With the news that the U.S. economy is doing exceptionally well, despite the “vibes” telling us everything sucks, I’m reminded by how people on the Right have complained that Biden has been to partisan.
People who talk like this obviously pretty much just want Biden to be something he’s not — “statesman” is code for “Joe Manchin.” Given how divided the country is, and how 38% of the Republican electorate is all-in on the idea of fascism…I just don’t see how Biden becoming some darling of the non-existent Center would have worked.
Yes, he could have said he wasn’t going to run again. And, yes, he could have muted some of his more center-Left policy movies…but who would have that placated? You have an entire MAGA bullshit echochamber designed specifically to juice the MAGA base at any perceived “woke” slight.
As such, Biden would be pretty much only making the Green Room at Face The Nation happy if he tried to “statesman” route. The country is tearing itself apart and we’re either going to become a MAGA-themed autocracy or we’re going to start blowing shit up.
I think and hope we just become an MAGA autocracy. I hate violence too much to think otherwise. But there is a real risk that the most powerful nation in the world is going to destroy itself over “vibes.”
I’m always wrong. Always. And, what’s more, I can’t predict the future. No one can. However, America definitely has a modern antebellum vibe to it at the moment. The country is tearing itself apart as the Red and the Blue continue to recede from each other at an alarming rate.
And, yet, to date, there really hasn’t been the type of political violence one might expect if we were going to have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues) starting in late 2024, early 2025. As such, it definitely seems as though when the time comes, we’re going to just slip peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy.
Something pretty extraordinary would have to happen for the one scenario that we would need to happen to punt our problems down the road again another for years to happen — that both Trump would lose and he wouldn’t try to start a civil war to save his own hide.
The country is careening towards some sort of Fourth Turning at such an alarming rate that I just can’t see Trump’s demands to start a civil war should he lose the 2024 election going unheeded. The most logical outcome is he wins and either we turn into a full-fledged Russia-style autocracy or there’s some sort of Blue “Revolution” bent on toppling the “Magadonia” regime.
It’s all very fucked up. I’ve been saying for years now that we face an existential choice in 2024 – 2025 of autocracy or civil war / revolution. The rhetoric is just too frothy and the momentum is too strong. Either we just give up and turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we bomb ourselves into oblivion.
The more I look at Twitter as we experience something akin to a mini-Singularity associated with OpenAI ChatGPT, the more alarmed I find myself becoming. Not with the idea that there might be some sort of Terminator-like “Judgement Day,” but, rather the exact opposite.
There will be no need for our AGI overlord to blow the world up — humans will be so busy giving up any agency they might have to the decision making ability of an AGI. Given with the faux-AGI of a really smart chatbot, I see people pretty much just turning everything over to it.
Students no longer want to study. Adults think they can just have the chatbot do their work while they stroke one out to porn. Meanwhile, worst of all, all the same partisan bullshit we’ve seen with every other element society is now corrupting the chatbot revolution.
As such, THE political and societal issue of 2023 and beyond could very well be who gets to regulate the “bias” of chatbots (and, later AI.) When everything hinges on the “objective truth” of a chatbot because people are fucking lazy and refuse to talk to each other because of politics, then the whole woke vs. unwoke debate becomes white hot.
In the Second Trump Administration, I could see there being some sort of FCC-like agency design specifically to “purge” AI of any “woke” bias because children no longer learn anything but, instead, are trained on how to ask better questions of chatbots.
MAGA Nazis will scream bloody murder if a chatbot doesn’t give them the answer to “what is a woman” that they expect. They will say that chatbots are nothing more than CRT shills infected with the “mind virus” of the “woke cancel culture mob.”
I’m not exaggerating. That’s exactly what is going to happen — you see it already on Twitter with the usual fuckwit MAGA Nazi “thought leaders” whining that they can’t get their hate validated by a chatbot.
Of course, there is the even more darker scenario where the United States splits into to nations, one Red, one Blue and while Blue America is enjoying the fruits of an unfettered Singularity, Trumplandia will use chatbots to atomize Red States into a techno-autocratic state. Good times!
I think some of all of this comes from how the human mind is hard wired to believe in a god. So, people, presented with something like a chatbot, fall into the trap of thinking they can “pray” objective questions to the chatbot and get some sort of “objective revealed truth” that they can spread to the world. All you need is a burning bush and some stone tablets and it’s a story as old as history.
In short — we’re fucked. Humans are just too lazy to put up much of a fight with chatbots or AGI. It will be interesting to how all of this ultimately shakes out.
I do not believe that the American press has done a very good job of preparing the public for how dark things may get if Republicans control the House and or the Senate. Republicans are now so radical that they’re fascist and autocratic. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy unless you win the election.
And, really, the curious thing is what doesn’t seem to be on the cusp of happening — Speaker Trump.
Trump being Speaker of the House is something that would be a basic autocratic play for any other person in Trump’s position. But Trump is such a lazy idiot and has such poor abstract thought abilities that he just can’t process in his mind how politically advantageous it would be for him to be Speaker.
But the key issue we have to remember is the only way we end the MAGA Republican threat is probably a civil war. That’s it. I say this because MAGA is now American Nazism and, in the end, the only way to end MAGA is how we ended Nazism — in the field of battle.
Let me be clear, however — I hate violence. I don’t want any form of violence, so what I just wrote is just an abstract, back of the envelope statement. So, we have to accept that we’re probably going to turn into a political clone of Nazi Germany at some point after Republicans steal / win the 2024 election. Then everyone who can will flee the country, just like people did when the Nazis took over Germany.
The point is — if Republicans take the House and or Senate, they are going to do everything in their power to destroy what’s left of American democracy so they can prime conditions for the final coup de grace. Or, put another way, the years 2023 – 2024 will be extremely dark and turbulent if Republicans have any sort of meaningful power.
I don’t know what to tell you. Get a passport. Game out where you might be able to flee to when the final darkness of autocratic MAGA fascism drapes across the country.
Sometimes when I talk to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m aghast at how different they perceive the world relative to me. At the very forefront of their mind is the idea that the “woke cancel culture mob” is not only “grooming” children, but they will “cancel” anyone who is conservative enough to question their aggressive “gay agenda.”
Not canceled.
Ugh.
A prime of example of this bizarre world view is Dave Chappelle. My Traditionalist relatives believe that because of his aggressive anti-trans stance, that Chappelle’s career is dead and he now lives under an assumed name along with all the other “canceled” conservatives of Hollywood.
Of course, this is complete bullshit.
Chappelle is doing fine. He’s very popular and continues to have a robust career. But the expression my Traditionalist conservatives give me when I point this out is complete disbelief. They really believe that the “woke cancel culture mob” is so absolutely powerful that by definition if you have the temerity to cross them that you burst into flames and descend into some sort of “canceled” hell to be with a groomer Satan or some such.
This is why I just don’t believe there is any hope for America anymore. The idea that the people who otherwise would be the bedrock of our democracy now apparently, in the abstract, live in abject fear of having their lives ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” just for being conservative is extremely alarming. They are primed and ready to, when the time comes, support America’s transition into autocracy.
Then, of course, the only question we face is do we endup around Hungary and Turkey politically or do we careen towards something closer to Russia or Nazi Germany. At the moment, I honestly can’t game things out that far.
And, yet, it definitely seems that this is it. Call it the Fourth Turning, or the “Great Reset,” or whatever the fuck you want, but the United States is far less stable than you might otherwise think. And, really, the issue is — when MAGA demands Blues bend a knee to autocratic fascism, do they do it or do they serve papers on a National Divorce?
At the moment, I think Blues are going to be so sucker punched by how rapidly the transition to fascism happens in the United States that they’ll just shrug and let it happen. After a brief moment of panic in late 2024, early 2025, we’ll just slip into autocracy, probably through a process that will ultimately end in a Constitutional Convention.
There is a small chance of a military junta, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re going to flee once the American Nazis known as MAGA finally consolidate power.
American politics at the moment is a shit show and has been for some time. It’s completely fucking bonkers. And, what’s worse, it’s all happening in broad daylight. We see the lights of an oncoming train, we’re on the tracks and we’re just standing there, waiting to get hit.
I keep saying we’re beyond the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war or military junta and every day I’m reminded of how right I am. MAGA Republicans now openly embrace some pretty basic elements of fascism and they’re screaming at the top of their lungs that they only believe in democracy if they win.
The idea that if Trump is indicted then he becomes a martyr for the cause, forcing Republicans to cling to him even tighter is seriously fucked up. I suppose we can at least be thankful that Trump is such a lazy idiot that there’s every reason to believe his innate laziness and incompetence may at least delay our final decent into fascism.
But there is the counter argument that Trump, unto himself, could force the United States into civil war. It could be that his historical purpose is not to be a transitional figure on our march to fascist autocracy, but the person who just by being a malignant digus causes the country to collapse.
As I keep saying, I just don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. The reason why the country seems to have civil war on the brain is the far fucking Right is made up of a bunch of fucking crybabies who take any perceived slight as the some sort of tyrannical oppression of what they hold dear.
Tectonic forces are at work here, things that are just difficult for one person to process. We’re all living through a massive historical event and as it’s happening to us, it has no value or narrative on a personal basis. As such, it won’t be until it’s all over with and we look back at what just happened that we’ll be able to understand how the fuck it all ended up happening.
Let me again stress — I do not pretend to be able to predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. I’m always wrong. Always. But I’m growing more and more alarmed that Something Bad is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, spring 2025.
The country is tearing itself apart in a pretty conspicuous manner there are two main issues that I just can’t game out at the moment. One is, like I mentioned, is it possible that Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war? And the other is, am I right to have such a low opinion of Blues ability to serve National Divorce papers on Reds if Trump — or whomever — demands Blues bend a knee to MAGA fascism?
I think that we’ll be a lot closer to knowing what is going to happen next after the midterms. That is when we’re going to lurch towards our fate one way or another, depending on the outcome of the vote. If Republicans win Congress, then things are going to get lit pretty quick. Meanwhile, of Blues somehow managed to keep Congress, then, well, the possibility of MAGA political violence will increase significantly.
All of this is part of how fucking bonkers America is right now. Something Big is on the horizon, but the question is: what?
I’m reading a political biography about the rise of Hitler — as one does — and the key takeaway so far is: it can happen here. We like to make ourselves feel better by believing that the rise of the Nazis was something unique to the German psyche after The Great War.
But the more I read about Hitler’s ascent, the more I realize that it Can Happen Here. Though, of course, Trump could not be more different than Hitler. I’m just at the book where Hitler’s personal characteristics are described and Trump is no Hitler.
The way Hitler is described really lays bare how Trump is just an empty suit who happened to at the right place at the right time to be a vessel, an avatar for white Christian rage over the browning of America and the rise of economically liberated women. (All the bitching and moaning about “wokeness” and homophobia is just something that happens on the Right because it’s politically expedient.)
Anyway, all signs point to A Very American Autocracy. And there is one specific problem which could very well cause Nazi-like genocide in the United States: race.
Once the United States is no longer a democracy, the more vile elements of the American experience could grow dangerously amplified to the point that there are Killing Fields in upstate New York and in various places around the South. The United States could implode into a situation where the only way we get rid of our American Nazi overlords is they grow so extreme that there is some sort of mass revolt.
Or, I don’t know, NATO, Japanese and Korean forces swoop in and topple the MAGA fascists who are murdering millions at an alarming clip by that point.
The point is — be very alarmed. Everything from Election Night 2022 to January 2025 (and beyond) could be historic and flabbergasting. Something’s gotta give. Call it the Fourth Turning or the Great Reset — America is in for a very, very bumpy ride.
I have often joked that if The End came, I would either be the first person to die as darkness fell or I would survive and be the guy who brought civilization back. And I still think that as it definitely seems the possibility of an epic collapse is now greater than zero.
But what would the collapse look like?
It seems to me that there are a number of different ways I might find myself being a lonely figure walking down the middle of an abandoned highway, looking for sustenance. At the moment, we have nuclear war, civil war and maybe another pandemic as possible reasons while modern human civilization might collapse in a rather abrupt manner.
With all the talk of a “dirty bomb” being used as a false flag by the Russians against the Ukrainians, that particular apocalyptic scenario writes itself. Things go boom, things escalate and the next thing you know I’m grateful that I live in a rural area. A nuclear war of some sort is probably the nastiest of how the world might end because it would take a lot longer for humanity to bounce back if you take into account Nuclear Winter.
Meanwhile, there is the possibility of a Second American Civil War. This is by far, the most likely of the scenarios I can think of. If I had the means, I would already be living as an expat somewhere, never to return to America. But I’m a Poor, so I’m stuck here while we careen towards the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Given that if the United States implodes that WW3 is probably going to happen along with it, things are probably going to get pretty messy globally in late 2024 – early 2025 if the United States has some sort of secession crisis when Blues attempt to leave the Union.
The last way I can think of that I might find myself fending for my life in a post-apocalyptic America would be another pandemic, but this time one that was far, far worse. The Big One, if you will. If I managed to survive, then I would have to search for food and shelter while I looked for others like me. This is the most speculative of the three possible scenarios.
Regardless, I definitely find myself thinking about shit like this these days. I would prefer not to have to go through any of it. I have six novels I’d like to write and get published.
Antisemitism has always been a part of America’s modern fascist movement, it’s just been lurking in the shadows in the guise of “Qanon.” But lately, especially with the tweets of Ye….the sentiment has grown more conspicuous. Now, let me be clear – I’m not Jewish and I’m just pointing out the obvious: if your country has a fascism problem, you’ve got an antisemitism problem just around the corner.
Now, in an ideal world, the rise of such antisemitic hate would cause a lot of prominent MAGA people to wash their hands of MAGA and that would be that. I mean, fucking Stephen Miller is MAGA ‘s Joseph Goebbels and you’d think being Jewish he might pause to reflect on the rise of antisemitism within MAGA ranks.
But, no, he’s a vile, nasty bigot who won’t stop being a true believer until it’s too late for him — and everyone else for that matter.
The thing I would suggest you keep an eye on Qanon as well as MAGA’s interpretation of Jared and Ivanka’s Jewishness. If Qanon completely consumed MAGA — as it’s on track to do at the moment, then it’s obvious antisemitism basis may grow more and more a feature and not a bug. I still am very concerned that should we become a MAGA-themed autocracy that it will be because of Qanon that we zoom past being a political clone of Hungary and end up circling the drain somewhere around being a Nazi clone. (Of course, America’s Fourth Reich won’t be expansition in nature, but more like something Pol Pot might think up.)
Also, if Jared and Ivanka’s position in MAGA grows untenable then…yeah, something really bad is about to happen for American Jews. Something we were all told Never Again and Never Forget.
I wish American Jews — even conservative American Jews — would be more at the forefront of the anti-MAGA movement. But I suppose — hopefully — that time will come.
We’ve reached the point in our immutable march towards MAGA autocracy, civil war or military junta at some point between now and spring 2025 that we need to start trying to make concrete our abstract fears.
So, let’s take a Second American Civil War. What are some practical elements to such an event happening that may — or may not — cause it to happen in the first place.
The first thing we need to contemplate is what would cause a 2AMC in the first place. There has been a lot — A LOT — of talk by Very Important Experts about how if there is a 2ACW that it will be rolling political violence on the part of Reds who feel stymied in their efforts to establish a white Christian ethnostate. The thinking goes that at some point in the immediate future all the good old boys who drink Miller Lite at the cabin shooting off their AR-15s will finally get so fed up with the “woke cancel culture mob” that they will spontaneously begin to shoot at liberals.
Or something. Something like that.
I’m just a drunk crank in the middle of nowhere, but I call bullshit on this prediction because Reds are politically ascendant and, as such, have no reason to do such a thing. They’re putting all the pieces in place for them to be able to steal the 2024 election in a pretty brazen manner. Starting with local election boards refusing to certify any Democrat win, the fix will be in.
Rather than having a Western democracy in the guise of our constitutional republic, it will become accepted that the administration of elections is now so corrupt that it is effectively impossible for a Democrat to win high office peacefully in the United States. Twitter liberals will flee the country en mass and that, sadly, will be that.
That’s what I believe is going to happen, by the way.
But. There is a greater than zero sum chance that instead of us slipping peacefully into MAGA fascist autocracy that it will be Blues who refuse to bend a knee and begin the process of not blowing shit up randomly, but actually having states leave the Union on a political basis.
Now, this is where things remain murky and very, very speculative. At the moment, there is no reason to believe Blues would take the step of calling Secessionist Conventions so they could start a Blue America Union. So, if it did happen, it would be one of the biggest and most unexpected political developments in the United States since, well, the first time it was attempted in 1860 – 1861.
I love a good scenario, so if you want my hot take on how the Secessionist Crisis of 2024 – 2025 would go down, it would be something like this. The first indication that things were going to be different would be that local MAGA controlled election boards in swing states would simply not do their job. They would balk at certifying the election of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
The reason why this is so important to what happens next is would introduce a level of uncertainty into the process that could easily be exploited by because so much of the Federal bench is now made up of young MAGA hacks who will do the bidding of MAGA when the time comes. I’m well aware that this did NOT happen in 2020….but we were very lucky. It’s very possible that the process of the corruption of the administration of elections will be much farther along by 2024 and, I don’t know, the election might be closer.
Each election has a personality of its own, if you will.
Once MAGA controlled election boards simply refuse to do their jobs because they don’t like the result, then one of the great ironies of the modern age will happen — suddenly, it will be Blues who will be screaming at the top of their lungs about “Stop The Steal.”
Let me pause here to note that America is tearing itself apart in ways big and small to the point that I just don’t see us making through the passions of another presidential cycle without Something Bad happening. That Somethng Bad could be, as I mentioned, autocracy, civil war or military junta.
But back to the scenario.
Once election boards in swing states balk at doing their jobs, the clock will begin to tick as to what the fuck is going to happen. And if SCOTUS validates the “independent legislature” concept this would be the point where everything would go off the rails. MAGA controlled legislatures in swing states could simply take control of the administration of elections that that point and pretty much just do whatever the fuck they wanted.
This is the point when we would reach a crisis. Just a few days after Election Day 2024, there would begin to be talk amongst a lot of Twitter liberals about either simply voting with their feet and leaving the country for good or even giving up on trying to “Stop The Steal” and having states call up Secessionist Conventions to give at least a thin cover of legality to trying to leave the Union.
Now, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of an old as hell POTUS who could very well just drop dead in the middle of this crisis, making an already very bad situation even worse.
The key element as to any Secessionist Crisis would be, of course, California and maybe New York City. If there was such popular outrage in Blue states that the 2024 election was going to be stolen in broad daylight that election officials in the deep blue states simply could not ignore the demand to leave the Union, then well, we’re going to show.
Meanwhile, NYC would be important because that’s where Trump Tower, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post are physically located. If hordes of enraged New Yorkers sacked those places in the middle of any Certification Crisis, then, well, that would be very bad as to the continued unity of the country.
If we turned on CNN in late 2024 and saw Trump Tower in New York City in flames, then, well, that would probably prompt retaliation on the part of Reds across the country. Which would would cause a cascading series of events that would definitely turn a Certification Crisis in to a Secessionist Crisis.
And all of this would be happening in the context of Trump freaking the fuck out and demanding blood. He might go so totally nuts that he, unto himself, could push the country into not just “chaos” but an actual civil war with two governments fighting it out.
There is just so much about this scenario that I can’t game out. I’m not an expert and I can’t predict the future. So, take that into consideration.
At this point, all eyes would be on California. Either they maybe call up a Secessionist Convention just to placate enraged liberals in the state or they maybe call some sort of emergency summit of Blue governors to discuss what happens next.
Then we bump up against two crucial questions. What about “purple” states and what happens with the U.S Military?
There are a number of states, like Virginia, which are purple. Virginia, specifically, is actually two states who fucking hate each other fused together because of history and geography. So this is when something that would make a lot of people sit up and take notice would happen — not only would there potentially be coups and counter coups in state houses across the country, many, many Reds would leave Blue states and Blues would leave Red states.
All this happening virtually overnight would put ever-more pressure on the Federal government. It would begin to dawn on people that the United States, the richest most stable country in the world was about to collapse into not just “rolling political violence” like The Troubles in Northern Ireland but an honest to God civil war like the one that happened in 1861 – 1865.
This brings us to the other issue — what the fuck would the U.S. Military do?
Well, I simply can’t game this out. There is a spectrum of things the U.S. Military might end up doing. Everything from simply collapsing as the Red enlisted go one way while the Blue officer corp goes another way to some sort of martial law / military junta happening. (If you really wanted to be paranoid, the fact that bonkers Gen. Mike Flynn’s brother is in control of the U.S. Pacific Command might suddenly become VERY IMPORTANT at this point.)
I really can’t game out what happens now. Either Blue States leave the Union en mass, establish their own Federal government and military or the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while until passions die down.
Or Blue States could choke and we slide into autocracy, with millions of wealth Blues leaving the country for good.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
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