Tag: Second American Civil War

The Taking Of Trump Tower


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not advocating any of this. And, in all honesty, my predictive abilities have taken a big hit recently — I was absolutely sure a Hunter Biden deep fake was going to pop out on Friday and, lulz, no. (At least so far.)

But if you assume The Big Ugly is going to happen because, lulz, Republicans hate democracy, brown people and women, then, well, there’s one particular place that seems a prime spot for its beginning: Trump Tower in NYC.

If such a thing was to happen, it would likely happen in the context of a massive freakout by New Yorkers as it became obvious that their most hated native son was in the process of staging A Very American Coup. They would also likely storm the HQ of FOX News to get their point across. But what better way to put a hurting on House Trump than storm their personal version of Versaille. Now, I’m definitely not advocating this — real people would get hurt if an angry mob stormed Trump Tower.

This would be counter-productive for a number of reasons, chief among them being Trump would likely use the Insurrection Act to effectively put New York City under martial law.

The main issue is that the United States — otherwise the most stable and powerful nation in the world — is on the cusp of implosion because or politics is so absolutely fucked up that Republicans would rather destroy the country than give up power. Some of their behavior if you read about it in a history book would make you go, “Yep, that country was going to have a revolution.”

There are just so many known unknowns. All I know is you can’t have one of your major political parties acting like the Republican Party is right now without significant election-related instability.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. It would be a pleasant surprise if we had a self-evident Biden landslide and I can go back to working on my novel.

The Big Ugly: The Conditions Exist For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we lurch towards Election Day, it’s becoming ever more apparent than at least on the basis of attitude of the two sides the conditions for significant political violence exists. On one hand, the Republicans are looking towards Amy Coney Barrett to be their failsafe in case the election is close enough that anything goes to SCOTUS. On the other hand, Democrats are pumped that on a political level, Biden may be on the cusp of a landslide.

Republicans are so craven — and so blinded by ideology — that they aren’t even factoring in the consequences of their anti-democratic behavior should they manage to pull it off. All they care about is a Trump victory and fuck you. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where they get what they want: Trump wins, but that’s just the beginning of the crisis.

If Biden wins a massive landslide in the popular vote but because of the legal ratfucking of the Republican Party he doesn’t legally become president, we would be in uncharted territory.

Now, the fix to this problem is a Biden victory that is so enormous that it has some wiggle room to handle the very legal ratfucking I mentioned. We have to accept that Amy Coney Barrett is going to hand the election to Trump if that becomes an issue. The solution is for her not to be given the option.

Of course, if there is a Biden landslide, we would likely have to deal with significant political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who don’t see anyone but Trump as legitimate. Trump could pounce on such violence as something of a Reichstag Fire and assume the “total control” Roger Stone believes he should do, even if the violence was caused by his own supporters.

The point is — autocrats never lose. Never. I haven’t even mentioned the likelihood that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems to throw the election to Trump. Even if we discover this, it’s very likely the whole thing goes to SCOTUS…where Amy Coney Barrett will vote for Trump.

All in all, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. I don’t see how we get through the next few months without some sort of massive political violence to the extent that we see an enormous amount of domestic political refugees.

The only way that doesn’t happen is a massive Biden win combined with Trump simply giving up. He will likely salt the earth on the way out, however. He’s going to fire anyone he doesn’t like and pardon anyone he feels he needs to in order to save his sorry ass — including himself!



The Dead Hand Of History Suggests Either Trump ‘Doesn’t Lose’ Or The Country Implodes After The Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The weird thing about the modern era, is I’ve read enough history books to know some sense of how they would describe what’s going on around us — our Republic is becoming an empire. It definitely seems as though one scenario would the United States becomes a semi-monarchial autocratic state with a House Trump that rules the country (poorly) until the Browning of America makes their rule untenable.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. Trump, with the help of the Russians hacking directly into our election systems, will “not lose.” He strangles any semblance of liberal democracy in the United States and whatever’s left is allowed to exist because it’s not a threat. In fits and starts over the next two year or so, Trump accelerates our drive towards autocracy and that’s that. That definitely seems to be the path we’re on right now.

What’s worse, if the Russians somehow allow Biden to win, then we face a different problem — MAGA-Qanon could very well begin to blow shit up and actually start killing people (like me!) out of spite in support of The Dear Leader. They try to sucker punch the center-Left, deliver a knock-out blow. Given that they will have the full authority of the Trump regime on their side, it definitely seems as though they will get away with it.

Of course, Trump is such an incompetent moron, that there’s at least a small chance that even with the legal might of Interior Secretary Bill Barr at his disposal, he’s so ham-handed and brazen in his Very American Coup that the country implodes for no other reason than Trump finally jiggles American self-perception enough that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA finally get woke. That really seems like a liberal fever dream at this point, but who knows.

The 2020 election definitely has a 1860 vibe to it, is all I gotta say. It feels as though the nation is at a crossroads and because MAGA is so insane, if they don’t get what they want, it seems reasonable to assume they’re going to start killing people (like me!) The question, of course, is what our reaction to such behavior will be.

I honestly don’t know.

The Only Way To Save The Republic Is A Biden Landslide


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a very good chance that mysteriously Trump will win the electoral college in exactly the same way he did in 2016. We will all be in shock. We will write it off to all the boat parades or the “shy Trump voter” or whatever. At some point — maybe never — we will learn, however, that the Russians fucked with our election systems and threw election to Trump.

The darkest scenario, of course, is we will learn this happened before the Electors Vote, TrumpBarr lulz it and fight the issue in the courts and Trump STILL “wins” the election because of a 6-3 (5-4?) vote at SCOTUS. In fact, that definitely seems to be the failsafe for Republicans at this point. This are so rabid in their desire to win the election that they are completely oblivious to the political consequences of such behavior that it’s definitely the setup for The Big Ugly of civil war or revolution.

But, even without Russian help, if the election is anywhere close, we’re going to have not a Brooks Brothers Riot, but a Brooks Brothers War. There could be real, unprecedented political violence across the country as it becomes clear that TrumpBarr intends A Very American Coup. They already are suing everything that moves before the election, you can only assume that if they believe they have any — ANY — shot of stealing the election through extra-political means, they will pull that particular trigger.

So, really, the only way we keep the Republic is if somehow the Russians don’t do what I assume they’re going to do and Biden wins in such a massive landslide that it at least grows more difficult for TrumpBarr to pull of A Very American Coup — even though, obviously, they will try anyway.

I just don’t see how the post-election period isn’t one of unprecedented instability and even violence if Biden doesn’t win in a massive landslide. The Republican party simply doesn’t see democracy as valid if it isn’t helping them obtain or maintain power, so, lulz.

‘A Very American Coup:’ Russian Hacking, SCOTUS & A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the conditions are there for a truly nightmarish scenario. Imagine this happens — Trump just barely wins / loses Pennsylvania and or Florida. It’s so close that people begin to wonder how this is possible. Soon enough, we learn that the Russians fucked with our election systems.

Now, logically, one would say, we would figure out who really won — Biden — and then the Electors would vote for him.

But, no, what might happen is this is such a massive clusterfuck that it goes to SCOTUS and Trump wins 6-3 there. This, even though it’s obvious that the Russians were working hand-in-glove with the Trump Campaign to pull this off. I keep saying this would be because of a quid pro quo to remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany, but, lulz.

Of all the nightmare scenarios I’ve come up with, this has got to be the worst. Imagine if the very same thing that allowed Trump to win in 2016 was taken to the next level in the sense that not only did we all know that Trump won with Russian help, but SCOTUS aided and abetted this traitorous plot.

If that didn’t cause significant political violence, I don’t know what would. The country would implode and then a civil war / revolution would happen. Or, at least, we would come the closest we’ve come since the original civil war. Trump would use the violence as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act and assume the “total control” that Roger Stone suggested.

The only reason why I believe this is possible is Russia wants to destroy the United States and if they’re not going to shoot their shot in 2020, when are they going to? So, it makes sense that they would pull the trigger on their ability to fuck directly with our election systems. All the conditions are there for them to do just that. Trump is a Russian agent. The entire Republican edifice is complicit in this.

I don’t want any violence, but elections are a game of expectations. If it becomes clear that Biden won on a strictly political level and yet our tyrannical moron autocrat wins not only because the Russians fucked with our election systems but SCOTUS abided by this act, then, well, all bets are off.

But, who knows, it’s possible we’ll just get a lot of angry Tik-Tok videos if this nightmare scenario happened. Things would have to get pretty bad for The New York Times to admit that, yes, in fact, a coup was taking place.

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.

The Big Ugly: What I Might Be Getting Wrong About Trump’s Coming ‘Very American Coup’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My hysterical, dystopian predictions are almost always wrong. And, yet, given that Trump is fucking bonkers and a caged rat at this point, I have a feeling I’m not going to be too far off — Trump is never leaving office for any reason because autocrats never “lose.”

But, for the sake of argument, let’s think about what I might be getting wrong. Is it possible Trump might actually be a normal human being and leave office should he lose the 2020 election?

First — no. This is never happening.

But, again, I’m not perfect. I keep getting things wrong. So, what could possibly happen that might cause Trump to actually not do A Very American Coup with the help his hatchet man Barr?

Well, I think one thing that would have to happen is the result be massive. Trump would really have to fucking lose in such a massive landslide that it was obvious he had lost the Mandate of Heaven. I just don’t see this happening because the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany.

And, yet, I don’t know that that is going to happen — even though all evidence suggests it will.

So, let’s assume for some weird reason Trump actually does, in fact, lose the election. Then what? I think TrumpBarr will do exactly what they would do, anyway — sue. They will sue any obstacle to them staying in power, even to the point of causing the country to implode (The Big Ugly.) The more difficult it is for them to stay in power, the more radical they will become. The only difference might be the context — if it’s a real blowout, it might be a teeny-tiny bit more difficult for SCOTUS to rule in his favor or Republicans to suck his cock. Lulz, who am I kidding. Of course, even if the country is about to fucking implode, SCOTUS will rule in Trump’s favor and Republicans will cling as tight to House Trump as they absolutely can. I wish I was wrong on that one. But I’m note. The Big Ugly would happen in that case, no matter what.

But am I being too dystopian? I don’t think so, but maybe? I guess if Trump actually does lose — and admits it — what he’ll do is go completely bonkers for three months. He will fire anyone he doesn’t like just out of spite. The lame duck Senate will approve any number of surreal nominations. Trump will pardon Jared’s dad, Flynn, and who knows, maybe himself.

The thing about Trump is he’s so unstable and unpredictable that I have a tendency to assume the absolute worst. It could be that Trump will just continue to be his usual bonkers self and any “salting the earth” will be in his usual half-assed incompetent fashion. That really is our best case scenario at this point.

Also of note is it’s not like Trump won’t still have a Twitter account and a golden Rolodex to flip through whenever he wants to cause mischief. He knows all our secrets and he’s going to be desperate for cash.

Or, put another way, even under the best of scenarios, we’re absolutely fucked as long as Trump is alive and in debt. Good luck, folks.

The Big Ugly: TrumpBarr Will Have To Be Physically Dragged From The White House If They Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The old Benjamin Wittes quip is Trump is “malevolence mitigated by incompetence.” Another saw is “autocrats never lose.” By every possible metric, it seems as though Trump, through Barr, is going to stay in power by any means necessary even if there is a Biden landslide.

TrumpBarr would rather destroy the whole country than have Trump risk criminal exposure once he is out of office. Or, put another way, the only way Trump is leaving office should he lose is not only will he salt the earth on his way out, he’s going to demand some sort of promise about not being prosecuted once he’s no longer president.

I would even suggest he might frogwalk Obama between November and January to drive the point across — if you think me indicting Obama was bad, just wait until you try to do it to ME.

The issue is — Trump is an avatar for some seriously fucked up issue in American society. He’s like political herpes. Now that we have him, he ain’t going anywhere. Or, at least, his influence in government isn’t going anywhere. I think Trump is literally going to stay in office for the rest of his life, but that may be overstating the issue.

It could be that we’re simply in A New Era and Trump will be like Reagan was — there was life before the Reagan Revolution and life after it. I’m not one of those people who thinks Republicans will run away from Trump. To the contrary, Trump will be the new heart and soul of the Republican Party. Everything will be relative to him, just like it used to be everything was relative to Reagan.

Or, put yet another way, while I keep hearing people talk about how “fragile” our democracy is, I think we’re no longer a democracy. We’re now, officially, an autocratic managed democracy and the only possible way we have some sort of House Trump Interregnum is how God-awful incompetence Trump is at being an autocrat.

As such, we might have a few years of respite from autocracy, but soon enough, a new autocrat will take power and that will be that. It will be Trumpism without Trump. And I still think Trump will be like a reverse Gorbachev. Instead of bringing freedom to a country, Trump will strangle it.

Though I will note that while I’m often wrong, something really big has to happen for Trump to simply never leave office. TrumpBarr will use the same media narrative management techniques they used with The Mueller Report. The more difficult is for them to do this, the more radical they will become to the point that it’s rather brazen that A Very American Coup is taking place.

In the end, we may have to go through what I call The Big Ugly. And there are no assurances that the Good Guys will win if that happens.

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, two facts are heading towards each other. On one hand, it definitely seems as though we may see unprecedented numbers of people vote in this election. On the other hand — autocrats never lose.

Add to this my personal belief that Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German, and you have the makings of a massive clusterfuck — The Big Ugly.

Or, put another way, come January 20th, 2021, Trump is getting sworn in for a second term, no matter what. Even if it means we have dueling swearing in ceremonies and the country implodes. Even if Trump loses in a landslide, he’s going to sue everything and everyone in the way of his victory and he will win 5-4 or 6-3 at SCOTUS.

This is going to happen even if a sizable chunk of the Republican Establishment publically tells Trump to cool it and to leave office.

It’s just not going to happen.

I say this because Trump knows he’s probably got a real risk of being indicted if he ever leaves office. And the Russians have him by the short ones, so he has every reason to destroy the country before leaving office. And he has Bill Barr to make sure all this troubles go away.

The more difficult it becomes for TrumpBarr to stay in power, the more radical they will become. We could very well have A Very American Coup before it’s over with to the point that it’s seen as something of a political 9/11 — not even The New York Times will be able to “both sides” this — they’re going to have to admit that a coup is taking place.

The question, of course, is what the reaction of the average person will be to this Very American Coup. There’s something of a spectrum in my opinion — either there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth on Twitter but nothing really happens i the real world, or we careening towards The Big Ugly of some sort of civil war / revolution.

Of course, there is the “Trump Salts The Earth” scenario where Trump, after quickly bringing the country to the edge of The Big Ugly abruptly gives up, but tries to destroy as much as possible on his way out. He fires people, he pardons people — including himself! Or he won’t leave office unless he can quit and get Pence to pardon him.

The darkest scenario is Trump holds up in the White House and just rants on Twitter all day and we have to physically remove him from the Oval Office while a mob of angry MAGA shitheads surround the building to defend the Dear Leader.

The Bad Guys Are Going To Win


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see any way that the bad guys of TrumpBarr don’t win. Even though I’m very pleased with how many people are voting right now, in the end, it won’t matter — TrumpBarr will likely nationalize the National Guard across the country Election Night and stop voting “until SCOTUS can figure things out.”

Or whatever.

We’re too far down the road to tyranny. In fact, we’re IN tyranny. Autocrats never lose. There’s going to be A Very American Coup and because we can’t get the conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to care, it’s going to be successful. There may be some violence and threats of secession, but in the end, nothing will happen.

It will all be decided at SCOTUS and it will just be a more extreme version of 2000. I just don’t see any other outcome. Even if there was a landslide, you have to actually count the votes, you know. TrumpBarr will either never let that happen, or they’re just going to sue everything and everyone to SCOTUS and win there.

Darkness is here. We’re in a dystopia. Get out of the country while you still can. Proles like me will just have to make do as best we can. I’ll be snatch off the street or pushed out a window by ICE soon enough. Maybe sent to a re-education came and die there. Who knows.

The only way that doesn’t happen is if people are willing to risk things important to them in the real world. I just don’t see that happening. And if they do, Qanon or whomever will respond in kind and the whole country will implode.

If that happens, then TrumpBarr uses the Insurrection Act from here on out. Maybe there will be a dystopian Second Reconstruction. Autocrats never fucking lose.

Good luck