TrumpUkraine – Page 3 – The Trumplandia Report

America’s Moment Of Truth In The Age Of Trump

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

One of my dad’s favorite movies is Mr. Roberts. The movie is about honor, leadership and the uses of power. As I reflect on this political clusterfuck we find ourselves in, I suggest you watch it if you’ve not done so already.

With that in mind, let’s look at the state of play in America politics on a macroscale with an eye to how history might judge us.

On a macro level, two issues stick out about what’s going on with TrumpUkraine.

Trump Is A Galactic Brain Self-Own Artist
None of this would have happened if Trump was, in fact, the political genius that all those access journalists who whisper in hushed tones that Trump is subtlety influencing middle aged white women ages 39-45 with his political messaging.

In fact, Trump is a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner. That’s it, that’s what’s going on. Trump is demonstrably a moron. Not only is he a barely functioning man child, he’s a wilful one at that. Would a very stable genius barely wait 24 hours after Chris Wallace cooed that the “bad optics” of Mueller’s testimony had politically pardoned him to call up the president of Ukraine to do the very same thing again ? I mean, come on people.

As I’ve said before — the only reason why Trump’s considered some sort of political genius is it validates the career choices of some very powerful people who can’t accept that if history is just right any old doofus can become president. If you accept that Trump is not smart, is not educated and doesn’t know what he’s doing and he still managed to become president, that might evoke a little bit of existential angst for a New York Times reporter.

That Trump would be criminally incompetent in broad daylight for years and it not be taken seriously shows some serious problems with modern America. If it happened once, it could happen again. If support for Trump among the establishment goes the way of the issue of Iraqi WMD, we are in for a serious fucking political problem going forward.

I say the following in all seriousness: the United States may have dodged a bullet not because all the ranting of people on Twitter pointing out the obvious, but because Trump is such a complete and abject failure at everything but being a criminal that people finally noticed — because of Trump’s own actions! If Trump actually a political genius, Trump would lay low until after his second term and THEN strike. But he’s a willful idiot and he couldn’t control himself.

The Crisis Is, At Last, Existential

This brings us to the other macro issue. This is where I grow a little sad about the nation I love so much. Trump is in trouble because we were so busy pinning all our liberal fever dream hopes of Bob Mueller — a lifelong Republican and Bill Barr’s best bud — that we gave Trump time to finally figure out how to use the levers of power. So, we were content with tearing brown families apart. A smash and grab tax cult for plutocrats. Dozens of young, hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench for decades to come. The list goes on. Nothing, but nothing stuck because we gave 35% of the electorate a veto over our political process. We were so wrapped up in intercine battles within the the so-called Resistance, that nothing happened.

And here were are.

We face an existential crisis at last. The lines are clear. Are we a nation of laws or not ?What’s more important to us, “owning the moment” or respecting the lives of those who have fought and died to protect the Union. I mean, hell, guys, Trump has openly proposed eliminating birth right citizenship — something a few hundred thousand people died fighting over — and it got barely more than a lulz.

I don’t know what happens next. I do know it’s up to us.

No one is going to save us. We have to save ourselves. If it’s not too late.

A House Trump Death Rattle (Maybe)

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m reluctant to say we’re in any type of late-stage Watergate situation just yet. Watergate’s conclusion came about because of a very specific set of circumstances that, because of a lack of precedent, we’ve come to believe is a forgone conclusion.

As I’ve written before, this is not 1974 and Trump is not Nixon. Republicans have no shame and crave power for power’s sake. As such, even though every other metric could be against Trump, Republicans could simply deny it all and stand firm. It’s hard for a liberal democracy to have a functioning Constitution when one of its major parties believes you can only impeach a president if they gain from it politically.

I guess what I’m saying is — the entire fate of the United States rests on Trump, well, being Trump. I would go so far as to say at this point it would actually be out of character for Trump not to do something so completely indefensible, so completely and demonstrably beyond the pale of any type of normal human behavior, that Republicans will find themselves at last defending the absolutely indefensible. If we’ve gotten this far into this situation and we’re not thinking that maybe the Deep State might be the good guys, well,oh boy.

In fact, I will go so far as to say we’re looking for the wrong signs. We’re looking for a major Republican to be Barry Goldwater. Nope. The best we can maybe hope for is a surreal version of The Pence Pivot. If Trump gets the whistleblower murdered, or tweets out a dick pic or tweets the n-word to Obama, Republican leaders will simply say they REALLY voted for Pence and why are you asking the question.

Even then, they won’t even hold an impeachment trial in the Senate.

Having said all that, I would like to tell AOC and a few other people floating around that there’s a chance that things are going to get so bad, so surreal that they are going to be given a masterclass on leadership in real time. I watched on 9/11 as then President Bush simply deflated. He ran away. The nation, for a moment, was leaderless. For a few crucial hours, Rudy was our president.

All I’m saying is, if things get as absolutely surreal as they look like they may, history is watching. They say one’s character comes out best in extreme situations. A few of our elected leaders may be given the opportunity to tell us who they really are, for better or worse.

But we’re not quite there yet. Maybe Bill Barr has proof TrumpUkraine is all an evil plot on the part of the Deep State. Again, at this point, Chris Wallace might suggest the “optics” on that one might not be so great for House Trump.

Maybe the Deep State is like the Second Foundation? Maybe they’re protecting the Constitution? We’ll see.

I Don’t Believe The Senate Is Going To Hold A Trump Impeachment Trial

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let’s be honest — we’ve reached point where Republicans are a cult. In their eyes, the only legitimate way to impeach a president is if they, themselves, gain politically by it. So, really, in their view, only a Democrat president can be impeached.

That’s it. A Republican, by definition, is immune to any Constitutional punishment for their actions.

So, you can pull any kind of reason why this or that thing might help Democrats make their case going forward — Mich McConnell is simply not going to hold the trial. It’s a win-win for him. Senate Republicans don’t have to defend a vote if it’s never held. And the move gives Trump free reign to help Republicans in the 2020 election cycle by doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. Bribe Electors. Dox them. Appoint Rudy as a Special Prosecutor to look into the Bidens. Directly ask the Russians to hack the election. Whatever. It will help Republicans keep the White House. And the base will be happy so they keep the Senate.

Republicans keep power, which is all they care about. They have no shame. None. Zero. They are completely detached from any form of political reality at this point.

Why this is extremely troubling is the Senate simply not holding a trial is sort of a Constitutional singularity in that it’s the point where politics and the Constitution meet. Even if SCOTUS tells the Senate it has to do it, McConnel could simply ignore them. That would be fun.

I honestly have no way to address this. If we revolt, Trump simply abolishes Blue State governments, purges Congress of Democrats and, well, MAGA?

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Does Rhyme: Watergate & The Fall Of House Trump

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Watergate was a national tragedy. “A long national nightmare,” as Jerry Ford called it. It was a tragedy in that it was the beginning of our modern political era. The Republican Party of 2019 is essentially made up of the the people who supported Nixon after the tapes were released. And so, TrumpUkraine is shaping up to be another one of those politically redefining moments.

A prime example of this is Kris Kobach’s recent ernest declaration that Senate Republicans should en masse commit jury nullification by pledging not to even hear the case against Trump. Such a statement is a savvy political move on Kobach’s part because it’s a win-win. If Trump survives, he’s a suck up. If Trump somehow manages to actually get convicted, he could very well be the core of the Republican Party going forward. Kobach has proven himself to be a lazy doofus when it comes to the hard work of politics, but, then, Donald Trump is a also a lazy doofus. Kobach really, really REALLY hates brown people coming into the United States. Given that the systemic problems that caused Trump in the first place are going to linger even if Trump is removed, he’s probably going to court the MAGA base pretty hard.

One of the things that has served Americans well is the stability of our government. There’s a little problem with this, however, we don’t deal with government instability well. We don’t have any traditions to lean on. There’s no precedent as to what to do when we have an existential crisis like the one we’re in now.

I honestly don’t know what is going to happen to Trump at this point. The United States is not a functioning democracy right now. In fact, the only reason why the system is fighting back at all is Trump uses his galactic mind when it comes to self-owning. I’m reluctant to say we’re in that weird period of time before a president unexpectedly leaves office because it’s only happened once, in 1974. That’s the only historical guide we have as to how the system would work.

But, let’s sketch out some sort of scenario. Trump is never going to resign. In fact, he’s more likely to start a war than resign. Yet, suppose he is convicted. The first problem is getting him physically out of the White House. I’ve written about this scenario before some time ago and it’s not pretty. It would be a 9/11-level crisis for the United States. In fact, it would be if the OJ trial had a baby with 9/11. The reason is, it wouldn’t happen in hours, it could happen for weeks. I mean, Trump is demonstrably bonkers and has a twitter feed, what’s to stop him from telling the MAGA base to gather up their AR-15s and surround the White House? Then what?

At this point, we have to bring up House Trump. However Trump might finally leave office, he’s not going to go willingly. He’s going to demand a pound of political flesh. The most obvious expression of this is who would replace Pence as veep. Don Jr. is simply too much like his dad to fill the position, even though he’s got a serious clam to it. The base loves him and the Senate Republicans would approve him in a heartbeat. It just seems more politically likely, from a macro political standpoint that it would be Ivanka Trump who would play the role of Nelson Rockefeller. Jerry Ford was seen as a partisan hack when got the job of president. Really, at this point, that Republicans haven’t done The Pence Pivot is beginning to seem a bit surreal. Under all conventional political metrics you might use, Trump’s goose is cooked. Pence is a traditional politicians who is willing to at least play lip service to traditional democratic norms. That The Pence Pivot hasn’t begun to be formulated this far into the game is a very bad sign. That means Republicans are willing to ride the MAGA pony all the way to the bottom.

But anyway, back to Ivanka. Nikki Haley may think she has a claim to be Pence’s VP, but…no. It’s going to be a member of House Trump. Ivanka is so much like Nelson Rockefeller that it’s almost as if we’re going simply use the Watergate final days as the basis for a reboot. The only problem with using her to maintain House Trump’s connection to the White House is there’s a good chance not only would the MAGA base sour on her immediately, but everyone else would hate her for being complicit.

We’re still not really into this crisis yet. There aren’t enough datapoints to make any kind of serious scenario about Trump’s fate. But I will say tentatively things aren’t looking good for The Thousand Year Trump.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer working on his first novel. It’s meant to be an allegory for the Trump Era. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com. He welcomes your comments as long as they’re not insane.

Republicans Are Careening Towards Only One Option In Their Defense Of Trump: Being A Cult

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m going to work with what I know as of the time I write this. Things are growing so extenstially bad for the Republican Party, I’m growing nervous that Bill Barr is Q and he’s going to jump out at some point and say “babbabooy.”

That that is growing to become the only good scenario for Republicans is very bad news. But let’s go through what I can tell of existing Republican defenses of Trump.

This Is A Deep State Attack
Their argument is none of this is valid because it’s a partisan attack on the president orchestrated by a deep state operative with a grudge against the president. It’s based on “hearsay.” Ok, this argument is bad for Republicans because it doesn’t really do what they need it to do — own the moment. Much of the complaint itself is being proven correct from other sources. And even if you could prove any sort of partisan motive does that mitigate what Trump actually did? If a Democrats sees a Republican murder someone, we don’t prosecute the Republican because the Democrat might gain a political advantage?

The Bidens Are Corrupt
While House Trump is great at branding, their ability to use their usual mind fucks on us is beginning to unravel a little bit. What they want to do is recreate the conditions of 2016 with 2020. But things are moving fast with TrumpUkraine. We’re pretty much in a political war and that particular type of messaging only works in political peacetime. If every time you get asked about TrumpUkraine you pivot to a non-existent scandal involving the Bidens, you got a problem. The sheer astonishing scope of the TrumpUkraine criminality overshadows anything the Bidens might be accused of doing. Again, if you commit a bigger crime to look into someone else’s crime, you still committed a crime.

Fuck You, The Base Loves Trump
If we get down to this argument, then the next step is The Pence Pivot. This argument removes any pretence of working within the bounds of a liberal democracy with a social contract and civil society. This is when the wheels fly off and we go from a pitched battle to all out political civil war. In a sense, this is something that the average person doesn’t realize. Something about Obama’s second term drove the Republican Party completely insane. It has no shame and it craves power for power’s sake. As such, if they run out of arguments, they simply deny that there are any arguments that they will listen to. The only reason why this might not work is if things have gotten this bad, Trump will be at the point in his cognitive decline where he’s tweeting out dick picks and tweeting out the n-word to Obama.

After that, it’s The Pence Pivot. They stop talking about Trump altogether and simply say they really voted for Pence. Though, in a sense, Trump will have lost the mandate of heaven even with Republicans, they will still support Trump staying in office. They just will talk about Pence whenever he comes up.

Honest Question: Why Is Bill Barr Still A Free Man?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

What the fuck is going on with Attorney General Bill Barr? He’s in the middle of a criminal conspiracy disguised as a the Executive Branch and…nothing. No one seems to be calling for his resignation. It’s like since Rudy is the lightning rod, Barr is free to go about his business being the demonstrably deeply criminal leader of the Justice Department.

There’s one specific issue I would like to be looked in — what was the exact sequence of events that led Bob Mueller to end his investigation into the firing of James Comey? Something about that particular event doesn’t smell right. One thing about Mueller is he became an avatar for a lot of liberal rag against the Trump Administration. We imbued him with a lot of qualies that he may — or may not — actually possess. He’s a lifelong Republican and Bill Barr’s friend.

Given the sheer depth of criminal behavior that Barr has presided over at the Justice Department, that makes me wonder that maybe he might have suggested Mueller wrap things up in time for Trump to start is 2020 re-election campaign. It’s pretty conspicuous how Mueller fell on his sword for Trump in any number of different ways. A lot of avenues of investigation simply were not looked into.

People who seemed bound to get indicted never were. I mean, Don Jr. is just as conspicuous in his conspicuous need to commit crimes as his father. I have no idea what happened, but it seems like now that it’s clear that Trump’s running the Executive Branch like a mafia don that maybe someone should look into that.

Barr has already done enough to warrant him being in jail for contempt of Congress. If I was going to use the House’s inherent contempt powers, Barr is the guy I would use it on. That guy needs to suffer politically somehow. He needs to experience some sort of consequences for his behavior.

The Executive Branch Of The United States Is A Criminal Enterprise

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We’ve always suspected Trump Org was essentially a criminal syndicate, but the recent whistleblower revelations make it clear that as my mom would say — you take yourself wherever you go. The sheer breath of the criminal activity that’s taking place in the Executive Branch right now is astonishing. And just think how bad it will get if we aren’t able to remove Trump from office.

What’s more, that House Trump is so detached from the regular methods of governance that they would release what they did the last few days is pretty telling — and astonishing. They are completely devoid of any sense of public service. The entire Executive Branch is full of craven criminals who don’t even realize how criminal they are.

Again, as I’ve said, there are some pretty big existential issues at stake. If we can’t remove Trump, there are no assurances that there will be a free and fair election in 2020. In other words, a fish rots from its head. We have to slice the boil of this systemic criminality by removing Trump as quickly as possible.

Really, in a sense, we have our fate in our owns hands. We need to do some triage. The conditions that caused Trump’s rise will remain. But we can address those issues when we are forced to get them again.

The Existential Case For Removing Trump Immediately

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The reason why removing Trump immediately is so absolutely important — existential, even — is one very troubling fact; Trump called the president of Ukraine the day after he was given a political pardon by the “poor optics” of Bob Mueller’s testimony to Congress.

That act, in itself, requires we remove Trump from office within days, not months. In fact, if I was in charge of messaging for Congressional Democrats that’s the one point I would never shut up about. If you talked to a Democrat in Congress, you would here that mentioned at some point during the interview.

The reason why that particular point is so absolutely important is it’s a simple way to explain, in political terms, the gravity of what’s going on. If Trump was some sort of political genius, the last thing he would do it wait about 24 hours to actively commit the very crime that consumed the first two years of his presidency. It’s a very relatable insight into the dark recesses of who Trump is as a person. It’s this specific datapoint that elevates a partisan political issue into a human existential one.

I mean, if you had a buddy who pull such a stunt, you would likely able him as toxic and lowly ease him out of your life. To have someone with such a mentality as the leader of the free world is absolutely, existentially unacceptable.

It proves that if you don’t remove Trump, then, well, there is pretty much no opportunity to have a free and fair election in 2020. Within 24 hours of being acquitted in the Senate, Trump is likely be even more brazen and emboldened. As such, it’s a lot like the Losers in IT and the silver bullets they hand-made. They believed they would work and then they missed.

In fact, another avenue of messaging for Democrats is to never shut up about the existential nature of what’s going on. Impeachment is a painfully slow process in the era of social media and as such messaging is absolutely, deathly critical. You have to keep reminding the populist hoards on Twitter what the stakes are. You throw everything you have at this particular aspect of the situation.

The reason is, House Trump wants this to be strictly political issue. If it’s a political issue, they win. No question. If it’s framed as a matter of politics, there’s no question Trump is acquitted so he can continue to running the Executive just like TrumpOrg — like a criminal enterprise.

Framing what’s happening as existential to the average American also keeps people entertained. If you manged to convince them this is The Stand of American history, then you keep interest and momentum. If it’s seen as a political matter, given how long it will take, then Mich McConnell won’t even actually hold the impeachment proceedings in the Senate.

Now, there’s one element to all of this that absolutely has to be at the forefront of your mind going forward. Trump is nothing more than malevolent version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner. What’s more, he’s not only the master of the self-own, he’s likely to grow more and more erratic as the pressure of the House impeachment inquiry moves forward. So, really, that’s a part of this that simply can’t be predicted.

It’s very possible that just as McConnell is about to dismiss the whole thing in a wave of his partisan hand, Trump will tweet out a dick pic. I’m not kidding it really is possible at this point. The man is not well and the entire journalist ecosystem is complicit in hiding it.

Anyway, I am very ambivalent about Trump’s fate right now. It’s just going to take too long. Trump will be able to control the narrative and that will be that. But, like I said, he’s not only got some sort of degenerative mental issues going on, he’s the master of the self-own.

Impeachment State Of Play For The Morning Of Sept. 26, 2019

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

While it’s reasonable to assume that Trump will life to fight another day, there are at least a few warning signs that might trouble the administration. What House Trump believes, apparently, is once they get all the information out that this scandal will go the way of Storm Daniels and all the others. People will process it, see it through the lens of partisan politics and that will be that.

To be honest, that’s a bet I would be willing to take. All they have to do is slow walk this and they win. Once they win, they can do exactly what they had planned to do in the first place — win dirty, but win — and we wake up in a Russian style “managed democracy.”

Really, the only reason why there’s a hint the strategy might not work is Trump himself. It’s difficult to “own the moment” when your arguments are so demonstrably completely disconnected to self-evident reality that people begin to notice.

It is at least possible that Republicans might find themselves beginning to do a modicum of self-reflection. This would be the first stage of The Pence Pivot. That Pence is beginning to be implicated in this scandal is not of immediate concern. Republicans got their smash and grab plutocrat tax cut and they got an enormous amount of young hack judges on the Federal bench. They would know that while Pence has no shame just like Trump, he is at least stable and a more traditional politician. As such, in the unlikely event that Trump goes so beyond the pale that they see their own political fortunes in jeopardy, they will simply do The Pence Pivot and move on. They’ll start talking about the need to cut entitlements because of the ballooning budget deficit. That they were directly responsible for that budget deficit is of no concern.

What people on Twitter too often are oblivious to is there’s a reason why Trump has such cult-like hold on the Republicans — he’s extremely popular among angry white men. Trump has so played to the base — pretty sees them as his only audience — that what he says can come off as pretty bonkers. But if you see him as always talking to the base, all the bizzare things he says and does make total sense.

Therefore, really, relative to House Trump, talking to a foreign power to get dirt on his opponent shouldn’t be a big deal for him politically. The dynamic of the Stormy Daniels scandal is identical, the only difference being the severity of the crime. Two things make this crime different. It’s existential and its simple to understand.

Add to this how fast the story is moving and the tried and true Stormy Daniels mindfucks don’t work. What’s even more interesting is Trump is obviously not taking this story seriously. I think he’s bought into the idea presented by political pundits that this will be a net win for him. When begins to believe it isn’t then things go to the next level.

Trump would then start a war. Or begin to directly tell the MAGA faithful to take active measures to defend him. That he hasn’t done this yet is curious. Either it’s a sign he’s really out of it mentally or he simply believes he can ride this out on the power of the Trump cult of personality. A cornered Trump will have no compunction about burning the country to the ground to save himself.

What happens next, I don’t know. Whatever happens, we’re in a new era, for better or worse.

Contemplating The Possibility of President Nancy Pelosi

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The reasons why I think it’s even remotely possible that not just Trump but Pence might abruptly leave office are Trump is likely to lose his mind as the impeachment process proceeds and the sheer magnitude and brazen nature of what’s going on with House Trump.

While Trump going bonkers in the near future is pretty likely, the idea that political gravity might suddenly and abruptly snap into place is also something to at least mull. That not only Trump, but Barr and Rudy are implicated in this scandal is bad enough. But Pence in his craven desire to suck up to Trump is beginning to become to become implicated in this mess as well.

One thing that is curious is how often Barr keeps popping up in this self-own by Trump and how little political damage has resulted. No calls for resignation and barely even calls for him to recuse himself. So, for the time being, it appears Barr is pretty immune to the fate of Nixon’s attorney general John Mitchell.

But there may come a point when some pretty basic problems with what’s going on within House Trump become so existential and conspicuous that not even the abject refusal of Republicans to admit that Trump has ever committed any crimes at all might not be enough. It could all blow up in a surreal, spectacular fashion that would be the political equivalent of slicing a very painful boil.

Before you get too excited, let me point out the obvious. The specific set of events that would cause both Trump and Pence to leave office fast enough to cause Pelosi to become president are pretty damn near impossible. I say this because the position of veep under Pence will be highly coveted and Republicans are likely to fill it with lightning speed. It could be Don Jr. or Ivanka or Nikki Haley. So whatever forced Pence out of power would have to be swift. I just don’t see that happen. Pence is far more likely to be Jerry Ford. 2.0 than simply a historical speedbump.

Just for fun, though, let’s imagine President Pelosi. Pelosi is seen as satan by much of the Republican Party. She’s hated so much that a lot of moderate Democrats see her as a liability. So, I would suspect she would be a caretaker president. She would simply right the ship of state while the 2020 election campaign was taking place.

We would likely have a repeat of 2016, only maybe a little less “colludy.” All of the problems that existed in 2016 would resurface. And, remember, Ford only BARELY lost in 1976. He would have won if he had been a bit more politically adept in selling the Nixon pardon and had Reagan not come so close to defeating him at the convention.

As such, it’s pretty possible that having a controversial Democratic (and female) president on election day 2020 would help Republicans and we’d be right back where we were. Our republic is barely functioning. Barely. And, to date, I have not seen any indication that we’re going to have the political will needed to face how astonishingly corrupt House Trump is.

So, for the time being, this is simply a liberal fever dream.

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