Tag: The Big Ugly

My Current Nightmare Prediction For How Trump Wins


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me this is going to happen — record anti-Trump voting is equaled by Election Day voting by MAGA-Qanon. The race is extremely tight. So tight that Russian hacking into our election systems makes a big difference in key states.

Amy Coney Barrett votes repeatedly to narrow the scope of votes that will be counted and Trump wins.

That definitely seems to be what Republicans are thinking they can pull off as of right now. Autocrats — even incompetent ones like Trump — never lose.

Trump’s Coming Extra-Political Theft of The 2020 Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I continue to say, Joe Biden is, on a strictly political level, doing quite well. If this was any other election in the last 50 years or so, I would say one would be reasonably assured that Biden would win in something akin to a landside.

Unfortunately, Trump is an autocrat — if an incompetent one — and as such will never lose. Here are my current concerns as to how that “not losing” might happen.

  1. Foreign Hacking
    A lot of very powerful people all over the world are quite pleased with the shitshot that is the Trump Administration. As such, they have the means, motive and opportunity to hack directly into our election systems. Either we don’t find out and we just assume the polls were wrong again like in 2016 or we find out and it goes to SCOTUS and they decide any questions in favor of Trump.
  2. The Dead Hand of History
    TrumpBarr are not really acting like they intend to ever leave office for any reason. So, it definitely seems reasonable to believe that, well, they won’t. Whatever law they have to bend or twist, whatever norm they have to break — they will. They will do it in broad daylight and the entire edifice of the Republican Party will facilitate it.
  3. A Hunter Biden Deep Fake
    I have begun to hear a little bit of chatter about some sort of Hunter Biden sex tape within far Right Twitter. If a deep fake was to pop out, that’s how it would happen — we’d hear rumors about some sort of sex tape and then it would mysteriously pop out in such a way that its validity would still be up for debate on Election Day.
  4. Political Violence
    It seems very possible that MAGA-Qanon might flip the fuck out and start blowing shit up if they got the sense that Trump might not win a second term. This would serve as Trump’s Reichstag Fire, even though his own followers violence was the thing that gave him the cover to take “total control” via the Insurrection Act.
  5. Amy Coney Barrett
    The whole nomination and confirmation process associated with Barrett has the smell of coup to it. It definitely makes one believe that Republicans are so blinded by their craven need for power for power’s sake that once she gets on the bench and reverses the recent 4-4 vote at SCOTUS about mail-in ballots, that that will give TrumpBarr the self-confidence to attempt A Very American Coup even if Biden ostensibly wins in a landslide.
  6. A Very American Coup
    It definitely seems as though TrumpBarr see Amy Coney Barrett as their failsafe. Even if the Russians hack into our election systems, change votes and are “accidently on purpose” discovered doing so, TrumpBarr know that no matter what SCOTUS will vote in their favor if there’s any sort of dispute. Or, if all else fails, they can use any such debate to allow MAGA state legislatures name their own Electors — even though the Russians specifically fucked with our election systems to set such a situation up.

    Remember, the entire media industry is designed to create our reality and to assure Americans that they live in a free country. Even if TrumpBarr was extremely brazen with a coup, I have every reason to believe that CNN and The New York Times might acknowledge what was going on, but would do everything in their power to tell people to be passive and allow the coup to take place.

    As such, I think we’re fucked. Totally, completely fucked. The bad guys are going to win and we’re going to let them. We’re going to be no better than Putin’s Russia. People will get snatched off the street and pushed out of windows within months of Trump stealing the election. All signs point to this happening even if, on a strictly political level, Biden wins. It happened in 2000, and I have every reason to believe it will happen in 2020.

    Prove me wrong.

The Taking Of Trump Tower


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not advocating any of this. And, in all honesty, my predictive abilities have taken a big hit recently — I was absolutely sure a Hunter Biden deep fake was going to pop out on Friday and, lulz, no. (At least so far.)

But if you assume The Big Ugly is going to happen because, lulz, Republicans hate democracy, brown people and women, then, well, there’s one particular place that seems a prime spot for its beginning: Trump Tower in NYC.

If such a thing was to happen, it would likely happen in the context of a massive freakout by New Yorkers as it became obvious that their most hated native son was in the process of staging A Very American Coup. They would also likely storm the HQ of FOX News to get their point across. But what better way to put a hurting on House Trump than storm their personal version of Versaille. Now, I’m definitely not advocating this — real people would get hurt if an angry mob stormed Trump Tower.

This would be counter-productive for a number of reasons, chief among them being Trump would likely use the Insurrection Act to effectively put New York City under martial law.

The main issue is that the United States — otherwise the most stable and powerful nation in the world — is on the cusp of implosion because or politics is so absolutely fucked up that Republicans would rather destroy the country than give up power. Some of their behavior if you read about it in a history book would make you go, “Yep, that country was going to have a revolution.”

There are just so many known unknowns. All I know is you can’t have one of your major political parties acting like the Republican Party is right now without significant election-related instability.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. It would be a pleasant surprise if we had a self-evident Biden landslide and I can go back to working on my novel.

The Big Ugly: The Conditions Exist For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we lurch towards Election Day, it’s becoming ever more apparent than at least on the basis of attitude of the two sides the conditions for significant political violence exists. On one hand, the Republicans are looking towards Amy Coney Barrett to be their failsafe in case the election is close enough that anything goes to SCOTUS. On the other hand, Democrats are pumped that on a political level, Biden may be on the cusp of a landslide.

Republicans are so craven — and so blinded by ideology — that they aren’t even factoring in the consequences of their anti-democratic behavior should they manage to pull it off. All they care about is a Trump victory and fuck you. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where they get what they want: Trump wins, but that’s just the beginning of the crisis.

If Biden wins a massive landslide in the popular vote but because of the legal ratfucking of the Republican Party he doesn’t legally become president, we would be in uncharted territory.

Now, the fix to this problem is a Biden victory that is so enormous that it has some wiggle room to handle the very legal ratfucking I mentioned. We have to accept that Amy Coney Barrett is going to hand the election to Trump if that becomes an issue. The solution is for her not to be given the option.

Of course, if there is a Biden landslide, we would likely have to deal with significant political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who don’t see anyone but Trump as legitimate. Trump could pounce on such violence as something of a Reichstag Fire and assume the “total control” Roger Stone believes he should do, even if the violence was caused by his own supporters.

The point is — autocrats never lose. Never. I haven’t even mentioned the likelihood that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems to throw the election to Trump. Even if we discover this, it’s very likely the whole thing goes to SCOTUS…where Amy Coney Barrett will vote for Trump.

All in all, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. I don’t see how we get through the next few months without some sort of massive political violence to the extent that we see an enormous amount of domestic political refugees.

The only way that doesn’t happen is a massive Biden win combined with Trump simply giving up. He will likely salt the earth on the way out, however. He’s going to fire anyone he doesn’t like and pardon anyone he feels he needs to in order to save his sorry ass — including himself!



Our Coming Very American Coup: Amy Coney Barrett Is Trump’s SCOTUS Failsafe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more Amy Coney Barrett is crucial to Trump’s Very American Coup. She’s their failsafe. Even if Biden wins in a historic landslide, TrumpBarr will sue everything that stands in his way of staying in power. It goes to SCOTUS and Barrett is the deciding vote.

The end. Fuck you, American democracy.

Now, the issue is what happens next? American political history would suggest not a lot. There may be some isolated violence here and there, but in the end CNN and The New York Times will tell everyone to calm down, even though they admit that a coup has taken place.

Then, of course, Trump purges the media and all we have to watch is OANN. America will, on a political level, be identical to Russia and we have 40 years of House Trump until there’s some sort of popular revolt for no other reason than the Browning of America will be complete and Barron Trump’s hold on the country will become untenable.

While all of that sounds rather hysterical, as we grow closer to election day, I just don’t see how Trump doesn’t successfully pull of A Very American Coup. Even if the Russians mysteriously allow Biden to actually win in a landside, TrumpBarr — knowing Barrett is at SCOTUS — will plow full speed ahead towards their plans for a coup.

Americans just don’t have it in them to do what is necessary to save American Democracy. Good luck.

The Dead Hand Of History Suggests Either Trump ‘Doesn’t Lose’ Or The Country Implodes After The Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The weird thing about the modern era, is I’ve read enough history books to know some sense of how they would describe what’s going on around us — our Republic is becoming an empire. It definitely seems as though one scenario would the United States becomes a semi-monarchial autocratic state with a House Trump that rules the country (poorly) until the Browning of America makes their rule untenable.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. Trump, with the help of the Russians hacking directly into our election systems, will “not lose.” He strangles any semblance of liberal democracy in the United States and whatever’s left is allowed to exist because it’s not a threat. In fits and starts over the next two year or so, Trump accelerates our drive towards autocracy and that’s that. That definitely seems to be the path we’re on right now.

What’s worse, if the Russians somehow allow Biden to win, then we face a different problem — MAGA-Qanon could very well begin to blow shit up and actually start killing people (like me!) out of spite in support of The Dear Leader. They try to sucker punch the center-Left, deliver a knock-out blow. Given that they will have the full authority of the Trump regime on their side, it definitely seems as though they will get away with it.

Of course, Trump is such an incompetent moron, that there’s at least a small chance that even with the legal might of Interior Secretary Bill Barr at his disposal, he’s so ham-handed and brazen in his Very American Coup that the country implodes for no other reason than Trump finally jiggles American self-perception enough that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA finally get woke. That really seems like a liberal fever dream at this point, but who knows.

The 2020 election definitely has a 1860 vibe to it, is all I gotta say. It feels as though the nation is at a crossroads and because MAGA is so insane, if they don’t get what they want, it seems reasonable to assume they’re going to start killing people (like me!) The question, of course, is what our reaction to such behavior will be.

I honestly don’t know.

The New Normal


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Our absolute best case scenario at this point is Trump will be a one term president who has a political legacy equal to the Reagan Revolution. There will be a new normal where the Trump Deep State actively attempts to destroy the administration of any Democrat that doesn’t toe the MAGA line.

That’s the best case scenario.

I say that because the dead hand of history would suggest that Trump isn’t going anywhere for any reason. Trump is actively working to turn the United States into an autocrat state and it would make absolutely no sense for him to allow himself to “lose” for any reason.

Add to this how the Russians are very likely to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from German and it will be the biggest shock of my adult life if Trump ever leaves office for any reason.

Even if the Russians for some reason allow a Biden landslide, the damage Trump has done to the administration of government is so horrific that I find it difficult to imagine that things are going to just snap back to “normal.” Trump is our political herpes.

Or, put another way, the only upside to Trump’s tyranny is a lot of macro pressure on our political system has been eased because craven Republicans go two things they lusted after — young hack MAGA judges and a gratuitous tax cut for plutocrats that punishes Blue States. Republicans still hate democracy because they hate the Browning of America and the rise of women as a cultural and economic force, but if the Russians don’t do what I expect and Trump loses, at least they got there two big goals.

As their base grows smaller and more angry, they will use their control of the Judiciary and Trump’s new Deep State to create the conditions for them to get back power as quickly as possible. Every time they get power, it will grow a quantum leap more difficult to get them out of power. In the end, it will become completely impossible and at some point the country implodes and it’s every man for himself.

That implosion may happen in 2020, or it may happen between now, and, say, 2028. But it is going to happen for no other reason than Republicans have learned a lot from Trump and they will re-calibrate according to his weaknesses. If the implosion doesn’t happen, it will be because the next time they get to put an autocrat in power, he will be far more focused and organized.

But I still think everything is moot. Trump is never leaving office. Most Americans aren’t willing to risk their “lives and scared honor” in the real world to do anything about it.

So, soon enough, the United States will leave NATO, form some sort of new alliance with a number of autocratic states across the world and begin snatching people off the street and pushing them out of windows. This is going to happen, it’s just a matter of how long it takes.

If it doesn’t happen, it will be because people get woke and there’s a national implosion. I’m not advocating that. I don’t want that. But the macro trends indicate that if we don’t get woke on a mass level that Republicans are hell bent on turning us into an autocratic, American version of apartheid South Africa.

The Only Way To Save The Republic Is A Biden Landslide


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a very good chance that mysteriously Trump will win the electoral college in exactly the same way he did in 2016. We will all be in shock. We will write it off to all the boat parades or the “shy Trump voter” or whatever. At some point — maybe never — we will learn, however, that the Russians fucked with our election systems and threw election to Trump.

The darkest scenario, of course, is we will learn this happened before the Electors Vote, TrumpBarr lulz it and fight the issue in the courts and Trump STILL “wins” the election because of a 6-3 (5-4?) vote at SCOTUS. In fact, that definitely seems to be the failsafe for Republicans at this point. This are so rabid in their desire to win the election that they are completely oblivious to the political consequences of such behavior that it’s definitely the setup for The Big Ugly of civil war or revolution.

But, even without Russian help, if the election is anywhere close, we’re going to have not a Brooks Brothers Riot, but a Brooks Brothers War. There could be real, unprecedented political violence across the country as it becomes clear that TrumpBarr intends A Very American Coup. They already are suing everything that moves before the election, you can only assume that if they believe they have any — ANY — shot of stealing the election through extra-political means, they will pull that particular trigger.

So, really, the only way we keep the Republic is if somehow the Russians don’t do what I assume they’re going to do and Biden wins in such a massive landslide that it at least grows more difficult for TrumpBarr to pull of A Very American Coup — even though, obviously, they will try anyway.

I just don’t see how the post-election period isn’t one of unprecedented instability and even violence if Biden doesn’t win in a massive landslide. The Republican party simply doesn’t see democracy as valid if it isn’t helping them obtain or maintain power, so, lulz.

‘A Very American Coup:’ Russian Hacking, SCOTUS & A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the conditions are there for a truly nightmarish scenario. Imagine this happens — Trump just barely wins / loses Pennsylvania and or Florida. It’s so close that people begin to wonder how this is possible. Soon enough, we learn that the Russians fucked with our election systems.

Now, logically, one would say, we would figure out who really won — Biden — and then the Electors would vote for him.

But, no, what might happen is this is such a massive clusterfuck that it goes to SCOTUS and Trump wins 6-3 there. This, even though it’s obvious that the Russians were working hand-in-glove with the Trump Campaign to pull this off. I keep saying this would be because of a quid pro quo to remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany, but, lulz.

Of all the nightmare scenarios I’ve come up with, this has got to be the worst. Imagine if the very same thing that allowed Trump to win in 2016 was taken to the next level in the sense that not only did we all know that Trump won with Russian help, but SCOTUS aided and abetted this traitorous plot.

If that didn’t cause significant political violence, I don’t know what would. The country would implode and then a civil war / revolution would happen. Or, at least, we would come the closest we’ve come since the original civil war. Trump would use the violence as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act and assume the “total control” that Roger Stone suggested.

The only reason why I believe this is possible is Russia wants to destroy the United States and if they’re not going to shoot their shot in 2020, when are they going to? So, it makes sense that they would pull the trigger on their ability to fuck directly with our election systems. All the conditions are there for them to do just that. Trump is a Russian agent. The entire Republican edifice is complicit in this.

I don’t want any violence, but elections are a game of expectations. If it becomes clear that Biden won on a strictly political level and yet our tyrannical moron autocrat wins not only because the Russians fucked with our election systems but SCOTUS abided by this act, then, well, all bets are off.

But, who knows, it’s possible we’ll just get a lot of angry Tik-Tok videos if this nightmare scenario happened. Things would have to get pretty bad for The New York Times to admit that, yes, in fact, a coup was taking place.

‘A Very American Coup’ Would Not Happen In A Political Vacuum


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s very easy to map out — especially in Pennsylvania — the makings of “A Very American Coup.” Because of the issue of “intermingling” of votes that SCOTUS might rule ex post facto illegal, there’s a chance that the fucking asshole MAGA Pennsylvania legislature might name their own electors in a giant fuck you to what’s left of American democracy.

Now, let’s put that in some context.

First, on a strictly political level, there are definitely rumbles of a Reagan Revolution-sized blowout for Biden. A total rejection of Trump, MAGA and Qanon. But that’s strictly the political metric. We’re dealing with an insane, rabid Mad King Trump who knows he might face personal criminal liability if he actually leaves office. As such, there’s a decent chance that his removal of 1/3 of our troops from Germany wasn’t just one of his asshole moves because he doesn’t like Angela Merkel. It could be that Trump did that specifically to ensure that the Russians will hack directly into our election systems so Trump wins. And, really, it could be they don’t even have to make him “win” so much as make the election appear so close in places like — you guessed it — Pennsylvania that the whole Very American Coup can take place.

I’m the first to admit how hyperbolic, paranoid and hysterical that all sounds. But it is something we have to consider — TrumpBarr is going to attempt a coup. An actual, honest-to-God coup in the United States in 2020. And with an assist from the Russians, no less!

What is so annoying — and troubling — about this particular nightmare scenario is there’s known endgame. I would like to think that all those lotte swilling soyboys in hipster coffee shops might sit up and take notice at such an brazen attack on our system of government, but, lulz, who knows. It’s possible they’ll stop smelling their own farts just long enough to do mean Tik-Tok video about it all and then go back to whatever it is they do.

Or, put another way, if TrumpBarr does attempt A Very American Coup, people are going to have to risk things that are important to them in the real world. People might get hurt. Careers ruined. Families destroyed. Real, honest to go real world adult stuff that can’t be fixed by a bunch of celebrities singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” poorly.

I honestly can’t give you an answer as to what might happen. It’s possible it would be simply an extreme version of 2000. Instead of a Brooks Brothers Riot, there is actual rolling political violence on the far Left and far Right while the middle simply wants it all to go away. Which, of course, would allow TrumpBarr to use the Insurrection Act to do just that.

The issue we have to grapple with is — if the only way we can possibly save 240 years of democratic tradition in the United States is a massive, self-evident landslide for Biden, we got some serious, serious existential problems in our country. Under the absolute best case scenario, we’re stuck with hundreds of young hack MAGA judges and a bankrupt treasury because of craven taxcut by Republicans.

Even if we physically remove Trump from the White House– which is debatable, no matter what — we will have a lingering Trump Deep State that is going to do everything in its power to destroy the Biden Administration. All of the systemic political rot that produced Trump will still be there. We’re going to be fucked for a generation.

And, lying in wait will be about a dozen would-be actual autocratic presidents chomping at the bit to do everything the people who voted for Trump in 2016 thought he was going to do.

Or, put another way, the only way we punt the crisis of Trumpism is a historic Biden landslide. But it would just be a punt. And, in all honesty, such a landslide might be the very thing that causes MAGA-Qanon to finally freak out and start blowing shit up. Things really are that bad in America right now.

We have some deep seated, existential problems in our political system that are intractable. I have no idea how they’re going to be solved.