Editor’s Note: I’m not advocating anything. I’m just frustrated and sometimes I write provocative things generated from that frustration.
If Tyrant Trump freaks out we all may be antifa in 2025. Something that has really been weighing on my mind of late is — how bad, exactly, will things have to get before some direct action concepts that would otherwise NEVER HAPPEN suddenly become viable? Remember, none of the fascist dreams that Tyrant Trump will happen in a vacuum. If Trump and his goons literally begin to snatch people off the street — or drive them out of the country — there is going to be some sort of reaction on the part of the population.
Or will there? Is it possible that as long as the economy is going well and 1 million smug Twitter liberals with their circle jerk podcasts leave the country that….lulz? Even if we literally descend into tyranny of autocratic rule that…no one will care? There might be some riots or protests here or there, but if Tyrant Trump has scared the shit out of the broadcasts networks…no one will know about it?
Of course, Tyrant Trump thinks that all of his problems will be solved by invoking the Insurrection Act. This is very dumb and naive. That’s just not how this works, it’s not how any of this works.
I’ve read up on how the Nazis consolidated power in early 1933 and the crucial thing they had that Tyrant Trump won’t have is a paramilitary group. The U.S. Military is simply NOT the Nazi SA. On an institutional basis, the U.S. Military simply isn’t interested in being a tyrant’s bitch. It may slow walk any knocking of heads if Trump causes mass riots across the country, or, if there was a Women’s Strike or General Strike, they might even just stand down and wait for things to play out.
Who knows. Given the absence of a SA-like paramilitary group, things get really murky in early 2025 really quick. Even if Trump does everything in his power to corrupt the adminstration of civilian rule over the U.S. Military if Tyrant Trump does all the batshit insane things he wants to do…yikes. Things could get rather bonkers rather quick.
My fear is that a second Trump term would cause first a Glorious American Revolution….then a Secession Crisis as Reds balk at all the structural political reforms that Blues will want to push through.
The whole thing would be a clusterfuck. I don’t want it to happen, but I am gravely concerned that we’re just not prepared for what may happen in the United States starting in late 2024, early 2025.
Ok. There’s a lot to unpack here. It seems as though malignant ding-dong Trump and his goons MAY have made a pretty big strategic error in their plans to turn the United States into an autocracy starting in late January 2025. As I’ve written before, they assume that through sheer force of will they can corrupt the administration of justice and of the executive and turn America into a Hungary-style managed democracy without any problems.
They seem to think that as long as they have the Insurrection Act in their back pocket that everything else will be unicorns and rainbow farts for their autocratic dreams. That may be so….but I have some quibbles.
The ironic thing is just as liberals seem to think that someone is to swoop in and save us from Trump if they just tweet harder, so, too, do MAGA fascists believe that invocation of the Insurrection Act is some sort of fascist fairy dust. This, despite the U.S. Military being loathed to get involved any political issues fights and the United States being a diverse, decentralized country with a huge population and a long tradition of democracy.
So….lulz?
Yes, there is a lot of low hanging fruit for Trump in the first few days of his tyrannically second administration. He can arrest a lot of people he doesn’t like — or drive them out of the country. He can fire 100,000 civil servants, turn Voice of America into his propaganda organ, pull the US out of NATO and our troops out of Korea and Japan.
BUT…..none of this will happen in a vacuum.
And, as such, if there is some sort of massive revolt against dingus Trump for these tyrannical moves by the population…the Insurrection Act can only do so much. There is a key thing that Trump is missing — he has no paramilitary group to “forcefully suggest” to people that they shut up and go along with the America First agenda….and if they don’t, they end up in a camp.
There are two things to consider at this point.
One is, clearly while Trump is weaponizing the existing ICE infrastructure to round up 10 million(!) undocumented people in the US….he could probably use that same weaponization to turn ICE agents into something akin to the SA. So, I could see Trump passing a HUGE FUCKING BILL that would enlarge the ranks of ICE Agents to an astonishing level. They would serve the purpose of the Nazi SA in the first 100 days of Hitler’s consolidation of power in early 1933.
Or, Trump could go the more direct route and somehow organize an actual MAGA SA made up of consolidated group of Patriot Front, Proud Boys and Oath Keepers who would be his goons as the US lurched towards a Nazi-style autocracy.
BUT….This, too, would NOT happen in a vacuum. There would be some lag time between when all hell broke loose in the US because Trump went full tyrant and the time where he would have a 500,000 goons on the streets to knock heads. That would give anti-fascist forces a window of opportunity. Things like a Woman’s Strike or a General Strike with specific anti-fascist demands might be enough to convince the U.S. Military to at least stand down, if not actively join anti-fascist forces. In a sense, we would all be antifa at that point.
Remember, however, all of this would be happening in the context of mass chaos in the United States. There would be no assurance that any Blue Glorious Revolution would work — it could endup like what happened in Turkey and only make the autocrat more powerful by failing. And even if it was successful, it’s very possible that it would only cause a Secession Crisis as Red States — probably starting with Texas — would leave the Union rather than accept any sort of reforms that they knew would hurt the fascist MAGA agenda.
I don’t think the fucking nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter realize how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected. We would be going to the show, folks. This would be it.
America would either turn into a Russian-style autocratic state or we would somehow found a Third Republic.
There are two things to keep an eye out for starting Election Day 2024 if Trump is re-elected — smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country and people leaving their state to states that better fit their personal politics.
If the first happens, then, lulz, we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. I predict as many as 1 million smug Twitter liberals with circle jerk podcasts could simply bounce between November 2024 and February 2025. Maybe I’m over estimating these numbers, but I do believe that there will be a large number of Twitter liberals who peace out because they have the means to escape the looming Trump autocracy.
Meanwhile, if there is a mad rush of Reds fleeing to Red States and Blues fleeing to Blue states then there is a chance that we’re going to have some sort of epic shitshow political crisis, the largest scene since the beginning of the Civil War. I think it’s more likely such a scenario would happen if Trump loses, but I suppose it’s possible that if Trump wins there might be something akin to a “Glorious Revolution” that would make people feel pretty insecure about their personal safety because of political violence.
And remember, any attempt at a Blue “Glorious Revolution” probably will do nothing more than prompt a secession crisis as Red states decide to leave the Union rather than tolerate any of the structural reforms that a Glorious Revolution would push through.
I guess what I’m saying is — we’re fucked.
The only scenario where there isn’t a “Fourth Turning” is if Biden wins and Trump goes peacefully back into the shadows. While possible, that’s…unlikely.
One of the more fucked up situations in modern politics is the situation with the fucking MAGA Nazis and Jewish people. What the fuck is up with that? MAGA is clearly careening towards some sort of American Nazism but because of a quirk of Trump’s personal life that trend is hampered.
And that doesn’t even begin to address how fucked it is that Stephen Miller is Jewish and yet he clearly wants to be MAGA’s Joseph Goebbels — he even looks like him! So, in a sense Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Stephen Miller are the canaries in coalmine.
Most likely what will happen is Trump gets re-elected, goes full tyrant and it’s not until his demise at some point in the future that the more Nazi elements of MAGA finally begin to bubble up to the surface.
But that doesn’t address other issues. Once we become an antisemitic autocratic MAGA Nazi state, how will that influence our relationship to Israel? It’s all very curious and difficult to game out. Yet I do believe that it is inevitable that once we’re a MAGA Nazi state that because form follows function that while the camps will at first be opened for undocumented people, soon enough, Jews — and freaky weirdos like me — will end up there, too.
It is still possible that Trump will lose in 2024 and simply slip into the darkness. But at the moment he has a 50 / 50 chance of winning. As such, we have to take the possibility that Trump will get a second term and be given the opportunity to go full tyrant.
And it’s happening in broad daylight. Trump is telegraphing to all of us exactly what he plans to do once he has the opportunity. What will be interesting to see is what the reaction will be on the part of not just the general population, but the U.S. Military.
In fact, both Agenda47 and Project 2025 both rely on the assumption that people will meekly accept Tyrant Trump corrupting the administration of law and justice in his second term. But what if the populace reacts dramatically to Tyrant Trump at the same time the U.S. Military balks at being Tyrant Trump’s goons?
The key element that Trump and his ilk miss is they don’t have an SA. They don’t have a paramilitary group to knock heads. They think they can use the U.S. Military to serve that purpose by using the Insurrection Act. I have my doubts, however.
So it’s possible that Tyrant Trump might be deposed by the U.S. Military, probably under the guise that he’s not supposed to be POTUS in the first place because of the 14th Amendment.
And, yet, I suppose because form follows function, either ICE is weaponized into some sort of SS or Tyrant Trump very soon — within his first 100 days — organizes some sort of national SA-like organization that would knock heads as he consolidates power.
I’m very worried because I know that it will be people like me who will find myself having my head bashed in by ICE or some sort of MAGA-nationalized Patriot Front.
Given that the Project 2025 conspiracy wants to corrupt the administration of justice and levers of power like the fucking Nazis in 1933, it makes you wonder if we should expect the MAGA Youth being organized.
The MAGA Youth would be a national youth organization meant to indoctrinate young impressionable children into the principles of America First. The only question I have is how soon will Tyrant Trump being the process of organizing the MAGA Youth.
There are some obstacles. America is a huge, diverse and decentralized nation — especially in regards to education — so some sort of state sponsored Hitler Youth-like organization would be a bit difficult to implement. But not impossible, especially, if, lulz, Tyrant Trump goes full tyrant and does whatever the fuck he wants to do because Project 2025 has so corrupted the levers of power that he can be a tyrannical dictator.
But as I’ve written before, Project 2025 will not happen in a political vacuum. It is a fucking testament to how fucking dumb Trump is that EVERYONE KNOWS that if he gets a second term, he’s going to strangle what’s left of American Democracy and turn us into a white Christian ethnostate. His second term will be based on just on revenge, but on making America a nation of blood and soil.
So, if Trump tries to create Trump Tykes or whatever, the 60% of the population that hates MAGA — like me — are going to flip the fuck out. And, as I keep saying, the real wild card is the U.S. Military. I just can’t see them being willing to be MAGA goons, no matter how much Project 2025 believes Tyrant Trump can fix all his problems by simply waving his hand and using the magic pixie dust of the Insurrection Act.
Given the legalistic nature of the autocracy that MAGA Nazis envision once Tyrant Trump is in power again, it seem clear that the existing ICE infrastructure is ripe for weaponization. If that happened, then I think ICE would become equivalent to the Nazi gestapo — or maybe even the SS if things got dark enough.
So, what might happen is, Trump becomes president. He has a MAGA controlled Congress. When MAGA isn’t passing legislation outlawing abortion and non fault divorce, I could see some sort of legislation dramatically re-defining the purpose and goals of ICE.
It would happen with a lot of smoke and mirrors, but the point would be to give Tyrant Trump a secret police he could use to bash heads. As I understand it, there is a “extended boarder area” that extends far past the actual border that ICE might use to “check the papers” of people randomly. If it turned out they wrote on their blog what a fucking small dicked cocksucker Tyrant Trump is, they get scooped up and thrown into an already-existent ICE camp.
As an aside, I am curious as to when the MAGA Youth and MAGA SA will come into existence. I’m sure it will be within the first 100 days of Tyrant Trump’s return to office, but those are 100 days that could give us anti-MAGA Poors time to realize what’s up and organize some sort of national collective action.
Or not. Most of the people who would organize such a thing will have already fled the country for Europe and beyond by that point. Lulz.
I suspect the lesson that MAGA Nazis will learn from their rebuke last night at the polls when it comes to abortion rights will not be to moderate to win elections, but to hasten the end of American democracy. In other words, they are so consumed with their moral objection to women having medical agency, that they will simply bide their time until they can abolish the Senate filibuster and pass a national fetal personhood bill.
And that’s probably the the best case scenario, all things considered. The worst case scenario would be MAGA Nazis involved in Project 2025 figure out some way to use extralegal methods to outlaw abortion, even if its still legal. But for that to happen, they the ranks of The Patriot Front would have to swell significantly.
I continue to think about how there is a gaping hole in the MAGA Nazi Project 2025 plan. They really think that brazenly corruption of both the law and the administration of the executive will be enough to browbeat the 60% of the American Population that still believes in the Second Republic.
Project 2025 people seem to have a childlike belief that whatever reaction they get from the populace from their tyranny they can fix using the Insurrection Act. Those hateful ding-dongs don’t have what the Nazis had in 1933: the SA. If anything gives me hope that maybe we can fight back against the MAGA Nazis is that lack of a big MAGA Nazi paramilitary arm.
I suppose that particular flaw in Project 2025 could be fixed — they still have a year, after all. And I suppose their may be some secret element of Project 2025 involving making a direct link between MAGA Nazi tyranny and the use of The Patriot Front to knock heads.
But even if they were going to do that in early 2025, there would be some lag time between when people began to riot in the streets of Blue States, the U.S. Military balking at crushing them and the establishment of a direct link between Tyrant Trump’s regime and The Patriot Front.
As chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatbotGPT grow more and more mainstream, there will be a growing tendency by the average person to assume whatever answer it generates is “objective truth.” People are going to treat it like praying to a god who just happens to give them a direct answer.
The problem is going to be that by definition, any statement of fact that doesn’t align with this or that person’s personal views will be seen as “bias.” So, on one side, MAGA Nazi cocksuckers will grow enraged if the answers the get are what the perceive to be “woke,” while center-Left people will be equally enraged if their chatbot shoots up answers that they perceive to be racist or misogynistic.
Under normal circumstances, when our politics functioned, there would be debate back and forth as to how to deal with this. Maybe, if it became that big a problem, the government might pass legislation regulating this particular element of chatbot technology.
But, lulz, that’s just not going to happen. All the techniques that MAGA Nazis have used in the past to make polite debate impossible, they will use to force the issue of “what is objective truth for a chatbot?” Either they win and we all get MAGA-approved “objective truth” or they win when a new chatbot designed specifically for them is designed and, lulz, yet another element of society is siloed into Red and Blue.
I still think there is a chance that a war will be fought over chatbot and AGI bias. And it could be a world war. The moment we have a setup where there is a battle between us (Humans) and THEM (AGI) anything is possible. Some pretty strange things could happen because once the nation-state isn’t as important as your views on our new AGI overlord, the civilization itself may be at risk of collapse.
I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds. But we have to start taking these things seriously. If there was some way for us to figure out the gray areas of “objective truth” in the context of politics, then there might be a chance that we might see us peacefully and gracefully transition into a post-chatbot, post-AGI world.
But Americans can barely agree on what color the sky is. So, we’re fucked. As I’ve said before, I’m concerned that given there might be a recession in 2023, that by 2024 we will face a perfect storm — a Singularity, a lingering recession and a massive political crisis surrounding the 2024 election.
The one thing that I can’t figure out is what Blues will do between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that they face the existential choice of bending a knee to fascist MAGA autocracy or they simply leave the Union at the state level like what happened with slave states in 1860 – 1861.
Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war, starting around late 2024, early 2025.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
We’re too far out to game out what will happen, but there are a number of different options. One is, nothing happens other than a lot of wealthy liberals flee the country — maybe 1 million or more — and they all start doing their “Resistance” podcasts in the south of France.
At the moment, that seems the most logical outcome. American democracy ends not with a bang, but with a lot of one way tickets out of the country by people who are wearing MeUndies.
So, it seems safe to say that if there is any secessionist crisis in late 2024, early 2025, it’s going to be because there is a popular groundswell of support all across Blue America for that to happen. And if that happens, then….what? I don’t know. The farthest I can get in this wargaming is maybe a summit of Blue governors is held somewhere….and then….what? Is that when they agree to hold the Secessionist Conventions?
Things quickly grow murky. If Blue States begin to leave the Union, what does the outgoing Biden Administration do? What happens with the U.S. Military? What do they do in the face of such a crisis? Do they simply follow the orders of our new MAGA fascist overlords to crush the secession or do they step in and overthrow civilian rule long enough for the two sides to cool it?
I just don’t know.
But what I do know is something’s gotta give. We can’t keep punting these existential problems down the road anymore. MAGA is so politically ascendant that, by definition, if they have the power to turn us into an autocracy, they will. The only question is, will we endup being like Hungary and Turkey or will we be closer to Russia? Or, even, God forbid, Nazi Germany?
Again, I just don’t know.
And I think this could be one of those things where we won’t know until it happens one way or another. Remember — the first signs of violence will come from coups and counter coups in swing states that really don’t know if they’re a Blue or Red state to the point of leaving or staying in the Union.
For instance, states like Virginia are really two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. And if Virginia was forced to pick a side, it would collapse, probably with there be a coup, then counter coup as each side tied to force the state to go one way or another. Virginia would definitely be a flash point in any National Divorce. We’re talking Yugoslavia levels of clusterfuck.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
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