Tag: Second American Civil War

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.

Coup Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still don’t know exactly how it’s going to happen, but very soon Trump is mysteriously going to “not lose” the 2020 Election and all hell is going to break loose. All the miscalculations, assumptions, infrastructure and momentum are there for it to happen any moment now.

It may take a little bit longer than I expect for logistical reasons, but in the end the result will be the same: Trump will “not lose.”

In quick succession, we can expect Biden supporters to (rightfully) flip the fuck out. And in just as quick succession, Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act. He will have the legal right to order the U.S. Military to knock heads. Then 50% of the population will think a coup is happening (it will be) and 50% of the population will relieved that the Dear Leader will stay in office to protect them from being canceled by AOC+3. The same talking points that were used against the protestors in Portland will be used at this point, as well. The Right will chant “law and order” and as such, well, we’re all very much fucked.

As I have said repeatedly in the past, my prediction is that at this point, political violence across the country will be such that there will be significant consolidation of Red and Blue States with massive numbers of domestic political refugees springing up. We can expect a rather abrupt purging of the media as well, probably after angry New Yorkers storm Trump Tower and or Fox News.

Once the purge of the media takes place there will be a moment of truth for a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people who vote for Trump because they feel they have no alterative. I refuse to give them the benefit of the doubt, however, so we’re just going to have to assume whatever happens is going to be a 50/50 split.

Also at this point, because of the dynamics of such historic events, a number of people’s lives will be radically changed forever. Heros will be made and cowards will be shamed, as I like to say. Once people who thrive in stability (read: normal successful people) are faced with a crisis beyond their imagination and ability to process, they may very well just choke. They will panic because they simply don’t do well in a crisis.

We can also expect the U.S. Military to begin to implode. Even though Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act allows him to be a tyrant legally, there may be large numbers of the military who just can’t kill innocent civilians no matter the reason and they will join up with the provisional Blue State government.

I honestly can’t came out the endgame of this shitshow. The two sides may be so equally matched that it’s a draw and the United States splits into two countries — Trumplandia and Bluedoian (or whatever.) Or it could be that because of unexpected leadership and, well, dumb luck — just like in the original Civil War — the Blue States will win and renew the American Covenant. Or, MAGA wins and they start murdering people like me in cold blood.

If you want to get really dark about such things — we may be in for about four years (the usual length of a major war) of a massive clusterfuck. WMD may be used by both sides on each other. Foreign powers may get involved in some way. WW3 may happen. The entire political geography of North America may be re-drawn.

But one thing is for sure — we’re in a new era. All bets are off. It’s up to us what happens next.

How Soon Is Now? Twitter Liberals Need To Get Woke to A Possible Brewing Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter liberals right now are completely fucking useless. They are so busy scoring points on Twitter and preening about their latest piece in The Atlantic that they are quaintly assuming the traditional rules of politics apply to the shitshow brewing right now.


Sadly, 50% of the population knows what is obvious: politics is dead in America right now. We’ve left the realm of politics and now we are dealing with realpolitik. Things like can we keep California in the Union, can Blue State governors call up militia legally are the things we have to worry about now. This sounds hysterical, I know. And I will be so grateful if I’m proven wrong. I have a novel to finish, afterall.

You now who Twitter liberals remind me of? Horace Greeley. He was the publisher of The New York Tribune and ran for president (then died) in 1872. He was famous for saying in 1861, “Wayward sisters, part in peace.” He was the OG Internet crank, too. He was a real pain in the but for Lincoln for a variety of reasons.

Anyway, just like Greeley, Twitter liberals are completely clueless about what’s going on and how to deal with it. There are no assurances the Good Guys will win. In fact, we may have a pretty dystopian future ahead of us for the next, well, long time. About 50% of the population is cool with autocracy and spare me your “oh, that would never happen.”

Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though 2020 is it — about 50 years of macro trends are reaching a tipping point, just as I have repeatedly written on this blog.

This could be it. This could be the end of the United States’ First Republic. I have no idea what is going to happen. There’s no obvious endgame. No fate but what we make, as they say at the end of Terminator 2.

It Appears Possible Some Sort of Coup Is About To Occur


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are dark things afoot. And it’s still very possible that I’m completely misunderstanding the exact nature of some of the events of the last 24 hours. But there’s a non-zero chance that I have it just about right — some sort of coup is being plotted by Republicans.

My current theory is they’re going to attack certification of the votes. Through media narrative management, they want Republicans in crucial states to do a form of “jury nullification.” They just won’t certify the vote because fuck you, lib. The point of this would be to throw it to SCOTUS in some manner where they know they will win — Trump doesn’t lose.

Now, remember, while Republicans really don’t give a fuck what you think, this would not happen in a political vacuum. The moment they allowed the media to call the election, they made their job far more difficult — but not impossible. But the likelihood that the average person who doesn’t really think about politics might sit up and take notice of this coup is far more likely with the election called.

Or put another way, Barr thinks the difference between his victory with the Mueller Report and stealing the election is simply a matter of degree. That, at least, may be his thinking going into this. He has SCOTUS and he has the entire Republican Party. Having those two institutions going into a coup such as this puts him on safe enough ground that he will feel comfortable striking.

And, really, if there is any reaction to this coup, it’s the perfect excuse for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act. That would give him the legal ability to give the military orders that might otherwise be illegal.

All of that is just one of a variety of different possible coup scenarios. We also have the possibility that if they fail at certification, they directly attack the Electors on a personal level.

I have said for some time now that every step they fail to successfully attack or corrupt will lead TrumpBarr to grow more radical. Remember, TrumpBarr has the total support of just under 50% of the population. The same logic that allowed them to rush the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett is the same logic that will cause them to stage such a coup (or something like it.)

All I know is things could get violent. Really violent. We could have dueling presidents with equal claim to the right to tell the military what to do. There may be a secession crisis. Blue States, out of desperation may call up their own militias for the specific purpose of defending themselves from the U.S. Military. Or, the U.S. Military itself could, in fact, implode so they won’t even be able to make a decision.

What’s more, the U.S. Military is the backbone of the post World War 2 liberal order. If it buckles, then you could see a number of regional wars grow hot in something that might be marketed as World War 3.

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But all of this is something to think about. There’s no obvious endgame. This wouldn’t be a video game. Real people with real lives would die. And you thought COVID19 was bad, just wait until there’s absolutely no food at the grocery store because you live in a Blue State (or Red State) and you’re being blockaded.

Again, I hope I’m wrong. Trump is really incompetent, but he definitely seems to be waking up from the shock of losing the election. And, as we know, autocrats never lose.

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.

The Coming Elector Intimidation Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, TrumpBarr blew it when they didn’t strike before the media called the election. That was a political act and, as such, they were dealt a significant blow.

So now we enter the a far more dangerous moment post – election when House Trump begins its extra-political attempts to stay in power. I keep saying that autocrats never lose and, well, this isn’t over yet. But the issue is — the only reason why Trump got himself into this situation is he’s so deranged and incompetent that he didn’t lay the groundwork to “not lose” in a far less conspicuous manner.

Two things stick out for me.

One is, this has the same dynamic as the Whitewater investigation that ultimately led to Bill Clinton being impeached. It’s building. It’s happening in the far right’s bullshit echochamber, but it’s building. And just like they say someone goes bankrupt “gradually then all at once,” so, too, is this crisis going to build and then pop out in a rather astonishing fashion.

The other is, what’s going on right now is exactly what happened in 2016, only this time there’s an actual chance this stress test on the Constitution might work, and, as such, cause significant political violence. Trump has said that he won’t leave power until he’s exhausted every possible option. What he means by that is, every step along the way to Biden becoming president, he’s going to attack and corrupt the process in a hysterical, vicious manner.

So, it seems pretty obvious that as I have long said, we’re going to have an Elector Crisis. As the shock wears off and MAGA begins to think about its options, Electors — the weakest link in the Constitution — will begin to grow in significance. They will whip themselves into a crazed frenzy at the idea that if they can just get enough faithless Electors they can win. Probably what will happen is some MAGA shithead is going to kill an Elector as a reminder to them what they should do. Then, to make matters worse, Trump will dox them all on Twitter and we’re going to have a massive, existential crisis as we all worry about what the Electoral College is going to do. To the point that all 300 million of us know the personalities of the Electors way, way, more well than we ever possible imagine.

But hopefully this will pass and we’ll go to whatever the next step in the process is and Trump will attack THAT. Then, probably, he probably is going to fucking lose his mind and salt the earth in a rather dramatic fashion. He may also pardon himself and flee the country.

In a sense, that’s a best case scenario.

The worse case scenario is there’s a civil war / revolution as Trump grows so radical that he simply seizes “total control’ and fuck you, lib. If that happens, I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be. Though I have said the dead hand of history would suggest Trump will win and we’re all fucked.

But I was wrong before — because Trump is too incompetent to be an effective autocrat — and so it’s possible we’re going to have a civil war / revolution and in the end, after a lot of needless, tragic deaths, things will go back to “normal” in some way. But the whole thing is going to suck so bad.

Just like with all such shitty historical situations, we will give it value and a narrative after the fact in an effort to make ourselves feel better for what we did to ourselves.

I Have Every Reason To Believe Trump Is Going To Destroy The United States Via A Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s some serious silence going on. Republicans aren’t acting like they accept that Trump lost. And the infrastructure exists for TrumpBarr to stage an attempted court coup. All that has to happen is just one of their bullshit lawsuits go to SCOTUS and successfully narrow or redefine what a “legal ballot” is and, well, that’s it — a coup happens and then a civil war or revolution.

As an aside, it’s darkly humorous how many people from Red States — especially Southern Red States — show up in my Webstats whenever I rant about the possibility of the United States descending into civil war. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of Red State people are actually looking forward to a civil war. Why this would be the case is beyond me. As I have repeatedly ranted about — Blue States (once they get their act together) are in a far better military position than Red States.

But anyway, the point is — we are now potentially living through a 2020 version of what happened immediately after Lincoln won the 1860 election. Southern (Red) States are in shock. They never expected Biden — or Lincoln — to win and now they’re weighing their options.

Republicans are so blinded by ideology and negative polarization that they are barreling towards “catching the car” in the courts with total disregard to what happens if they are successful. Now that the election has been called, they’ve lost an enormous political advantage. They blew it. If they had struck before the election was called, then they probably would have had a 50-50 shot of “not losing” the election.

But now, if they strike and win in the courts, things are going to get very violent, very quickly. So violent that Trump will be looked back upon as the man personally responsible for the destruction of the American First Republic. The country will implode into civil war and or revolution and there will be no going back. And, in fact, there’s a chance that when all is said and done there will be two nations — Trumplandia and the rump United States.

It’s going to be horrific if it any of this happens. I’m notorious for being wrong of late, but Trump is a deranged moronic fascist autocrat with the entire Republican Party willing to back him up no matter what. They just don’t care. They want as much power as they can possibly obtain and if that means destroying any semblance of democracy in America, then cry more lib.

Really, the reason why I’m growing so nervous is the silence of the Republican Party. This is not normal. A series of things have to happen before Biden is sworn in, so if it’s not attacking and corrupting the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be Trump doxing the human Electors who will actually vote for he or Biden.

He will “joke” that they need to “respect the 2nd Amendment” and before you know it, mobs of MAGA fucktards show up at their homes and threaten to kill their family if they don’t change their vote and vote for Trump.

I’m not kidding. This may very well happen.

Autocrats never lose, as they say. I will suggest, however, that when the history of the Second American Republic is written, the fact that we finally called the election may be of far more historical significance than we realize right now.

‘Legal’ Votes & A Potential Court Coup


Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — this is nothing more than me attempting to make concrete my lingering abstract fears that since “autocrats never lose,” TrumpBarr will somehow stage a coup in the courts.

Republicans have every reason to believe they will be successful, even though at this late date if they were, they pretty much would cause a civil war or a revolution. The reason is — they’ve lost politically. So any extra-political attempt on their part to win the election would be seen, rightfully, as nothing less than a coup.

But they were willing to rush the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett for this very reason. They honestly no longer believe in liberal democracy and at this point see it as just an obstacle. There’s a reason why most of the Republican Party has been quiet about the political win of Biden — they are seriously willing to attempt to win the election in the courts.

In fact, I would suggest that the only thing standing in the way of them achieving that goal (at least initially) is Trump is a very incompetent moron. But this is what they’re going to do — they’re going to attack the election from the “legal vote” point of view. They want SCOTUS to redefine what a “legal” vote is to such an extent that should their court coup be successful, they can use it as a talking point after the fact.

They will tell 48% of the electorate that listens to them that we’re not a democracy, we’re a Constitutional Republic and, as such, “legally” Trump is president and fuck you libs. The thing Republicans are wilfully oblivious to is how all of this would not happen in a political vacuum.

There will be severe consequences for everyone involved if they “win” (not lose) the election in the courts. That’s why calling the election was such a crucial step. Biden has won on a political level and, as such, any extra-political actions on the part of TrumpBarr-MAGA-Qanon to facilitate a Trump coup will spark a series of events that Republicans won’t be able to control.

The Big Ugly, as I call it, will happen.

Pretty much the entire country will go tits up and there will be no obvious endgame. There will be significant political violence up to and including something that will be a civil war or revolution.

But Republicans don’t care. They really don’t care. All they see is an opportunity to stay in power. So, they’re willing to go full autocrat to meet those ends.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. But it’s definitely something to think about.

A Very American Coup at This Late Date?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, we can all take a deep breath and relax for a moment. On a political level, we’re officially in a new era — the Biden Era. But it ain’t over yet. We have three months of not only Trump having zero accountability, but his continued craven desire to stay in office and an entire Republican Party willing to facilitate those desires.

We’ve officially gone past the point of no return — any extra-political attempt on the part of Trump to stay in power will be seen for what it is: a coup. Or, put another way, while Republicans have shown a willingness to destroy every aspect of our liberal democracy to stay in power if they start fucking with the election at this late date there will be severe, historical political consequences. Maybe even existential for the modern Republican Party.

There are plenty — plenty — absolute worst case scenarios one could imagine in the coming days. Everything from the Republicans figuring out a way to get SCOTUS to define “legal” votes so narrowly that Trump “wins” (doesn’t lose) to Trump doxing individual Electors on Twitter. The list goes on.

I think the thing we have to really appreciate is Trump is in shock right now. And once that shock wears off, he may freak the fuck out and go full autocrat on us in an effort to stay in power no matter what. I thought he might have the wherewithal to do that before the election was officially called, but I guess we were lucky. His incompetent delusional nature was simply stronger than his autocratic nature.

So, in a sense, relative to what a more competent autocrat would do — he blew it.

But once the shock wears off, it’s very possible Trump will go full autocrat with the full support of Interior Minister Barr. He really could dox individual Electors on Twitter in hopes of getting them to vote for him. That could really happen. Or he might offer to bribe them. I mean, the man has absolutely no accountability at this point, what we going to do? Impeach him? Use the 25 Amendment? All he — and the Republican Party — cares about is power.

Once he is sworn in again — no matter how he gets to do it — I doubt there would be enough votes to convict him in the Senate. Let that sink in for a moment.

Yet I, to date, have been proven very, very wrong. So wrong, in fact, that you probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say about modern politics. I have, however, repeatedly said that all my pontificating is simply my very conspicuous way of making my abstract fears concrete and, as such, more manageable

It’s possible that Trump will fold and everything will work out. But I am concerned at the silence of the vast majority of the Republican Party. It’s as if they’re waiting to see what Trump does. If he goes the full autocrat route, they are going to fully support him and, as such a coup then civil war is almost certain to happen.

We’ve just gone too far. Any attempt to change the definition of “legal” votes by the Republicans at SCOTUS will probably be successful. But as they say, what happens when the dog catches the car? The same thing would happen to Republicans — they would get what they wanted, but they would get what they wanted. The cost of “catching the car” might on a immediate level make them happy, but almost immediately they would face a violent reaction.

I would go so far as to say the U.S. Military might weigh the politics of the situation and tell the Republicans to fuck off. But that’s really pushing it. I have no idea. If Republicans staged a coup in the courts (or the Electoral College) I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be.

Post-Election Night 2020 Observations


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

1. The Election Needs To Be Called NOW
Every moment the media narrative leaves any question about who the president is going to be, Trump gains in strength. So, in the end, when there’s a coup, that’s the thing we look back upon with regret.
2. Violence Is Coming
No matter who wins or when we call the election, there is going to be political violence, probably a lot of it. So much so that Trump will get his long-sought after Reichstag Fire. All we can do at this point is just try to manage what our reaction to it is.
3. We’re Not Prepared
The hard it is for TrumpBarr to use media narrative management to stay in office, the more insane TrumpBarr will become. My guess is before it’s over with, Trump is going to dox Electors on Twitter in hopes of intimidating them into voting for him.
4. Our Fate Is In Trump’s Hands
Trump has not only his fate — but the fate of the United States and potentially the entire human race in his hands at this point. He could single-handedly destroy the United States and, as such, destroy the post-World War 2 liberal order and cause, well, the end of the human race
5. Expect The Unexpected
Between now and January 20th, we’re likely to see a number of significant holy shit moments in quick succession. Everything from a coup, to a counter-coup to Trump fleeing the country to Biden being arrested by FBI Director Rudy. All I can say is it’s up to us what happens.