Absolutely no one listens to me, but I do find this latest post by Trump on Truth Social….alarming.
What makes this so alarming is Trump has done something he rarely does — go transactional. He is telling people what he wants. He’s pouring gasoline on what could be a very volatile situation by telling MAGA govenors what he wants them to do.
And the pressure on the other side will continue to grow for Biden to Federalize the Texas National Guard — and any other guard that stands in his way. Which, in turn, might cause every mouth breathing MAGA fucktard with an AR-15 to rush to the scene.
That, in turn, will cause something akin to Insurrection 2.0, if not a Second American Civil War.
One of the strangest, most curious political developments in modern American history is the rise of the anti-FBI Right. Now, obviously, this is a quirk caused specifically by how the fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right hates that their Fuhrer is being held accountable, at last.
So, they get all squirrely and attack the source of the problem — the FBI. And, yet, in 2016, the FBI was described as “Trumplandia.” So, it’s all very strange. I suppose the point of all of this is, as MAGA grows more and more radical they are so determined to destroy anything that stands in their way that they don’t stop to think that most of the FBI agrees with them.
It’s one of those things where the FBI, by just doing its job, finds itself at loggerheads with a group it supports (in general.) This is a very unstable situation and it could be that once MAGA gains power again they will burn the whole thing to the ground and replace it with something a lot closer to the SS or SA than what you might think — the gestapo.
This whole situation is very surreal. And there’s no ready endgame. And, as such, we continued to be in a lingering, chronic crisis. The key issue is — there will be no “pivot” to DeSantis or anyone else for that matter. The MAGA base is enraged by the very legal, very justified raid on Mar-a-Lago and, as such, GQP elected officials are being dragged into a more and more absolute stance when it comes to Trump.
As such, there could very well come a point where the FBI, despite it all its empathy for the fucking MAGA New Right fascists, could, well, be “restructured” by the second Trump Administration to the point that it’s nothing more than an arm of the Republican Party.
America is far, far more unstable than we’re willing to admit to ourselves. Trump is so deranged and stupid that he could very well go transactional and tell his more and more radical followers to attack the FBI directly. The FBI HQ in DC, agents and various field offices across the country could be attacked by AR-15 welding MAGA nutjobs who want to martyr themselves for the Dear Leader.
I know that sounds very hysterical, but I also know that that is now at least within the realm of possibility.
I hate to break it to you folks, but Trump now has America’s fate in his tiny, tiny hands. For some inexplicable reason, we’re reaching a political Singularity whereby two absolutes are going to collide — the absolute desire to protect the Fuhrer on the part of MAGA and the government’s absolute need to hold Trump criminally accountable.
I have long poo-pooed the idea that we’re going to have any sort of MAGA civil war or “revolution.” And, yet, it would not take too many MAGA lone wolves using their beloved AR-15s before something akin to a “MAGA revolution” would be marketed by the press.
There’s only be one time when Trump went something akin to transactional and that was January 6th. He did it because he was desperate and he thought maybe he could stay in power by simply inciting a mob to scare the shit out of Mike Pence.
So, if there was a real chance that Trump was going to be indicted and arrested, he could very well feel so trapped that he starts to demand that states begin to secede from the Union to put pressure on the Federal government to back off. If he did something so dumb, I could see Arizona, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina, West Virginia, (maybe) Florida and definitely a number of low-population mountain states could do just that.
And, as is usual with Trump’s bullshit — he wouldn’t at least a first, even mean it. He would just be desperate and want to scare the Federal government into giving up. Only when things inevitably went out of control would he get really into destroying the country.
But that is very much very fantastical at the moment. A lot would still have to happen before Trump would feel so trapped that he would actually go transactional and demand states leave the Union.
Yet, it’s something to think about because MAGA is definitely radicalizing. And that radicalization is only going to get worse. To the point that when they steal the 2024 election the choice between autocracy and civil war could be so stark that there really will be no endgame.
The biggest question of the moment when it comes to Trump and all the fucking secrets he stole from the U.S. Government is, of course, “But why?” I struggle to imagine that Trump is smart enough to think of, in real time, any sort of sinister plot when he was leaving office.
So, here’s what I think happened.
Trump is both criminally incompetent and interested in our nuclear secrets for some reason and so, it’s very possible that as he was leaving the White House he just threw a bunch of shit into boxes. He didn’t have any idea what was in any of the boxes, other than he had, at some point, been interested in whatever was in them.
Now, let me be clear — this is both an extremely charitable explanation for what happened and no excuse for him to avoid prosecution. I said he was criminally incompetent. So, he should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. And it doesn’t give us a ready explanation as to why he would both delay, delay, delay giving the documents back AND lie about still having them. But the case could be made that once the documents became an issue, his natural asshole tendencies kicked in and he just refused to cooperate because that’s just who he is.
And, yet, if things really got violent when he was indicted, I would give Trump a deal — we won’t prosecute you if you promise not to ever run for president again for the rest of your life. And as part of the deal, he would have to make some sort of statement demanding that everyone calm down and stop killing each other.
There’s a lot wrong with all of this, of course. We still don’t know the fullest extent of what really happened. We still don’t know the “why.” What I proposed is just a theory. And Trump has so many people who hate what he stands for as much as I do, that it’s possible we’re past the Event Horizon.
No possible deal will be offered because that train has left the station. And Trup wouldn’t even agree to it, even if it was offered to him. He wants to be POTUS again and he’s willing to burn the most powerful nation in the world to the ground to achieve that goal.
Ok, I’m a notable idiot. I screw up a lot. I get things wrong because I’m too lazy to look them up. In short, I often live up to my reputation as a “failed reporter.” And, yet, when I listened to the above podcast where the interlocutors got REALLY EXCITED about how, essentially, it was a big screw up to raid Mar-a-Lago….I was taken aback. Something felt off.
Some of it was how the implication of the conversation was that Trump was “back in the game” and there was absolutely no downside to any of this. It definitely felt to me as if the two people talking thought it was settled — Trump was pretty much the president again already.
Then the events of today happened and I found myself thinking about the podcast conversation above. While I’m sure — sure — that Trump can figure out some way to elude justice yet again, I suspect Ron DeSantis feels a little bit better about his chances of being the 2024 Republican nominee now that there is evidence that Trump stole America’s most classified secrets — having to do with nuclear technology!
Anyway. I found the podcast above annoying and presumptuous, to say the least.
As of this writing, Trump has announced on Truth Social that he is going to “encourage” the release of some of the legal documents associated with the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Ok, at the moment, things look kind of dark for that fucking malignant dingus. But, to date, Trump has always, always, ALWAYS escaped justice. So, how does he do it this time?
Announce One idea is, if Trump realizes he’s done a Big Boy Crime and he’s in Serious trouble, that he can always simply tell the Republican Establishment to fuck off and announce for 2024, like, NOW. This would blow out the newscycle for 24 hours and, lulz, by the time we get our bearings again Trump will say no matter what he has absolute immunity because he’s running for POTUS.
Fuck You, Lib In this scenario, he simply shrugs the whole thing off. He knows his base and, in the end, he has Hitler-levels of fidelity from MAGA and all that happens is the two sides difference of opinion about Trump grows more and more sharp and severe. And, in the end, if he gets indicted, he just uses it to fundraise off of and to cry about how he’s being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants to turn everyone gay. Ugh.
Something Else Happens Never count Trump out. This is August, after all, and there’s a good chance that something huge could happen that diverts our attention from Trump and his stealing (and selling?) of secrets long enough that he escapes, AGAIN. This is not really a strategy on his part, but it is something that could very well happen at any moment.
Go Transactional This is probably the darkest of the possible scenarios. Trump, in a panic, freaks out and tells his followers to get violent. The only reason why I say this is even a possibility is — what if this is like the Access Hollywood Tape situation where he didn’t really take it seriously at first…until he did? It could be the same thing. It could be that he’s going to lulz this…and then when he realizes that it’s actually gaining some traction, he freaks out and sicks his “shock troops” on the government. And then, at last, all the people who come to this site looking for information about a Second American Civil War will get their wish.
He Doesn’t Escape This is the least likely of situations. It’s so unlikely, that I don’t even know what it would look like. Though, I suppose, it might look a lot like what never happened while he was in office — The Pence Pivot. In this case, it would be the DeSantis Pivot or something. After a brief freak out — in silence — on the part of the Republicans, they would pivot to Ron DeSantis as the standard bearer and they would act like Trump is a lulz from the distance past.
Frankenstein’s Monster In this scenario, the absolute worst happens — at least for Republicans. He both becomes extremely radoactive (no pun intended) and, yet, refuses to go away. In fact, the fact that he’s indicted will only make him more angry and, in his own way, stronger. The base will forgive him for being a fucking traitor and if you throw in how we’re an anocracy not a democracy — he fucks with things to the point that he wins in 2024. His veep will be Gen. Mike Flynn and we all sit around waiting for the Russians to Red Dawn us.
The mystery of the moment is why in the world would Trump have all this Top Secret information — including, apparently, nuclear secrets? What the what? Even if you are the most charitable and say it’s all an “accident” that still leaves a lot of questions.
You mean to tell me, Trump just randomly got some of the most top secret document that America possesses because it would be “cool?” Come to think of it, Trump is a big enough idiot, so I suppose it’s at least possible that was his logic.
But while Trump is very stupid, we also know he’s very craven.
So, it’s at least possible that he has a movie-level understanding of secrets and thought he might be able to make a quick buck off of them by selling them. Even though Official Serious Person Tom Nichols has made it clear that’s not how Top Secrets work. But that’s how TRUMP might have thought they work.
Anyway, the point is, the “why” is a ticking time bomb for the entire country. What happens if we have definitive, cold, hard evidence that the reason why Jared got $2 billion from the Saudis was access to those secrets? Then you have something of a Singularity whereby on one side you have the absolute need to go after Trump criminally running up against the absolute need to protect the Dear Leader on the part of MAGA.
It goes without saying that that is a very unstable situation.
The consensus that is developing around Trump and these secrets is so bad that I half think we should try to impeach him AGAIN so he can never run for office again. But, I think, on a political level things may get dark for Trump for the next few days, but ultimately this will simply be one of the, say, top three Bad Things that Trump has done.
On a political basis, he’ll bounce back with the MAGA base for various reasons, he’ll announce for 2024 and away we go.
I’m growing exasperated with Twitter liberals who are completely oblivious to how popular the prospect of white autocratic rule is among a lot of Americans — especially the ever-crucial “Traditionalist” vote.
We have the makings of a massive clusterfuck in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.
Look at it this way — it’s possible that we could have cold, hard proof that Trump is criminally exposed for the January 6th insurrection and Republicans still win the House in 2022 and Trump still becomes speaker. Speaker Trump will impeached both Biden and Harris repeatedly and continue to stoke violence at every turn.
And, what’s more, given our status as an autocracy without an autocrat, even if you somehow magically neutralized Trump, the MAGA movement is so potent that someone else would step in to finish the job he started. In a sense, Trump has already wrapped up his historical job — show others that America is ready for autocracy.
But wait, there’s more.
Our transition into autocracy could still be bungled and we end up using WMD on ourselves and sending the whole world hurtling off a precipice into a dark and unknown future.
History has awoken. And either you see how dire things are, or you don’t. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, and so it is at least possible that things will be blown up rather abruptly. At some point between now and January 2025, everything we take for granted could be suddenly put into question.
Everything could grow existential. A lot of the folly of the modern center-Left were the issue of proper use of pronouns is more important than defeating real-world fascism will come to and end. Even your most fey latte swilling hipster will sit up and take notice with a gun is put in their face and they can’t use the Internet because of an EMP burst.
I have no easy answers for you. Get ready, is all I can say.
I used to think that Republicans have some sort of huge civil war between its MAGA base and the pro-Ukraine Establishment. But, now, oh boy. It appears that what I thought was going to be a civil war may turn out to be more of just a drunken scuffle.
It seems as though the vast majority of Republicans are going to go all-in with their support for Putin. So, should there be a war between Russia and Ukraine the lines of domestic American politics will be pretty clear — Democrats support Ukraine and Republican support Russia.
If that doesn’t make your head spin, I don’t know what will. After 70 years of ranting about how Russia was a threat to the American way, Republicans are going to collectively throw in the towel because of a fail reality TV star. But, as iI keep saying, all of this is the macro trends associated with a declining empire paying themselves out.
Something like this was going to happen the moment Obama won a second term and white people began to freak out about their imminent loss of power within American society. (Something about Obama’s *second* term freaked white people out the way his first term did not.)
So, now, have a potential situation where the vast majority of Republicans side with America’s historic geopolitical adversary because their presumptive 2024 nominee has such a tight bond to the white conservative volk that they can’t dare cross him, even though his support for Putin is comically unseemly.
I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be really weird. But that seems to be the direction we’re going. If there are a number of miscalculations across the board, it could be that it’s THAT that costs Republicans Congress in 2022. (Though, let’s be honest, Republicans have so rigged the system at this point that they’re going to win, even if they don’t win. Or, they’re not going to lose, as is always the cause with autocrats.)
It could be that not even something marketed as WW3 can prevent our decent into autocracy or civil war and, in the end, our civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe only makes a bad WW3 situation worse because we’re going to vaporize ourselves into the Stone Age.
While I’m not predicting that people will stop dying of COVID should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine, I am suggesting that our perception of COVID19 will change dramatically.
But one big caveat — I don’t think there’s going to be a war between the Russians and Ukrainians. Or, at least, not a big one. All of this is just another very expensive power play on Putin’s part to get a summit with Biden. He’s getting that summit on Tuesday and so, lulz, everything should calm down after that.
And, yet, let’s imagine that didn’t happen.
Let’s imagine that a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. We need to appreciate that it’s possible that COVID19 would go from being seeing a unique pandemic to a regular part of life — or endemic. A lot of this would depend on how big the war was, how long it lasted and what it’s endgame turned out to be.
But there is a finite amount of media attention. If the eyes of the world are on a big chunk of Ukraine being eaten by Russia, it’s inevitable that the sexxy COVID19 pandemic would be seen as simply endemic and something we have to put up with from here on out.
The only way this would change in the future would be if a REALLY BAD new variant of COVID popped out and we were talking about millions, not thousands dying from it at any particular moment.
I guess the whole point of this is — a major regional war in Europe would jiggle everything in a big way. Everything from the January 6th insurrection investigation to all of the other Trump crimes we’re looking into to the COVID19 pandemic would be pushed off the front page in favor of a huge war.
But none of that has happened yet. We’ll have to wait and see if it does.
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