Tag: Trump Was Just Joking

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, two facts are heading towards each other. On one hand, it definitely seems as though we may see unprecedented numbers of people vote in this election. On the other hand — autocrats never lose.

Add to this my personal belief that Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German, and you have the makings of a massive clusterfuck — The Big Ugly.

Or, put another way, come January 20th, 2021, Trump is getting sworn in for a second term, no matter what. Even if it means we have dueling swearing in ceremonies and the country implodes. Even if Trump loses in a landslide, he’s going to sue everything and everyone in the way of his victory and he will win 5-4 or 6-3 at SCOTUS.

This is going to happen even if a sizable chunk of the Republican Establishment publically tells Trump to cool it and to leave office.

It’s just not going to happen.

I say this because Trump knows he’s probably got a real risk of being indicted if he ever leaves office. And the Russians have him by the short ones, so he has every reason to destroy the country before leaving office. And he has Bill Barr to make sure all this troubles go away.

The more difficult it becomes for TrumpBarr to stay in power, the more radical they will become. We could very well have A Very American Coup before it’s over with to the point that it’s seen as something of a political 9/11 — not even The New York Times will be able to “both sides” this — they’re going to have to admit that a coup is taking place.

The question, of course, is what the reaction of the average person will be to this Very American Coup. There’s something of a spectrum in my opinion — either there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth on Twitter but nothing really happens i the real world, or we careening towards The Big Ugly of some sort of civil war / revolution.

Of course, there is the “Trump Salts The Earth” scenario where Trump, after quickly bringing the country to the edge of The Big Ugly abruptly gives up, but tries to destroy as much as possible on his way out. He fires people, he pardons people — including himself! Or he won’t leave office unless he can quit and get Pence to pardon him.

The darkest scenario is Trump holds up in the White House and just rants on Twitter all day and we have to physically remove him from the Oval Office while a mob of angry MAGA shitheads surround the building to defend the Dear Leader.

The Big Ugly: America Has A Very ‘July 1991 Soviet Union’ Vibe To It Right Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why I keep comparing Trump to Gorbachev is I can remember in the years leading up to the August Coup how no one, but no one could understand what his agenda was or what the ultimate endgame would be.

Trump is the same way — we know we’re in a new era and we have no idea how any of this is going to end.

I still think very, very soon we’re going to experience The Big Ugly. I like this phrase because it’s not like I have to say, civil war, revolution or implosion. It’s just something BAD — The Big Ugly. The reason why I think The Big Ugly is going to happen is TrumpBarr will never peacefully leave office and, yet, the mood of the country (maybe?) has subtly begun to shift towards something (maybe?) akin to a landslide (if we were still a liberal democracy.)

As such, when TrumpBarr stage a coup of some sort, that’s going to slam up against American self-perception and the bolts may pop of the country. To the extent we see a massive amount of domestic political refugees as Red and Blue States begin to consolidate.

There’s also a chance that something pretty lit might happen in NYC — Trump Tower could be stormed. FOX News, The WSJ and New York Post could be literally driven out of the city. Hell, maybe even some sort of commune might be established there (free state?)

Anyway, the point is — there’s no endgame right now. The United States, because of the passions of the 2020 election and personality cult that surrounds Mad King Trump I may, well, fucking implode like the Soviet Union did in late 1991.

In general, I would suggest this isn’t going to happen because the countries are too different. And, yet, fucking cocksucker MAGA-Qanon shitheads may simply decide to force the issue, especially if TrumpBarr gives them every reason to believe they can successful keep Trump in power via some sort of well-finessed media messaging management coup.

To me, it seems as though The Big Ugly might happen for no other reason than TrumpBarr make the caculation that the dead hand of history is on their side and, by the way, fuck you.

Have no idea if they’re right or not.

Only time will tell.

Countdown To Implosion: A Very American Coup (And Counter-Coup)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on right now is it’s difficult, if not impossible, to figure out how serious Trump is about staging A Very American Coup and how much is him simply hedging his bets. Trump may simply want a wide-array of options to choose from.

And, remember, Trump must know by this point that Russian hackers are going to (attempt) to directly change the results of the 2020 election by hacking directly into our election computer systems. As such, that MIGHT be the real explanation behind the odd decision on the part of the Trump Campaign to go dark with their advertising in key battleground states right before the election. Trump is lulzing it because he knows nothing matters at this point — the fix is in.

Anyway, let’s imagine he decides to go ahead with his Very American Coup. What happens?

The Coup
The key thing you have to remember is Interior Minister Bill Bar is going to fuck with the election in a very “Who, me?” kind of way. He did it with the Mueller Investigation and he’s going to do it with the election. In fact, I would go so far as to say his success in blunting the blow of Mueller Investigation has given him a very good understanding of what to do.

As long as House Trump controls the post-election narrative, they win. As things grow more and more unhinged, the pressure will be on Biden to accept “defeat” for the “sake of the country.” So, it’s easy to see a situation whereby somehow even though a coup takes place, The New York Times and others play right into Barr’s hands by not even recognizing that a coup has taken place.

And, really, Barr has every reason to believe he will win. So, it’s very possible that even if MAGA state legislatures simply seat Trump Electors out of spite, a wide swath of the mainstream press will go full Vichy on us. I could see this being the setup to not a civil war, but a fucking revolution.

In other words, House Trump and Barr pretty brazenly steal the election post-Election night by fucking with the selection of Electors. The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman in a ever-so-droll way, signs away the Republic. She poo-poos the notion that anyone has the right to object to this theft and goes back to telling randos like me that I don’t know anything about (access) journalism.

So, this would be a moment of truth. I honestly can’t tell you which way the public would go. There might be some protestings here and there, but Barr controls the media narrative so completely that The New York Times focuses only on the violences associated with these otherwise peaceful protests and that’s it. We turn into an autocracy without even putting up a fight. Remember, the Women’s March has some pretty huge peaceful protests every year and the national press lulzes them because it’s just a bunch of angry broads, amiright?

The Counter-Coup
This is very iffy because of what I describe above. But let’s say Trump, despite “winning” so absolutely brazen in his theft of the election that he enrages enough of the population that Nancy Pelosi finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY really begins to play white knuckled power politics with Trump. She begins a game of chicken with him.

Now, the thing to remember is, there are a lot of different things that would have to go wrong for Trump for this to happen. A lot. He’s going to bank on a hard 5-4 vote in his favor at SCOTUS if it comes to that. And he’ll be right. But it’s at least possible that out of sheer desperation, Pelosi drops an H-bomb on Trump’s plans to steal the election.

She announces soon after the last 5-4 SCOTUS vote a two pronged attack against Trump’s coup. First, the House will immediately impeach Trump the moment it comes into session in January. But it won’t be a “skinny” impeachment, it will be a 10 article political MOAB. Everything Trump — and Pence have done over the last four years, from Stormy Daniels to general abuse of power will be thrown into the expansive articles of impeachment. Now, if the Senate hasn’t flipped, then lulz, this is all smoke and mirrors.

MoscowMich does exactly what he did with the first Trump impeachment. But, let’s suppose the Senate does flip. If the country is obviously beginning to fall apart at this point — which would be the only way Pelosi would actually have the guts to do any of this — then there might be a real shot that both Trump AND Pence would be convicted.

This is where things get tricky.

In an effort to placate some very angry Biden voters, Pelosi says she’s going to step aside and have the Democratic House name Biden as speaker of the House, thus putting him in line of succession. The argument that Pelosi could make is that desperate times call for desperate measures and one coup deserves another.

Remember, this would NOT happen in a vacuum. The entire country would likely be on the cusp of implosion at this point. And Trump could very well send in the D.C. national guard (or whatever) to Capitol Hill and try to disperse any impeachment proceedings. But let’s suppose that doesn’t work for some reason, maybe a massive human shield of voters or something.

So both Trump and Pence are convicted — in no large part because Senate Republicans realize the country is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution anyway — and Biden becomes POTUS in a very roundabout manner. He proceeds to name Harris as his veep, and the Senate approves her at a record speed.

If things have gotten THIS BAD, then obviously Trump — who is probably barely hanging on to his sanity — will hold up in the White House. But it’s reasonable to believe that rather than play Hitler-in-the-Berlin-Bunker, he steals Marine One and races to, say, the very CSA-friendly Mobile, Alabama.

And that’s how the country implodes.

The Politics Of Fascist America



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is now fascist. This started the moment Trump was aquitted by the Senate. Trump is going to brazenly and successfully steal the 2020 Election in rather astonishing fashion.

In fact, his theft of the 2020 Election may be so staggering in its autocratic nature that it, in itself, may lead to another impeachment. But, obviously, American politics is now so broken that even if we all know Trump stole the election that there simply will not be the political will necessary to do anything about it.

So, that leads to an interesting question: what will the politics of Trump’s stolen, fascist term be like?

This is all very nebulous for a number of reasons. We know general trends, but the specifics of this absolute certain future remain difficult to predict. Once Trump is successfully in his stolen second term, it would make sense that he goes after the last institution that has any ability to check him: the press.

Once he uses his “German Industrialist” allies to buy up and the purge the free press, House Trump’s consolidation of power will accelerate considerably. He obviously is going to start ranting about the need for a Constitutional Convention and without a free press to slow him down, he’ll get it.

This leads to another, more specific question: how bad are things going to get?

Well, there’s a real chance that things could get far, far worse than any of us can possibly imagine. I say this because of Qanon. Once Qanon is the central tenant of the Republican Party, there’s every reason to believe House Trump will use this darkly vicious loony idea to use ICE to round up any and everyone they don’t like and put them in a camp — or push them out a window.

Remember, history is very, very strange at times. So, I would go so far as to suggest that Trump “unbound” will mean there are American Killing Fields. Using the support of the now completely Qanonized Republican Party, House Trump will murder in cold blood any and everyone they disagree with in a rather breathtaking fashion.

Given the momentum involved and the size of the population, I would estimate the death toll could begin to creep up to 10 million, maybe more. This is our future, this is going to happen. We might pause it now and again, but the conditions for this nightmare to happen are locked in.

Now, I will admit that sounds rather hysterical. But I simply can’t imagine any possible scenario where Trump in his second term doesn’t burn everything to the ground. The forces that he has unleashed are far more powerful than his ability to control them and, as such, watch out.

There is also a chance that a number of Blue States will be converted to military districts and Congress (and the courts) will be purged of anyone seen as not loyal to House Trump.

I could be wrong. I hope I am. If Trump doesn’t do all that and we simply drift into a quasi-autocrat situation, I could see the center-Left radicalizing much the way the center-Right in America did during Obama’s second term. So much so that by 2024, someone like Jon Stewart might run for office.

But it’s extremely difficult to sketch out anything that far out. All I know is, all signs point to House Trump ruling Trumplandia for around 40 or more years and then demographics being such that a new nation of some sort arising from the rubble of the United States.

It probably will be far smaller than the United States and the Blue States will hunker down to a Singularity of MAGA.

I hope I’m wrong with the dystopian nightmare I predict above. I really do. Something pretty spectacular that I simply can’t predict would have to happen, however. The macro trends are simply too powerful at this point for that not to be the case.

‘Gradually, Then All At Once’ — House Trump & The Fall Of The American Republic



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are growing so tragic in the United States that really, there’s little you can do but tune out and wait to get pushed out a window by an ICE agent. The crazy thing about Trump is he’s definitely going to be seen as a Julius Caesar in the sense that he’s the guy that ends the Republic.

As I may have said before, it’s kind of obvious, now, how all of this was going to end. That statement Trump said about how he could murder someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a vote wasn’t a joke — and, as such, Trump has destroyed the United States that we once knew. Ernest Hemingway said people go bankrupt, “gradually, then all at once.” And that’s what’s happening to the United States. The fall of our Republic happened gradually, then all at once and Trump was the guy who pulled the trigger.

While I guess there’s a greater-than-zero-chance that somehow there may be a House Trump Interregnum because of some unpredictable fluke no one can predict, it would just be a pause.

America is now Trumplandia.

And, really, the issue at this point is, will there be a civil war or not and if there is, which side will the U. S. Military pick? Either side the chose will prompt bloodshed on an unprecedented scale. Or, put another way, if it’s this difficult to get rid of someone as demonstrably moronic and criminally incompetent as Trump, the, well, lulz. That’s really all you need to know about the state of democracy in the United States — it’s dead.

The only “change” that needs to happen is the 240-year self-perception Americans have of living in a “free” country. There may be significant bloodshed when a lot of people who “don’t have time for politics” wake up to realize they have a real risk of being snatched off the street — or pushed out a window — by one of Trump’s Little Green Men.

Once House Trump finally gets past that speed bump, then, while there might be a lot of protests now and then — just as there are in Russia — in the end it will be a lulz. House Trump will grow more and more powerful, more and more wealthy and fuck you.

Really, the last step will be Trump demanding we have a Constitutional Convention. That’s going to happen far, far sooner than any of us realize. He’s already demanding a “do over” for his first four years in office because he was “spied upon” by the Obama Administration. The logic is already there, folks. He’s going to push for a third term (a whole host of other Enabling Acts) and nothing is going to happen, just like always.

In hindsight, the moment the House flipped and Nancy Pelosi didn’t cause the entire government to grind to a halt, America was dead. America is dead. We’re Trumplandia now. A fascist state.

America is Russia. Russia is America.

The Coming Second American Civil War



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Editor’s Note: If you found this because you HOPE there’s a Second American Civil War, you’re a piece of shit. Fuck you.

Let me be clear — I don’t think there’s really going to be a “civil war” in the sense that states leave the Union. But I do think the conditions are there for there not to be a peaceful transfer of power. Trump cares so little about America other than how much money he can rob from it, that he’s going to burn the whole thing to the ground to stay in power.

I can’t predict the future, but there is something of a spectrum for us to mull. One one end of the spectrum, Trump is able to use ratfucking the postal service and the bullshit Durham investigation to influence votes enough that he “wins” pretty early in the process.

On the other end of the spectrum, well, all hell breaks loose.

Here’s why I think this. Trump is a complete moron. He’s also very incompetent. So if he “wins” reasonably early in the election process, then our general drift towards an authoritarian “managed democracy” will continue in fits and starts leading up to a Constitutional Convention.

But if Trump has to press the issue, if he has to force the U.S. Military to make a decision, then he’s far more likely to do some pretty radical things out of desperation. This would cause a lot of Americans who otherwise “don’t have time for politics” to sit up and take notice. Once you start fucking with the average American’s self-perception of what it means to be American, some pretty astonishing things may happen.

So, it is easy to imagine a situation where Trump is given by Barr a very thin cover for being president and he simply refuses to leave office. Once you have one half of the country thinking Trump “won” and one half thinking he didn’t, then there’s likely to be unprecedented violence and the U.S. Military is going to be force to do something about it.

I could maybe see some sort of “Unity Government” being established to punt the problem down the road for two years until the mid-terms. But even that might be pushing it.

The issue for me is the American center-Left is so completely ineffectual that by the time people start to figure out what Trump’s done, it will be too late. He will have finally purged the media and the Little Green Men seen in Portland will be taken nation-wide. We won’t know how many people are “vanished” by the government because there won’t be an independent press anymore.

And, really, macro trends in the United States indicate that the Republican Party is all-in on fascism so if somehow we managed to physically remove Trump from office it will just be a pause. Soon enough, a President Tom Cotton or President Mike Pomepo will finish the job that Mad King Trump started.

As I keep saying, I have no idea what to do about any of this. But we have to accept the new normal and realize that some basic freedoms that Americans have come to accept will no longer be there when we need them.

More on this Subject.

We have to get some things out of the way before we talk about this — Republicans have no shame and MAGA longs for a Russian-style autocracy. And in the eyes of MAGA — by definition the only legitimate election victory is one where Trump supporters win.

Another thing we have to appricate is — something about Obama’s second term drove Republicans insane. They completely left reality. This happened probably because it sank in that America is changing and they would rather destroy democracy than allow those changes to effect changes in our power structure. Add to this the growing economic power of women and the associated sexual agency and, well, lulz, they want an autocracy.

So, let’s talk about a second American civil war.

The first issue is Trump blew it when he didn’t strike before the election was called by the media. And, so, that’s the real crux of the issue — if Trump was the autocrat I thought he was, then the civil war we all think is going to happen would have already have happened. Trump would have driven Blue States out of the Union, used the Insurrection Act and then re-organized them under some sort of MAGA Reconstruction.

But because Trump isn’t an autocrat but an idiot ding-dong, we are now careening towards an extremely surreal situation where what shouldn’t be happening — Trump leaving office — is actually going to happen. So many Republicans have invested their entire life, career and identity into The Thousand Year Trump the fact that Trump is leaving office is going to causing them significant existential angst.

Let’s get to the point — how could a civil war break out NOW? All I got is Trump goes completely fucking insane and, as such, goes transactional on Twitter. For an actual civil war to happen, Trump would have to demand Red States to attempt to leave the Union. That’s all I got. Then we see if MAGA Republicans really are willing to jump off the cliff at the direction of the Dear Leader.

I have no idea if this is actually possible. But it is a real possibility. As such, that would be the civil war. That would be the opportunity for Good Old Boys in the Patriot Party to murder liberals in cold blood. Yet, because it would be Red States not Blue States leaving the Union, the issue of race would come to the fore. Blacks simply are not going to do nothing if there is an effort to leave the Union by whites in the South.

So, instead of any sort of Trumplandia being established, you’ll just get a fucking race war.

All in all, it’s tragic and sad that so many people would actually WANT a fucking civil war. What is wrong with you fucking cocksuckers?

More on This Subject.

Ok, I get it, on an abstract level, Good Old Boys want to join the Patriot Party and murder “libtards” in cold blood because they fear their lives will be ruined when they are “canceled” simply for being conservative.

But let’s break this down.

The thing we have to see is what’s really going on is MAGA people want an autocracy. They want to live in an Americanized version of Putin’s Russia. That’s their dream. Their goal. The irony is that Trump is an avatar for the extensive rot in the American political system and that’s why he’s so fucking lazy. He doesn’t have to do anything other than just be himself.

So, what’s going on right now is there is a crucial element of our fate that isn’t happening — Trump isn’t the autocrat that MAGA wants, he’s just a ding-dong. As such, all my predictions that Trump “wouldn’t lose” were right but for one thing: Trump isn’t an autocrat. He’s an idiot.

All the conditions were there for Trump to destroy American democracy in one fell swoop in any number of ways — and he didn’t do it. The conditions for autocracy continue to exist — the longing for autocracy by MAGA continue to exist — so we are careening towards a surreal situation where what should be happening, isn’t happening.

We should be an autocracy now, but we’re not because the person who otherwise with the means, motive and opportunity to do so — Trump — simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to pull it off.

If Trump was the autocrat I thought he was, he would have struck in some sort of autocratic fashion right before or right after the election in such a way that would have driven the Blue States out of the Union. But he didn’t, so now even if he struck at some point between now and Jan 20th, it would likely happen only because Trump went fucking bonkers.

As such, what’s likely to happen is we’re going to punt this particular problem down the road. It could be something in the 2023-2025 timeframe. This would give the Proud Boys and the Patriot Party time to organize and a “Man on a Horse” to bubble up to the service who would do what Trump wasn’t able to — turn the United States into an autocracy.

I must note that the funniest part of all of this is the Good Old Boys who come to this site obviously thinking there’s going to be a MAGA “revolution.” I find this hilarious because the logic of a “MAGA revolution” is both dubious and tenuously connected to reality. And that feeling of a need for a “MAGA revolution” is also an example of the yearning for a Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo to at some point take “total control” in a way that Trump simply wasn’t capable of doing.

A civil war may come, but I struggle to imagine it happening anytime soon because Trump is a ding-dong, not an autocrat.

Trump Is Playing With Fire With The Bogus Durham Investigation



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Trump was supposed to lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College just like in 2016. Just after his acquittal by callow Senate Republicans he was giving a very loud standing ovation by these same Republicans in a private meeting.

Trump knew all he had to do was absolutely placate the MAGA base and the rest would take care of itself.

Then COVID19 happened.

Now things are a bit more tricky. Trump’s natural inculcation is to use the bullshit Durham Investigation into the origins of the TrumpRussia investigation to indict Joe Biden and be done with it. He would kill two birds with one stone — he would “prove” that TrumpRussia was a “hoax” and he would knock out Biden so he easily wins re-election.

I am fully prepared to state that this may still work. In fact, it will work. If we’ve gotten this far down the road to tyranny, then something as simple as brazenly indicting Joe Biden for political gain is a lulz. All they have to do is indict Biden a just the right moment so there’s some confusion about it all as people go to the polls. By the time everything gets straightened out, Trump will be ranting about the need for a Constitutional Convention and MAGA will simply dismiss people people’s rage at what happened as the usual “Orange Man Bad” liberals being “triggered.”

As an aside, I think we might be willing to think outside the box a little bit — what if Durham waits until AFTER the election to indict Biden and the whole thing is used as a negotiating tactic to make sure TRUMP isn’t indicted after he leaves office? The only reason why I’m not prepared to accept this as a possibility is Trump is a fucking moron and his actual personal political skill is little more than a grunt.

Anyway, there is a least a tiny chance that while indicting Biden as the “October Surprise” gets the job done, it might also be something so outrageous and on the nose that even people who otherwise “don’t have time for politics” might, at last sit up and take notice. It’s not likely, but it’s possible — I mean, if you’re cool with “tender care facilities” what’s a little election theft between fascists?

But it is possible that some pretty unexpected things might happen if Trump gets too greedy and indicts Biden directly. If he was smart — which he is not — he would get really close to Biden, but not indict Biden himself. But MAGA people are so absolute in their bloodlust when it comes to the Durham Investigation that I could totally see them lulzing this and making a significant strategic error.

I’m not prepared to get my hopes up, though. More likely than not, the country is simply too divided. And, if anything, history books will count the indictment of Biden as the moment the United States, for intents and purposes, finally became a fascist state.

I keep trying to come up with solutions or what people can do on a practical level to combat this, but I guess I’m not smart enough. Everything I can think of involves getting at least 3.5% of the population to participate in mass protests and general strikes.

The United States simply has no political history of something so big — we’re not France, after all, so lulz.

America In Brown & Red



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I know way too many fucking fascists in real life. I, personally, have come to accept that not only has fascism taken over the country I love, but that Trump is going to brazenly steal the 2020 Election. What’s more, about 38% of the electorate is going to embrace this theft rather willingly.

There a number of significant macro trends that make all this possible and they all express themselves in the guise of one Donald John Trump. He’s an avatar for some pretty intractable problems in the United State’s body politic. What bothers me is a lot of Twitter liberals who should know better are deluding themselves about what’s going on.

These Twitter liberals are so busy scoring points on social media with memes they think will “destroy” House Trump, that they are totally oblivious to what’s going on in the real world. Many, many people are too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to “have time for politics” and, as such, they have only a vague awareness of what’s going on. All they know is, on an abstract level, Trump is protecting them from violent progressives (Communists) who want to “destroy the sanctity of marriage” and burn Federal court houses.

What’s more, their abstract fears about what these evil liberal progressives (Communists) MIGHT do are so all consuming that they honestly don’t care about the very real fascist things House Trump is actually doing right now. And so when House Trump inevitably indicts Joe Biden in late October as part of the bogus Durham Investigation, they’ll lulz it. And if they do ever get around to figuring out the whole thing was done to steal the election, it’ll be so long after the fact as to be politically pointless.

Then these very same people will simply shrug and tell people like me to “shut up if you know what’s good for you.” These Good Germans will get upset when people protest (if they do) when Trump steals the fall election in an extremely brazen fashion.

As I’ve mentioned before, what Trump wants to do is throw so much interference at the 2020 Election that we will struggle to pinpoint what, exactly what the thing that did it. That’s what he wants. He doesn’t want to do anything so absolutely brazen that American’s self-perception kicks in an people realize what he’s up to.

And, yet, with things like the Durham Investigation, he’s setting himself up to do just that. The whole thing is fucking bullshit and when Durham indicts (or whatever) Biden in late October the whole thing is going to be a little bit too on the nose for a lot of people. And, yet, there is such absolute bloodlust for just that on the part of the entire Republican Party that the whole thing may get out of control.

Not that indicting Biden isn’t going to work — it obviously will. And, generally, most people are just going to take the indictment at face value and Trump will cruise to victory. But there’s at least a greater than zero chance that people who otherwise might not care might sit up and take notice. It’s possible, not probable.

Remember those macro trends. The problems that caused Trump in the first place aren’t going anywhere. So, even if somehow we magically are able to frog walk Trump out of the White House at some point, he’s going to be seen as a political martyr by the Right. They are going to do everything in their power to bring down the Biden Administration as soon as possible.

There are no easy answers to this problem. The reason is — if Twitter liberals finally stopped trying to score points on Twitter and took the actions necessary in real fucking life to actually halt the ascent of fascism in the United States there will be blood, as they say.

Republicans have already crossed the Rubicon into fascism — they’re ready to make the jump from insane rhetoric on FOX News to murdering people in cold blood for political reasons. Should the center-Left get woke to this cold hard fact, well, I guess we’re going to have a civil war.

But I’m reluctant to say that.

The center-Left in the Untied States is so fucking weak that what’s more likely to happen is simply the bad guys will win and after the shock of Trump brazenly stealing the election wears off, we’re going to get used to people getting pushed out of windows.

That’s probably going to be the last stage in our transformation to a “managed democracy” like Russia in the sense that Trump will have to purge the media first to get away with it. Can’t very well make people mad by pushing people out windows if no body knows about it because OANN now owns CNN, now can you?

If Russia is any indication, what will happen is pop culture in the Unites States will decouple completely from politics. Only people like me will scream at the top of our lungs as to what’s going on (and get pushed out a window for doing it.) The average person might take note that suddenly CNN and FOX news are indistinguishable, but that’s about it.

Because of macro trends, this is the future of America. There might be the occasional hiccup because Trump is such a fucking incompetent, moronic self-own artist, but the general we have to wait until the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America before any of this changes. And, given that the entire point of MAGA is to STOP the Browning of America, lulz, maybe it will never happen.

I don’t have any answers as to how to prevent any of this. I would, however, suggest that we’re now in the part of America’s transition to a fascist state where you what you do in real life matters. Scoring points, or thinking up a powerful meme doesn’t mean shit when Little Green Men are snatching people off the street or, later, pushing people out windows.

I used to think Americans weren’t Russians and, by definition, would not allow a fascist, autocratic “managed democracy” to happen here. But I realize now I was being naive. It can –and will — happen here.

Trump Endgame Enigma: ‘Jhi-na Syndrome’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love scenarios. I love weighing different factors, asking “what if” and wondering how a number of conditions would work. Usually my scenarios are the absolute worst-case.

So, let’s play the “What if Trump finally lost his mind” scenario.

Here’s the thing: first, how would we know?

Trump is so conspicuous in his instability, that for him to have finally have cracked, something REALLY Big would have have to happen. I am still of the opinion that Trump is more likely to implode than explode and we’ll simply not see him very much in his inevitable ill-gotten second term. He’ll be catatonic somewhere, babbling about the Deep State.

But, let’s say between now and, say, mid-August, a series of things push Trump over the edge. A combination of a pandemic, a depression, BountyGate and maybe even his taxes being released, becomes such a weigh on his mind that he snaps. I think such a decompensation would come a logic trap — he would absolutely want to win and yet he would absolute know he wasn’t going to win. (Though he might never get that bad since it’s obvious the Russians are going to hack into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our fighting force out of Germany before September.)

Anyway, let’s just say Trump snaps.

I think a number of things would happen at the same time. A lot of things that have been rolling around his mind would pop out. He might whip is cock out. He might tweet out a dick pic. He might began to tweet out out the N-word to any African American who crosses him. He might simple begin to babble vulgarities at every opportunity. Or even stranger things might happen, like he dives head first into Tik-Tok and starts attempting some of the dances there. Or maybe he really, REALLY makes it clear he wants certain people “reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” He keeps doing this now and no one takes him seriously. What if he won’t shut up about it in a rather manic fashion for days or weeks on end?

The next issue is what the reaction would be.

Given how close we are to the election, initially, not a lot would happen different. Republicans would simply ignore the behavior, hoping it will go away. It would take a few days of some seriously disturbing behavior before the pressure would begin to build for something, anything to happen.

This is where things get murky. I can’t figure out how we would ever get rid of Trump, even if he was, say, going out of his way to start a war with the DPRK in a desperate bid to “Wag the Dog.” I might go so far as to say this crisis might go on and on and on and on for months until the election rolls around and, surprise! Trump weirdly wins anyway.

Then we spend three months on edge we try to figure out how we’re going to get Electors to vote for Joe Biden because it’s absolutely clear that because of a quid pro quo with Russia, Trump has illegally won re-election because of hacking on the part of Putin.

I guess the point is — I don’t know how we would ever actually get rid of Trump, even if he fucking totally lost his fucking mind and put the lives of 300 million Americans at risk. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

Did Trump Kill Snark?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the book “The Fourth Turning” for the novel I’m developing and I can see why people like Steve Bannon like it so much. But it has got me thinking just now about other cycles in culture, outside of the political.

We are definitely in something of a funk when it comes to edgy, provocative writing and art. It happened in the 2006-2008 era for some reason. We really haven’t had good snark (or pop rock) sense then. We don’t have any popular, yet edgy pop culture to consume these days. And the case could be made that the Trump administration’s lack of shame and self-awareness has killed irony and snark for all times.

I kept expecting some punk Millennial to pick up a guitar and start writing punk songs, but that has yet to happen. I now have to hope that “Zoomers” are going to do it — that they managed to punk Trump’s asshole campaign manager Brad Pascarle is a promising sign of a possible future.

And, yet, I almost think the very ideas of “irony” and “snark” no longer are applicable in this hyper connected world. Maybe there will be no Fourth Turning. Maybe it won’t come roaring back.

Maybe irony is dead. Maybe Trump killed it.