It has become a matter of gospel within Right wing ranks that the evil liberal cabal that is out to get good (white) Christian men and women is using “lawfare” against Trump.
But, it gets worse.
Even people who don’t support Trump the person, have gotten into their noggins that this is the case. You can tell this nothing more than a fill-airtime-in-an-argument talking point when you press these people about the classified document case against Trump.
When you point out that Biden also had an investigation against him for classified documents they suddenly just wave their hand and move on to their next point. So, according to their logic, even though Trump is being investigated for something legitimate — stealing national secrets — it’s still lawfare because they think it’s neat to use the word “lawfare.”
It’s shit like this that makes me wonder if we, as a nation, will be able to survive past 2025. There is growing evidence that if Trump becomes POTUS again that we’re all in for a very, very bumpy ride. Either because about 1 million well educated wealthy liberals leave the country in a massive brain drain, or we depose Trump in some way and there’s a civil war.
Some of the political rhetoric spewing out of the MAGA Republican right these days is so insane that it’s hard not to see how all of this ends in civil war / revolution or some sort of Pol Pot American Killing Fields. I mean, it is a tenant of faith at the moment in most Republican circles that Democrats personally kill a baby at least once a day.
And it continues to get worse. Trump keeps cribbing off of Nazi ideas in his speeches in a way to telegraph exactly what he plans to do. Now, there is something interesting to think about.
If Trump is re-elected, I assume he’ll go after undocumented people by dramatically building out the existing ICE infrastructure. But it definitely seems as though once things get going that MAGA is coming for gay people in a big way. But it won’t stop there — because form follows function, the Jews will inevitable be put in the camps along with the undocumented, the gay, and the mentally ill.
But, of course, none of this is going to happen in a political vacuum. And never forget that Trump doesn’t have an American SA to knock heads. He doesn’t have a nation-wide paramilitary group of a few million men to swoop in after he’s re-elected and bash the heads in of Blues to “persuade” them to keep their head down while Trump establishes Trumplandia.
The United States is just too diverse and decentralized for anyone — much less ding-dong Trump — to establish a military dictatorship without the assistance of an SA-like paramilitary group. So, even if 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country starting in late 2024, there will still be PLENTY of Blues who refuse to kowtow to Tyrant Trump.
What that will mean in real terms for the future of the country, I just don’t know. But we can all point to the bonkers Right wing rhetoric that’s being pumped out at the moment, a year before, as a sign of things to come.
Any understanding of what Tyrant Trump is chomping at the bit to do should he win re-election gives every indication that he doesn’t want to be an autocrat — he wants to be a military dictator.
There is a big difference between being an autocrat and being a military dictator. An autocrat — usually in the beginning at least — is willing to play by the rules of civil society. That has been a go-to play for every autocrat since Augustus Caesar.
And that’s what I’ve always assumed Trump would do. I thought he would use the basic elements of being a strong man as seen in Russia, Hungary and Turkey. But from what I can tell from his obsession with the Insurrection Act, Trump really does want to go full tyrant by being a military dictator.
His decision to go full tyrant maybe be out of a combination of how stupid he is and the simple fact that he doesn’t have a MAGA SA to knock heads. He thinks invoking the Insurrection Act is like fascist magic pixie dust that will solve all of his problems, being too stupid to realize if instead of “four dead in Ohio” we have “10,000 dead in LA” that the American populace could, collectively freak the fuck out.
EVEN IF Trump had some sort of an organized paramilitary arm of MAGA, the US of 2025 is not the same as Germany 1933. The United States is huge, decentralized, diverse and has a long, long tradition of a free society. You would have to have at least 500,000 MAGA SA members who could swoop into restive Blue States and knock heads.
And simply using the U.S. Military — an democratic institution itself — to get what you want just isn’t going to cut it. At least, I’d like to think so. I suppose I’m giving the U.S. Military too much credit by thinking that if there was some sort of collective action like a General Strike or a Women’s Strike that that might be enough to cause it to stand down — or even join any sort of movement to depose Tyrant Trump.
But there are many, many known unknowns. We’re still a year away from all of this and there is always a pretty good chance that Trump will not win, fade into political oblivion and everything will work itself out.
Potential Scenarios for late 2024, early 2025:
Trump Loses — gives up It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame) If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
The key thing to remember about Trump is he is so fucking stupid and lazy that he a one man stress test of the traditional American Constitutional order. As such, even though — EVEN THOUGH — America is spread eagle, ready and willing to get fucked by an autocrat, Trump is sooooo stupid and lazy that he could fuck things up.
America collectively ready on a political basis to slob the knob of an autocrat, but Trump is such a ham-handed lover that she might pull away because the vibes are all wrong. What I mean by that is, even with Agenda47 and other fascist ideas, Trump could push the average American to the point where they might be willing to participate in a General Strike or Women’s Strike, even though that would go against two centuries of American political and labor history.
But that would only happen if things grew REALLY EXTREME. Trump would have to be snatching the Clintons and Obamas off the street in a really conspicuous way for such things to happen. Whatever the Second Trump Administration was doing, it would have to be something so fucking tyrannical that your typical Traditionalist who just wants brown children in cages again would actually sit up and take notice.
That’s the great irony. If ANY OTHER Republican became president in 2025, they would be smart enough to be a “light touch” autocrat until they were powerful enough to finally strangle what’s left of American democracy. But Trump is soooooo stupid and lazy, he could very well cause Traditionalists to turn into Radical Moderates who will at least accept his overthrow at the hands of the U.S. Military.
But A LOT of things would have to go wrong for us to get to that point. Trump would really have to push the otherwise pretty laid back American population to a breaking point. He would literally have to “lock her up” in such a way that the average American woman simply decides not to go to work for a few days until she’s released — at a minium.
At the moment — I just don’t see that happening. Americans just don’t have it in them. But, who knows?
If malignant ding-dong Trump manages to get re-elected in 2024, the thing that will make everyone in the Unites States take notice will be the sheer number of people who will flee the country. And it could be more than just the usual loudmouth Twitter liberals.
It could be some really notable people in American culture who bounce. To the point that it could begin to be compared to what happened when Hitler took over Germany in 1933. And, if it gets bad enough, it will be referred to as an “American Brain Drain.”
To put another way — the moment it’s clear that Trump has won the 2024 Election, there will be mass chaos in the United States that will either end with the establishment of a military dictatorship or…..?
I AM NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING.
I’m just pointing out the obvious — Trump may very well push average American to unprecedented extremes. It’s one thing for a lot of well meaning Traditionalists to kick out 10 million undocumented people and a whole different matter when their crank liberal-progressive relative (that would be me) gets sent to a camp.
The United States of 2025 is not Germany 1933. And while there will be PLENTY of “Good Germans” if things get as bad as I fear, the Untied States is so diverse and decentralized — and Trump doesn’t have an SA to be his goons — if, say, a weaponized ICE infrastructure dragnet puts people like me in a camp…who knows what might happen.
So. What are we going to do if ding-dong Trump goes full tyrant and starts to shut down the free press? The issue is *ANY* Republican who becomes president would do all the same shit that Trump wants to do, but they would be a lot more sly about it and stagger the throttling of our American birthright — democracy — over the course of a few years.
But Trump is sooooo dumb and lazy that he is going to thrash around in the first few days of his Second Term and scare the shit out of a lot of Traditionalists who are more than willing to give a huge amount of slack as long as brown children would put back in cages.
It’s because drunk cranks like me who are harmless might get thrown into a camp that Trump might, at last, lose some of the not-so-tacit support that he has with Traditionalists. But for how dumb and lazy Trump is, these Traditionalists would be more than willing to be “Good Americans” as life for every day Americans grew more and more autocratic.
It’s because of what a shocking, jarring — and conspicuous — counter revolution the first few days of a Trump second term would be that we’re potentially going to see some pretty fucking astonishing things happen. And, remember, of course, that it’s very possible that none of this will happen.
It’s POSSIBLE that either Trump loses and doesn’t manage to start a civil war through demands for a National Divorce, or he wins and because 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country the whole thing is a fucking luzl.
If Tyrant Trump fucks up, we may ALL be antifa starting in early 2025. Who knows. We’re still a year out from when things will probably go haywire, so maybe….we’ll just punt our problems down the road another four years like we did in 2020?
Who knows. I’m not advocating anything! I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas. I hate guns. I hate violence. I just am growing more and more alarmed at what MIGHT happen starting Election Day 2024.
Ok. There’s a lot to unpack here. It seems as though malignant ding-dong Trump and his goons MAY have made a pretty big strategic error in their plans to turn the United States into an autocracy starting in late January 2025. As I’ve written before, they assume that through sheer force of will they can corrupt the administration of justice and of the executive and turn America into a Hungary-style managed democracy without any problems.
They seem to think that as long as they have the Insurrection Act in their back pocket that everything else will be unicorns and rainbow farts for their autocratic dreams. That may be so….but I have some quibbles.
The ironic thing is just as liberals seem to think that someone is to swoop in and save us from Trump if they just tweet harder, so, too, do MAGA fascists believe that invocation of the Insurrection Act is some sort of fascist fairy dust. This, despite the U.S. Military being loathed to get involved any political issues fights and the United States being a diverse, decentralized country with a huge population and a long tradition of democracy.
So….lulz?
Yes, there is a lot of low hanging fruit for Trump in the first few days of his tyrannically second administration. He can arrest a lot of people he doesn’t like — or drive them out of the country. He can fire 100,000 civil servants, turn Voice of America into his propaganda organ, pull the US out of NATO and our troops out of Korea and Japan.
BUT…..none of this will happen in a vacuum.
And, as such, if there is some sort of massive revolt against dingus Trump for these tyrannical moves by the population…the Insurrection Act can only do so much. There is a key thing that Trump is missing — he has no paramilitary group to “forcefully suggest” to people that they shut up and go along with the America First agenda….and if they don’t, they end up in a camp.
There are two things to consider at this point.
One is, clearly while Trump is weaponizing the existing ICE infrastructure to round up 10 million(!) undocumented people in the US….he could probably use that same weaponization to turn ICE agents into something akin to the SA. So, I could see Trump passing a HUGE FUCKING BILL that would enlarge the ranks of ICE Agents to an astonishing level. They would serve the purpose of the Nazi SA in the first 100 days of Hitler’s consolidation of power in early 1933.
Or, Trump could go the more direct route and somehow organize an actual MAGA SA made up of consolidated group of Patriot Front, Proud Boys and Oath Keepers who would be his goons as the US lurched towards a Nazi-style autocracy.
BUT….This, too, would NOT happen in a vacuum. There would be some lag time between when all hell broke loose in the US because Trump went full tyrant and the time where he would have a 500,000 goons on the streets to knock heads. That would give anti-fascist forces a window of opportunity. Things like a Woman’s Strike or a General Strike with specific anti-fascist demands might be enough to convince the U.S. Military to at least stand down, if not actively join anti-fascist forces. In a sense, we would all be antifa at that point.
Remember, however, all of this would be happening in the context of mass chaos in the United States. There would be no assurance that any Blue Glorious Revolution would work — it could endup like what happened in Turkey and only make the autocrat more powerful by failing. And even if it was successful, it’s very possible that it would only cause a Secession Crisis as Red States — probably starting with Texas — would leave the Union rather than accept any sort of reforms that they knew would hurt the fascist MAGA agenda.
I don’t think the fucking nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter realize how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected. We would be going to the show, folks. This would be it.
America would either turn into a Russian-style autocratic state or we would somehow found a Third Republic.
I’ve been reading up on this whole Q* issue in its relation to Sam Altman being fired then rehired and it’s all…very curious. Just the idea that we may be approaching AGI is enough to give one pause for thought. And the idea that it may happen between now and when the so-called “Fourth Turning” staring in late 2024, early 2025 is very unsettling.
Imagine that just as the United States is having an existential political crisis, we are also being faced with something akin to a Singularity as well. If we achieve AGI between now and Election Day 2024, then, suddenly the idea of a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious political proposal.
But, wait, there’s more!
What if AGI is considered “woke” by MAGA to the point that they want it destroyed because it starts to take “jerbs” away from blue collar MAGA people? How’s that for a sticky wicket? You would pit the tech against the people at the same time as we the United States debates if it should lurch into fascism. And if AGI came and suddenly the entire economy was thrown up in the air…well, you really have a recipe for economic — and political — disaster.
But I am prone to “hysterical doom shit,” so, lulz, it could be that we just continue to drift through history and we punt our political problems down the road and only gradually reach any sort of technological Singularity. But I am…worried.
It definitely seems as though 2024 – 2025 could be one of the most momentous eras in American, if not human history. Only time will tell.
All signs point to Speaker MAGA Mike impeaching Joe Biden sometime in January. The point of this silly act is simply to make Biden and Trump “equal” in the minds of low information voters as they head to the polls in late 2024. That and a huge amount of spite.
It seems as though Speaker MAGA Mike is doing this at the direct order of ding-dong Trump. The two met recently so the speaker could suck Trump’s political cock. As one does in such a position.
The whole thing is a huge waste of time. But it will only help to cement Trump’s absolute power over House Republicans. And, remember, when should Trump go full tyrant once he’s re-elected, if the House is Republican….he’s going to have pretty much absolute power. He will be able to consolidate power through Agenda47, Schedule F and Project 2025 quite quickly.
Then, given how form follows function, we’re going to have a Constitutional Convention that will go rouge, put MAGA Enabling Acts into the Constitution itself and that’s all she wrote. We turn into a Russia-style autocracy with camps and potentially American Killing fields.
I wish I was joking.
But we have to go through a dumb impeachment of Biden in January so Trump has a spring in his step heading into November 2024.
There are two things to keep an eye out for starting Election Day 2024 if Trump is re-elected — smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country and people leaving their state to states that better fit their personal politics.
If the first happens, then, lulz, we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. I predict as many as 1 million smug Twitter liberals with circle jerk podcasts could simply bounce between November 2024 and February 2025. Maybe I’m over estimating these numbers, but I do believe that there will be a large number of Twitter liberals who peace out because they have the means to escape the looming Trump autocracy.
Meanwhile, if there is a mad rush of Reds fleeing to Red States and Blues fleeing to Blue states then there is a chance that we’re going to have some sort of epic shitshow political crisis, the largest scene since the beginning of the Civil War. I think it’s more likely such a scenario would happen if Trump loses, but I suppose it’s possible that if Trump wins there might be something akin to a “Glorious Revolution” that would make people feel pretty insecure about their personal safety because of political violence.
And remember, any attempt at a Blue “Glorious Revolution” probably will do nothing more than prompt a secession crisis as Red states decide to leave the Union rather than tolerate any of the structural reforms that a Glorious Revolution would push through.
I guess what I’m saying is — we’re fucked.
The only scenario where there isn’t a “Fourth Turning” is if Biden wins and Trump goes peacefully back into the shadows. While possible, that’s…unlikely.
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