As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.
And, yet.
I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?
That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.
Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.
I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.
I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.
As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.
So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.
It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.
We’re doomed. We’re fucking doomed. The Republican Party is now a fascist one with one agenda and one agenda only — to establish the United States as an autocratic, MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate.
The key thing to remember is that we can only punt this particular problem down the road so much. Even if we “vote harder” and beat Trump at the polls, the Republican Party is so fascist and radicalized that it’s inevitable that the pressure to transform the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate will remain.
So, if it’s not 2025 that we turn into an Christian autocracy, it will be 2029.
As such, there is a part of me — not a very big part — that feels like throwing down the gauntlet NOW so at least if we are going to have a big political / military fight over the choice of autocracy or freedom at least ding-dong Trump will be in charge of the fucking fascists, not someone with any sense about them.
But I only think that when I get really fucking frustrated with the chipper do-gooders who think that if we only “vote harder” that that will fix everything. But it won’t. There’s a good chance that even if the “vote harder” strategy works that Trump will demand a National Divorce to avoid prison time.
Or, put another way — the issue is, that barring some sort of Black Swan event pretty soon, late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most dramatic events in American — if not human — history. I can’t predict the future. Who knows.
I’m tentatively willing to suggest that the Apple Vision Pro may be A Big Deal. If you fused XR technology with AI technology — that’s a big fucking deal. And, yet, I don’t know. The jury seems still out to how big a deal it will all be.
One thing we need to understand is the context of all of this going forward — late 2024, early 2025 definitely seems to be a Perfect Storm, a convergence of sorts of political and technological tipping points. It could be that we’re going to fate not just a Fourth Turning but a Petite Singularity around that time.
Or, put another way, things are moving really, really fast on a number of different fronts.
If we dive into a severe recession by late 2024, early 2025 because of a Petite Singularity just we’re facing the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. Oh boy. That would really suck.
And, yet, I’m always wrong, so, lulz.
It could be that I’m over thinking things. But I do think that the years 2025 – 2029 will be years of dramatic transition. If we’re lucky, we transition into some sort of autocratic techno-state. If we’re NOT lucky, then, well, lulz, we will have some sort of civil war / revolution during those years and we’ll spend the 2030s figuring out what the post-WW3 New World Order will be like.
Yikes.
But that’s just more of my “hysterical doom shit.”
I think we’ll probably just muddle through. We (almost) always do.
Just in the last few days, the MAGA chattering class on Twitter has decided to go all-in on fascism. They’re openly talking about the need for a Right wing dictator along the lines of Franco, of all people.
And, given that it definitely seems as though the United States is about to default for the first time ever, it seems as though the conditions for the US to transition into a fascist state are just about there. Trump will be get re-elected — even if he’s under indictment for violating the Espionage Act — he will demand MAGA Enabling Acts be stapled to the Constitution via a new Constitutional Convention and, there you go — The Fourth Reich.
All my hysterical doom shit — the shit that got me blocked by Twitter liberal darling Mueller, She Wrote — will come true. And we’ll be faced with the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution.
It definitely seems as though that’s our future. Or, put another way, the moment the US defaults for the first time, all bets are off. The French Empire defaulted in the years leading up to the French Revolution, so, lulz? Either we implode into a white Christian ethnostate or we explode into civil war / revolution.
If it happens, it’s probably going to be at some point in late 2024, early 2025.
Let me be clear — I think much like the late Roman Empire, America has given itself over to the macro forces of history. We’ve just given up and there just doesn’t seem to be any way to avoid our inevitable transition into an illiberal democracy.
In fact, between now and spring 2025, our choice will be rather stark — autocracy or civil war.
So, I don’t really give much credence to the idea that anything — ANYTHING — can stop Trump from being 2024 Republican nominee and probably the next POTUS. In short, we’re fucking doomed. And, yet, for some reason, 50 Senators have, according to CBS News, been given satellite phones because of the fear of “a disruptive event.”
Just like how the paranoid Right spent 30 years mulling what James Baker was going to say in the “New World Order” speech that he never gave, it’s possible that the same people are going to spend the next 20 years worried about a “disruptive event” that never comes.
But it does seem that Trump might — MIGHT — be on the cusp of being indicted for a number of Big Boy Crimes, amongst them being espionage. I just don’t see that as rising to the status of a “disruptive event,” however, because everything is so baked into the cake with Trump that even if he, I don’t know, ate someone live on TV, he would still be 60,000 voters in five swing states away from being president.
That’s how much America has collectively given the fuck up.
It definitely will be interesting to see Trump running for POTUS between now and Election Day 2024 having been indicted for espionage of all things. Jesus Christ.
Introduction Whenever someone tries to seriously discuss the concept of “being woke” one has to make it clear that it’s a concept largely defined by people who hate it. And, they themselves, really have no idea what it means. The definition of “woke” is, thus, one of just “vibes.”
In fact, the self-appointed definers of “woke” — mostly MAGA conservatives — want there to be no clear definition so everything and nothing can be “woke” as is necessary to “own” the libs. Much like how MAGA Republicans refuse to tell us when, in fact, America was “great,” so, too, do these self-same Republicans refuse to give us any clear definition of what “to be woke” is.
As such, we’re left rummaging through the often very dumb, very vacuous arguments made by MAGA Republicans when they want to juice the base to vote. So, with that in mind, let’s address the issue at had, “What is woke?”
Terror By Vibe It seems clear to me that the entire notion of “wokness” says more about MAGA Republican conservatives than it does the word itself. Much of the hysterical rhetoric about “wokeness” on the part of Republicans is a direct, kneejerk reaction to the combination of the browning of America and the growing economic power of women.
What’s more, if you scramble all of this in the blinder of the greater Fox News and conservative podcast echo chamber, you end up in a situation where people who should know better will tell you with a straight face that “libs” “love” abortions to the point that they’re practicing infanticide. In fact, in my discussion with my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — it definitely seems as though a lot of the outrage over “wokeness” is more anger over how modern society talks about in a very public manner things they feel should be kept private and secret.
So, these people who are so upset about abortion or the gay movement probably don’t mind that either one exists, but they ARE upset at what they perceive is the very public woke agenda on these topics. This is all an extension of how conservative Republicans want to establish an autocratic white Christian ethnostate — sometimes without even realizing that that is, in fact, what they want.
In short, they find the “woke” movement…annoying.
They just know, in general, they hate people who are “woke” — even though they really don’t know what “being woke” means. They just do a vibe check on the issues important to “woke” people and get upset that anyone would think such a thing.
In short, conservative (MAGA) Republicans find woke people really, really annoying for any number of reasons. They neither understand them nor, in some cases, even want to be in the same Union with them.
‘Go Woke, Go Broke’ One thing that any discussion of “being woke” has to mention is there is, in fact, a small but vocal portion of the liberal-progressive movement that has such a narrow minded, strict orthodox about certain issues that they drive traditional conservatives into the arms of fascists.
Take, for instance, the transgender movement.
There is a lot of talk about “protecting trans kids” within “woke” liberal-progressive circles which causes MAGA Republicans to, in turn, freak out at the idea that there are even “trans kids” to be “protected” in the first place. From what I can gather, the idea of “trans kids” is extremely muddled and misleading.
While, yes, growing number of children under 18 are identifying as “trans” the number of children actually transitioning is near zero, if not, in fact, zero. But because woke people run around screaming about how need to “protect trans kids,” MAGA bigots assume such “gender affirming care” must be happen all the time, when, in fact, it’s not.
But it suits the purposes of the all those MAGA conservative podcasts with time to fill and advertisements to sell, so they talk and talk and talk and talk about something that really doesn’t even exist — children under 18 medically changing their gender.
Those libs aren’t going to own themselves, you know.
There is a lot — A LOT — of pretty basic moralism involved in all of this, as well. It’s all vibes, in other words. As Blues grow more secular and brown, Reds grow more Christian and white (and old.) This is where the Gay Scare we’re currently experiencing is coming from. There are MAGA Republicans who feel, by definition being a member of the LGBQ+ community is a “sin” and, as such, the way a long of Gen Z seem to see being gay as aspirational fills them with horror. These MAGA Republicans just want people to be filled with the Holy Spirit and stop messing around with people of the same sex.
And, this is a very important element to all of this — the reason why Republicans hate democracy is they KNOW that they’re losing a demographic battle and, as such, they would rather turn America into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate than do some soul searching and change their policies so they can win elections fair and square.
This is a point too often missed by smug Twitter liberals who seem to feel just being a keyboard warrior online is somehow going to change anything.
There Is No Endgame I’m not going to give you an pat solutions to the battle over being “woke.” There are none. All I got is the whole battle over “being woke” is a luxury of living in a peaceful, wealthy liberal democracy. When that is no longer the case — when things grow more….existential…then, lulz, the last thing we’re going to have time or energy for is fighting over the proper use of someone’s “pronouns.”
I just don’t think people are really taking how bumpy the next 18 months could be seriously. It’s very possible that in quick succession, the US will default, Biden will be impeached for trying to solve the problem using the 14th Amendment AND Hollywood will burn to the ground after it grinds to a halt because three strikes that prompt the widespread use of AI.
And that doesn’t even begin to address the prospect of the so-called “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.
But, as I often say, I’m always, always wrong.
And, yet, I do think that the closer we get to late 2024, early 2025, the more “bumpy” things are going to become. The 2024 election cycle is shaping up to be a massive fucking clusterfuck. The only way we don’t either turn into an autocracy or have a revolution / civil war is if not only does A Democrat win the presidency, but Trump doesn’t do a Stop The Steal Redux.
In other words, the world’s first hyperpower is primed and ready to implode into chaos in such a spectacular manner that it will be said in the breath as the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution.
Man, do I wish I was joking or just spreading “hysterical doom shit.” But I’m not. I really think there is a greater-than-zero chance that the United States is going to have a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025. At this point, it’s just an issue of if it’s Reds (civil war) or Blues (revolution) who light the match.
But I do think in the near term that if Biden uses the 14th Amendment to end any sort of defaut that it will be why he’s impeached. It’s simple to understand for the base and it will probably zoom through Congress, only to be stopped cold in its tracks in the Senate.
I’m always wrong, but here are some general ideas about what Trump’s second term might look like. The key issue for me is — how close do we come to a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 after Trump wins the 2024 election? If it becomes clear that his incoming agenda is EXTREMELY RADICAL, then there is a greater-than-zero-sum chance that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
It would all happen very, very quickly. So fast that a lot of people would get caught up in the moment and wouldn’t even realize what was going on until the Second American Civil War was actually on-going.
But I just don’t think that’s going to happen. While I do think that the chance of a 2ACW is far greater if Trump becomes POTUS, in the end, I just don’t think that Blues have it in them. Too many of the people who would actually incite a National Divorce — namely, Twitter liberals — have the means, motive and opportunity to use their newly obtained second passports to flee the country and setup shop in the south of France.
So, what would a Second Trump Administration actually look like? It would be based on revenge and the final battle between MAGA and the “deep state.” But I think the real issue, the thing will transform America into a white Christian ethnostate will be a Constitutional Convention.
Within months — days? — of Trump being sworn in, he’s going to start ranting about how he is going to run again, even though the Constitutional prohibits it. At some point, he’s going to realize he can get his MAGA Enabling Acts by calling a Constitutional Convention. It goes rouge because it’s make up of people selected by state legislatures –which are majority MAGA — and away we go.
As all of this happening, a huge pipeline of wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flow out of the country until, of course, Trump — or whomever succeeds him — freaks out and makes it illegal to leave the country.
So, there you go.
Barring something I can’t predict — that’s America’s future.
The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.
The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.
Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.
But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?
It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.
The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.
Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.
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