Tag: Second American Revolution

The Big Ugly: American Balkanization, Canada & Reshaping North America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate it when I accidently slip into giving our dystopian future some sort of all’s well that ends well narrative like some sort of sanguin liberal-progressive Turner Diaries. With the Turner Diaries it was — as I understand it — a far Right fever dream that involved a race war.

With my narrative, it’s The Big Ugly happens but in the end, my liberal-progressive dreams come true because we found a new nation based on the ideals of California.

But that’s really me stroking one out to something that may not happen.

It may be that when The Big Ugly happens, the United States — if it doesn’t become a full-blown autocracy — simply implodes. A form of balkanization happens in the US. And that’s it. There’s no more United States. California successfully leaves the Union and the rest of the Blue States are under the MAGA-Federal jackboot via the Insurrection Act.

And that will be that.

I guess the point of that is The Big Ugly is going to suck should it happen.

Another thing is — if The Big Ugly happens, I just don’t see any way Canada doesn’t get drawn into it. And it won’t be some sort of liberal-progressive circle jerk where Blue States form the United States of Canada with Canada, either. Things may get violent. Canadian worst nightmares about Americans coming after their “resources” may come true.

Or, at least, the entire political map of North American may change in a rather sudden, dramatic fashion. Some sort of force-union between some Blue States and Canada might happen. Or MAGA-USA invades Canada because it meddles in TrumpBarr’s attempts to turn us into Putin’s America.

What I’m saying is — the next four months could really, really fucking suck. A lot of people may die tragic, needless deaths simply because fucking Trump is a demagogic moron who is afraid to go to jail.

I just want a liberal democracy. That should not be so controversal.

The Glorious American Revolution Of 2021



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the big, new U.S. Grant biography and it’s really good. It’s extremely timely on a number of levels. It definitely feels like Something Big is about to happen in the United States just like in the late 1850s for no other reason than two absolutes are careening towards each other — Barr is never going to let Trump lose and it definitely looks as though (at the moment) that’s exactly what’s going to happen to Trump on a political level.

So, that’s the setup for Something Big in what is, in real terms, a matter of days.If there is some sort of Soviet Union August 1991 event in the United States, it’s likely to happen because of some sort of extra-political 9/11 event. Or, put another way, some sort of miscalculation on the part of Barr. It might not even be a miscalculation — given what he has available, the idea that through sheer media manipulation and fucking with the law and norms that he really can hand Mad King Trump his ill-gotten second term.

The reason why things might blow up in TrumpBarr’s face is the average person sees what’s going on for what it is — a coup — then all bets are off. And, as I keep saying, the key type of person to think about it the “conservative-but-not-MAGA” person. If you can somehow, someway, get them to stop thinking about “cancel culture” long enough to notice the fucking coup going on around them, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to stop it.

If that type of person joins with the traditional center-Left opposition to Trump, the whole country comes to a grinding halt. At that point, either there’s a civil war, a revolution or both. The conservative-but-not-MAGA person is pretty much the bedrock of the American political system. If they feel TrumpBarr has forced the issue and they’ve lost “The Mandate of Heaven” then the United States — in its present form — could very well go the way of the Soviet Union in late 1991.

One way of doing it.

I’m not joking.

Let’s layout why this is. The big thing that’s different about the United States in 2020 and the Soviet Union in 1991 is economic — the United States’ fundamentals are fine. What we have is a fucking insane political problem where fucking fascists like TrumpBarr use the resentment of rural areas to tell secular metropolitan areas what to do.

The most surreal aspect of all of this — at least to me — is fucking cocksucker MAGA people hating on the media. Oh, come on you shitheads. You fucking morons. You keep talking about “cancel culture” when such a culture didn’t exactly stop Trump from becoming president, now did it?

I still think if you’re a MAGA fucktard you’re a fucking idiot if you want a civil war. You. Are. A. Fucking. Moron. You’re getting everything through what’s left of politics. Why would you want to turn things existential and risk turing those soyboys you think so little of into Rambo?

Who will play the part of these guys?

What one might compare the coming instability in the United States to is England’s Glorious Revolution. Their ruler lost the Mandate of Heaven, so he was replaced. So, in a sense, any “revolution” in the United States would be a personal revolt against TrumpBarr.

I really hate that my fucking novel may become moot if any of my dire predictions become a reality. I really like this novel. It’s a really great idea. I am also unhappy that given my personal skillset and my natural inclination to race towards danger, not away from it, that fate my put me in some pretty surreal situations sooner rather than later.

Though, with my luck, I’ll probably get murdered by some crazed MAGA person on the first day of an revolution or civil war. Ugh.

Our Coming Political 9/11


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the purposes of the media is to help construct reality. They make it so there’s an ebb and flow to life. It’s when something so jarring, so astonishing happens that they can’t do their job of making us just accept things that you have a crisis on your hands.

Two things are true right now: Biden is doing well politically. Trump is going to use extra-political means to “win” the election.

So, as such, the question is — are we careening towards a “political 9/11” in which CNN’s Anderson Cooper has to look at us and say, “For the first, time, the United States is in the midst of an attempted coup.”

It will really get that bad. Trump and Barr are going to try to steal the election through extra-political means post election no matter what. Even if Biden somehow wins the popular vote by a landslide, Barr is going to use the full weight of the United States to prevent Biden from actually taking office.

If you throw in batshit insane MAGA-Qanon people running around blowing shit up and murdering people in cold blood for political reasons, well, you got the beginning of a civil war or a revolution. Something bad, to say the least.

So, I would suggest you buckle up. Get ready like you did for COVID19. We’re either going to turn into a Russian-style managed democracy or there’s going to be a civil war – revolution. There’s no middle ground, tragically.

American Implosion 2021: Is Texas ‘American’ or ‘Southern’ or ‘Texan?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we careen towards a possible implosion –> revolution — > civil war type scenario here in the United States, I find myself wondering about Texas. The thing about Texas is it’s something of a trans-purple state. It’s not there yet, but it’s working on it.

So, it’s possible if the country goes tits up on a national level that Texas as a polity will also collapse as the it can’t figure out if its the Texas of Ted Cruz or Beto O’Rourke. Or, it might be something like Kansas right before the civil war – it’s both and only through the force of arms does it figure it out.

Texas has a tradition of both being an independent republic and a part of the CSA.So, it’s possible it might just bounce altogether and take a wait-and-see approach if the Federal government collapses in some way. As I keep saying, if the United States imploded, there would be, maybe, five polities that would find themselves with a lot more power than they ever otherwise would.

But Texas is a crucial player in any revolutionary America. It’s a lot easy to put the Union back together if you have both Texas and California on your side to do it.

And, yet, maybe this is just me being hysterical. It’s very possible. I hope I’m wrong. I hope we punt all this down the political history road for another four years.

How The United States Implodes


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States, much like France before the 1789 revolution, dominates global politics. And, yet, the only thing that holds it all together is a shared idea of what it means to be American –and maybe the U.S. Military.

I propose that even if Biden decisively wins in November, that Barr is going to try to steal the election anyway, because, lulz. As such, my scenario of Red States absolutely thinking Trump is president and Blue States absolutely thinking Biden is president will happen and the whole rotting structure will collapse rather abruptly.

I still think it might not be a civil war we have to worry about, but a fucking revolution. I say this because no institution will escape unchanged. The Civil War was, in a sense, a revolution — for the South — but it actually made a lot of institutions far, far stronger. There’s a reason why Lincoln went from calling the United States “these United States” in 1861 to “the United States” in 1865.

But if the whole thing goes tits up, we really need to look at California. California simply leaving the Union is not only a massive self-own, it’s also a huge fucking cop-out. Why leave the Union to tyranny, when you could join up with other Blue States and re-imagine the whole thing? Only California has the population and economy to be a political cornerstone to a Renew American Covenant.

I guess the point of all of this is I’m a traditional Unionist by nature and I want to save the Union rather than give up. It’s just if my choice is between tyranny and the riskier (and more destructive) implosion, I want to at least want to know where California stands in all of this. I love America and simply want “a more perfect Union.”

As I keep saying, I’m being so hysterical for no other reason than it at least makes my fears concreate. I refuse to live under the tyranny of abstract fears and uncertainties.

But I do think we have to take the idea that the United States — the most powerful, most stable nation in the world — maybe isn’t so stable after all. We could actually have something akin to a revolution. If we’re lucky, it’ll be a Glorious Revolution.

If we’re not, well, glup.

How Blue States Could Win A Second American Civil War / Revolution

Excuse the hostage letter level technology.


By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am growing very irritated with fucking Proud Boys and Boogaloos stroking one out to the idea of a second civil war or revolution. So the above is my attempt to prove a point — if they face an existential threat, Blue States have a lot going for them.

Be Careful What You Wish For, Putin


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As the Russians can attest, sometimes wishing existential ill-will on your geopolitical foes can come back to bite you in the ass. The Germans sent Lenin to Russia in a sealed train at the advent of the Russian Revolution and their plan of knocking the Russians out of WW1 worked like a charm.

At least in the short term.

So, the argument could be made that Putin might get his short-term geopolitical goes should Trump cause the United States to collapse into civil war or revolution, long term, well, is a different story.

But, really, I think such speculation says more about my personal hopes for this impending clusterfuck. It’s very possible that we’ll just slip into autocracy, ally with Russia and that will be that. That definitely seems to be our fate as of right now.

Trump is never, ever leaving office for any reason. If we let him win using soft power post-election, then, well, I guess we deserve the fate we get.

Things Don’t Happen In A Vacuum


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why I feel the United States is careening towards an implosion is the Republicans are making a number of significant political misjudgements. They are acting as though their numerous provocative actions are happening in a political vacuum.

They seem to think that if they get their wish of overturning the ACA and Roe V. Wade that there won’t be any political consequences for them. Or, if there is, so what, fuck you.

So, either we turn into an autocracy or, more likely, we implode.

What I mean by this is, the United States will become so divided into Red and Blue that some sort of major violence will break out across the country. This will probably happen after many, many people become domestic political refugees as the two sides consolidate. Then some sort of Fort Sumter happens and a way we go.

It sounds really, really bonkers now. And maybe it is. I would like to make my abstract fears about the future concrete so they’re easier to manage, however. But it will be interesting to see if the “red line” for conservative-but-not-MAGA people is Trump staging a real-life coup. That will be interesting.

If you take my theory that Trump is “Gorbachev in reverse,” then, well, we’re fucked.

2021’s ‘Political 9/11’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States, the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world,has two possible fates ahead of it: despotism or collapse. When I’m in a good mood, I say there’s something of a spectrum with one of these two possible futures at either end. But, it could be a lot more extreme than that. It could be there are just two fates with little in the way of granulation.

Or, if you really want to be more specific about things, the dead hand of history has already decided that the United States is going to slip into autocracy. All of the momentum and “logic” is on Trumplandia’s side. The nattering nabobs of negativism of Blue Check Twitter liberals won’t know what hit them.

And, yet, it hasn’t happened yet.

The argument could be made that the absolute last gasp of liberal democracy in the United States, which would happen at some point between November 2020 and about January 2021, would be the thing that prompted the United States to completely implode. Trump and Barr, realizing the “soft power” of managing the media narrative isn’t going to work, decide to get rather thuggish in an attempt to maintain power. This would like be something akin to a political 9/11.

It would be something, done either by House Trump or MAGA-Qanon, that was so brazen, so outrageous, that no amount of talking heads trying to calm everyone down will work. It could be, on a political level, something that is obviously a coup — or is, at least, to everyone but MAGA-Qanon.

I’m thinking there could also be a sort coordinated attack on the leadership of the opposition to Trump or an Oklahoma City-type explosion somewhere. Or, if you really wanted to go full Nazi — some sort of major false flag operation so Trump could take “total control” as we got closer to January 20th.

I say this because of the number of people who have already voted –an estimated 800,000, compared to 10,000 four years ago. As such, a lot — a lot — of things go wrong for Trump / Barr and their absolute last attempt at staying in power is a 5-4 vote at SCOTUS, things may not go the way they did in 2000. Maybe. It’s possible that any real world opposition to Trump’s final consolidation of power will be little more than a death rattle, just like the August Coup of 1991 was little more than a death rattle for the Soviet Union.

I got burned with impeachment, so it seems the most likely outcome is so subtle that we barely even realize what is really happened — Trump and Barr using the Muller Report strategy of controlling the media narrative. They go to SCOTUS and get a 5-4 vote in their favor.

For about 18 months, a lot of liberals on TV and Twitter rant about how America is “turning into” an autocracy. As we get closer to the 2022 mid-terms, it will be pretty obvious that we already are an autocracy, it’s just liberals aren’t willing to risk what’s important to them in the real world to do anything about it. So House Trump wins.

Or, put another way — either Trump consolidates power peacefully by fucking with the law post-election or the entire American Ancient Regime collapses into Blue and Red and may the best man (or woman) win. Things really are that dire.

Trump is absolutely never leaving office for any reason. He would rather destroy the United States than leave office and risk personal criminal liability. He and Barr believe they can simply message the post-election media narrative and use soft power to win.

If that doesn’t happen, they will grow more radical and more thuggish in their efforts to stay in power. This, in turn, might get a lot of people you don’t expect woke and the whole edifice collapses in on itself.

The Pink Elephant


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What we fail to notice is there is a big old Pink Elephant staring straight at us: on one end of a spectrum is despotism and on the other is collapse. The one thing that won’t happen is the peaceful transfer of power.

A lot of Twitter liberals keep missing this. They keep musing about the strange dynamics of the 2020 race, totally missing the obvious.