Tag: Trump Is Very Stupid

Is Trump An ‘American Hitler?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The short answer, is, surprisingly, no.

The long answer is…oh boy. The thing about Trump is he shares a huge number of qualities that Hitler had but — at least to date — one: he’s all talk. He talks and talks about very Hitler-like in 1933 type things…but so far a combination of his laziness and the strength of our democratic institutions have managed to keep him check.

Me, 2025?

In fact, that’s the thing I — and a lot of other people in the anti-MAGA movement got wrong about Trump. We were so busy being hysterical about how much Trump in the 2015 – 2017 timeframe was similar to Hitler that we were oblivious to the crucial ways Trump was NOT like Hitler. Hitler had an organic bloodthirsty quality that popped out early with how he got rid of the more radical SA soon after he gained power in Germany.

Meanwhile, Trump often says violent things out of frustration or ignorance, but his actual violent actions have — again, to date — been few and far between. What’s more, while Hitler in 1933 was actively knocking heads in his quest to gain power….in 2020 Trump sat on his hands for months. He wasted a huge window of opportunity between Biden was the nominee to when the election was called by FOX.

So, like I said, Trump isn’t an American Hitler.

But, he is kind of the bridge to an autocratic America that if it went off the rails could lead to very Nazi-like crimes against humanity — especially in the South. It may not be Trump who sets up the conditions for America’s “Final Solution” for black and brown people, but it damn well is going to be a MAGA New Right Republican.

Or, put another way, our current liberal democracy is so fucking hanging on that the moment we get a MAGA New Right president it’s over. All the conditions and all the metrics are there for American democracy to be snuffed out for good. The whole system is so fragile that a President Pompeo or Hawley or Cotton or DeSantis could easily establish themselves an autocrat without blinking an eye.

Probably via some sort of Koch Brother inspired Constitutional Convention.

So, like I said, Trump hasn’t proven to be the American Hitler I, and others, feared.

But the danger of the Untied States slipping into a Nazi-like autocracy is a clear and present danger.

A Second American Civil War Is Coming…But….


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States politically is running on fumes. And, all things being equal, we’re on the cusp of a civil war. But. There’s a big difference between MAGA wanting to murder liberals in cold blood in the abstract and actually doing it. And, now that Trump blew his golden opportunity to drive Blue States out of the Union, we’re in a very murky situation indeed.

Several different things are happening at the same time. Time is running out for Trump to such an extent that even if he started to actively goad Blue States to secede in some way, all Blue States have to do is wait out the clock. On January 20th, that’s it — Biden becomes POTUS and Trump’s best case is to fly to Alabama and try to get Red States to leave the Union en mass.

Now, I’m aware of the Jan 6th shenanigans that Republicans want to pull, but that gambit is extremely quixotic. Republicans don’t control the House and the Senate leadership has made it clear they’re not interested in anyone voting to replace Electors.

As such, again, in the abstract MAGA really wants to start killing liberals on the field of battle….but a civil war doesn’t just happen magically. You would need troops, a government, you name it. As it stands, MAGA are just sore losers who are triggered because they got their fee-fees hurt.

So, in that sense, the case could be made that we’re on the very edge of the beginning of a process that will ultimately lead to some sort of secession crisis. What MAGA is doing is significantly more serious than what happened in 2016 and we can only assume that the 2024 election situation will be even MORE serious than this 2020.

The crux of the issue is that because of existential problems in our political system, the United States is two different nations that are receding from each other at an alarming rate. On an abstract level, MAGA’s dream of America is my nightmare and vis-versa. MAGA wants a fascist white ethno state that is pretty much a clone of Russia. Or, to put it another, more poetic way, to “make America great again,” they want 1950s America with wifi and Disney+.

It’s still very possible that if there was some sort of political 9/11 that a civil war would break out in the United States sooner rather than later, and, yet, as I keep writing — Blue States are in a far better position than Red States to the point that Red States wanting a civil war is rather foolish in the extreme.

All I can figure out is Red State MAGA people are looking at what’s going on politically and assuming they could make short work of Blue State people for various reasons — including MAGA is a bunch of racist, misogynistic cocksucking fuck who are so wrapped up in their love of the Dear Leader that they have deluded themselves into thinking they can somehow just leave the Union without African Americans picking up arms to destroy them.

When it comes to a near-term civil war in the United States, it will be because Trump snaps at some point and goes transactional Twitter. But even then, it might be rolling political violence instead of an actual civil war. And, remember, Biden is going to become POTUS on January 20th, so, again, it grows very difficult for Trump to push Blue States out of the Union then turn around and take them over via some sort of MAGA Reconstruction.

Again — one can only conclude that while a Second American Civil War is likely to happen between now and, say, 2025-ish, for the time being we’ve been spared that tragedy. And if we aren’t, it will be specifically because Trump finally loses his fucking mind.

Only A Trump Victory Will Be Seen As Legitimate By MAGA-Qanon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I see a lot of Blue Check liberals who talk about how, on a political level, the Trump campaign is “imploding.” “Love to see it,” they say. I find this very aggravating because they’re deluding themselves.

America’s political system has collapsed. As such, for MAGA-Qanon, there can only be one legitimate victor in the fall — Donald Trump. This means that any outcome that doesn’t involve Trump winning is to be challenged, maybe even in an armed revolt. The issue is, of course, that if Trump “wins,” then he’ll begin to aggressively consolidate power and so, lulz, that’s it.

So either Trump wins and turns us into an autocratic managed democracy our he loses and there’s significant political violence, up to and including an actual civil war. I just don’t see the result that a lot of Blue Check Liberals apparently believe will happen — that of a Biden victory and a peaceful transfer of power — happening. It’s just not a very likely scenario at this point.

The more difficult it is for Trump to secure a victory, the more radical and ham-handed he will become. This, in turn, will throw the country in turmoil because a lot of Biden people are unlikely to simply let this happen without some sort of real-world response. As Trump’s insanity and political criminality fuse tighter and tighter as the days progress, there are all kinds of nightmare scenarios involving actual violent clashes in the streets.

Should the absolute worst case scenario happen — that of dueling presidents — then all bets are off. The only real question at that point will be which president the U.S. Military sees as valid and how they decide to put down any major insurrection on either the Blue or Red side.

I guess there’s the possibility that major Blue States may simply leave the Union, but I find that a bit too much of a liberal fever dream. It would make a lot more sense for California to stay and fight than try to leave the Union and give Trump a massive political excuse to attack them with the U.S. Military.

Anyway, one thing is for sure — this fall and winter are going to be extremely historic. Either the United States turns into an autocratic managed democracy, or there’s something akin to a civil war. If there is a new American civil war, then soon thereafter, it’s likely World War III will break out as the DPRK and Russia see their opportunity to finally obtain their long term stragetic goals.

I will note that there is a chance that MAGA-Qanon will self-own even if Trump “wins.” They could now already be so bloodthirsty that even if Trump “wins” they will start murdering people they don’t like in cold blood. That, in itself, could evoke a significant response from Blue State governments.

Good luck

Scenario: Trump As ‘War President’ In A Conflict With The #DPRK



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no special insight and I can’t predict the future — at this point, I seriously doubt the DPRK is going to do anything out of the ordinary in the next few days.

But, just for “fun”, let’s run the scenario of Trump being a “war president” because of some shenanigans on the part of the DPRK. I think the key thing we have to understand is how bad Trump is at his job.

When the war was won — and it would be won by the USA — it would be despite Trump, not because of him. And the economy, already in recession, would be pushed into a pretty deep, short depression if all of the ROK was knocked off of line because of a war with the DPRK.

In fact, what I think would happen would be it would be Trump himself who would bungle the war with the DPRK if it ever came in the sense that what any normal POTUS might simply see as the usual DPRK bullshit, Trump might see as an opportunity to win re-election.

He might rapidly escalate things in a way that he shouldn’t and pop goes the world.

I hope that doesn’t happen. I really don’t.

Staring Into The Void — Contemplating A Trump Whistleblower Newscycle From Hell

Uh oh.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We have to begin this gut wrenching discussion with the obvious — in real terms, if what I fear might happens, happens, it will be one of the biggest political fuck ups on the part of an American party since the end of the Civil War. There simply is no way to weasel your way out of it — if there’s any type of anti-impeachment violence, Republicans — and Trump — are ultimately going to be blamed.

But, let’s move forward.

The issue right now is I just can’t speculate what the anti-impeachment violence will be. It could be anything from harm of some sort befalling the Whistleblower to a car bomb exploding somewhere like Times Square. But let’s go with something simple — the Whistleblower’s identity becomes so well know within the batshit insane MAGA echo chamber that someone decides to hurt him.

And, for the sake of argument, let’s say this happens sooner rather than later so Trump still has his marbles. But maybe it happens late enough that while there isn’t a direct link between Trump’s Twitter ranting and what happens, it’s pretty clear he established the conditions for it to happen. So things are still a bit nebulous.

The first thing would be the entire nation would come to a screeching halt for about 24 hours. For just around 24 hours, the nation would for once be on the same page: HOLY SHIT.

But this wouldn’t last very long. Once we began to process what happened, the two sides would be at each other’s throats again. MAGA Republicans would trade their hysterical rhetoric over the Whistleblower for hysterical rhetoric about how this unprecedented example of political violence is absolute proof that we “have to let the people decide” in 2020 instead continuing with the impeachment process.

In reality, this would be more about simply punting the debate over the criminal incompetence of Trump back into the political sphere and out of the “OH MY GOD, TRUMP GOT SOMEONE MURDERED” sphere. The usual suspects would pop out to message the base or carry water for House Trump. Hugh Hewitt would say Democrats are to blame because they should not have attempted to impeach Trump in the first place. House Republicans would scream at the top of their lungs that Rep. Adam Schiff should be charged as an accessory to murder. The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman would coo that Trump was a political genius for getting someone murdered.

Now, remember, this is just the first 24 hours. The whole issue of a funeral would have to be addressed. Then there would likely be an epic battle over who would speak at the funeral and why. My personal belief is that the populist rage of Twitter would burst into a supernova when the shock wore off and people realized what Trump’s hysterical and bombastic rhetoric had done.

Remember, the reason why Trump is so very, very stupid on a political level is right now the true backbone of his support is simple apathy. The vast majority of the populace is not on Twitter and is too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to care, in real terms, what Trump may or may not have done. The moment they a shocked out of their stupor by such un-American political violence, all bets are off.

I mean, the only thing I can think of that would possible force the hand of the living ex presidents would be something like anti-impeachment violence. Say what you will about Bill Clinton’s personal life, but I suspect he would be able to give a barn burner of a eulogy in such a situation.

So, the moment the funeral was over, Trump — who is completely devoid of human empathy — would go back to his old bullshit games. But I think his political fate would be sealed. While MAGA House Republicans would continue to caterwaul, in the end, Trump would be convicted by the Senate.

I still do not think anything like this is going to happen. It’s just so out of the American experience for there to be political violence. And, really, while I do think it’s inevitable that the Whistleblower will be “kavanaughed” by Republicans with great gusto as impeachment proceedings progress, I still am not prepared to accept in real terms that anyone on their side will go beyond that.

We’ll see, I guess.