Tag: The Red King

2025: Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.

So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.

Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.

What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.

And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”

No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.

Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.

Good times!

I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.

Death By Vibes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.

It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.

They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.

MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.

Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”

Oh boy.

All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.

So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.

On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.

MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.

But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.

So…lulz?

What Will Indicate We’re Fucked Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.

Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media
One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City.

Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump
If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do.

Mass Migration
As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag.

Secessionist Conventions
If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?

World War Three
If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.

I’m Growing Uneasy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a survivor. So as we careen towards the 2024 presidential silly season with the greater-than-zero chance that all hell will beak loose because of it, I find myself dwelling on what I will do if my worse fears come true.

I’ve written about this before, but my concerns continue to linger. I’m kind of a Blue spot in a sea of Red where I live and if the country collapses into stark worlds of Red and Blue — something’s gotta give. I just won’t be able to live in where I live anymore because my politics will inevitably be figured out and, besides, I would prefer not to live in Trumplandia, anyway.

I suppose if things got really bad, I could make a trek to Richmond where I have some relatives — but that would only be a stopgap measure because if things have gotten so bad that I have to flea my home, Virginia will be in chaos. In chaos to the point that I — and many others — will be fleeing the state for more stable states.

Virginia is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of revolution or civil war, Virginia will be one of the first states to collapse into political bloodshed. I suppose the longer-term solution to my problems in the event of a civil war / revolution would be to head farther north to something north of the Mason – Dixon line.

I suppose it’s possible I’ll endup in a big refugee camp in somewhere like Pennsylvania, update New York or Maine. The dream, of course, would be to get to enjoy some fun new life in New York City. But, alas, the more I think about it, the more I probably will be stuck in a refugee camp.

Anyway, all of that is “hysterical doom shit.” And very, very speculative. It’s at least possible that somehow, magically, we’ll be saved by some sort of Black Swan event or Biden will win, Trump will fail to cause a National Divorce and I can keep trying to sell my first novel.

Worse Case Scenario: Trump’s Second Term

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When thinking about what might happen in Trump’s second term, there is a key thing to contemplate: is Trump too dumb and lazy to go full tyrant while still pretending to care about the rule of law?

Is it possible that his political and historic purpose is simply to destroy the United States by totally and completely making the unpreceded move of going full tyrant without giving a shit about anything but staying in power? I only broach this because he repeatedly during his first term seemed to indicate that he was prepared to just extend his time in office without an election because he “deserved it.”

If he did such a thing during his second term, then that would probably be the set up for a revolution / civil type situation that would destroy not only the United States in the near term, but the entire post WW2 liberal order. WW3 would probably happen and billions of people might die specifically because of the actions of one Donald J. Trump.

There is a chance, of course, that somehow, someway, Trump is convinced to press for a Constitutional Convention that would put MAGA Enabling Acts into the document. Doing such a thing would at least keep Trump within the boundaries of the law — even if the law was now extremely fascist.

So, that’s kind of the spectrum we face in a second Trump Administration. On one end, the country collapses into revolution / civil war and chaos and on the other, we become something more like Putin’s Russia. I’m aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment, but all signs are pointing towards something along those lines being our choice.

The Radicalization of Traditionalists Is Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the 2024 election will be decided because of macro political, historical and demographic trends, barring some black swan event that I can’t predict. As such, I’m inclined to believe Trump is going to win simply because of bad vibes, if nothing else.

Traditionalists are so upset over the browning of America, the “gay agenda” and the secularization of the country that they feel as though they have no choice but to support a fucking tyrant like Trump. They rationalize the dangers of giving Trump a second term by saying, lulz, he was all talk the first time, of course he’ll be all talk the second time.

Yikes.

From personal experience, it definitely seems as though Traditionalists — who are the bedrock of any stable democracy — are so weirded out by the extremes of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright. As such, we’re pretty much fucked.

Having said all that, we also have to admit to ourselves that if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025, that there is a real chance that some pretty unprecedented things might happen — up to and including Trump being deposed in some way. That, in turn would cause a civil war to happen.

Or not. I can’t predict the future.

But the fact remains — late 2024, early 2025 could be up there with the Russian Revolution in terms of jaw dropping, history making events. The key thing is Trump is telegraphing what he wants to do in a second term. As such, I just can’t believe that Trump could go full tyrant without there being some severe consequences.

The United States is just too big, too diverse and has too strong a tradition of democracy for us to just shrug and accept Trump being a tyrant overnight. If he does a “shock and awe” attack on the institutions of the United States there will be consequences for everyone involved.

And, yet, it hasn’t happened yet. There remains a chance that somehow, someway, we’ll muddle through things like we have done so many times in the past.

But I am worried this time could be different, very worried. And the key thing to look for is how Traditionalists respond when Trump begins to snatch people off the street. Things would have to get REALLY BAD for Traditionalists to sit up and take notice.

If Trump starts to arrest people he doesn’t like, the first thing radicalized Traditionalists will say is Trump is just using “lawfare” against people he doesn’t like, just like Biden supposably did (in their view.) As such, it will be interesting to see how fucking bad things will have to get before Traditionalists begin to question their decision to go all-in on Trump.

I suspect only if it gets personal will they care. They will be Good Germans until they, personally, have to deal with some tyrannical thing Trump has done. THEN they might begin to second guess their decision to support MAGA fascism.

But only then.

The Fate Of The United States May Rest With State Republican Parties

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On the surface, it seems as though Trump’s support is not nearly as passionate as it once was. While there continues to be a lot of sound and fury surrounding Trump, lately, that noise seems to signify nothing. It could be that many of the people who could otherwise cause trouble in the real world for Trump are in prison because of their involvement in the January 6th Insurrection.

Having said that, I continue to worry on a structural basis about the radicalization of state Republican Parties. It will be the extent of that radicalization that will determines what happens in late 2024, early 2025, regardless of the outcome of the election.

If Trump loses, he could very well flip the fuck out and start to demand a National Divorce on the self-serving grounds that he doesn’t want to go prison. If that happens, then we all have to wait and see if states like Texas begin the process of leaving the Union.

Meanwhile, the core of Trump’s support should he win will come from the radicalized infrastructure of the Republican Party. Trump will rule the country as a tyrannical Red King and he will probably leverage the institutional support of the Republican Party to consolidate power. And if Trump is somehow magically deposed because he does go full tyrant on us, it will be Republican state parties who will cause the civil war…when they leave the Union in a huff.

At the moment, I just don’t know what is going to happen. It really could go either way. There is a chance that should Trump lose that I’m really overthinking things and Trump will just rant a lot and then drift away…until he comes roaring back and tries to run again in 2028.

‘Lawfare’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a number of instances that have occurred during The Age Of Trump that makes one think about the dynamic between Trump the Man and Trump the Idea. It really makes one wonder about the rise of Trump and what that rise means in the context of American political history.

Take, for instance, what happened with Bob Mueller’s investigation. The case could be made that a lot of the pressure to hold Trump accountable was dissipated because all of our hopes and dreams about getting rid of Trump were wrapped up in the idea that Mueller would somehow produce a report that would force Trump out of office.

It’s possible that had Trump not produced the conditions that caused Mueller to be the Special Counsel that his first few years would have been a lot more turbulent. And, what’s more, I think all of us were very oblivious to how potent Trump the Idea was to millions of white Christians who felt disenfranchised for various reasons.

Now Trump is the subject of four different criminal cases. I have a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — who has gone totally MAGA now that their choice of Ron DeSantis is no longer a option. Talking to this relative gives me a general sense of what’s bouncing around the far Right podcast echo chamber and it’s clear that the idea that the evil (yet also incompetent?) Biden Administration is using “lawfare” against Trump.

When pressed, my relative says that there is only one case that they think Trump may be guilty off — the secret documents case — and yet because of the extensive permission structure provided them by all those MAGA podcasts they listen to, even that one they think is “lawfare.”

When asked if Trump murdering someone might be enough to dislodge their support for him, I did not get a definitive yes – or -no answer. Yikes!

There are two major take aways from this situation.

One, white Christian (men) are enraged by the “bad vibes” they feel in the United States at the moment. They don’t really know what is making them so upset, but they know there is absolutely nothing that would cause them to put aside their rage at the center-Left to the point that they might believe that saving American democracy is more important that crushing the “woke cancel culture mob.”

And, what’s more, my conservative relative completely dismisses the idea that Trump might go full tyrant if he’s given a second term in office. They point to how Trump was “all talk” during his first administration and believe the same will be the case in a second term.

Oh boy.

All signs point to that NOT being the case. Which makes me wonder what my conservative relative’s reaction will be when Trump gets into office and starts to do all the tyrannical things he clearly wants to do. Given that I could very well find myself in a Trump-branded concentration camp because I refuse to shut up about Trump being a fucking cocksucker, well, lulz.

The other thing to note is all of this bitching and moaning about “lawfare” will be a precursor to Trump going after anyone who opposes him with the Justice Department once he is in power again. And, really, the only reason why I think Trump might not be successful in this consolidation of power is, well, Trump. He is such a ding-dong — and a lazy one at that — that he could very well go full tyrant in such a way that principled Traditionalists — such as my relative — may sit up and take notice.

I continue to believe we are careening towards a very dark and turbulent future staring in late 2024, early 2025.

America May Just Give Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fact that a malignant ding-dong like Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS is a pretty good sign that on a macro basis, the United States may have just turned into a shrug emoji. The average person simply can not, will not process the idea that the abstract of 250 years of democracy is more important than the cost of eggs.

And, but for one thing, I would believe the US is on the cusp of slouching towards autocracy and the transition into a “managed democracy” like that found in Russia will be swift and done without violence. And that one thing is ding-dong Trump.

Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that he could very well single-handedly cause the United States to descend into situation where some pretty surreal events happen. Now, obviously, there is a chance that general placid nature of Americans will cause Trump to get away with going full tyrant without incident.

But there is also a chance that he will be so fucking conspicuous in his tyranny should he become POTUS again that Traditionalists — who would otherwise be the core of his support going forward — will blanch. I don’t expect them to actively agitate for Trump to be deposed, but I do think that if something like a Blue General Strike happened that they might sit on their hands and let events unfold.

Though, of course, if Trump was somehow magically deposed — either through successful impeachment in the Senate or the U.S. Military stepping in — there probably would be a Civil War because Red States would be enraged.

All this goes back to the key issue — late 2024, early 2025 could see the United States be the most politically unstable since the end of the Civil War. Win or lose, Trump could cause the earth to stand still. If he loses, he could rant about the need for a National Divorce, which would cause a civil war. Win, and he could be so bad at being a tyrant that he’s deposed…which causes a civil war.

As I’ve written before, the only way we get out of the 2024 election in one peace is if Trump loses and he just drift peacefully off the national stage until he tries to be president again in 2028.

That’s it. That’s all I got. Otherwise, we’re fucked.

There’s A 50 / 50 Chance Trump Will Be Deposed If He Wins

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that all the fucking smug Twitter liberals dance around whenever they hysterically talk about what a second Trump term would be like is the practical implications of what happens if Trump goes “full tyrant” starting in 2025.

Now, I have to point out that the general macro political trend in the United States is towards autocracy. In fact, at the moment, the United States is an autocracy with an autocrat. In other words, but for the fact that MAGA isn’t in power, we would be an autocracy NOW.

What’s more, if history had picked ANY ONE ELSE but Trump to guide America into autocracy, it would be done peacefully, gradually and without much fuss. But Trump is SO FUCKING LAZY AND STUPID that there is a really good chance that the moment he’s in power again, he’ll thrash around in a very tyrannical manner.

The key group of people when talking about any possible “overthrow” of Trump would be the people who would otherwise in any transition to autocracy be quite content — Traditionalists. If Trump wasn’t such a fucking moron, he would gradually move the Overton Window of tyranny and by 2028, we would just shrug when magically he was able to run for a third term.

But this is Trump we’re talking about, so there’s a decent chance that Trump will be so dumb and lazy in his move to transition us into autocracy that Traditionalists might actually sit up and take notice. If Trump’s tyranny is as chaotic and egregious as it seems clear it will be, then even Traditionalists might become aghast.

Of course, I have to qualify all of this by saying it’s not like Traditionalists would join in, say, a General Strike. But they might just stand down when it became clear that Trump’s political days were numbered.

There are two ways I could see Trump being deposed.

One is political — his abuse of power is so astonishing that he gets impeached and, because of a successful General Strike, he is somehow, magically successfully impeached in the Senate.

The other, darker possibility is the wheels totally fly off our political system and not even a General Strike is enough to get rid of Trump and when the American economy craters because of the strike, the U.S. Military feels compelled to step in. I suppose they could force SCOTUS to “review” their existing decision on the 14th Amendment insurrection clause and that would be the legal cover they would need to forcibly remove Trump.

But it would not be rainbows an unicorns if we deposed Trump. The moment Trump was removed from office — one way or another — any number of Red States would head for the doors and civil war would start.

So….lulz?