Tag: The Big Ugly

The Tyranny Of Trump’s Instability


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is talks big but often folds in a dramatic, unexpected fashion. He does this all the time. And, yet, faced with the very real possibility of criminal liability should he leave office, there’s a chance he’ll destroy the United States in order to prevent that from happening.

So, you just don’t know.

What makes Trump so difficult to predict is he’s such a combination of would-be autocrat combined with incompetence and malicious showmanship that you often assume the absolute worst from him. Then, he can’t follow through. Or, put another way — it’s similar to how voters assumed they were getting the guy from The Appearance when they were just getting an empty suit.

But there is the issue of Barr. Interior Minister Bill Barr, having successfully managed the media narrative of The Mueller Report, has every reason to believe he can do the same thing with the 2020 Election. And the more difficult doing so becomes, the more radical he and Trump are likely to become.

And, yet, as I said, Trump is both so incompetence and erratic that virtually anything is possible. It could be that Trump simply salts the earth on the way out. Or he quits and gets Pence to pardon him. Or he pardons himself. There is a huge spectrum of different worse case scenarios to choose from. And all of them, given the information available, would make sense as possibly happening.

All I know is, the next three or so months are going to be just like Trump — surreal and unpredictable.

Election 2020 Known Unknowns


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

How Tight Is It Going To Be?
On one hand, you have indications that we’re going to have a massive number of people voting, which would help Democrats in general. On the other hand, it’s possible that because of the Electoral College and the 48 – 48 split of the nation that even that won’t be enough to give us what we need: a massive blowout to such an extent that it makes it much more difficult for Trump to pull off A Very American Coup.

Russians Hacking Into Our Election Systems
I rant about this a lot, but I don’t, like, KNOW that this will happen. But Russia loves Trump so much that it makes sense that Trump removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany as a direct quid pro quo for the Russians hacking directly into our election systems. I could very well see Trump just barely winning Pennsylvania — and a few other states — and we’d just write it off to the 2016 effect of a split popular / Electoral College vote. We could simply never know what the Russians did. Maybe when AOC is let out of prison in 40 years we’d find out about it. But by that point, lulz.

Is Trump Too Incompetent & Lazy?
While Trump is an autocrat, he is a very lazy and incompetent autocrat. The thing that might cause him to overcome these basic aspects of his personality would be his abject fear of going to prison after leaving office. As such, it’s possible that using Barr he will stage A Very American Coup and never fucking leave office for any fucking reason. This is a very reason possibility — especially if there is any doubt on election night who won.

Are Americans Will To Risk Real World Things?
If TrumpBarr do stage A Very American Coup, is the average American willing to actually risk things that are important to them in the real world for the sake of the country? That’s probably the biggest known unknown. It could be that while there might be a bit of violence here and there, really all that would happen is a lot of angry Twitter threads.

October Surprises
Every day we get closer to the Election, the likelihood that something fucking bonkers is going to happen to upend the whole thing. I keep thinking it’s going to be a Hunter Biden Laptop Deepfake, but who knows. One thing is for sure — we’re already an autocratic managed democracy and for Trump to not think up some bullshit October Surprise would definitely not make any sense. So, it seems logical that things are going to turn on a dime and Trump is going to magically be in the lead again.

The Big Ugly
The weird thing about Trump is he literally keeps inciting violence and no one listens to him. The question is — is it possible that the moment it seems as though Trump is actually going to lose, will Right Wing nutjobs start to blow shit up in an effort to scare us into letting Trump stay in office? Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though an extra-political solution to Election 2020 is on the table if Trump loses by every other metric. It could be that the country convulses no matter who wins the election for any reason because we’re just too divided and it’s just our fate to have a revolution / civil war in 2020.

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.

The Metrics Of The Hunter Biden Deep Fake October Surprise


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let’s go through why it seems as though very, very soon a purported video (or whatever) of Hunter Biden engaged in some sort of illicit activity is probably going to pop out.

  1. Trump is a traitor
    Trump’s head is so far up Putin’s rectum that it seems logical that the Russians would do anything — anything — to keep that fucker in power. Trump is actively destroying the country and the Russians see Trump as sort of the anti-Gorbachev. Trump would rather destroy the United States than risk any personal criminal liability by not being president anymore. So the idea of him working hand-in-glove with the Russians to facilitate a deep fake Hunter Biden seems logical.
  2. Rudy
    Why go to the trouble of coming up with some bullshit “laptop” disinformation campaign if you’re not going to unlock its sinister second stage. House Trump is about as hysterical as you can get at this point in the political silly season and Rudy has been bouncing back and forth between the United States and the former Soviet Union playing spy. So, seems pretty obvious Something Bad is about to pop out and a deep fake of Hunter Biden is going to be it.
  3. Qanon
    This is just rebranded Protocols of the Elders of Zion which is an OG Russian active measure to (as I understand it) validate pogroms in the Russian Empire, so it seem as though the plan is something like this: Qanon –> Hunter Biden laptop –> Hunter Biden deep fake.

Add to this my continued belief that Trump will mysteriously win just like he did in 2016 by barely winning in some crucial swing states because the Russians hacked directly into our elections systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany and, well, lulz.

The fix is in.

At this point, the question is will Trump’s innate incompetence and tendency to self-own be enough to save the near-death Republic?

And, don’t forget, I’m of the opinion that even under the best of circumstances, we’re in for a surreal few months. We could see unprecedented political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon. We could see A Very American Coup (and counter coup.) Nothing is off the table.

Good luck.

The Big Ugly: What I Might Be Getting Wrong About Trump’s Coming ‘Very American Coup’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My hysterical, dystopian predictions are almost always wrong. And, yet, given that Trump is fucking bonkers and a caged rat at this point, I have a feeling I’m not going to be too far off — Trump is never leaving office for any reason because autocrats never “lose.”

But, for the sake of argument, let’s think about what I might be getting wrong. Is it possible Trump might actually be a normal human being and leave office should he lose the 2020 election?

First — no. This is never happening.

But, again, I’m not perfect. I keep getting things wrong. So, what could possibly happen that might cause Trump to actually not do A Very American Coup with the help his hatchet man Barr?

Well, I think one thing that would have to happen is the result be massive. Trump would really have to fucking lose in such a massive landslide that it was obvious he had lost the Mandate of Heaven. I just don’t see this happening because the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany.

And, yet, I don’t know that that is going to happen — even though all evidence suggests it will.

So, let’s assume for some weird reason Trump actually does, in fact, lose the election. Then what? I think TrumpBarr will do exactly what they would do, anyway — sue. They will sue any obstacle to them staying in power, even to the point of causing the country to implode (The Big Ugly.) The more difficult it is for them to stay in power, the more radical they will become. The only difference might be the context — if it’s a real blowout, it might be a teeny-tiny bit more difficult for SCOTUS to rule in his favor or Republicans to suck his cock. Lulz, who am I kidding. Of course, even if the country is about to fucking implode, SCOTUS will rule in Trump’s favor and Republicans will cling as tight to House Trump as they absolutely can. I wish I was wrong on that one. But I’m note. The Big Ugly would happen in that case, no matter what.

But am I being too dystopian? I don’t think so, but maybe? I guess if Trump actually does lose — and admits it — what he’ll do is go completely bonkers for three months. He will fire anyone he doesn’t like just out of spite. The lame duck Senate will approve any number of surreal nominations. Trump will pardon Jared’s dad, Flynn, and who knows, maybe himself.

The thing about Trump is he’s so unstable and unpredictable that I have a tendency to assume the absolute worst. It could be that Trump will just continue to be his usual bonkers self and any “salting the earth” will be in his usual half-assed incompetent fashion. That really is our best case scenario at this point.

Also of note is it’s not like Trump won’t still have a Twitter account and a golden Rolodex to flip through whenever he wants to cause mischief. He knows all our secrets and he’s going to be desperate for cash.

Or, put another way, even under the best of scenarios, we’re absolutely fucked as long as Trump is alive and in debt. Good luck, folks.

The Big Ugly: TrumpBarr Will Have To Be Physically Dragged From The White House If They Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The old Benjamin Wittes quip is Trump is “malevolence mitigated by incompetence.” Another saw is “autocrats never lose.” By every possible metric, it seems as though Trump, through Barr, is going to stay in power by any means necessary even if there is a Biden landslide.

TrumpBarr would rather destroy the whole country than have Trump risk criminal exposure once he is out of office. Or, put another way, the only way Trump is leaving office should he lose is not only will he salt the earth on his way out, he’s going to demand some sort of promise about not being prosecuted once he’s no longer president.

I would even suggest he might frogwalk Obama between November and January to drive the point across — if you think me indicting Obama was bad, just wait until you try to do it to ME.

The issue is — Trump is an avatar for some seriously fucked up issue in American society. He’s like political herpes. Now that we have him, he ain’t going anywhere. Or, at least, his influence in government isn’t going anywhere. I think Trump is literally going to stay in office for the rest of his life, but that may be overstating the issue.

It could be that we’re simply in A New Era and Trump will be like Reagan was — there was life before the Reagan Revolution and life after it. I’m not one of those people who thinks Republicans will run away from Trump. To the contrary, Trump will be the new heart and soul of the Republican Party. Everything will be relative to him, just like it used to be everything was relative to Reagan.

Or, put yet another way, while I keep hearing people talk about how “fragile” our democracy is, I think we’re no longer a democracy. We’re now, officially, an autocratic managed democracy and the only possible way we have some sort of House Trump Interregnum is how God-awful incompetence Trump is at being an autocrat.

As such, we might have a few years of respite from autocracy, but soon enough, a new autocrat will take power and that will be that. It will be Trumpism without Trump. And I still think Trump will be like a reverse Gorbachev. Instead of bringing freedom to a country, Trump will strangle it.

Though I will note that while I’m often wrong, something really big has to happen for Trump to simply never leave office. TrumpBarr will use the same media narrative management techniques they used with The Mueller Report. The more difficult is for them to do this, the more radical they will become to the point that it’s rather brazen that A Very American Coup is taking place.

In the end, we may have to go through what I call The Big Ugly. And there are no assurances that the Good Guys will win if that happens.

Our Coming Hunter Biden Laptop Deep Fake Debacle


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, that’s how Trump plans on winning. This mysterious laptop of Hunter Biden’s Republicans have discovered will have a video on it that will be released soon that makes every Qanon fucktard spooge their pants.

From Russia with love.

This is going to happen very, very soon. Probably in a few days.

We spend about a week debating as to how real it all is, but it serves the purpose of the Second Comey Letter and Trump “wins.” Soon enough, we learn it was a deep fake done by the Russians.

Add to this my continued belief that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German and, well, there you go.

Trump wins and our dystopian nightmare kicks into high gear. We leave NATO, form a direct alliance with Russia and politically we’re identical to Russia. People start to get snatched off the street and pushed out of windows. We have a solid 40 years of this before the dead hand of demographics finally makes House Trump’s rule untenable.

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, two facts are heading towards each other. On one hand, it definitely seems as though we may see unprecedented numbers of people vote in this election. On the other hand — autocrats never lose.

Add to this my personal belief that Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German, and you have the makings of a massive clusterfuck — The Big Ugly.

Or, put another way, come January 20th, 2021, Trump is getting sworn in for a second term, no matter what. Even if it means we have dueling swearing in ceremonies and the country implodes. Even if Trump loses in a landslide, he’s going to sue everything and everyone in the way of his victory and he will win 5-4 or 6-3 at SCOTUS.

This is going to happen even if a sizable chunk of the Republican Establishment publically tells Trump to cool it and to leave office.

It’s just not going to happen.

I say this because Trump knows he’s probably got a real risk of being indicted if he ever leaves office. And the Russians have him by the short ones, so he has every reason to destroy the country before leaving office. And he has Bill Barr to make sure all this troubles go away.

The more difficult it becomes for TrumpBarr to stay in power, the more radical they will become. We could very well have A Very American Coup before it’s over with to the point that it’s seen as something of a political 9/11 — not even The New York Times will be able to “both sides” this — they’re going to have to admit that a coup is taking place.

The question, of course, is what the reaction of the average person will be to this Very American Coup. There’s something of a spectrum in my opinion — either there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth on Twitter but nothing really happens i the real world, or we careening towards The Big Ugly of some sort of civil war / revolution.

Of course, there is the “Trump Salts The Earth” scenario where Trump, after quickly bringing the country to the edge of The Big Ugly abruptly gives up, but tries to destroy as much as possible on his way out. He fires people, he pardons people — including himself! Or he won’t leave office unless he can quit and get Pence to pardon him.

The darkest scenario is Trump holds up in the White House and just rants on Twitter all day and we have to physically remove him from the Oval Office while a mob of angry MAGA shitheads surround the building to defend the Dear Leader.

Various ‘Big Ugly’ Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’ve officially reached the point in the political silly season when all this data is getting thrown at you on a near-hourly basis and you have no idea what’s important.

So, as it stands, because of how badly 2016 hurt, I’m simply assuming that “autocrats never lose” is our future. I’m sitting back, waiting for the inevitable political 9/11 on the part of TrumpBarr. They will do this attack even if Biden wins by 10 points (or more) and the entire country outside of GOP-MAGA-Qanon wants TrumpBarr to leave office.

And they’ll win, for no other reason than we just don’t have it in us to go the South Korea route where we grind the country to a halt until TrumpBarr leaves office. And, remember, even if The New York Times says, “there’s a coup going on” that may not be enough to get conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to even tacitly agree with massive, rolling political protests against TrumpBarr.

We would have to literally be on the cusp of a hard Big Ugly — revolution / civil war — for #MoscowMitch to walk to the White House and suggest TrumpBarr leave office because, lulz, they lost the election. It could really get that bad. Nothing TrumpBarr is doing right now indicates they have any intention of leaving office for any reason, even if they lose in a landslide.

Now, I think the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany. If that happens — which I think it will 100% — and Trump mysteriously wins in exactly the same way he won in 2016, it will be interesting to see if we figure out what happened before or after the Electors vote.

I think the whole thing will be a lulz. Trump will “not lose” and we’ll leave NATO and make a direct alliance with Russia, Hungry, Rump England, and the Philippines. The bad guys will win, the dystopia will be here and we’ll have to wait about 40 years until the end hand of demographics makes House Trump’s control over the country untenable.

That’s what’s going to happen.

But, let’s daydream. Imagine there really is a blowout Biden Blue Wave. Then what?

Well, first, no matter what, Trump won’t concede. TrumpBarr will sue everythig and everyone in the courts. But if the country is on the cusp of The Big Ugly, it’s at least possible the courts choke this time and we don’t have a replay of 2000.

But another possibly — and I’ve seen this discussed elsewhere — is Trump “salts the earth” on his way out. He pardons everyone he can possibly pardon — including himself! He fires the FBI director and force-confirms some MAGA-Qanon lackey. He actively tries to destroy the country on the way out.

Another horrific possibly is he goes Hitler in the Bunker on us and simply won’t leave the White House no matter fucking what. He demands MAGA circle the White House and we have a huge standoff on the front lawn as we struggle to get him out safely..

One interesting thing is Trump keeps egging his supporters to fuck shit up and, to date, they haven’t taken him seriously. If he finally fucking snaps because he can’t simply sue his way into victory, then the long-feared Big Ugly might happen for the same reason the violence at the end of Do The Right Thing Happened — fuck you.

The point is –the conditions are there for The Big Ugly to start very, very, very soon. Like any moment. It could be a Oklahoma City type bombing somewhere. A false flag. Anything at any moment.

One thing that is curious is how many people are voting NOW. What does that mean for election day itself? Is it possible that so many people will have voted by election day that the day itself will be rather mundane until Trump simply won’t concede? (Or he “wins” mysteriously.)

November to January is going to suck, is all I know.

The Metrics Of ‘The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All signs point to Trump simply never leaving office, no matter what. I say this because of Bill Barr. Even if Trump loses in a massive landslide, Barr is going to be Trump’s hatchet man and make sure all Trump’s troubles go away. In the end, it all endsup at SCOTUS and Trump wins 5-4 or 6-3.

And, yet, it has to be noted that this isn’t going to happen in a political vacuum. This is not 2000. The reason why the Republicans were able to steal that election was the country wasn’t as polarized and it was something of a sucker punch. It took us years to process what happened and why.

While I absolutely believe at this point that TrumpBarr will “not lose” the 2020 election, there is at least small possibility that I’m wrong. In the end Trump’s incompetence will finally, at last be his downfall. But the nation will have to go through a traumatic experience to get rid of him.

Here’s the idea — it soon becomes apparent that TrumpBarr has lost “the mandate of heaven.” So much so that even Senate Republicans, sated by a huge tax cut and hundreds of young, hack MAGA judges might begin to distance themselves from The Dear Leader.

One metric to look at is Sen. Lindsey Graham. If Graham starts to make it clear that Trump should leave office because, lulz, he lost the election, then that’s a good indication that even though Trump is using the full weight of the U.S. Government to stay in power, that the political ground has shifted subtly beneath him.

But the biggest metric to look at his Trump himself. If Trump’s insanity and political criminality fuse — which they will — then it’s possible we enter a gotterdammerung situation where Trump, using Barr, sort of forces the issue. He forces EVERYONE to take a side on an existential level. So much so that the Republican Establishment itself begins to fragment.

I guess you could call this the “Very American Coup” scenario. In this situation, TrumpBarr’s attempt to “not lose” the election is nothing short of a political 9/11 attack. Everyone knows what’s going on. Everyone is on the same page. And it all boils down to if you’re a Trump “true believer” or not.

So, even though even Senate Republicans don’t want Trump to take everything to SCOTUS, he does anyway. He wins there and the country is so fucking enraged at what has happened, that the fucking bolts finally pop off and the United States implodes along the lines of the Soviet Union in 1991. But probably in a far more messy, violent manner — The Big Ugly.

It just seems like 2020 is it. This is the election where 50-odd years of macro trends all crest at the same moment and all of our nightmares and dystopian fears happen at the same time.

I honestly don’t know the endgame. I honestly don’t know if TrumpBarr wins or if such a brazen extra-political attempt to stay in power will be enough to get conservatives-who-are-not-MAGA to get woke or not. If we can’t get that crucial part of the electorate to finally show some backbone, then on a political level, at least, the United States in 2021 will be identical to Belarus in 2021.