The Gray Plague – Page 2 – The Trumplandia Report

#COVID Gray Plague ‘Cognitive Dissidence’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. I come up with these scenarios — usually the worst case — and I’m wrong. This happens all the time. But when it comes to my rather dire warnings about The Gray Plague striking the nation’s 1.4 million seniors in the 15,600 rest homes across the country, I struggle understand what I’m missing.

All the conditions are there for a horrific event in our nation’s history, and, yet no one is listening to me and I get the sense that no one else thinks this is a big enough risk to do what should be done — locking down all such facilities until further notice.

This must be one of those things where Maggie Haberman can just talk to Dr. Trump and he’ll tell her some reveled truth. I’m just a hayseed rube in a remote portion of a fly over state, what do I know? But here are the datapoints that are alarming me right now.

15,600 nursing homes in the United States
1.4 million patients.

The elderly 65+ are most at risk of succumbing to COVID19.

People in close proximity to each other (like a cruise ship or…a rest home) can be all infected quite quickly. (A mental institution in South Korea saw something like 90% infection rate).

We’re totally luzling this in the United States.

About 47 million Americans are 65+.

A rest home isn’t like a prison. You actually want to go there. People from all over the country visit them to see older relatives. It makes sense that, as such, we could see rather abrupt spike in infections across the country as the contagion uses each of the rest homes as an “signal amplifier.” The contagion will be far, far stronger than it might be otherwise because people will unknowingly visit these facilities during the incubation period, get infected and spread it even farther into the general population.

And, yet, I must be missing something. I’m always wrong. Something about the Kirkland County facility must be unique, the conditions different than everywhere else the nation.

That’s all I got right now.

Of #Pandemic Terminology

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, real talk. I am well aware that in the early days of AIDS, it was often referred to as “The Gay Plague.” I have thought a lot about my use of the phrase, “The Gray Plague” in that historical context and I feel comfortable using it going forward.

The reason is, while “The Gay Plague” was proscription, “The Gray Plague” is descriptive. AIDS is actually pretty hard to get and a lot of people who weren’t gay got it in the early years because of tainted blood transfusions. And calling AIDS “The Gay Plague” was often used to harm the gay community and make people even more homophobic than they already were in the 80s.

Meanwhile, it’s not like people are going to avoid old people because of The Gray Plague. Going forward, the vast majority of people who die from COVID19, are going to be, well, old. So, yes, I guess is sounds rather tabloid to call it The Gray Plague, it is also a reasonably accurate description of what’s going on. It really is a potential massive culling of older people along the lines of the Black Plague.

The other term is “Wuflop.” Now, there’s a medical term for this that I can’t find. But I’m growing leery of using WuFlop because, well, MAGA are a bunch of fucking racist who will likely hop on the term to do God-only-knows what to Asian people of all stripes. So, I will continue to use the term in a sort of gallows’ humor fashion until I find out what the actual scientific term for the event is.

Whatever its scientific term, the WuFlop is eerie as hell and Americans simply aren’t prepared to see it happen here.

I have completely stopped using WuFlu outside of some things I step early on in the pandemic on this Website.I started using it at first because I thought it was an amusing reference to Wu-tang Clan. MAGA shitheads are trying to brand it the Wuhan Flu so they can blame the Chinese government and continue to suck Trump’s political cock.

I look forward to spitting in the eye of the Fourth Reich ICE agent who arrests me for these posts before he puts a bullet in the back of my head. Good times!

My Current ‘Gray Plague’ Death Toll Prediction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At a minimum, within one (1) year, I believe about 1 million elderly people in the United States will have died preventable deaths. Or, put another way, at a minimum, whenever the COVID19 vaccine is approved and is being used that’s how many elderly people would otherwise be alive if, say, Trump was an actual traditional president.

Here’s where I get that figure.

If 1.4 million high-risk elderly people are in 15,600 homes across the country, then that’s probably (maybe) 600,000 people who may die rather abruptly and in a very alarming manner over the course of a few (early) months. That 1.4 million people are sitting ducks to die from COVID19 as things stand. As COVID19 bounces around the general population, a lot of people with COVID19 will visit their elderly relatives while unknowningly sick with COVID19.

But that’s just the beginning. There are 47 million Americans 65+. Roll that around in your head for a moment and it’s not too far fetched to assume at least an additional 400,000 elderly people will die who might not otherwise have died with an abundance of precaution.

Now, if you really wanted to get dark, you would say that rest homes are really just a means to an end. Each one of those 15,600 nursing homes will be strategic superspreaders. Before we even realize what’s going on, not only will a horrific number of at-risk elderly people die, but the general contagion will be signficiantly amplfied across the country from people who have gone in and out of one of those facilities before we even know what’s going on.

But, before a Twitter Liberal tweets this to prove how I’m a “dangerous charlatan” spreading bad information as a part of “fear porn” — please don’t listen to anything I have to say. I just like running scenarios and writing. Hence, this post.

I’m probably wrong. I’m always wrong. But the above is my general sense, as of right now, as to how potentially bad things might get. It could be less severe, it could be worst. Who knows. I can’t predict the future.

Some Alarming ‘Gray Plague’ Datapoints.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

15,600 nursing homes in the United States
1.4 million patients.

The elderly 65+ are most at risk of succumbing to COVID19.

People in close proximity to each other (like a cruise ship or…a rest home) can be all infected quite quickly. (A mental institution in South Korea saw something like 90% infection rate).

We’re totally luzling this in the United States.

About 47 million Americans are 65+.

Those datapoints, to me at least, seem to point to a historic, preventable catastrophe in the making.

The Gray Plague: Apocalypse Now — Our Rest Homes Are In Extreme, Immediate Danger

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. The existing datapoints are flashing red on this one.

The elderly 65+ are most at risk of succumbing to COVID19.
People in close proximity to each other (like a cruise ship or…a rest home) can be all infected quite quickly. (A mental institution in South Korea saw something like 90% infection rate).
We’re totally luzling this in the United States.
About 47 million Americans are 65+.

We already have a case of ONE rest home in Washington State being, essentially, a strategic super-spreader of COVID19.

So, logically, if we’re not taking this seriously and “jungle rules” are applying right now to the spread of COVID19, then, well, it’s looking pretty grim.

The thing I didn’t realize is one reason why The Gray Plague may be far, far more deadly than I initally realized is where the most at-risk elderly people in any one community are: all together in one spot.

A rest home.

So, if we had any leadership, we would lock down all rest homes immediately and require very strict metrics for outsiders to visit them.

As we doing this?

Nope!

Little Big Man Mick Mulvany told me this is “isn’t SARS, this isn’t Ebola.” Just sit back, think of Trump, tax cuts, young hack MAGA judges and getting fucked on a historic scale.

The Gray Plague Is Now A Very Real Possibility #Covid19 #CoronaVirus

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is growing more and more apparent that something I’ve been ranting about for some time — The Gray Plague — is a very real possibility going forward. In fact, given how much of the levers of power are controlled by, well, old people, the way the general populace might wake up to the severity of the crisis we’re facing is the first wave of The Gray Plague.

I’m not advocating — it’s not like I’m rooting for this to happen, despite what Don Jr. might say — but we have to take this seriously. Should a number of older powerful people begin to drop dead, then, well, it’s not something we can just lulz. There will, in fact, be real-world consquences that change the lives of millions.

I will note, in passing that on a superficial level I’ve noticed a minor uptick in 80-year-old people dying. Jack Welch. James Lipton. A few others. It’s at least possible that a combination of family privacy and misdiagnosis is causing us to not to realize that The Gray Plague is ALREADY HERE. The death rate for people in their 80s is a brutal 15%.

Or, if you want to really think strictly from the metric of saving as many lives as possible, if the families of some of these 80s year old people would come out and say their loved one had died of COVID19, then, maybe, a lot more people would take this seriously and lives might be saved because of this. But that may be rather delusional this early in the process. It may take someone really powerful for that to happen, which, in itself, is rather tragic.

Anyway, maybe this is I’m just being hysterical as everyone keeps telling me. Trump tells me’s going to magically vanish in April and Little Big Man Mick Mulvaney said I should just “turn the TV off” if I’m worried. Right? Lulz.

‘Triage’ #Covid19 #CoronaVirus

I feel like I have The Martha Mitchell Syndrome.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I may just be a “delusional jerk with a good heart,” but I can read. It seems as though we have to stop assuming some vague, scary number as to the coming test results and think about what we might learn in concreat terms. It appears as though COVID19 has been in the United States since at least mid-January. Apparently, when an outbreak gets bad enough that you notice it, it begins to double in the 6 day – 12 day time frame.

Something about the outbreaks in Iran and Italy are different than, say, the outbreak in South Korea. The Italy outbreak seems to be spreading like wildfire. The Iranian outbreak seems to be more potent, maybe. I have no idea what I’m talking about, but I’m simply telling what appears to be true. If what I’m noticing isn’t true, it’s not, like, wilful disinformation on my part, for Christ’s sake. This is, after all, a blog that on a good day, might get 500 unique hits in a day. That’s a rounding for the places you should be reading for information on what’s going on.

Anyway, the point is, the States appears to all the slight variations of COVID19 that are floating around the globe. So, I would suggest that maybe things might get A LOT worse than we expect right now. Given how mobile the American population is, the fact that nursing homes are serving as “national superspreaders” AND criminally incompetence the Trump Administration is about doing anything to stop the spread of the virus, I suggest we may have as many as 100,000 verified cases in two weeks.

Remember, Northern Italy and Iran are pretty much imploading as we speak and they’re actively working to halt the virus’ spread. We, meanwhile, are doing jack shit. In fact, the only real metric we are going to have in the near term is, well, people getting sick.

One thing to remember — there haven’t been any reports of cases within the penal system — or ICE camps, for that matter. Once we do, things may get far worse in the public’s eyes. Also, WuFlop hasn’t been recorded in the United States yet. And that, in itself, will freak everyone out. Add to this The Gray Plague, and you have something of a historic disaster on your hands. At some point, you may have to simply do triage. What can you keep functioning so you can save lives?

We need to worry about three things: 1) Food 2) Lights 3) Military readiness. If we can’t keep those three things going, then everything is going to be a disaster. We have to have those three things to do the next thing: make sure we save as many people as possible. If we’re worried about the economy as we rush towards such a unprecedented long term crisis, we’re only going to ensure that a lot of people get sick and or die.

I suspect that the event that would kick off the actual long-term crisis of this pandemic would be a number of famous — and powerful — elderly people dropping dead in quick succession. That would definitely focus the population’s mind. And, also, remember, another big issue at the start of all of this –will Trump implode or explode mentally as it grows ever-more apparent that he’s going to going to be able to weasel his way out of his. If his absolute need to win at any costs slams against the absolute realization that he may have to, at last, face some sort of accountability, well, THAT will be interesting.

Honestly, I’ll just be glad if the human race makes it out alive at that point. Maybe that’s why we’ve yet to find any aliens — they all inevitably elect alien unhinged Right Wing Twitter Trolls who blow their planets up.

I wish I was joking.

‘The Big One’ #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep hearing chatter about how COVID19 isn’t “The Big One.” Well, all things being equal, it isn’t. And, yet, maybe it is. The Trump Administration is criminally mismanaging this situation to such an extent that, at least in the United States, it really might be The Big One.

Each nation has a different dynamic to it when it comes to fighting this pandemic. What is rather unsettling is we probably should have shut down all passenger flights some time ago if we were really serious about stopping COVID19 from being The Big One. In the popular imaginnation, because of things like The Stand, we assume that a lot of people would have to die for it to be The Big One.

What if it was just a lot of people got SICK. Like, a huge number. So much so that entire nations (ex: USA) became incapacitated. I think you could call THAT “The Big One.” Trump really is doing everything in his power to screw this up on a massive level. He’s doing a criminally bad job of not only mitigating this situation, but preparing the populace for the next step — triage.

There may come a point when we have to a national “family talk” about some pretty dark things. Like, what do we do when COVID19 rushes into the prison system? What do we do, if anything to save those people? What happens when the health system collapses and people with serious, non-COVID19 illnesses can’t get help? Who pays for all of this? What happens to people who are too sick not to go to work and they can’t go to work? Who feeds their children and keeps the lights on?

And that doesn’t even begin to address both The Gray Plague and the perception crisis that a lot of recorded instances of WuFlop would cause. Those two things in combination in the United States would likely be, in itself, The Big One in the American popular imagination. It would dwarf 9/11 in our culture for no other reason that if 11 million people died, many of them elderly, someone, somewhere might notice and hold Trump, at last, accountable. I DON’T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. But if it tragically did, I’d at least like our naked emperor to be held accountable on a political level for once.

We’re just not prepared to answer those questions right now. A lot and I mean A LOT of preventable suffering is probably going to happen pretty soon. Sometime between now and The Ides of March is my guess. You can’t lulz something this serious without there being some consequences. The United States is setting itself up for an enormous — preventable — disaster on a pretty historic scale. So much so that it may be “The Big One” to Americans to an extent it is not elsewhere in the world.

Or maybe not.

Maybe Trump’s plan of messaging the base, hoping COVID19 will “burn itself out” and “magically vanish” in April as it grows warmer will work and he’ll use its return in October as an excuse to suspend the Constitution and put me in an ICE Re-Education Camp. Lulz!

‘Slicing The Boil’ #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sept 11, 2001 was a unique event in American history because within minutes of the first attack happening, the entire country was thinking about the same thing at the same time. This almost never happens given how large the United State’s population is.

Given that we’re not doing any mitigation, what would it look like when we slice the boil and have to start doing triage? What would that event look like?

The only thing I can think of is, The Gray Plague would occur rather abruptly in the guise of a lot of powerful or well known celebrities dying in very quick succession. Like, within hours of each other. If, say, 40 well known elderly people from across the spectrum of American public life simply dropped dead, that might be noticed by someone, somewhere. Even if we didn’t know why they died, it would be alarming if that many elderly people dropped dead.

Another thing that might spark the event that pushed us into a massive domestic crisis might be reports of the “WuFlop” happening in the United States. I’ve already gotten snookered by a fake news report of this happening in the United States, so I’m feeling a little touchy mentioning it. But, I have to. The WuFlop is so eerie, so disturbing, that if the American public saw it happen more than once across the country within, say, a 48 hour period, it might be enough to cause some serious panic. Of course, it is unlikely the broadcast news shows would even show such events. But it would likely be spread widely around social media and, as such be an extreme version of the Clinton Blue Dress situation where everyone knew something but it wasn’t reported on TV.

I can’t predict the future. I don’t have revealed truth, but I can read. And, I know what’s happened in other countries. Places like Italy and South Korea have had significant outbreaks of COVID19, EVEN WITH “social distancing” and testing. Places like Iran, however, have been less transparent and less proactive on those fronts and have suffered the consquences.

The great tragedy of COVID19 in the United States will be we were given two months to prevent and mitigate its spread and we blow it. We totally blew it. Trump is — and always has been — nothing more than a historically lucky Right Wing Twitter troll, so, lulz. And his only metrics are greed, power and cruelty, so, really he doesn’t have our best interests at heart and we’re going to have to fend for ourselves.

I would also suggest that Trump may snap. In fact, it could be Trump finally going completely fucking bonkers that is, in itself, the crisis that prompts our descent into chaos. If Trump whips his cock out and starts stroking it. Or starts to use the Presidential Alert System to send us all cock pics. Or if he pretty much just says the N-word all the time, then, well, that would be a crisis. And there wouldn’t be anything we could do about it. There’s just not the political will to address that the emperor has no clothes.

It’s possible that whatever happens won’t be a 9/11 type event. It might be more a rolling clusterfuck. It might be more like what happened in the book Nine Days That Shook The World. It could be a week in which things get worse and worse in the United States to the point that some people will begin to wonder if its the Rapture, or the end of the world or whatever the fuck else people think when they lose hope in the real.

I do think, however, that something akin to martial law is going to happen in the United States out of sheer desperation. All passenger flight will end rather abruptly. In fact, cities may be put on lockdown and all movement WITHIN IN THE UNITED STATES may be — briefly — highly regulated. As I have mentioned before, if you’re still worried about the Stock Market, well, you’re living delusion.

Wall Street will come roaring back in about a year, but in the short term it’s going to be moot.

Buckle up.

America Is ‘Flirting With Disaster’ #COVID19

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When the history of this pandemic is written, there’s likely to be more than one book written about what went wrong in the very moment we’re living in. It has a very “Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US” vibe to it. But this is far, far worse.

It’s as if center-Left states KNEW 9/11 was preventable and were doing something about it, while the center-Right states were lulzing. Because none of this is happening in a vacuum, well, it’s going to suck for all of us. I will admit, however, that this is a very surreal moment for me personally. I hate it when people deny reality, but there a lot A LOT of people around me right now who are doing just that.

All the datapoints are pointing towards a pretty dramatic event vis-a-vis COVID19 within the next two weeks (by The Ides of March) and, yet, a lot of people think its coverage is just a “liberal media hoax to make Trump look bad.”

Ugh.

Because we aren’t testing very many people, we still don’t have much of a metric that might help us mitigate the spread of COVID19. It’s because of this that we’re going to soon be past mitigation and into triage. We’re going to have to start thinking about what we can save in the near term. It’s unlikely that the economy is going to be saved when the boil is finally lanced and we realize we’re in a real-life horror movie.

I would like to note, however, that all of this could have been avoided. Yes, there’s a chance that if we did “too good” a job, our leaders would look like idiots, just like Ford and swine flu, but at least lives would have been proactively saved.

Another thing — we have to prepare ourselves for The Gray Plague. It’s very possible that a lot, and I mean A LOT, of well known old people are going to drop in the next year. It could be astonishing how many elderly people die between now and when this rolling crisis is finally wrapped up. And, remember a lot of POWERFUL PEOPLE ARE OLD.

So, lulz.

I feel like even if I’m “vindicated,” it’s going to be such a tragedy that I’m not going to feel all that happy about it.

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