In 2016, there was a certain momentum to the Trump campaign. You could feel it in the air. The country really wanted him to win and so fate stepped in an brought us the Second Comey Letter.
This time, meanwhile, there definitely seems to be some momentum with Harris.
And, yet, I have a growing concern that just because Harris might win, doesn’t mean we’re done with Trump. It seems very possible that her winning would be just the beginning of a long, drawn out process that would begin election night and only end with Harris being sworn in.
My fear is that we will see a quantum leap worse political violence from what we saw in 2020 – 2021. I’m really worried that things might get out of hand and God-only-knows what might happen.
The thing that really worries me is about a second Trump administration is how people will react when his tyrannical inclinations are no longer abstract. What happens when he actually starts to be a dictator?
Now, if Trump wasn’t so fucking stupid and lazy, I would say that he could easily transition the United States directly into a MAGA autocracy without any problems. But, Trump is really stupid and lazy and he’s probably going to be very ham-handed in any transition of the USA from failing democracy to full-fledged autocracy.
Here’s what I think will happen in a Trump second term — he’s probably going to rule by executive order. If the House is Democratic, he is probably going to be repeatedly impeached for various things and the Senate will lulz it to the point that we’re all rolling our eyes about how many times they have tried to get rid of Trump.
Meanwhile, about 1 million wealthy, smug liberals are going to flee the country soon after Trump is elected. This brain drain is going to get so bad that Trump is going to lock the country down. I think there’s going to be a shocking change in TV content — specifically late night TV.
Late night TV is going to be neutered in one fell swoop. That is going to be a change that the average person that maybe isn’t all that interested in politics will notice.
Now, all of this will happen in the context of potential uprisings in Blue States over Trump literally being a tyrant. This is where things get fuzzy and murky. I just can’t game out what will happen relative to the U.S. Military.
Will they follow Trump’s orders, or will they balk and sit on their hands? It seems pretty clear that Trump is going to force the issue of civilian – military relations to the breaking point.
That is when things will get really interesting because I simply can’t tell you what might happen. It could be that using the military on domestic opponents will be a bridge too far and they simply ignore whatever Trump has to say.
If that happens, then it could be that either the military collapses or Trump leans into paramilitary groups to do his bidding.
I just don’t know. I just hope the motherfucker doesn’t become president. That’s all I got at this point.
The more I think about it, the more I realize that it’s possible that if — God forbid — there is a Second American Civil War, it won’t be about secession, but rather who the president is. I’m thinking in the context of, say, Trump somehow stealing the election outright and Blue states getting really upset about that in a way that causes him to send in the troops.
Or something like that.
But, I must admit, given the context, that if it’s Reds who refuse to accept that Harris is president, I just can’t see states like Texas being placated by “fighting from within.” Maybe the crisis would start off as a “recognition” crisis, but it would ultimately slide into a secession crisis.
There are so many elements of Trump’s potential tyranny on a practical basis that we just don’t know the endgame of. What will be the reaction of Blue States if Trump goes full tyrant and does all these bonkers things he keeps ranting about?
One thing I find myself thinking about way too much these days is what the U.S. Military will do.
If Trump really goes full tyrant…I just don’t know. If Trump demands that the U.S. Military do patently illegal and political things domestically against the Blues…oh boy. There is a greater-than-zero chance that they — or least the officer corp — will balk at such a move.
Do I think Trump might be “deposed” in some way? I just don’t know. Probably not. But if Trump *is* re-elected, holy shit are we in for a type of political turbulence we’ve not seen since 1865.
My real fear at this point is we won’t know one way or another who the winner of the 2024 election is for a lot longer than necessary — and / or the whole thing ends up at SCOTUS.
Any such scenario involves the country being a lot more unstable than I would prefer to think about. I’ve been so wrapped up, worried about these issues that I’m kind of locked in neutral. I just don’t quite know what to do.
I am worried that at some point in the next few months that I’m going to be driven from my home by crazed MAGA people. I just don’t know what I’m going to do about that if it happens.
Here are some random thoughts on a potential second Trump term.
Foreign Policy: I think there’s a good chance that the United States will pull out of NATO if Trump wins. I also think that the United States may pull out of at least South Korea as well. The US will grow amazingly tight with Russia in a way that is going to upend the global order.
Domestic Policy This is a bit more murky because I don’t know how much Trump could actually get away with. But I do think he’s so stupid and lazy that he might go “full tyrant.” If he does that, then, all bets are off. The United States in 2024 is not Germany in 1933. It’s a lot less centralized and homogenized to the point that if Trump goes nuts and tries to, through brut force, to turn the country into a “hard” autocracy…there are bound to be consequences. If Trump starts to round people — like me! — up along with all those undocumented people then that is going to really stir people up. Add to this the possibility that Trump might use Red State militaries on Blue States….yikes.
I’m reading the book “The Death Of Democracy” which details the lead up to the Nazis victory in Germany in 1933. My fear, of course, is that when all is said and done that yet again, Americans will want to live in an autocracy.
That’s what’s happened in 2016 — people really wanted to live in an autocracy. But, that go around, at least, Trump turned out to be just an empty suit that couldn’t get the job done. This time, however, I fear Trump 2.0 will be much, much more effective as an autocrat, given the opportunity.
They just want to deport millions of undocumented people, make Trans people “go away” and bring back the America they remember from their youth. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens Trump has the opportunity to do all the tyrannical things he keeps ranting about at the moment.
But, I suppose, only time will tell. There’s still a chance that he won’t get elected. Yet, if he does get elected, I’m really, really worried that people simply won’t stand for his tyrannical bullshit and he will, in some way, be “deposed.”
I hate violence of any sort, so all of this is just in the abstract — I’m definitely not advocating anything. But it is something to think about.
I’m still stuck in something of a creative neutral of late. I just don’t quite know what to do, given that American democracy hinges on who wins the election. So. lulz?
Ugh.
I’m just very unable to game out who is going to win the election. In general, I would say that Kamala Harris does seem as though she has a lot of momentum at the moment. And, yet, even if she wins, there a real risk that the country will collapse into chaos because Trump will demand a National Divorce.
And I do think that Texas would at least seriously think about leaving the Union if Trump did so such ranting. The whole thing makes me so nervous that it’s difficult for me to do anything creative. I hope that won’t last forever.
I just don’t know. Things are so tight that my fear is that I’m just going to be in a haze for the next few weeks while I wait for the election to happen. It just seems like we’re careening towards some sort of dark void that could lead to tyranny if Trump wins and civil war if he loses.
For the time being I fear I may be stuck in something of a creative neutral while I wait to see if the country collapses into civil war after the 2024 election. i don’t think it’s going to happen, but, as the song goes, “the waiting is the hardest part.”
It’s the not knowing that is really getting to me.
It’s just a general sense of angst about the fate of the country that has me mentally preoccupied for the time being. I have all these creative things I want to do, and I’m locked in neutral in my mind and heart while I wait to see what happens next.
But hopefully — hopefully — I will shake out of it sooner rather than later. It would suck if I simply stared out into space for the next two weeks while I waited to see if the country collapsed into chaos or not.
One thing I’ve noticed about a lot of the liberal, hand wringing think pieces about any possible impending Trump second term is how abstract they are. They don’t really get into the nitty-gritty of what the reaction in Blue states might be if Trump went “full tyrant.”
Now, if Trump is all talk and is more Victor Orban in his autocracy, then I think he will be fine. He will lay the cornerstone for an autocratic state that will probably last for the rest of my life. We will continue to have “elections” but they will be anything but free and or fair.
My fear is, of course, that Trump is so dumb and bonkers that he goes full hard tyrant and does such crazy shit that the country buckles in some way. If Trump canceled, say, the midterms or the 2028 elections, then that would be….oh boy, a bridge too far for most people Red or Blue.
Or if he really did gather up 20 million undocumented people, put them in camps and started to deport them. That would be something, on a practical basis, that a lot of Blue states simply would not stand for. And that doesn’t even begin to address what might happen if, say, Trump started to use Red National Guard troops on the populations of Blue States.
That kind of “hard” tyranny is the kind of stuff that gives me pause for thought. The country would be shaken to its core in a way not seen sense the American Civil War. I have pondered some “legalistic” ways Trump might be deposed by the military, but, alas, I don’t even think that would help much because Trump would replace too much of the leadership of the military.
The point is — if Trump wins, the US could buckle in a pretty dramatic fashion. And if Blues were able to successfully depose Trump, that would only set the stage for a civil war, with Red states leaving the Union in protest. So, for everyone’s sake, I think some situation where Trump loses and simply drifts off into the political darkness would be the best for everyone involved.
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