‘Trump Train’ To ‘Crazy Train’ — The State Of Republican Impeachment Messaging

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let’s go through how Republicans are messaging impeachment right now, shall we? As you read this, remember that Republicans have one goal and one goal only — keep Trump in power so he can rig the election in 2020. That’s it. That’s their only goal. That’s all they need to have happened for it to be a win. They are completely devoid of any shame and crave power for power’s sake. The no longer believe in liberal democracy and everything is wrapped up in the cult of personality wrapped around Trump.

It seems as though the current Big Lie is that Schiff somehow was in cahoots Orange Crush. This is demonstrably inaccurate, at least from what I can tell right now. This is also mixed in with the suggestion that Orange Crush has some sort of nefarious “agenda.” While this is likely to be extremely effective with the mouth breathing MAGA base, it works solely to “own the moment” on Twitter and deflect from the fact that White House, itself, released documentation confirming what was in the complaint.

Also, not one, but TWO major presidential scandals were caused by people who weren’t exactly without an agenda. Mark Felt was Deep Throat because he was mad he got passed over to head the FBI. Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg literally conspired with Matt Drudge to setup Bill Clinton and he still got impeached.

Next, we have the “don’t fuck with us” strategy of Republican messaging. This involves throwing around the type of bonkers Trump rhetoric in an effort to raise the stakes so high that it grows to be so dangerous that nothing happens. The only problem with this is there’s at least a chance that one, someone gets murdered, too, it only causes the other side to grow more radicalized. Instead of intimidating Democrats into backing down, you cause the creation of a Radical Resistance.

Throw into this the very serious possibility that the Trump Train is now the Crazy Train and Republicans have a problem. As of this moment, if you accept that all they have to do is keep Trump in power through Nov. 2020 to win, then, in a sense, they have a 50/50 shot. But if you throw in the “known unknown” of how completely bonkers Trump may grow over the coming days, then those chances don’t really go down, but the risks definitely increase significantly in ways that are not easy to calculate.

‘These are the times that try men’s souls.’ #RadicalResistance

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

When the only thing standing between your nation and tyranny is the gates of insanity, you got a problem. The reason why I just don’t see any practical way out of this situation is the systemic issues that caused Trump’s rise in the first place aren’t going anywhere. And the ideological rot at the core of the Republican Party is so extensive that the two sides are now playing entirely two different games.

Democrats think they’re playing chess. Republicans just plopped an AR-15 on the table. So, in a sense, there are literally only two things preventing Trump from finally doing away with any pretense of caring about the Constitution –he’s rapidly cracking under the strain of looming impeachment and I just don’t see the U.S. Military following any order on his part to arrest the Democratic members of Congress. That may still happen, but not in a way that I can easily predict.

In a sense, in the short term, we have only one scenario whereby we’re given a limited repreve from a Putin style “managed democracy” — a President Pelosi. But that would be a very short term solution to an existential problem. The Republican Party no longer believes in anything other than power for power’s sake. You notice this the most at the edges. I mean, come on Brit Hume, what’s going on? Hume is actively working on messaging for MAGA under the cloak of some sort of pretend objectivity.

Really, the true tragedy is we’re careening towards a situation where only a massive, horrific event that can be directly pinned on Trump in a clear, unambiguous manner would give us any sort of national absolution. I definitely don’t want that, so we’re much more likely to have either a Trump “win” or such a muddled resolution to this crisis that Trump’s legacy wins, if not Trump himself.

When half a dozen people around the president are all acting like G. Gordon Liddy, then, well, obviously the Democrats have to respond accordingly. I have repeatedly suggested a political radicalization of the so-called “resistance.” Only some sort of Radical Resistance might, just might, confront MAGA on its own terms.

But Democrats now represent such a broad spectrum of people, the necessary political radicalization is unlikely to happen in time. And, sadly, if it does, it will happen in the darkness. The Resistance will be less an effete liberal talking point and more a literal French Resistance type of thing. That the military is likely to sit this one out, no matter what goes both ways. Should Trump not be convicted in the Senate, then, well, he simply conspires to throw the election again — on any number of levels — and flips the switch on weaponizing the ICE camp infrastructure.

I would like to note something — The Atlantic has proposed that MAGA’s strategy is to make impeachment carry such enormous costs that it doesn’t happen in some way. Well, I find such a position unnecessarily defeatist. It’s similar to the slogan, “Wayward sisters, part in peace,” the days between Lincoln’s election and the firing on Fort Sumter. It’s inherently cowardly. Either someone, somewhere is politically brave enough to stand up to Trump and the fascist MAGA hordes, to take a risk for once by showing some courage, or we are no better than the Weimar Republic.

Maybe it’s too late. Maybe the center-Left simply doesn’t have it in it to save the Republic. But, as I keep saying, Trump’s a galactic brain self-own artist, so he’s likely to do something — yet again — that is not exactly in his “political genius” best interest.

Only time will tell. Only time will tell.

V-Log: Idle, Incoherent Rambling About #Writing A #Novel & Impeachment #RadicalResistance

Some thoughts.

‘None Dare Call It Treason’ #RadicalResistance

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me be clear for the record again, I’m in no way suggesting violence. But I am suggesting the opposition to the MAGA peril to our democracy be more passionate, cogent and, dare I say radical on an ideological level.

The reason why I say this is, we were so busy worrying about the MAGA base, we never thought about that Trump’s cult of personality would infect people we believed would be “the adults in the room.” A prime example of this on a practical level is some Very Smart Conservatives are lulzing at Rudy, Barr and Pompeo (and Gorka!) literally racing around the globe openly pressuring foreign powers to give Trump the cover to pardon Manafort (and maybe Flynn).

This is when things get really, really dark. Not only do All The President’s Men not really feel that they’re doing anything wrong, they are prepared to pull “evidence” that Manafort was “framed” out of their butt to change the narrative as we lurch forward with impeachment. What they want is to give the Infowars comment section red meat. Throw in a possible bot attack on the part of the Russians and there’s a decent chance Chris Wallace will declare impeachment “dead” because of the “bad optics” of the attorney general releasing a report that says the entire Mueller investigation was a deep state plot to make the president look bad.

Ugh.

I feel sick to my stomach pacing out this scenario. I feel this way because outlets like The New York Times are so busy paying Maggie Haberman and “The Vogel” to play the Trump Whisperer — not to mention doxing Orange Crush! — that they are completely flat footed on the gravity of this fast-moving crisis. If the entire Executive Branch is not only run like Trump Org (that is a criminal enterprise) AND nobody is acting in good faith because they don’t believe in liberal democracy in the first place, then, well, we’re fuck if we don’t radicalize on a political level.

I used to say when I was running ROKon Magazine in Seoul that “Every problem is just an opportunity in disguise.” Because Trump is demonstrably at risk of losing his mind — as I have written repeatedly — then there’s both peril and opportunity going forward. They’re peril because if we can’t burn House Trump to the ground, then, well, that’s it. The moment Trump escapes conviction in the Senate he calls up Putin or MBS and does it all over again. Putin directly hacks the 2020 election. And if that doesn’t work, Putin or MBS — or Peter Thiel — could simply bribe the Electoral College in masse. Trump pardons Thiel and the quislings of Fox Bullshit Mt. have Bolton riding a Roomba with glee.

The ICE camp infrastructure is weaponized, all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench do what they were appointed to do — destroy liberal democracy — and America is no longer exceptional, no longer a shining city on a hill, we’re American Carnage.

If The Radical Resistance wins, meanwhile, there’s a least a chance for national renewal. To make America great again, to coin a phrase. But it would take a national outrage the likes of which we have never seen in peacetime. So, I’m dubious. In fact, at this point, I fear the entire fate of the nation rests on Trump being a criminally incompetent self-own artist. That’s how Trump is extremely dangerous to the future of the Republican Party.

But it wouldn’t be in the way you think. In Red States, the Republican Party would continue to thrive. In the rest of the country, however, the stench of tyranny would whoft off the rotting husk of the party of Lincoln. And that’s the best case scenario. We have to stick the landing. If it’s a draw, MAGA wins. They have no shame, they crave power for power’s sake and they don’t believe in liberal democracy.

I am beginning to think only the military — and Trump being bonkers — stands in the way of the MAGA cult essentially bringing the United States to its knees. They already have, in a sense, but we still have a small window of opportunity.

But when Barr releases that bullshit report of his, well, either we save ourselves or we don’t.

Wargaming Impeachment

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

When I was in college, there was an urban legend where people were sitting around drinking and having fun when someone mentioned that they stole someone’s vanity license tag. In Virginia, such tags are no big deal, but in the North, they’re often very expensive. The story goes that the person who learns this is from the North and they grow enraged. That’s what’s going on in America right now — House Trump stole America’s vanity license tag (our liberty) and we’re in shock. House Trump, meanwhile, is lulzing it all off.

What, you stole my license plate?

It’s easy to despair when thinking about impeachment because the stakes are existential. Let’s go through some datapoints to illuminate why this is the case.

Bill Barr has apparently been preparing an “Anti-Mueller Report” designed to debunk the entire thing. That not only would he run around the globe in search of dirt to debunk a report that Trump screams at the top of his lungs exonerated him, but most of the Right’s inteligensia is totally cool with the whole thing is extremely disturbing. This is the setup to Barr very, very soon holding a press conference “proving” that Trump was “set up” by the Deep State.

What’s so troubling about this in the extreme is how brazen Barr and Pompeo have been in all of this. They have broken so many laws in the process trying to debunk the Mueller Report at the behest of the president that the whole thing is surreal and existential. The kicker is, it doesn’t matter what Barr even finds — he’s setting up a battle royale of historic proportions.

The MAGA base will latch on to whatever he found to such an extent that they will completely ignore the biggest political scandal in American history. This will give the messaging cover that Republican lawmakers need going forward with impeachment and Trump is acquitted in the Senate after a super-fast trial of maybe a hour total. Since the Republican Party is a cult that has no shame and only wants power for power’s sake, this is a win for them no matter what. Trump is free go full Putin between now and the Nov. 2020 election and darkness falls. They weaponize the ICE infrastructure and the American spirit is squashed.

And, yet, while all things being equal that seems the most likely outcome, there are some serious, serious problems for House Trump. One is there is serious momentum behind impeachment. Also, every day Republicans have no cogent answer as to why Barr and Pompeo (and Gorka!) (and Rudy!) were racing roughshod around the globe in an effort to pull a conspiracy theory out of their butts is a day the Good Guys grow in power. If they can’t release their bullshit within a matter of days, not weeks, even if they manage to come up with a Grand Unified Theory Of The Deep State Plot Against Trump they will have lost everyone but the 35% MAGA base of the electorate.

Also, House Trump is now so unmoored from any connection to liberal democracy that they are their own worst enemy. They no longer even pretend to care about facts, or law or ethics. They are willing to destroy everything in defense of House Trump. There’s a real chance that even if they manage to convince the MAGA base that the Dear Leader is, in fact, infallible, that the rest of the country will look at them in amazement that they are oblivious to what they’ve done.

Really, I guess what I’m trying to convey is the stakes are so high that if it’s a draw, Trump wins. He is free to do exactly what he’s wanted to do all a long — become America’s Putin. We don’t have free and fair elections, the ICE infrastructure is weaponized and people — like ME! — are simply “disappeared.”

If we can’t not only remove Trump but put him on trial and ultimately send him to prison for the reason of his life, all is lost. He’ll just keep doing what he’s been doing, only for Ivanka and Don Jr. And given that there are half a dozen would-be Trumps in the pipeline who know how to use the path that Trump has paved, things grow even more problematic. I honestly don’t know how this doesn’t end in a dystopia.

I wish I was overreacting, but I’m not. Again, as I have repeatedly stated, the only reason at this point that maybe we might have a possibility of victory is Trump is a galactic-brain self-own artist. And he’s going to crack under the pressure of impeachment, no matter what. That’s it, that’s all I got.

Otherwise darkness falls.

Things Are Growing Dark — We Are So Fucked

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls


I have long proposed that in the end, it will be Trump himself who brings his administration to its knees. He’s a galactic brain self-own artist and mentally unstable to boot.

That House Trump would lulz the active participation of both Bill Barr and Pompeo running around the world in a frantic effort to undermine the foundations of the Mueller Report — in broad daylight, no less — indicates that the rot within the executive branch is far deeper than anyone of could possibly imagine. Republicans are already poo-pooing all of this and going so far as to conflate it with what the whistleblower accused the House Trump of.

So, it seems to me that there’s a real chance that we’ve just about reached an endgame. And that endgame is 40% of the electorate — the MAGA base — is so detached from any notion of law or democracy that Trump through mindfucking, spin and messaging can stop the drive to impeachment in its tracks and that will be that. The bad guys will have won.

And, really, there’s only one reason and one reason only why this might not work — Donald Trump. Trump is now a tyrant the likes of which America hasn’t seen since its foundation. He’s the mad king. He’s our King George III. And about 40% of the electorate doesn’t care. In fact, they love it. They love the whole thing. They want more of it, not less.

So, I predict that Pompeo will return to the United States within a few days House Trump will lay out how they’ve “proved” that the Mueller Report was a deep state hack job and that will be that. They will own the narrative, at least with the base and Chris Wallace will say the “bad optics” exonerate Trump yet again. Everything that’s happened in the last week will be forgotten and they weaponize the ICE infrastructure at some point over the course of Trump’s second term (if not sooner.)

But, like I said before — Trump’s a self-own artist and bonkers. So, that’s our only chance of escaping a Russian-style “managed democracy.” The “anti-Mueller Report” will give the MAGA talking heads something to crow about and America dies.

A Republic, if you can keep it.

Bill Barr Is Not Q — He Is In A Lot Of Trouble, However

I dunno.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls


I have finally gotten a hang of what’s at if not the center of this growing clusterfuck, least at it’s soul: Bill Barr at the behest of Donald Trump was running around the world in a methodical effort to undermine the basis of the Mueller Report.

This is bad on its face, but it gets worse when it appears as though Trump was using his power as president to strong arm governments around the world to find the magical mystery pixie dust beans that would give him the cover to pardon ( both ) Manafort (and probably Flynn).

That Trump was so far gone in his disregard for any semblance of shame that he thought he could use the mindfucks assocaited with the Stormy Daniels playbook is rather staggering.

And, really, it’s difficult to see this as anything but a belly flop for Republicans because Trump is not a political genius. If he was, he would keep quiet, play golf and essentially say, “Ok, fucking convict me.” He wouldn’t be convicted, he would be free screw with the 2020 election and he could sail off into the sunset with Rudy.

But, no, Trump is slowly losing his mind. So he’s actively not only aggravating the electorate on a retail politics level, he’s making it nearly impossible for Republicans to come up with any form of messaging as we head into an impeachment battle.

We still aren’t in a traditional crisis because, well Republicans have no shame and the the base is loyal at 68%. But we are inching towards things being dark and surreal for some time to come.

I dunno what happens next.

Impeachment State Of Play For Sept. 30th, 2019

Where’s the lie?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It’s extremely difficult to work on a novel when the country around you is burning to the ground. Anyway.

If I got any — any — engagement to the idea of starting an email list devoted to impeachment coverage I would do it in a heartbeat. But someone, somewhere would have to take the trouble to actually contact me via email. [migukin (at) gmail (dot) com]

While Moscow Mitch said he would, in fact, open a trial in the Senate against Trump should it get that far, he immediately suggested he would move to dismiss it as soon as possible. So, lulz?

Trump Bonkers Watch:
Trump is showing mental strain, but it’s still sufficiently within the spectrum of sanity that the AP is unwilling to even admit that he said some pretty provocative things on Twitter. I would suggest this is because Trump hasn’t literally told people to take up arms against the big meanies who are hurting his fee-fees. Should that change, then watch for the political ground to shift under us. Trump is no where near where he’s likely to end up. And Republicans aren’t going to do anything about it. In fact, the case could be made that Kris “I Hate Brown People” Kobach will be the new center of the Republican Party should there be a post-Trump era in the immediate future. Let that sink in.

Republicans continue to have no strategic messaging other than this:

In fact, things have gotten so bad that in a sense, Republicans are following Trump’s lead. He amps up the civil war / violence rhetoric and they run with it. Newt, specifically, is suggesting that impeachment is a “Constitutional coup”and as such not legitimate. This is, of course, setting the Republicans up for a pretty spectacular problem when bullets start flying and someone gets hurt — or worse. Americans are extremely difficult to rile up, but once you do manage to do so, watch out.

What’s even more troubling is the politically battle hasn’t even been joined yet. The two sides are in shock and are struggling to figure out what to do. When we begin to get a handle on things, that’s when the sparks actually begin to fly. Or, put another way, there’s a lot of slack in the rope right night. It’s beginning to unravel on its way to eventually getting taunt, but we still have a ways go to.

Even more disturbing is when Trump finally snaps, I honestly have no way to telling what the endgame is. It’s all up to the fates at that point.


(Radical Resistance) American Carnage: The Republican Party No Longer Believes In Liberal Democracy

Republicans go out for lunch.

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls


In the lead up to the 2016 election, I frequently said I’d rather have a Nixon-level crook (Hillary Clinton) president than an alien space hugger on fire with acid dropping off it (Donald Trump.) No one listened to me, probably because they took the metaphor to be too ridiculous to be taken seriously.

Flash forward three years and it turns out I was right. Trump through the Republican Party is an alien xenomorph incubating in our nation’s political abdomen. How else do you describe an organization that so values Trump over all other parts of our society, politics and culture that they would continue to support him even now. When he rants about “civil war” on Twitter, not only do they defend it, they embrace it — Newt is out there calling the current Democratic impeachment effort a “Constitutional coup.”

It’s growing apparent that two things are fusing into one — Trump’s criminal incompetence and is growing mental instability. Republicans are no longer moored to any form of political reality other than protecting Trump going forward. What’s growing more serious by the moment is things are growing darker by the moment because of Trump’s deranged tweets. But Republicans feel the MAGA base will punish them if they don’t support Trump, so they are willing to ride this pony to the bottom.

It all grows even more serious when you realize that even if we somehow miraculously end Trump’s deranged, tyrannical rule, the conditions that created him aren’t going anywhere. There are a half a dozen younger, more passionate Trump-like political figures chomping at the bit to finish the damage that Trump has begun. In a sense, American democracy may get a second chance for the sole reason that that Trump’s deranged and so incompetent that he is brought down not by any external force but by his own epic self-own.

It pains me to say this, but if we actually do want to honor the hundreds of thousands of people who have died to protect the Union and its Constitution, we will have to begin to look at the Republican Party as a fascist enterprise. We will have to do it collectively. We will have to en masse simply agree never to vote for another Republican candidate for the foreseeable future.

Republicans got their smash and grab plutocrat tax cut and they got their dozens of young hack judges on the Federal bench. Addressing those issues, given that Trump won his election under false pretenses is something to consider. But this “nuclear option” comes with a serious danger — about half the population actually agrees with MAGA.

If we want to keep the country together, we’re going to have to figure out a way to bridge the divide between those who believe in liberal democracy and those who don’t. I’m not smart enough to figure that one. Maybe Maggie Haberman can use her access journalism to save the day.

Lincoln’s Dream & Trump’s Nightmare

A more perfect Union.

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls


President Abraham Lincoln is a personal hero. The debate as to who is the greater president, he or Washington, is a conundrum I often think about. While Washington laid the nation’s original cornerstone, it was Lincoln would laid the foundation for a new, stronger house.

In a sense, the America we live in, the America we long for, the America that at our current erratic, lawless tyrant would have us believe he is making great “again” is Lincoln’s America. What made Lincoln such a powerful historical force is he lived in a time before the segmentation of society that we now live in.

We remember Lincoln as a statesman, but he was much more. If you plopped him in modern America, he could be a late night talk show host. Or maybe he might find fame on SNL. He could be a law professor. He was a gifted writer and storyteller. Given the opportunities of the modern world, he might simply be a screenwriter in Hollywood.

I only bring him up because you could, in a sense, call Trump something of a disruptor to Lincoln’s long-ago imagine of America. I would even suggest that Lincoln is modern America’s Harri Sheldon. Lincoln formulated a plan — uniting the Union under the rule of law and equality — and Trump is The Mule. The Mule, as you may know, is a character in The Foundation Saga who screws up The Sheldon Plan to create a Second Galactic Empire after 1,000 years, instead of 10,000.

We come to a moment of decision. One that I think Lincoln himself would be aghast at. There’s a reason why several notable historians say we’re now in a “cold civil war.” Some tectonic flaws in the House that Lincoln Built are beginning to grow critical. We no longer have shared values. Even universal truth — the thing that holds everything together — is beginning to be questioned.

The central problem is the Republican Party no longer the party of Lincoln. It no longer believes in the gift that Father Abraham gave us all — liberal democracy. As such, someone who is criminally incompetent such as Trump now is erratically at the wheel of the ship of state. Lincoln was our captain during the fateful journey of civil insurrection. Trump now wilfully not only raises the spectre of a war that would, again, pit brother against brother, he wants to make America a nation not of Lincoln’s dream, but of blood and soil.

Historians need a narrative. They need a way to assure us that the long arc of history does, in fact, bend towards justice. But that is misleading. America has been very lucky. Our birthright is a Constitutional system based on truth and the rule of law. Trump would have us believe that our tribunes, our truth tellers, the press, are the “enemy of the people.” He wants to bring darkness to the land. To end American exceptionalism. To make us a nation based on lies and the arbitrary administration of the law based on power.

I’d like to think that Lincoln, if he was alive today, would see Trump’s craven injustice. Whatever he was doing, be a screenwriter or late night TV show host, Lincoln would come to the forefront of this crisis. Like many people at the time of the Civil War, Lincoln was afforded an opportunity to prove himself in ways he ordinarily would not. U.S. Grant himself was nothing but a drunk for nearly a decade before Lincoln picked him to end the scourge of the Army of Northern Virginia.

The point of all of this is leadership comes with consequences. By definition, courage is seeing danger and rushing towards it, not away from it. We are now in a crisis that is only going to get worse as our American Caligula continues to be emboldened by the callow sycophancy of what was a great and grand old party.

We have a Union. It is up to ensure that we continue to make it more perfect and not succumb to the siren call of tyranny.