Tag: Second American Civil War

American ‘Ancien Regime’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Before I begin, let’s put things in context. I’m a big old nobody in the rural portion of a flyover state. Absolutely nobody gives me any mind for any reason. I could literally vanish off the face of the earth and it would take a few days for anyone to notice. And, in general, I’m a pretty copacetic, easy going guy. And I’m definitely NOT a “loner who keeps to himself.”

Power To The People

I’m actually quite extroverted and honest, to a fault. Generally, if I’m thinking about it, you’ll hear about it if you’re paying attention to me.

I say all that to make it clear that this is nothing more than a thought experiment. It’s not like this is meant to be some sort of liberal-progressive Turner Diaries. It’s just interesting to look at the State of the Union with a critical eye. That’s it. That’s all that’s going on. If this was 10 years ago and I was living in NYC, this the type of thing that might pop up on the old Gawker blog.

The Case
America’s Ancien Regime is, at least on the surface, rock solid. It’s been around for about 240 years. The very idea that it might rather suddenly grow extremely unstable to the point of collapse is not something that the average person even contemplates as possible.

And, yet, something is existentially wrong with the American Ancien Regime. There is now an enormous disconnect between people and the government. Because they’re the most vocal, we often see this disconnect through the lens of the Far Right. But the argument can be made that, if anything, the rise of Trump gives us an indication that we’ve reached the stage where the rot inside the ostensibly stable American Ancien Regime has grown so severe that something truly astonishing might happen far, far sooner than anyone could possibly imagine.

But what, exactly is wrong with the current American system? I would suggest that a number of major macro trends are all coming to a head at the same time. The United States is no longer a liberal democracy that represents the people, it is a plutocracy that is one election away from turning into something akin to an autocratic semi-monarchal managed democracy. In fact, I would suggest that the dead hand of history has made its decision.

Trump’s “Spaghetti Strategy” for “winning” the 2020 election is going to work. It’s all over but the shouting. We’re not the United States anymore, we’re nothing more than Trumplandia. My fidelity is to the United States, not Trumplandia, and, as such, at least on an abstract thought-experiment basis, I am prepared to mull how to, uhhh, make America great again, if you will.

When You Come To A Fork In The Road, Take It
So, we have before us two options — let Trumplandia consolidate or we renew the American Covenant. Let me be clear — this is meant to be a very abstract text. I’m not advocating anything. I’m simply saying — should the moment arise when we’re actually given the opportunity to do something about Trumplandia we can’t be afraid. We have to stand and fight.

That opportunity may never come. We may slip rather quietly into Trumplandia and not look back for decades. This is a very real possibility.

But while Trumplandia probably started the moment Trump was aquitted, the case could be made that American self-perception hasn’t realize it yet. And, as such, there is a window of opportunity. Again, not advocating anything. This is more about pointing out opportunities than it is telling anyone to do anything about it.

In fact, I would go so far as to suggest that for those “opportunity” to arise, it wouldn’t even be in the hands of the governed — it would happen because of a historic miscalculation on the part of Trump and Barr. And, honestly, it might not even be an actual miscalculation.

They know that relative to all the metrics they have at their disposal that should Trump not win outright on Election Night that everything after the election is simple media narrative management. They got away with it with the Mueller Report, they have every reason to believe they can do it again with the 2020 Election.

And, at this point, there’s absolutely no reason not to think they aren’t right.

Trump won in the Senate. He’s going to “win” the 2020 election and, later, he’s going to win with the Constitutional Convention he inevitably demands.

So, really, all I got is Trump’s a massive self-own artist. A fish rots from its head, as they say. Therefore it is, at least possible that Trump is going to screw up on such a massive level at some point between November and January that the country implodes. (Not something I want. Just a possibility.)

The Goals
So what if my worst nightmare happens and the United States implodes? Then what? Well, the key thing to remember is should the American Ancien Regime collapse, the Fourth Estate is probably going with it. The American media has been so complicit, timid and oblivious to the rise of Trumplandia that I honestly don’t see how it, as an institution, would survive any sort of theoretical “Second American Revolution.”

As an aside, I think it really would be a revolution instead of civil war. I say this because a lot of Twitter liberals are so full of themselves that they seem to think some sort of utopia (with Canada?) will happen if only Blue States can leave the Union. The issue is, outside of some chunks of California, I just don’t see actual secession taking hold in most Blue States. This would be a revolution against the moronic tyranny of one man — Donald J. Trump. As such, it makes a lot more sense on a number of strategic levels to stay and fight rather than attempt to leave the Union altogether. All of this is extremely difficult for me to pace out because of how speculative it is. So, it’s very possible I might get a lot of things wrong.

One thing I spend a lot of time thinking about is how, exactly, this so-called “Second American Revolution” might begin. There are a number of scenarios. But one might be that Trump simply screws up. He does something so outrageous that even conservative-but-not-MAGA people get woke. If that happened, then Trumplandia will be stillborn.

The goals of any Second American Revolution would likely be to “renew the vows,” shall we say, of the American Covenant. There are a lot — a lot — of popular ideas and policies that have not been implemented because of the extreme corruption, and lack of representation found with American Ancien Regime.

I might suggest codifying some sort of protection for reproductive rights in a new Constitution. A re-imagined Senate would also be a goal for any Renewed American Covenant. And, some sort of addressing of systemic racism in the United States as well.

For my part, if I had any say in the matter — which I obviously never will — I would codify the nullification of Trumplandia with extreme legal prejudice. Everything Trump did while in office would be vacated. Just thinking about that makes me feel smile.

This is just a rough back-of-the-envelope sketch of what the aims of any Second American Revolution might be.

Like I keep saying, I fear I’m being both “delusional and stupid” to even broach the subject. Trumplandia is here and we’re just going to have to get used to it.

‘A Historic Miscalculation’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It continue to elude me what, exactly, the agenda is of the Far Right paramilitary groups that have begun to mence the United States population. What, exactly, are they trying to achieve? Trump loves him some Far Right support, so their efforts at intimidation seem rather redundant since they’re getting everything they want politically through Trump himself.

But here we are.

While a lot of people — like me — who use Twitter too much are freaking out about our obvious decent into autocratic managed democracy once Trump and Barr steal the 2020 election (probably through controlling the media narrative), the average American has been extremely complacent about all of this.

As such, I have no reason to believe they won’t continue to be so, no matter what happens over the course of the next few months. The political opposition to Trump — be it in Congress or the media — is extremely weak and timid. And they only do anything when they absolutely feel they have some sort of support for their actions — in other words, they don’t really show a lot of leadership.

So, the entire fate of the Republic (or what’s left of it) is hinging on Trump making some sort of historic miscalculation, some sort of self-own that I simply can’t predict. I simply have no way to predict what it might be or if it will even happen at all.

It seems safe to assume that even if there were mass protests as Trump began his final consolidation of power in the lead up being sworn in again, that the average American would be more concerned with any violence that might happen and Trump’s “law and order” reaction to it. The average center-Right-but-not-MAGA person, the support of whom would be crucial for any sort of effective mass response to Trump’s tyranny, simply won’t be there when we need them.

So, again, I have to assume that Trump is going to get his wish. In the end, he “won’t lose” as is the case with all autocrats and gradually between 2021 and, say, the fall of 2022, the final throttling of American liberty will occur. People will get snatched off the street and pushed out of windows on a regular basis. Major Democrat leaders will mysteriously be indicted or, worse yet, poisoned.

In other words, barring something I can’t predict, we aren’t even going to put up a fight.

‘Something’s In The Air’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel an existential unease in the United States right now. I’m reading a new biography of President Grant right now, and it alludes to how in the late 1850s everyone saw some sort of conflict rushing towards them.

While I may openly mull some sort of armed conflict in the United States, be it civil war or revolution — or both — as of right now I have no actual reason to believe any of that is possible. The United States is to big and too stable for it to simply, well, collapse. If anything, it’s going to slip, with its eyes wide open, into some sort of autocratic managed democracy like what is found in modern day Russia.

That definitely seems to be our fate.

I say that because of Trump’s “Spaghetti Strategy” when it comes stealing the 2020 election. He’s simply throwing everything he can at it in an attempt to see what sticks. And, really, from his point of view, you could say that he knows that post-election, all he has to do is control the media narrative and he is going to win. People will grow too frustrated with the process. Or too nervous about armed conflict. Or to confused. Or what have you.

Again, as of right now, I have to agree with him.

But I do like a good thought experiment, so I guess you could speculate he and Barr might be setting themselves up for a historic miscalculation? Maybe? And the source of that miscalculation would they would not appricate that no matter how much they control the media narrative there’s a chance that the whole thing would smash up against American self-perception. Americans believe they live in a free country and the “soft power” attempt to steal the election Trump and Barr are hoping for might not work.

If it doesn’t then — since autocrats never lose — they might be a bit more ham-handed in their attempts to steal the election, which would only make matters a quantum leap worse. But I’m making a huge strategic bet on something that, to date, simply hasn’t been there — the average person who is not on Twitter being willing to risk things that are important to them in real life in an effort to protect the sanctity of the Republic.

For the last five years, Trump has faced no real accountability. He’s had his worst impulses blunted, but in general, he’s gotten everything he wanted because of the Vichy, callow nature of Senate Republicans, among others. And there’s no reason to believe that if Trump took “total control” as Roger Stone would suggest that the entire edifice of the Republican Party wouldn’t go along with it.

And, as such, the final arbiter of this particular situation would be the American people, the volk, themselves. If nothing happens, then the First Republic fails and we enter the Trumplandia Era of the United States. After about 40 years, when the last of the Baby Boomers finally croke, then we can think about maybe founding a Second Republic from the ashes of the old.

Something pretty astonishing would have to happen, at this point, for us to not to slip into autocracy. Something I simply can’t predict. We have our fate in our own hands, but nothing to date has indicated we really care all that much.

Prove me wrong.

‘The Whisper’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s time America had “the talk.”

Not about where babies come from, but something just as existential — our national covenant.

I only even suggest this because there may come a time — very soon — when that particular issue is not nearly as abstract — or completely bonkers — as it seems right now.

We to start to at least think about re-imagining, rededicating, and renewing the social contract. How — or why — such a momentous decision might be foisted upon us remains a mystery.

But better to at least ruminate on what the goals of a Renewed American Covenant might be instead of being surprised when the question is poised.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Strategy’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These are times that try men’s souls, as Thomas Paine would say.

The dead hand of history is well on its way to “sweeping aside the last vestiges of the Republic” as they might say in Star Wars. It’s all because risking things that are important to you in the real world — especially if you’re a member of the existing establishment — isn’t exactly something you feel obliged to do.

As such, definitely seems to me that it’s a foregone conclusion that the United States will be an autocratic managed democracy by the time Trump is sworn in for a second (stolen) term.

I say this because of Trump’s “Spaghetti strategy” for winning re-election — he’s simply going to throw everything he’s got at the wall and see what sticks. So if it’s not fucking with the postal service, it’s fucking with the actual selection of Electors. If it’s not that, then it’s the bullshit Durham Investigation. And, after about a half dozen other things, he’s assuming that the Russians will — as part of a quid pro quo for removing 1/3 of our troops from German — hack directly into our election systems.

So, in a sense, I’ve reached acceptance — there may be moments in the next few months when we think somehow we’re going to escape living in an autocratic state, but in the end, mysteriously, Trump will still be in office.

Autocrats, as they say, never lose.

As I’ve said many times — really, the only person who can change both our fate and that of Trump is, well, Trump. He has the entire edifice of the Republican Party at his disposal. So unless Trump self-owns in a pretty massive way, we’re going to collectively buckle and fall to our knees before Mad King Trump.

Something pretty spectacular would have to change for this not to happen. Something I can’t predict. And I just don’t see it happening.

I keep vacillating wildly between having hope that we might all get woke in time to fix this problem and acceptance that in the end not even Trump’s tendency to self-own would fix the problem.

I don’t know. Surprise me folks.

Second American Revolution: A Possible Historic Trump Self-Own


“…Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness”
The Declaration of Independence


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For about five years now, the laws of politics have been suspended. Trump has experienced little or no accountability for his autocratic inclinations. And, in a sense, what we face now was always going to happen — the only thing standing in the way of his dream of being an American Putin is the 2020 Election.

Bill Barr and Donald Trump.

That’s it.

Once he gets past that obstacle, he will finally achieve wealth and power beyond his wildest imagination.

And, really, if we see Trump as sort of an inverse of Gorbachev, then even if there was some sort of “counter-coup” on the part of Nancy Pelosi, Trump still wins. Or, put another way, the dead hand of history is now so powerful that some truly astonishing would have to happen for America’s slip into autocracy being rather prosaic.

So, in a sense, I think we need to start thinking about either leaving the country (if you can) or begin making arrangements for how to placate Big Brother win the time comes. I honestly think that’s our fate. We just don’t have it in us to do what is necessary to push back against the rush towards autocracy we find ourselves in on a macro level.

But, for no other reason than to make myself feel better, let’s imagine a scenario where Trump’s natural inclination to self-own gets in the way of his final consolidation of power. The only way I could possibly see this happening is if Trump and Barr’s attempt to secure the presidency through owning the media narrative somehow falls apart.

Something no one — especially me — can’t predict happens that suddenly changes the state of play on the ground.

A key issue is while Barr is The Brain to Trump’s Pinky, Trump is still fucking screw up. If things got tricky in an American obviously near revolution, I just don’t see Trump handling that situation very well. The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman can sell her soul for access all she wants — Trump is not a political genius.


Donald J. Trump, 45 President of the United States.
He is nothing more than a deranged version of Chauncey Gardner from Being There. That’s all he ever has been — he’s just a vessel, an avatar for some pretty fucked up existential problems in the American political system.

Before I go any further, let’s be clear — in my mind, all my running scenarios about how we might manage to have some sort of “Renewed American Covenant” is nothing more than me having way too much mental energy and maybe nerves about living in an autocracy. Trump was never going to get convicted in the Senate and as of right now, it seems that Trump is never leaving office for any reason, even if it means burning it to the ground. So, this is a serious flight of fancy. It’s meaningless. But it is fun, I guess, to daydream.

So, for Trump to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, he would have to ring the Liberty Bell, if you will, in the hearts of the average American. He would have to do something — or be personally blamed for something — that went against the American sense of what it means to be, well, American.

That I have to essentially bet that something I can’t predict is how the nation I love is saved is not really all that great a situation. And, even then, I’m working on the assumption that that would just be the BEGINING of something that might lead to some sort of national renewal. And to get that Renewed American Covenant we would have to go through an unprecedented tragedy that I really, really don’t want it to happen.

This is just me trying to console myself by turning the abstract fear of what might happen into a more manageable concrete scenario I can roll around in my mind.

Or, put another way, I love to run scenarios and this just happens to be one that I can use to figure out how to get America back on track (if only after a significant shake up.)

But I guess it is possible that at some point between Election Night and Trump’s final consolidation of power in January, he screws up. Whatever he does is so bad that a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people abandon him. So much so that there is something of an Apocalyptic Rock Fight between MAGA-Qanon and everyone else.

So that would be the setup for a Second American Revolution. Trump, through Barr, gets a thin veneer of legality to his second term and yet somehow he screws the plan up and there’s some sort of “revolt” (probably starting somewhere like New York City).

He tries to put it down using the Insurrection Act, Something Bad happens as a result and finally, finally, FINALLY a few conservative-but-not-MAGA people begin to at least tacitly accept some sort of organize resistance-in-real-life-where-you-might-get-hurt-or-lose-your-well-paying-job happens.

This is all very serious, folks. This is not a video game. This is not an angry Twitter thread.

This would be real life.

A Second American Revolution?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, if you want to get all apocalyptic about it, it’s not a Second American Civil War we should be worried about it’s a Second American Revolution.

Would the Second American Revolution be more like the First French Revolution?

The reason why I say this is we’re looking at the existential threat facing the United States all wrong. While, yes, there are two sides to the conflict brewing within the United States, the case could be made that once we break the seal on this matter, no institution will be spared.

So, in that sense, it would be a lot more like a revolution than a civil war. The American Civil War actually strengthened a number of existing institutions in the United States after it was all done with. If, say, Trump attempts to take “total control” as Roger Stone would suggest he do, then any domestic insurrection would likely leave no existing institution untouched.

In fact, the United States may be completely re-magined if such a rebellion against Mad King Trump’s Trumplandia succeeded. A lot of bent up political reforms would explode out into the open rather radically in a very short amount of time and, as such, when all was said and done, future historians would definitely mark the looming conflict a “revolution” and not a “civil war.”

One reason why we think we would have a “civil war” instead of a “revolution” is we are, in our minds, fighting the last major domestic war — the American Civil War. But there was a American Revolution before that

.

Before we all get too hysterical about any of this, there are some caveats. We could still simply slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open and in a rather peaceful manner. Instead of any great historical drama, it would be a rather prosaic slip into a very American autocracy in the sense that Trump keeps doing what he’s already doing for a few years before the final boom drops. That would give people time to slowly grow accustomed to the change in the American experience and so it all turns into a lulz.

Only when, say, Q in a few years orders his followers to empty the cities and we have American Killing fields will anyone get too upset.

But, we are talking about a huge fucking moron named Donald Trump. He’s a massive self-own artist and, as such, out of sheer criminal incompetence he stirs up the volk in a way no one expects. Some pretty surreal political events might happen in quick success and before we know it, some sort of New Model Army has been established and not even the U.S. Military survives the implosion of the country.

As such, it’s at least possible that Trump without even really thinking about it pushes the country not into civil war, but revolution. Things grow far more radical for both sides and it’s not about states wanting to leave the Union or not, it’s about are we Trumplandia or are we America? Are we an American Union and, as such, take such a massive crisis as an opportunity to renew or covenant, or are we nothing more than a reflection of Trump’s ego? The stakes , as such, grow far more serious on a number of levels.

I will point out that usually it’s a war that leads to major technological innovations, so it’s possible to imagine a scenario where a lot of technology that’s kind of there-but-not-being-used like AI, MX, robotics and automatic comes roaring to the forefront of society because they’re used for military reasons in a desperate pitched battle for control over the geographic area currently known as the United States of America.

All of this is extremely fantastical. I struggle to even comprehend how an otherwise stable nation like the United States could find itself in a position where civil war — or revolution — is actually a near future possibility. It just makes no sense.

But here we are.

The Coming Second American Civil War – The Taking Of Trump Tower


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not advocating any of this. I’m just making an observation about when you should start making serious contingency plans about what you are going to do should the country actually fucking implode.

First of all, there are a lot — a lot — of conditions I simply can’t game out. I have no idea if the average American can overcome their general political apathy to take matters into their own hands if it becomes absolutely clear that House Trump is, in fact, going to take “total control” as Roger Stones suggest they do.

It’s very easy to assume some sort of muddle punt of Trump’s plans that leave him in power, but in such a way that we continue to gradually drift towards a Russian-style managed democracy rather peacefully. The reason why I say this is, the harder it is for Trump to stay in power, the more radical he is likely to grow.

As such, if it really gets all that brazen post-election, there’s one place I could see serving as the fire shot of any sort of civil war or revolution — Trump Tower in NYC. I say this because of what it is — Trump’s Rosebud. What better way to get the point across than for an angry mob of New Yorkers to storm Trump Tower and gut it — maybe setting it on fire. This would not be a value free event — if things had gotten that bad by that point, then, well, grab your bugout bag and head for safety.

Given how completely out of character such behavior would be for Americans, I would suggest that any “Taking of Trump Tower” might be looked upon in hindsight as something akin to the Storming of The Bastille. Nothing good would come of it in the short term because it’s just the type of thing that would cause a rapid consolidation of Blue and Red States in the sense that massive number of political refugees might begin to go from one side to the other before the country finally imploded.

One thing I continue to struggle with is how any of this is possible. How is it that an otherwise stable nation like the United States may very well, fucking implode because of one shitty president. What the fuck is wrong with us? What am I missing?

Anyway, I’m not advocating this. Please don’t do this. Peaceful protests are very powerful with enough numbers. I hate violence. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But I’m also not brain dead.

But Why?

Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t want a civil war. I don’t want a revolution. But given my personality, it’s inevitable that I will talk about stuff like that to a near-obsessive extent for no other reason than it makes me feel better.

One of the place I’ve begun to tentatively think out loud about civil war or revolution is of all places Tik-Tok. Some obvious MAGA person responded to a video I did about all that bullshit by saying, “Biden and all of the Democrats will be destroyed.”

Now, given that the Left and Right echo chambers no longer talk to each other online, for someone to say so definitively that MAGA would win a civil war / revolution indicates that he definitely has been thinking about such events, too.

This brings up the this issue — I simply don’t get all the talk of inflicting terror on “Libtards” the part of MAGA-Qanon. There is something seriously fucked up in our political system that things have gotten this bad. I honestly don’t know why MAGA-Qanon is so bloodthirsty, even if only on a rhetorical level. What is the origin of all this hate, all this willingness to hurt people simply because they disagree with you politically?

The only reason why I talk about civil war / revolution is I’ve decided to take the overwrought rhetoric of MAGA-Qanon both seriously and literally. They want to have that conversation? Ok, well, I’ll give to them. I wish could prove to them that rather than be “destroyed,” “Joe Biden and the Democrats” are actually in a far better position strategically than MAGA-Qanon might otherwise thing.

In fact, I’ve written at great length about this very thing repeatedly. The only thing that MAGA-Qanon has going for it is a bloodthirsty first-mover advantage. If they can’t strike a knockout blow in the opening days of any civil war / revolution, they’re far from certain to win.

Anyway, I don’t want any of it. I just want a liberal democracy. Nothing radical, nothing controversial, just a functioning liberal democracy. That shouldn’t be too much to ask.

Forward Deployed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have lost everything a few times in my life. And, yet, I’ve managed to survive with little more than the clothes on my back. Living in South Korea for five years gave me a very good understanding of my personal skillset. I’m good at abstract and strategic thinking and I’m good in a crisis.

The only reason why I mention any of this the same spidey sense that has managed to get me out of more than one scrap over the years is really beginning to tingle violently. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But damn if I’m going to sit on my hands if the nation I love so much implodes because of a fucking failed TV gameshow host.

But I’m well aware I’m a rando nobody. I don’t even have a Blue Check on Twitter. No one listens to me and they probably shouldn’t, no matter what I say.

And, yet, Something Big is about to happen to the United States in a future that can be counted in months. As it stands, for personal reasons, if my absolute worst fears are realized — civil war / revolution — I’m just going to hunker down. I might try to organize some sort of neighborhood defense if it really got THAT bad.

My absolute worst fear, however, is that simply isn’t going to be enough. My fear is, because of my politics, I’m going to be forced out of my rural MAGA community. I’m going to lose everything AGAIN. If that happens, I head north towards NYC.

The thinking is, if I’m forced out of my town because of my politics, I won’t be alone. It’s not like I’m just going to be a lone Blue person walking north. There’s likely to be so many people doing that same thing that some sort of infrastructure will be built out to accommodate us. As such, I’m going to try to make my way to NYC for no other reason that I have a huge ego and think I can use my personal skillset to make some sort of difference.

Of course, if you think I’m being extremely delusional, you’re probably right. But, like I said, I’m not going to watch idly by while tyranny puts Lady Columbia under a jackboot.

I hate that I even have to think like this now. I think, in all honesty, that Trump’s going to “win” without incident (rather mysteriously) on Election Night and we’ll just continue our drift towards an autocratic managed democracy. If I have to start worrying about being snatched off the street or pushed out a window because of my political views, then, so be it.

But the key thing about crisis management is knowing you’re in a crisis in the first place. We’re in a crisis. It’s up to us to figure out how it all gets sorted out.

Keep the faith, patriots.