‘We Don’t Need Your Civil War…’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m seeing with a great deal of alarm growing chatter on Twitter that the extreme Right believes that a Second American Civil War has already begun. This is very disturbing for a number of reasons.

But one thing we have to accept, as I’ve said before, is no matter what happens as part of the 2020 election, we’re in a new era.

And, yet, let’s go down the dark rabbit hole of a Second American Civil War. Let’s think about this seriously for a moment. It seems to me that the key thing we have to think about is there are likely to be a number of last-ditch efforts to avoid a civil war. Threats of secession, constitutional amendments and conventions and God only knows what else.

Sadly, it’s possible that they will all be for naught.

There’s a lot of talk about California leaving the Union if an actual civil war begins and the more I think about it, the more dubious that seems. MAGA-Qanon are seriously conflating what they’ve managed to get as part of their destruction of the American political system with what they think they might get by running around murdering people.

Yes, it’s very well possible that MAGA-Qanon, with the help of House Trump could strike a knockout blow against Blue States simply because they take the idea of an actual civil war far, far more seriously than most “coastal elites.” But as the opening days of the original civil war indicate, history doesn’t go in a straight line.

As such, once Blue States understood the gravity of the situation, there’s a decent chance that they won’t leave the Union, but fight for its soul. And key to winning that fight would be California staying in the Union. It’s easy to imagine a large military force from California swooping across the Great Plains and linking up with their compatriots in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

That would make the Blue States contiguous on a geographic level and then they could begin to strike east and south towards the heart of the old Confederacy.

But that’s all really very speculative at this point. It could be that while there will be significant political violence — no matter what happens in the fall — that Trump will simply use Barr to steal the whole thing in a “legal” fashion and he’ll consolidate power and that will be that.

Remember, it’s extremely likely that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems so Trump “wins” on election night. In fact, as of right now, that seems the most logical outcome to all of this. The Republic will die a political, not military death.

Going back to the tragedy of civil war again, if American really does implode, you have to think about the macro geopolitical consequences. Who gets the US Military? What happens if the DPRK attacks South Korea? Or Russia does a major military strike again, say, the Baltics? What are we going to do? Anything?

The whole thing is tragic and needless.

And, yet, I keep getting pings from different directions that definitely indicate something akin to a civil war might happen. MAGA-Qanon is really fucking bloodthirsty right now and in their craven quest for absolute power over the Blue States, they might get a lot more than they bargained for.

The New Normal



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to accept that the United States is no longer a liberal democracy. We’re now identical to the autocratic managed democracy of Russia. Really, at this point, the only issue is how quickly the end of the free press comes. My guess is it will happen rather abruptly sometime in 2021.

It will all happen “legally,” in the sense that no laws will be broken, but there is going to be a shit-ton of abuse of power. A combination of threatening to take broadcaster’s licenses and an “German industrialists” will fix the problem of the so-called “fake news.” We’ll wake up and CNN will be identical to OANN. And the New York Times will be force-nationalized then spun off to Rupert Murdoch.

Once the free press is dead, then Trump will have a free reign to do whatever the fuck he wants. We simply won’t even know he did it.

By 2024 the United States and Russia will be literally identical on a political level. Throw in Trump at some point demanding a Constitutional Convention and the First Republic has fallen. We’re just in the gauzy twilight period between the fall of the First Republic and when Trumplandia is strong enough that we notice how much things suddenly suck.

Something truly extraordinary would have to happen for Trumplandia not to come into existence. And, just like with impeachment, no one and nothing is going to save us.

In passing, I will casually note that Trump a self-own artist who only continues to survive because the tribal nature of post-politics America. He has an entire edifice designed specifically to enable him. And, really, the very thing that Trump seems to long for so badly — some sort of unprecedented political violence –is the very thing that might actually hurt his dream of becoming the Dear Leader.

Once you start murdering people for political reasons — as is already beginning to happen — the traditional rules of politics stop functioning. It’s a least possible that some pretty surreal and unexpected things might happen for no other reason than Trump is so dumb that he doesn’t realize that politics is actually good for him.

Anyway, I think a lot of the angst about a civil war is going to turn out to be overwrought. Trump has half a dozen things he can use so he “wins” on election night. But, like I said, he IS a self-own artist, so it’s at least possible that if we have some sort of “civil war” happens solely because Trump is a fuck up.

All I can say is either get out of the country now or be prepared to take a side. You’re going to have to risk the things that are important to you in the real world if stay in the United States. Get out while you still can.

The Politics Of Fascist America



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is now fascist. This started the moment Trump was aquitted by the Senate. Trump is going to brazenly and successfully steal the 2020 Election in rather astonishing fashion.

In fact, his theft of the 2020 Election may be so staggering in its autocratic nature that it, in itself, may lead to another impeachment. But, obviously, American politics is now so broken that even if we all know Trump stole the election that there simply will not be the political will necessary to do anything about it.

So, that leads to an interesting question: what will the politics of Trump’s stolen, fascist term be like?

This is all very nebulous for a number of reasons. We know general trends, but the specifics of this absolute certain future remain difficult to predict. Once Trump is successfully in his stolen second term, it would make sense that he goes after the last institution that has any ability to check him: the press.

Once he uses his “German Industrialist” allies to buy up and the purge the free press, House Trump’s consolidation of power will accelerate considerably. He obviously is going to start ranting about the need for a Constitutional Convention and without a free press to slow him down, he’ll get it.

This leads to another, more specific question: how bad are things going to get?

Well, there’s a real chance that things could get far, far worse than any of us can possibly imagine. I say this because of Qanon. Once Qanon is the central tenant of the Republican Party, there’s every reason to believe House Trump will use this darkly vicious loony idea to use ICE to round up any and everyone they don’t like and put them in a camp — or push them out a window.

Remember, history is very, very strange at times. So, I would go so far as to suggest that Trump “unbound” will mean there are American Killing Fields. Using the support of the now completely Qanonized Republican Party, House Trump will murder in cold blood any and everyone they disagree with in a rather breathtaking fashion.

Given the momentum involved and the size of the population, I would estimate the death toll could begin to creep up to 10 million, maybe more. This is our future, this is going to happen. We might pause it now and again, but the conditions for this nightmare to happen are locked in.

Now, I will admit that sounds rather hysterical. But I simply can’t imagine any possible scenario where Trump in his second term doesn’t burn everything to the ground. The forces that he has unleashed are far more powerful than his ability to control them and, as such, watch out.

There is also a chance that a number of Blue States will be converted to military districts and Congress (and the courts) will be purged of anyone seen as not loyal to House Trump.

I could be wrong. I hope I am. If Trump doesn’t do all that and we simply drift into a quasi-autocrat situation, I could see the center-Left radicalizing much the way the center-Right in America did during Obama’s second term. So much so that by 2024, someone like Jon Stewart might run for office.

But it’s extremely difficult to sketch out anything that far out. All I know is, all signs point to House Trump ruling Trumplandia for around 40 or more years and then demographics being such that a new nation of some sort arising from the rubble of the United States.

It probably will be far smaller than the United States and the Blue States will hunker down to a Singularity of MAGA.

I hope I’m wrong with the dystopian nightmare I predict above. I really do. Something pretty spectacular that I simply can’t predict would have to happen, however. The macro trends are simply too powerful at this point for that not to be the case.

‘Gradually, Then All At Once’ — House Trump & The Fall Of The American Republic



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are growing so tragic in the United States that really, there’s little you can do but tune out and wait to get pushed out a window by an ICE agent. The crazy thing about Trump is he’s definitely going to be seen as a Julius Caesar in the sense that he’s the guy that ends the Republic.

As I may have said before, it’s kind of obvious, now, how all of this was going to end. That statement Trump said about how he could murder someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a vote wasn’t a joke — and, as such, Trump has destroyed the United States that we once knew. Ernest Hemingway said people go bankrupt, “gradually, then all at once.” And that’s what’s happening to the United States. The fall of our Republic happened gradually, then all at once and Trump was the guy who pulled the trigger.

While I guess there’s a greater-than-zero-chance that somehow there may be a House Trump Interregnum because of some unpredictable fluke no one can predict, it would just be a pause.

America is now Trumplandia.

And, really, the issue at this point is, will there be a civil war or not and if there is, which side will the U. S. Military pick? Either side the chose will prompt bloodshed on an unprecedented scale. Or, put another way, if it’s this difficult to get rid of someone as demonstrably moronic and criminally incompetent as Trump, the, well, lulz. That’s really all you need to know about the state of democracy in the United States — it’s dead.

The only “change” that needs to happen is the 240-year self-perception Americans have of living in a “free” country. There may be significant bloodshed when a lot of people who “don’t have time for politics” wake up to realize they have a real risk of being snatched off the street — or pushed out a window — by one of Trump’s Little Green Men.

Once House Trump finally gets past that speed bump, then, while there might be a lot of protests now and then — just as there are in Russia — in the end it will be a lulz. House Trump will grow more and more powerful, more and more wealthy and fuck you.

Really, the last step will be Trump demanding we have a Constitutional Convention. That’s going to happen far, far sooner than any of us realize. He’s already demanding a “do over” for his first four years in office because he was “spied upon” by the Obama Administration. The logic is already there, folks. He’s going to push for a third term (a whole host of other Enabling Acts) and nothing is going to happen, just like always.

In hindsight, the moment the House flipped and Nancy Pelosi didn’t cause the entire government to grind to a halt, America was dead. America is dead. We’re Trumplandia now. A fascist state.

America is Russia. Russia is America.

Trump As America’s Gorbachev



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was alive and politically aware as the Soviet Union began to decline. I feel the same thing about the United States right now. Since America is too divided — and the average person too apathetic — it definitely seems as though the United States is about to buckle just like the USSR did in 1991.

The most logical outcome — if Trump doesn’t successfully steal the election far earlier than we might otherwise expect — is there will be a civil war because the two sides believe their guy won the presidency. It won’t be a fair fight, however. The center-Right is bloodthirsty and itching for a fight. They are looking for any excuse to murder people like me in cold blood — the rationale is there, if nothing else.

The after person is simply too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to care about politics. By the time they notice the tanks rolling through their town, it will be too late. MAGA is going to suckerpunch the center-Left. The Constitution will be destroyed and America — like the late Soviet Union — will be no more.

This is an absolute certainty at this point, the only thing up for debate is the degree. The more difficult it is for House Trump to steal the election, the more likely things will grow radical. Or, put another way, things House Trump will do one day anyway may happen a lot sooner because in the heat of the moment they feel they have no choice.

Once the U.S. Military sides with House Trump, then the rest will take care of itself. ICE and PACT will begin to snatch people off the street in earnest, throwing them into the already-existing ICE camps. And once the media is purged, they will start pushing people like me out of windows.

This is our future. It’s too late for us to do anything about it.

America is dead.

I wish I was smart enough to tell you what to do about this, how to prevent it or to make your life better, but I’m not smart enough. Either you put your head down and be a “Good German” or you don’t. No one is going to save us and we have waited too long to save ourselves.

The Constitutional Convention will happen soon enough and that will be that. The United States will leave NATO and sign a direct alliance with Russia. We will be Russia and Russia will be us.

The Coming Second American Civil War



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Editor’s Note: If you found this because you HOPE there’s a Second American Civil War, you’re a piece of shit. Fuck you.

Let me be clear — I don’t think there’s really going to be a “civil war” in the sense that states leave the Union. But I do think the conditions are there for there not to be a peaceful transfer of power. Trump cares so little about America other than how much money he can rob from it, that he’s going to burn the whole thing to the ground to stay in power.

I can’t predict the future, but there is something of a spectrum for us to mull. One one end of the spectrum, Trump is able to use ratfucking the postal service and the bullshit Durham investigation to influence votes enough that he “wins” pretty early in the process.

On the other end of the spectrum, well, all hell breaks loose.

Here’s why I think this. Trump is a complete moron. He’s also very incompetent. So if he “wins” reasonably early in the election process, then our general drift towards an authoritarian “managed democracy” will continue in fits and starts leading up to a Constitutional Convention.

But if Trump has to press the issue, if he has to force the U.S. Military to make a decision, then he’s far more likely to do some pretty radical things out of desperation. This would cause a lot of Americans who otherwise “don’t have time for politics” to sit up and take notice. Once you start fucking with the average American’s self-perception of what it means to be American, some pretty astonishing things may happen.

So, it is easy to imagine a situation where Trump is given by Barr a very thin cover for being president and he simply refuses to leave office. Once you have one half of the country thinking Trump “won” and one half thinking he didn’t, then there’s likely to be unprecedented violence and the U.S. Military is going to be force to do something about it.

I could maybe see some sort of “Unity Government” being established to punt the problem down the road for two years until the mid-terms. But even that might be pushing it.

The issue for me is the American center-Left is so completely ineffectual that by the time people start to figure out what Trump’s done, it will be too late. He will have finally purged the media and the Little Green Men seen in Portland will be taken nation-wide. We won’t know how many people are “vanished” by the government because there won’t be an independent press anymore.

And, really, macro trends in the United States indicate that the Republican Party is all-in on fascism so if somehow we managed to physically remove Trump from office it will just be a pause. Soon enough, a President Tom Cotton or President Mike Pomepo will finish the job that Mad King Trump started.

As I keep saying, I have no idea what to do about any of this. But we have to accept the new normal and realize that some basic freedoms that Americans have come to accept will no longer be there when we need them.

More on this Subject.

We have to get some things out of the way before we talk about this — Republicans have no shame and MAGA longs for a Russian-style autocracy. And in the eyes of MAGA — by definition the only legitimate election victory is one where Trump supporters win.

Another thing we have to appricate is — something about Obama’s second term drove Republicans insane. They completely left reality. This happened probably because it sank in that America is changing and they would rather destroy democracy than allow those changes to effect changes in our power structure. Add to this the growing economic power of women and the associated sexual agency and, well, lulz, they want an autocracy.

So, let’s talk about a second American civil war.

The first issue is Trump blew it when he didn’t strike before the election was called by the media. And, so, that’s the real crux of the issue — if Trump was the autocrat I thought he was, then the civil war we all think is going to happen would have already have happened. Trump would have driven Blue States out of the Union, used the Insurrection Act and then re-organized them under some sort of MAGA Reconstruction.

But because Trump isn’t an autocrat but an idiot ding-dong, we are now careening towards an extremely surreal situation where what shouldn’t be happening — Trump leaving office — is actually going to happen. So many Republicans have invested their entire life, career and identity into The Thousand Year Trump the fact that Trump is leaving office is going to causing them significant existential angst.

Let’s get to the point — how could a civil war break out NOW? All I got is Trump goes completely fucking insane and, as such, goes transactional on Twitter. For an actual civil war to happen, Trump would have to demand Red States to attempt to leave the Union. That’s all I got. Then we see if MAGA Republicans really are willing to jump off the cliff at the direction of the Dear Leader.

I have no idea if this is actually possible. But it is a real possibility. As such, that would be the civil war. That would be the opportunity for Good Old Boys in the Patriot Party to murder liberals in cold blood. Yet, because it would be Red States not Blue States leaving the Union, the issue of race would come to the fore. Blacks simply are not going to do nothing if there is an effort to leave the Union by whites in the South.

So, instead of any sort of Trumplandia being established, you’ll just get a fucking race war.

All in all, it’s tragic and sad that so many people would actually WANT a fucking civil war. What is wrong with you fucking cocksuckers?

More on This Subject.

Ok, I get it, on an abstract level, Good Old Boys want to join the Patriot Party and murder “libtards” in cold blood because they fear their lives will be ruined when they are “canceled” simply for being conservative.

But let’s break this down.

The thing we have to see is what’s really going on is MAGA people want an autocracy. They want to live in an Americanized version of Putin’s Russia. That’s their dream. Their goal. The irony is that Trump is an avatar for the extensive rot in the American political system and that’s why he’s so fucking lazy. He doesn’t have to do anything other than just be himself.

So, what’s going on right now is there is a crucial element of our fate that isn’t happening — Trump isn’t the autocrat that MAGA wants, he’s just a ding-dong. As such, all my predictions that Trump “wouldn’t lose” were right but for one thing: Trump isn’t an autocrat. He’s an idiot.

All the conditions were there for Trump to destroy American democracy in one fell swoop in any number of ways — and he didn’t do it. The conditions for autocracy continue to exist — the longing for autocracy by MAGA continue to exist — so we are careening towards a surreal situation where what should be happening, isn’t happening.

We should be an autocracy now, but we’re not because the person who otherwise with the means, motive and opportunity to do so — Trump — simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to pull it off.

If Trump was the autocrat I thought he was, he would have struck in some sort of autocratic fashion right before or right after the election in such a way that would have driven the Blue States out of the Union. But he didn’t, so now even if he struck at some point between now and Jan 20th, it would likely happen only because Trump went fucking bonkers.

As such, what’s likely to happen is we’re going to punt this particular problem down the road. It could be something in the 2023-2025 timeframe. This would give the Proud Boys and the Patriot Party time to organize and a “Man on a Horse” to bubble up to the service who would do what Trump wasn’t able to — turn the United States into an autocracy.

I must note that the funniest part of all of this is the Good Old Boys who come to this site obviously thinking there’s going to be a MAGA “revolution.” I find this hilarious because the logic of a “MAGA revolution” is both dubious and tenuously connected to reality. And that feeling of a need for a “MAGA revolution” is also an example of the yearning for a Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo to at some point take “total control” in a way that Trump simply wasn’t capable of doing.

A civil war may come, but I struggle to imagine it happening anytime soon because Trump is a ding-dong, not an autocrat.

‘Do Something’ — Thinking The Unthinkable With House Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am extremely reluctant to suggest an actual civil war may happen in the United States over the 2020 election. I’ve long thought it would be more of a situation of rolling political violence than an actual civil war. But, sadly, I’m coming to believe that the results of the 2020 election will be so contested, so up for different interpretations that there will, in fact, be a civil war.

Before we get to that point, let’s look at how a civil war would be the absolute worst case scenario for House Trump. The reason is, House Trump has a lot — AT LOT — of other options at their disposal. They come in phases.

Phase One
This phase involves brazen ratfucking of the democratic process that, on the face of it, will work exceptionally well. It will happen in the lead up to the November election. Trump is already slowing down the mail. And it’s generally assumed that the bullshit Durham investigation is going to indict if not Biden himself, a whole slew of people from the Obama Administration who are so close to Biden as to greatly reduce this chances of winning. As such, it’s very easy to imagine Trump does “win” the election with minimal effort. He loses California by 5 million votes and wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida by about the same margin as he did in 2016. Also in this phase would be the Russians hacking directly into our election systems in such a way as to pad Trump’s victory in swing states by just enough to give him the legitimacy he craves.

Phase Two
It is far less likely that Trump will even have to get to this phase, but it’s possible. Phase Two would only happen if he obviously loses the Electoral College. In this phase, he sues any and everyone in his path. He demands that the legislatures of swing states not validate the vote. Anything that is an hindrance to his victory he sues into oblivion. In this phase, his goal is to simply cause enough doubt in the eyes of the public that should he lose, he can always claim he really won. This opens up a lot of options as things progress. He knows that SCOTUS probably has his back and, as such, he can make sure that his Electors are certified when the time comes and he “wins.” Remember, the country is both extremely divided, the center-Left is extremely ineffectual and generally everyone is too apathetic to do anything. And, like any autocrat, all Trump cares about is power, so fuck you. He just doesn’t care about anything but power and greed. That’s it. As long he has power, you can complain on social media all you want, it just doesn’t matter.

Phase Three
I really, really don’t expect it to go this far. House Trump simply has too many tricks up its sleeves. And, yet, if somehow Trump STILL faces losing the election, Trump is simply going to throw down the gauntlet. He’s going to break the final taboo — the peaceful transition of power. There are too many variables for me to be able to predict anything specific, but something like Trump directly calls for a popular revolt by MAGA that then prompts the U.S. Military to step in is at least within the realm of possibility. Or it could be the other way — Trump is so extremely ham-handed in his theft of the 2020 Election that it’s the 60% of the electorate that hates his guts that rises up and then the military really faces a conundrum — if Trump is “legally” president, but only through a lack of a free and fair election, what do they do? And that would be how we would have an actual civil war. That’s how the country simply implodes and a lot of people lose their lives unnecessarily. How long this civil war would last would be another issue. I struggle to imagine states leaving the Union like after the election of 1860, but it is possible martial law might be declared and Trump would simply rule by decree.

The issue is, House Trump has the full support of the fascist Republican Party and, as such, it makes a lot of sense that in the end they would be willing to follow Trump into a direct fascist dictatorship. Once they consolidated power, there really wouldn’t be any restraints on House Trump. There might be a lot of happytalk about how there would be elections “later on,” but before that could happen House Trump would call up a Constitutional Convention that would, at last, codify their control over the country.

Then Trump’s dystopian nightmare vision of America would become a reality. Mass arrests. People being pushed out of windows. Trump have Putin-levels of control over the government and society. This, of course, on a macro level is going to happen one way or another very, very soon. But people keep thinking it will be Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo who does it 10 years from now. It could very well be Trump himself, with significant assistance from Interior Minister Bill Barr.

And, as such, unless a lot of people are willing to back up their smack talk on social media in the real world that will involve real world risks, House Trump will be around for decades to come. I’m thinking at least 20, maybe 40 or more. I guess the United States had to end sometime. I just never thought it would end in my lifetime.

Russia’s Possible Coming Invasion of Belarus



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, I’m no expert on any of this, but I can make some general, educated observations about what’s going on in Belarus.

For a number of years now, Putin has had his eyes on Belarus. The difference between Belarus and Ukraine is the former is significantly smaller and doesn’t really have the centuries-long animosity towards Russia that the latter has. So, it wouldn’t be existential for Putin to swoop in and gobble Belarus up.

The recent protests in Belarus give Putin exactly the cover he would need to invade the small country. He would say he was “invited in” because of the instability and, well, that would be that. He would never leave.

There might be significant opposition to such a land grab by the people of Belarus, but nothing a big as what Putin would face if he tried to do something similar with Ukraine.

Since it is August, the shittiest month of the year, it would make a lot of sense for Putin to swoop in and eat Belarus. And, really, the issue for me is there haven’t been any reports of any major troop movements by the Russian military (at least as far as I know.) Putin continues to move tanks around the area, but nothing — not even a “drill” — that might indicate any large-scale invasion of Belarus is afoot.

That could change very quickly, however if things continue to deteriorate in Belarus and it appear as if democratic forces might actually win.

So, it would seem we have something of a waiting game ahead of us. It continues to be curious that Putin hasn’t done anything major with Ukraine give the complete and total pass the Trump Administration would give him if he did so.

Trump Is Playing With Fire With The Bogus Durham Investigation



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Trump was supposed to lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College just like in 2016. Just after his acquittal by callow Senate Republicans he was giving a very loud standing ovation by these same Republicans in a private meeting.

Trump knew all he had to do was absolutely placate the MAGA base and the rest would take care of itself.

Then COVID19 happened.

Now things are a bit more tricky. Trump’s natural inculcation is to use the bullshit Durham Investigation into the origins of the TrumpRussia investigation to indict Joe Biden and be done with it. He would kill two birds with one stone — he would “prove” that TrumpRussia was a “hoax” and he would knock out Biden so he easily wins re-election.

I am fully prepared to state that this may still work. In fact, it will work. If we’ve gotten this far down the road to tyranny, then something as simple as brazenly indicting Joe Biden for political gain is a lulz. All they have to do is indict Biden a just the right moment so there’s some confusion about it all as people go to the polls. By the time everything gets straightened out, Trump will be ranting about the need for a Constitutional Convention and MAGA will simply dismiss people people’s rage at what happened as the usual “Orange Man Bad” liberals being “triggered.”

As an aside, I think we might be willing to think outside the box a little bit — what if Durham waits until AFTER the election to indict Biden and the whole thing is used as a negotiating tactic to make sure TRUMP isn’t indicted after he leaves office? The only reason why I’m not prepared to accept this as a possibility is Trump is a fucking moron and his actual personal political skill is little more than a grunt.

Anyway, there is a least a tiny chance that while indicting Biden as the “October Surprise” gets the job done, it might also be something so outrageous and on the nose that even people who otherwise “don’t have time for politics” might, at last sit up and take notice. It’s not likely, but it’s possible — I mean, if you’re cool with “tender care facilities” what’s a little election theft between fascists?

But it is possible that some pretty unexpected things might happen if Trump gets too greedy and indicts Biden directly. If he was smart — which he is not — he would get really close to Biden, but not indict Biden himself. But MAGA people are so absolute in their bloodlust when it comes to the Durham Investigation that I could totally see them lulzing this and making a significant strategic error.

I’m not prepared to get my hopes up, though. More likely than not, the country is simply too divided. And, if anything, history books will count the indictment of Biden as the moment the United States, for intents and purposes, finally became a fascist state.

I keep trying to come up with solutions or what people can do on a practical level to combat this, but I guess I’m not smart enough. Everything I can think of involves getting at least 3.5% of the population to participate in mass protests and general strikes.

The United States simply has no political history of something so big — we’re not France, after all, so lulz.

America In Brown & Red



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I know way too many fucking fascists in real life. I, personally, have come to accept that not only has fascism taken over the country I love, but that Trump is going to brazenly steal the 2020 Election. What’s more, about 38% of the electorate is going to embrace this theft rather willingly.

There a number of significant macro trends that make all this possible and they all express themselves in the guise of one Donald John Trump. He’s an avatar for some pretty intractable problems in the United State’s body politic. What bothers me is a lot of Twitter liberals who should know better are deluding themselves about what’s going on.

These Twitter liberals are so busy scoring points on social media with memes they think will “destroy” House Trump, that they are totally oblivious to what’s going on in the real world. Many, many people are too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to “have time for politics” and, as such, they have only a vague awareness of what’s going on. All they know is, on an abstract level, Trump is protecting them from violent progressives (Communists) who want to “destroy the sanctity of marriage” and burn Federal court houses.

What’s more, their abstract fears about what these evil liberal progressives (Communists) MIGHT do are so all consuming that they honestly don’t care about the very real fascist things House Trump is actually doing right now. And so when House Trump inevitably indicts Joe Biden in late October as part of the bogus Durham Investigation, they’ll lulz it. And if they do ever get around to figuring out the whole thing was done to steal the election, it’ll be so long after the fact as to be politically pointless.

Then these very same people will simply shrug and tell people like me to “shut up if you know what’s good for you.” These Good Germans will get upset when people protest (if they do) when Trump steals the fall election in an extremely brazen fashion.

As I’ve mentioned before, what Trump wants to do is throw so much interference at the 2020 Election that we will struggle to pinpoint what, exactly what the thing that did it. That’s what he wants. He doesn’t want to do anything so absolutely brazen that American’s self-perception kicks in an people realize what he’s up to.

And, yet, with things like the Durham Investigation, he’s setting himself up to do just that. The whole thing is fucking bullshit and when Durham indicts (or whatever) Biden in late October the whole thing is going to be a little bit too on the nose for a lot of people. And, yet, there is such absolute bloodlust for just that on the part of the entire Republican Party that the whole thing may get out of control.

Not that indicting Biden isn’t going to work — it obviously will. And, generally, most people are just going to take the indictment at face value and Trump will cruise to victory. But there’s at least a greater than zero chance that people who otherwise might not care might sit up and take notice. It’s possible, not probable.

Remember those macro trends. The problems that caused Trump in the first place aren’t going anywhere. So, even if somehow we magically are able to frog walk Trump out of the White House at some point, he’s going to be seen as a political martyr by the Right. They are going to do everything in their power to bring down the Biden Administration as soon as possible.

There are no easy answers to this problem. The reason is — if Twitter liberals finally stopped trying to score points on Twitter and took the actions necessary in real fucking life to actually halt the ascent of fascism in the United States there will be blood, as they say.

Republicans have already crossed the Rubicon into fascism — they’re ready to make the jump from insane rhetoric on FOX News to murdering people in cold blood for political reasons. Should the center-Left get woke to this cold hard fact, well, I guess we’re going to have a civil war.

But I’m reluctant to say that.

The center-Left in the Untied States is so fucking weak that what’s more likely to happen is simply the bad guys will win and after the shock of Trump brazenly stealing the election wears off, we’re going to get used to people getting pushed out of windows.

That’s probably going to be the last stage in our transformation to a “managed democracy” like Russia in the sense that Trump will have to purge the media first to get away with it. Can’t very well make people mad by pushing people out windows if no body knows about it because OANN now owns CNN, now can you?

If Russia is any indication, what will happen is pop culture in the Unites States will decouple completely from politics. Only people like me will scream at the top of our lungs as to what’s going on (and get pushed out a window for doing it.) The average person might take note that suddenly CNN and FOX news are indistinguishable, but that’s about it.

Because of macro trends, this is the future of America. There might be the occasional hiccup because Trump is such a fucking incompetent, moronic self-own artist, but the general we have to wait until the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America before any of this changes. And, given that the entire point of MAGA is to STOP the Browning of America, lulz, maybe it will never happen.

I don’t have any answers as to how to prevent any of this. I would, however, suggest that we’re now in the part of America’s transition to a fascist state where you what you do in real life matters. Scoring points, or thinking up a powerful meme doesn’t mean shit when Little Green Men are snatching people off the street or, later, pushing people out windows.

I used to think Americans weren’t Russians and, by definition, would not allow a fascist, autocratic “managed democracy” to happen here. But I realize now I was being naive. It can –and will — happen here.