine while your stooge is in office and devastate him politically, when you can just be patient and wait until he’s out of office and do the same thing?

The other reason why a major war between Russia and Ukraine could seriously hurt Trump is if there was a long term regional war between Ukraine and Russia then there would come a point where Trump’s absolute fidelity to Putin would bump up against the Republican’s historical hostility to Russians. And, that, might be the setup for a massive civil war between MAGA and the Republican Establishment to the point that Trump’s Patriot Party eats the Republican Party or the center-Right is simply hobbled for a few presidential cycles until they get their shit together.

In fact, sad to say, that’s one of the ways we could both avoid autocracy and civil war in the United States because if the Republican Party is too busy strangling itself, it can’t very well kill American democracy or start a civil war, now can it?

I Agree With This YouTube Hot Take On What’s Going On In Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The above YouTube video pretty much lays out what’s going on with Ukraine and Russia right now. The only difference in opinion between his hot take and mine is he seems to assume a war is a lot more likely than I do. I’m still on the seeing’s believing fence. I’ve been through this too many times to think Putin is going to risk it all.

But I do agree that the conditions are right for a major or “open” war to happen in Ukraine at any moment. And I agree with him that what Putin’s war aims end up being will depend a lot on the initial reaction of Ukrainian forces. If they do really well, then Russia will back off. If Ukrainians do really poorly, then Russians might make a drive for Kiev.

Yet, as I keep saying, if Putin is too successfully, he’s going to open Pandora’s box. If the central Ukrainian government collapses, there is no telling where things could go. If Ukraine has a fascist government hell bent on taking back all the territory lost to the Russians, then that’s a whole different ball game.

We’re not there yet. A lot would have to go wrong for everyone. I’m still mulling the situation. I haven’t made up my mind yet as to what is going to happen.

Why Would Putin Wait To Attack Ukraine After His Toady Trump Was Out Of Office?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, it seems as though Putin missed a golden opportunity to achieve his geopolitical goals by not attacking Ukraine while Donald “golden showers” Trump was still in office.

And, yet, if you look at Trump’s recent statements about Ukraine, one gets the sense that Putin had a very specific reason for not attacking Ukraine (or anywhere else) while Trump was in office. If he had, the jig would have been up as to how absolutely weak Trump was with Putin.

Trump was so beholden to Putin — for whatever fucking reason — that had Putin taken advantage of it while Trump was still in power then it would have been difficult for Trump to successfully stay popular enough to become the autocrat that Putin wants him to become.

Or, put another way, one could make the argument that Trump is too weak domestically for Putin to have walked all over the United States while Trump was president the first go round. If Trump had won a second term, then, probably at some point after he got his Constitutional Convention and secured his place as American’s first autocrat, THEN Putin might have attacked Ukraine knowing it would all be a domestic political lulz.

But now that Trump is out of power, Putin can attack Ukraine and pretty much it will be Biden’s problem and there’s nothing he can do in real terms without risking WW3.

At least, that’s all I got. It just makes a lot more sense to me for Putin to be thinking this than anything else.