I don’t know what it will be, but it definitely seems as though Something Bad is careening towards the United States in late 2024, early 2025. We’re in for something of a Perfect Storm with a political Fourth Turning happening at the same time as a Petite Singularity.
But what that “Bad Thing” is, I just don’t know. And, all things considered, I’d prefer that “Bad Thing” be America peacefully shifting into a MAGA-themed autocracy than the alternative which is — gulp — something a bit more violent. Or, put another way, America is far more politically unstable at the moment than you might think the globe’s first hyperpower should be.
And, remember I still think that, in the end, it will be Blues, not Reds, who face the real choice about how bad things are going to get. And Blues just don’t have the same hot-head temperament as Reds. America generally is a center-Right nation with center-Left ideals and, lulz, there have only been a few times in our history when that most elusive of political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” have popped up.
If America had a center-Left Second Revolution, it would only be because Radical Moderates popped up because the average, common man with a mortgage was mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. Reds are politically ascendant and so they really have no reason to get violent, unless they magically somehow AGAIN don’t win the presidential election.
All signs point to 2024 – 2025 being extremely, extremely EXTREMELY unstable both because of The Fourth Turning and The Petite Singularity.
But I’m always wrong. So I suppose it’s possible we’ll somehow magically punt these structural problems down the road another four years.
Just in the last few days, the MAGA chattering class on Twitter has decided to go all-in on fascism. They’re openly talking about the need for a Right wing dictator along the lines of Franco, of all people.
And, given that it definitely seems as though the United States is about to default for the first time ever, it seems as though the conditions for the US to transition into a fascist state are just about there. Trump will be get re-elected — even if he’s under indictment for violating the Espionage Act — he will demand MAGA Enabling Acts be stapled to the Constitution via a new Constitutional Convention and, there you go — The Fourth Reich.
All my hysterical doom shit — the shit that got me blocked by Twitter liberal darling Mueller, She Wrote — will come true. And we’ll be faced with the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution.
It definitely seems as though that’s our future. Or, put another way, the moment the US defaults for the first time, all bets are off. The French Empire defaulted in the years leading up to the French Revolution, so, lulz? Either we implode into a white Christian ethnostate or we explode into civil war / revolution.
If it happens, it’s probably going to be at some point in late 2024, early 2025.
While I continue to vacillate widely between thinking we’re going to have a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 and thinking we’re going to simply give up and become an autocracy, I see clear path towards the latter at the moment. Given what happened to the Roman Republic, I think there is a really good chance we’ll become a zombie democracy.
Or, put another way, if we’re able to avoid a civil war as part of the next election cycle, it seems logical that we’ll continue to ostensibly be a democracy but, in reality be anything but. We’ll become a legalistic, autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia. A lot of how this goes down exactly will depend on if it’s Trump or DeSantis who is the GQP’s 2024 presidential nominee.
If it’s Trump, then, lulz, the possibility of the United States having a civil war grows significantly. If it’s DeSantis, then, yeah, we’ll probably lurch towards a few presidential cycles where we all think we’re a democracy, but, in fact, we’ve finally transitioned into autocracy. I just don’t see DeSantis ever peacefully leaving office.
He’ll pull a Putin and be POTUS for eight years, then become Speaker of the House and be the power behind the throne until he gets around to having enough power to call a Constitutional Convention. All of this would be happening in the context of millions of smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country for the four corners of the globe.
Our current political situation is very unstable and untenable. Something’s gotta give. This is very much the quiet before the storm. And as I keep saying, the only thing that really worries me is America’s original sin, race. It’s because of race that I could see us zooming past Russia’s form autocracy into something a lot closer to Nazi Germany.
I really enjoy listening to the All-In podcast because it challenges me, forces me to listen to people I generally don’t agree with politically. They are interesting, intelligent people who just so happen to find fascism way, way, too palatable. When your metrics for assessing something miss the issue of what is morally right, your politics are all fucked up.
Because, literally, the exact same reasoning that several people on the All-In podcast give for various degrees of support for Trump and MAGA could have been used by German industrialists in the 1930s.
But it’s David Sacks who shocks me with his consistently bad hot takes. His politics are identical to a relative of mine and so it is useful to listen to his bullshit for the next time I find myself debating politics with said relative. Sacks is “all in” with being a fifth columnist who supports Russia over Ukraine and the United States.
He is very intense and seems to have a huge fucking chip on his shoulder. It’s all very weird. But he’s cogent enough in his terrible hot takes that you find yourself listening to him and weighing different counter-arguments you might use to point out his hypocrisy.
Anyway, the point is — I’m growing very alarmed at the recent shift in politics among Tech Bros. They are very receptive to America’s new brand of fascism and, in the end, when we maybe need their support to stop the last seizure of power by fascists, they won’t be there for us.
As I keep saying, fascism is very popular in the United States. There is a certain segment of the American Right which has, because of the huge cultural chip on their shoulder, given up on democratic norms and craves permanent white minority rule.
They feel so put upon that they are willing to sacrifice their American birthright of democracy in the name of not having to learn people’s pronouns or ensuring that their children aren’t “indoctrinated” with the “mind virus” of the “woke cancel culture mob” while at college.
There’s an extensive not just permission structure but ecosystem that has been built out for MAGA Nazis and their fellow travelers. They are so enraged about the changing nature of American society — and what they feel they “can’t say anymore” — that they would rather live in a fascist state than have the politics of a functioning Western democracy where things would get hashed out one way or another.
It’s because of how broken our politics are so broken that things that would otherwise get hashed out — like “What is a woman” — are festering to the point that our slide into fascism is almost inevitable at this point. And the “woke cancel culture mob” does none of us any good by screaming at the top of their lungs over how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin or this or that “unwoke” thing in a movie that triggers them because it doesn’t fit their strict woke orthodoxy.
The part that boggles my mind is MAGA Nazis love, love, love to conflate the soft power of smug elite Twitter liberals with the hard power of the government. They do this to the point that they are forced to twist themselves into rhetorical pretzels when it comes to basic issues of free speech. In the end, it’s a matter of “Free speech for me but not for thee.”
They want to control who gets free speech, but in such a way that they “own the libs,” even if makes them look like hypocrites.
All of this boils down to the extreme negative polarization because of changing American demographics that make straight white Christian men feel nervous about their status in society. It’s very easy to see the trainwreck that is about to happen in American politics at some point between now and, say, spring 2025. I say this with fear that things like ChatGPT could destroy the American economy rather quickly as we transition into a post-work economy.
I don’t know what to tell you. There are no easy answers, no easy solutions. Maybe get a passport? Figure out what you believe in when it comes to things with real world implications?
The big difference between MAGA and traditional Nazis is they more like the Cambodian Khmer Rouge. That’s my biggest fear at the moment — that the United States is going to implode like Cambodia rather than try to take over the world like the Nazis.
There’s not much of a need for the United States to take over the world, we already have!
So, if our fears come true with the next Republican president, what our new MAGA Nazis overlords do will look like what the Khmer Rouge did. It most likely express itself in the guise of Qanon ideas becoming party orthodox.
Now, this is where I have to pause and say that the targets of these new prospective Killing Fields have the means to just leave the country. So, that would probably be the first indication that things are about to get lit — many, many wealthy liberals will simply flee the country, never to be seen again.
So, if there were MAGA Nazi Killing Field it would the average, poor people who will get rounded up and murdered en masse for political reasons. The reason I have this on the brain is I’m reading about the transformation of the Weimar Republic into the Third Reich.
Sometimes, the Darkest Timeline actually happens. And it definitely seems that on a macro level, at least, the United States is careening towards MAGA Nazi autocracy a lot sooner than you might think.
Of course, there is always the OTHER option, which is everything I just described happens, but it happens in the context of a National Divorce. Under this scenario, MAGA Nazis would be radicalized as part of a civil war. If there was no clear winner of such a civil war and the United States was simply split into to hostile nations, then while Trumplandia was beginning to see American Killing Fields, the Blue Union would return to some semblance of normality.
But all of that is very, very speculative. All I know is it is self-evident that at least the conditions are there for something very dark and turbulent to happen to the United States starting at some point between now and spring 2025.
Now that the 2022 midterms are over, let’s take a deep breath and think again about how likely it is that we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. The boner that MAGA Nazis have over this issue comes in large part from the fucking froth found within far Right circles.
It took me a long time to realize what was going on, but now I think I have a better handle on things — the reason why MAGA Nazis have civil war on the brain so much is they want the ability to murder people like me in cold blood without having to worry about any criminal accountability. Once the rules of war, not law are in play, then they can finally end the “woke cancel culture mobs” tyranny of “grooming” and forcing them to learn to hate white people and attend drag queen storytime on their way to their gender reassignment surgery.
But, you say, “Are we going to have a civil war?“
Well, I don’t know yet. But I can tell you that if it happens, I just don’t see it being because MAGA Nazis take up arms in rolling political violence like civil war expert Barbara F. Walter thinks. She’s so busy thinking about how angry Reds are, that she misses that the dynamic is such that it will be Blues — the majority of the country — that will ultimately face the decision as to if we’re going to have a civil war or not.
But I will say that for a lot of people — especially people within the MAGA Nazis community — the idea of a Second American Civil War has taken on an air of inevitability. It’s al very ironic because the very people who just need to be patient so they can get everything they want through politics, MAGA Nazis, ironically are the ones chomping at the bit to run around murdering people.
It’s because of that weird, ironic, dynamic that I have serious doubts that we’re going to have a civil war. If you take out the possibility that MAGA Nazis are going to spontaneously take up arms to overthrow their smug “woke cancel culture mob” overlords…well, I just don’t think the logical people to start a civil war — Blues — have it in them to do it.
And, remember, the issue is of Trump.
If anyone could start a civil war, it’s ding-dong Trump. But, still, any civil war that happens will be caused when Blue States refuse to bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism. That’s it — I just don’t see Reds doing what they keep thinking and talking about. They have no need to. They’re getting everything they want through politics because they control the “attention economy” with a tyrannical vise grip.
So, my answer is — we’re not going to have a civil war. Either we somehow magically punt the tectonic problems we have as a nation down the road one more presidential cycle…or we have another Republican POTUS and he / she turns us into an autocratic state that probably will, if we’re lucky, looking like Hungary or Turkey, and if we’re not…Russia or Nazi Germany .
The worst MAGA Nazis are the well meaning, earnest ones who simply refuse to take my alarm over their movement seriously. This enrages me because not only should these MAGA Nazis know better, but they seem so heartfelt in their adherence to a racist, mygonsistic fascist enterprise.
I want them to be angry at me because at least then they would be validating the fact that I think MAGA is American Nazism.
I do, I really, really believe this.
And I think we should be acting accordingly. Barring something I can’t predict — I am wrong all the time, afterall — late 2024, early 2025 could be some of the most dramatic months in American history. I say this because of Trump always says the quiet part outloud.
It is possible that somehow he isn’t the Republican nominee and one of the more “palatable” MAGA Nazis like Ron DeSantis becomes our first autocrat and he’s so smooth in his shepherding of American transition into fascism that the only way we’ll notice that things are changing is how many wealthy liberals are fleeing the country.
The key thing for me is we have to stop validating MAGA. We have to equate MAGA with American Nazism and act accordingly. However you would treat an American Nazi, that’s how you should treat a MAGA person. It’s very difficult to do at the point because, well, for the most part MAGA has been all talk. But it definitely seems as though MAGA, given the chance, is going to take America down a very dark path.
The other options, of course, being a civil war (or maybe a military junta.) At the moment, I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. Blues just don’t have the spunk necessary to pull it off. So, when the time comes, Blue States will bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism and that will be that.
The wildcard being, of course, maligant dingus Trump. He could, personally, unto himself, cause a civil war he’s such an idiot.
But let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Maybe we can punt our existential problems down the road one more presidential election cycle.
Despite a lot of authoritarian rhetoric on Trump’s part over the years, it’s actually kind of rare that he goes transactional. Sure, he rants incoherently a lot, but he doesn’t often tell people to actually do something. The exception to that rule was, of course January 6th.
Uh oh.
The January 6th Insurrection happened because Trump pounded away at the issue for months. And even then, Trump was very vague about what he wanted. He never came out and said he wanted people to attempt to browbeat Mike Pence with the threat of violence to not do his job, preferring to concoct his plan to do just that in the shadows.
But now Trump — probably because he’s unhappy that Elon Musk and Ye have cornered the being-bonkers-in-public-market — has decided to go transactional, if in a very abstract manner that the average person probably will shrug at. Trump is now demanding in a very direct way for the Constitution to be suspended so he can become president again.
In short, he’s being transactional in the sense that he’s saying specifically what he wants to have happen so he can get what he wants.
The thing is, I suspect some of this is the man never met a culturally sacred concept he didn’t feel the temptation to soil, so him demanding the destruction of America’s beloved Constitution is just par for the course in that regard.
But it is very alarming that Trump would have being a dictator on the brain, given that he’s currently the front runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. So, in that regard, Trump continues to be an existential threat to the stability of the United States in the sense that he could, unto himself, cause a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 by single-handedly driving Blue States out of the Union.
And, yet, things are very much hit or miss with Trump when it comes to his ability to actually get anyone to do any of the crazy things he rants about. But we have to take him seriously as a threat to our democracy.
In general, I doubt Trump is interested in being Speaker of the House. He’s just too dumb to have the abstract cognitive abilities to do something so norm breaking and diabolical. All of his political instincts are little more than a grunt. And, remember, Trump is not a Great Man of History. He’s just a very lucky idiot who serves as an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage.
As such, if anyone is going to be Speaker who isn’t a member of the House, it’s probably going to be Newt Gingrich. He would be an ideal Trump proxy for bonkers MAGA House Republicans and he already has experience impeaching a Democratic president.
I don’t think we really appreciate what at fucking clusterfuck 2023 is shaping up to be on the political and impeachment front — despite the thin majority Republicans have in the House, Republicans there have one thing they all agree on: spite.
I could very well see Republicans impeach both Biden and Harris multiple times specifically to be extremely petty — they would want to take away the Democratic talking point of Trump being the only president impeached twice. At the same time, impeaching Biden (and Harris) a few times would retroactively make Trump’s impeachments no big deal.
“Everyone gets impeached,” MAGA House Republicans would say.
The only way I see there being a Speaker Trump is if the battle over the Spearship lingers long enough for it to catch Trump’s attention. I could see, maybe, Trump seeing an opportunity and swooping in to be Speaker because he’s the one person that the entire Republican caucus — or at least 218 of them — can agree on.
And don’t let yourself be fooled by the myth of the “moderate Republican” who would object to Speaker Trump. Ha! Just like there were probably moderate Nazis, there are “moderate” MAGA Republicans who will inevitable tow the line should they be forced to vote for a Speaker Trump.
I want to be wrong. But, then, I would prefer Biden and Harris not be impeached a few times between January 2023 and November 2024.
If Republicans take the House, which historically, they are favored to do, MAGA will have the power to impeach members of the Biden Administration. Given how fucking spiteful a Republican controlled House will be, it’s not a question of if more than one member of the Biden Administration will be impeached, it’s if there’s anyone who WON’T be impeached.
Here’s a back-of-the-envelope prediction about all the potential impeachments we should expect in 2023 if Republicans do, in fact, take the House.
President Biden It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”
There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.
At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.
Veep Harris I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.
DHS Secretary Mayorkas As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.
HHS Secretary Becerra This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?
Education Secretary Cardona This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.
FBI Director Wray If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.
Attorney General Garland This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.
There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.
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