Tag: Second American Civil War

Apocalypse & How: Various #TrumpCoup Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. Trump Loses?
    This is the least likely scenario because autocrats never lose. Something, most likely the Russians — is going to step in and cause him to “win.” But if he does lose in a manner that not even he can deny (even though he will try) he will salt the earth on the way out in an effort to establish a “Trump Deep State.” He’s already destroyed much of the executive branch for a generation, he’s such a greedy moron he’s going to take it to the next level for the three months he has zero accountability. He will pardon himself. Or name Rudy to head the FBI and indict Biden so he can use it as a negotiating tactic to prevent his own indictment once he’s out of office.
  2. Trump Loses…But Wins.
    In this scenario, Trump loses and sulks for a few days. He pops out with the names and home addresses of all the Biden Electors and sicks MAGA-Qanon on them as human beings. Through sheer intimidation, Trump wins in the Electoral College and fuck you. This wouldn’t happen in a vacuum, of course, but even then, I find any idea that Republicans wouldn’t just sit back and laugh dubious.
  3. Trump Loses….But Wins…Then Loses
    In this scenario, Trump loses initially, then through post-election shenanigans wins, only to be impeached the moment he is sworn in. The Senate (if it’s flipped) holds a very long, very excruciating impeachment trial of both Trump and Pence (with witnesses!) and because Nancy Pelosi stepped aside to so Democrats could name Biden Speaker of the House, once Trump and Pence are convicted because the country is on the cusp of a very violent implosion, Biden becomes president. Though, to be fair, TrumpBarr would challenge the Presidential Succession Act at SCOTUS and win there (duh) so we could endup with someone like a President Pompeo or President Barr. This, too, would not happen in a political vacuum, so that might be the final thing that tips the country into a shooting war. Good times!
  4. Trump Loses, But Won’t Leave
    This is talked about a lot and I think it has some validity. This one hinges on how sane Trump might — or might not — be should he lose despite Russia having every reason — and opportunity — to change votes in battleground states so he “wins.” If Trump finally freaks the fuck out and his criminality fuses with his insanity, then the might just hold up in the White House and not leave. He might do some very deranged things for three months and Republicans will continue to facilitate whatever it is he wants them to do. In the end, Federal marshals have to physically remove him from a White House that’s surrounded by MAGA-Qanon people. There will be a Battle For The White House.
  5. Trump “Wins” California
    In this scenario, things are tight enough on Election Night that Trump declares victory and demands SCOTUS end all vote counting at Midnight. They agree (duh) and so few votes have been counted in major states like California that he “wins” the state. If there any “problems,” TrumpBarr invoke the Insurrection Act and even though even The New York Times admits a coup is taking place, lulz, nothing really happens. But along the way Trump Tower is attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers and this serves as TrumpBarr’s “Reichstag Fire.”
  6. 2016 Redux
    In this scenario, Trump mysteriously wins exactly the way he did in 2016. The Russians hack directly into our election systems and fuck you. They have already said they want an American Civil War — “the worse the better” — and that Trump is “their guy.” Why on earth would they not change votes if they have the ability? What’s worse, even if we find out, the Republicans Party is so craven, so traitorous that they would eagerly bounce any such controversy to SCOTUS where they win (duh.) This, too, would not happen in a political vacuum and it might be the thing that causes the country to descend into massive political violence.

#TrumpCoup: If All Else Fails, Trump Is Going To Dox Electors


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is very difficult to predict. Which, to some extent, is his secret power. You just never know if he’s going to fold in a rather unexpected, dramatic fashion, or if he’s going to do some autocratic thing. He vacillates wildly between these two things.

What I think might happen is should all his efforts to steal the election otherwise fail him, he is going after the physical human beings that make up the Electoral College. I could easily see him sulking for 24 to 48 hours if Biden won in some sort of landslide (even under the autocratic conditions Trump has established ) and then popping out on Twitter with the names and addresses of all the Democrat Electors.

MAGA-Qanon rushes to their homes and threatens their lives if they don’t vote for Trump. Trump could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy his “interim” replacement. They Electors are left out to dry on this front because of this. Trump could even use the violence that his own followers are then doing as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act.

But again, Trump is so bonker and unpredictable that I honestly don’t know which direction he’s going to go. I do, however, suspect he’s going to pardon himself. Or somehow get some assurance he won’t be charged with anything as a prerequisite for physically leaving the White House.

If he really wanted to be destructive, he could abscond from the White House on Marine One hand settle somewhere like, say, Alabama to incite a real, honest to God civil war.

American Has Entered The Most Severe Political Crisis Since 1860


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have said before, the biggest screw ups in history occur when one side makes a strategic miscalculation. Be it the American South in 1860 or the Germans in 1914, time and again history has shown that major historical events occur when one side believes that after a cost-benefit-analysis that the cost of achieving their goals is worth it.

With the American Civil war in particular, the South was probably — in the beginning — safe in their assumption that the North would say “wayward sisters, part in peace” and that would be that. It was only because of the leadership of Lincoln and his decision in late 1862 to make freeing the slaves a war aim that the tide turned.

So, if you look at America 2020, at the moment, MAGA-Qanon is reasonably safe in assuming that they can stage something akin to a coup in the courts and, lulz, nothing of note will happen. In fact, even I, at this point, believe they are right. I just don’t see “Blue America” being willing to risk “their lives and scared honor” in the real world in the manner necessary to save the Union as currently conceived. If all else fails, TrumpBarr will used the Insurrection Act and that, as they say, will be that.

And, yet, that hasn’t happened yet. It’s at least possible that while MAGA-Qanon will initially succeed in their efforts to steal the 2020 election via some sort of Very American Coup, that the conditions are such that the country implodes in a rather unexpected fashion. But let me be very clear — only in hindsight would we give The Big Ugly value or a narrative. While any putative “Second American Civil War” or “Second American Revolution” was taking place it would suck on a day-to-day basis and be a huge fucking tragedy that we will ultimately all regret we had to go through, no matter the ultimate endgame.

Such is the nature of such events.

I too often fall into the trap of giving The Big Ugly some sort of narrative. The reason why events like the Civil War, or WW1 or WW2 have such potency for millions of people is they’re scary as hell and pose an existential threat to how people view themselves and their nation.

So, in the end MAGA-Qanon could win and we devolve into something rather dystopian. There would be no assurances as events unfolded that the good guys will win. If you asked a person in 1942 what the outcome of the war was going to be, they probably would say the Axis Powers were going to win.

No person under the age of, say, 80 or so, has lived during through a prolonged crisis where there are battles that are won or lost that don’t really give you any immediate indication of how the war itself is going to endup. Put that same dynamic not in Europe or Asia but in the United States itself and we’re all in for a situation we definitely don’t want to go through.

All I’m saying is — the conditions are there for something not seen in the United States since the Civil War. Good luck.

The Taking Of Trump Tower


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not advocating any of this. And, in all honesty, my predictive abilities have taken a big hit recently — I was absolutely sure a Hunter Biden deep fake was going to pop out on Friday and, lulz, no. (At least so far.)

But if you assume The Big Ugly is going to happen because, lulz, Republicans hate democracy, brown people and women, then, well, there’s one particular place that seems a prime spot for its beginning: Trump Tower in NYC.

If such a thing was to happen, it would likely happen in the context of a massive freakout by New Yorkers as it became obvious that their most hated native son was in the process of staging A Very American Coup. They would also likely storm the HQ of FOX News to get their point across. But what better way to put a hurting on House Trump than storm their personal version of Versaille. Now, I’m definitely not advocating this — real people would get hurt if an angry mob stormed Trump Tower.

This would be counter-productive for a number of reasons, chief among them being Trump would likely use the Insurrection Act to effectively put New York City under martial law.

The main issue is that the United States — otherwise the most stable and powerful nation in the world — is on the cusp of implosion because or politics is so absolutely fucked up that Republicans would rather destroy the country than give up power. Some of their behavior if you read about it in a history book would make you go, “Yep, that country was going to have a revolution.”

There are just so many known unknowns. All I know is you can’t have one of your major political parties acting like the Republican Party is right now without significant election-related instability.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. It would be a pleasant surprise if we had a self-evident Biden landslide and I can go back to working on my novel.

The Big Ugly: The Conditions Exist For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we lurch towards Election Day, it’s becoming ever more apparent than at least on the basis of attitude of the two sides the conditions for significant political violence exists. On one hand, the Republicans are looking towards Amy Coney Barrett to be their failsafe in case the election is close enough that anything goes to SCOTUS. On the other hand, Democrats are pumped that on a political level, Biden may be on the cusp of a landslide.

Republicans are so craven — and so blinded by ideology — that they aren’t even factoring in the consequences of their anti-democratic behavior should they manage to pull it off. All they care about is a Trump victory and fuck you. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where they get what they want: Trump wins, but that’s just the beginning of the crisis.

If Biden wins a massive landslide in the popular vote but because of the legal ratfucking of the Republican Party he doesn’t legally become president, we would be in uncharted territory.

Now, the fix to this problem is a Biden victory that is so enormous that it has some wiggle room to handle the very legal ratfucking I mentioned. We have to accept that Amy Coney Barrett is going to hand the election to Trump if that becomes an issue. The solution is for her not to be given the option.

Of course, if there is a Biden landslide, we would likely have to deal with significant political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who don’t see anyone but Trump as legitimate. Trump could pounce on such violence as something of a Reichstag Fire and assume the “total control” Roger Stone believes he should do, even if the violence was caused by his own supporters.

The point is — autocrats never lose. Never. I haven’t even mentioned the likelihood that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems to throw the election to Trump. Even if we discover this, it’s very likely the whole thing goes to SCOTUS…where Amy Coney Barrett will vote for Trump.

All in all, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. I don’t see how we get through the next few months without some sort of massive political violence to the extent that we see an enormous amount of domestic political refugees.

The only way that doesn’t happen is a massive Biden win combined with Trump simply giving up. He will likely salt the earth on the way out, however. He’s going to fire anyone he doesn’t like and pardon anyone he feels he needs to in order to save his sorry ass — including himself!



The Dead Hand Of History Suggests Either Trump ‘Doesn’t Lose’ Or The Country Implodes After The Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The weird thing about the modern era, is I’ve read enough history books to know some sense of how they would describe what’s going on around us — our Republic is becoming an empire. It definitely seems as though one scenario would the United States becomes a semi-monarchial autocratic state with a House Trump that rules the country (poorly) until the Browning of America makes their rule untenable.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. Trump, with the help of the Russians hacking directly into our election systems, will “not lose.” He strangles any semblance of liberal democracy in the United States and whatever’s left is allowed to exist because it’s not a threat. In fits and starts over the next two year or so, Trump accelerates our drive towards autocracy and that’s that. That definitely seems to be the path we’re on right now.

What’s worse, if the Russians somehow allow Biden to win, then we face a different problem — MAGA-Qanon could very well begin to blow shit up and actually start killing people (like me!) out of spite in support of The Dear Leader. They try to sucker punch the center-Left, deliver a knock-out blow. Given that they will have the full authority of the Trump regime on their side, it definitely seems as though they will get away with it.

Of course, Trump is such an incompetent moron, that there’s at least a small chance that even with the legal might of Interior Secretary Bill Barr at his disposal, he’s so ham-handed and brazen in his Very American Coup that the country implodes for no other reason than Trump finally jiggles American self-perception enough that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA finally get woke. That really seems like a liberal fever dream at this point, but who knows.

The 2020 election definitely has a 1860 vibe to it, is all I gotta say. It feels as though the nation is at a crossroads and because MAGA is so insane, if they don’t get what they want, it seems reasonable to assume they’re going to start killing people (like me!) The question, of course, is what our reaction to such behavior will be.

I honestly don’t know.

The Only Way To Save The Republic Is A Biden Landslide


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a very good chance that mysteriously Trump will win the electoral college in exactly the same way he did in 2016. We will all be in shock. We will write it off to all the boat parades or the “shy Trump voter” or whatever. At some point — maybe never — we will learn, however, that the Russians fucked with our election systems and threw election to Trump.

The darkest scenario, of course, is we will learn this happened before the Electors Vote, TrumpBarr lulz it and fight the issue in the courts and Trump STILL “wins” the election because of a 6-3 (5-4?) vote at SCOTUS. In fact, that definitely seems to be the failsafe for Republicans at this point. This are so rabid in their desire to win the election that they are completely oblivious to the political consequences of such behavior that it’s definitely the setup for The Big Ugly of civil war or revolution.

But, even without Russian help, if the election is anywhere close, we’re going to have not a Brooks Brothers Riot, but a Brooks Brothers War. There could be real, unprecedented political violence across the country as it becomes clear that TrumpBarr intends A Very American Coup. They already are suing everything that moves before the election, you can only assume that if they believe they have any — ANY — shot of stealing the election through extra-political means, they will pull that particular trigger.

So, really, the only way we keep the Republic is if somehow the Russians don’t do what I assume they’re going to do and Biden wins in such a massive landslide that it at least grows more difficult for TrumpBarr to pull of A Very American Coup — even though, obviously, they will try anyway.

I just don’t see how the post-election period isn’t one of unprecedented instability and even violence if Biden doesn’t win in a massive landslide. The Republican party simply doesn’t see democracy as valid if it isn’t helping them obtain or maintain power, so, lulz.

‘A Very American Coup:’ Russian Hacking, SCOTUS & A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the conditions are there for a truly nightmarish scenario. Imagine this happens — Trump just barely wins / loses Pennsylvania and or Florida. It’s so close that people begin to wonder how this is possible. Soon enough, we learn that the Russians fucked with our election systems.

Now, logically, one would say, we would figure out who really won — Biden — and then the Electors would vote for him.

But, no, what might happen is this is such a massive clusterfuck that it goes to SCOTUS and Trump wins 6-3 there. This, even though it’s obvious that the Russians were working hand-in-glove with the Trump Campaign to pull this off. I keep saying this would be because of a quid pro quo to remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany, but, lulz.

Of all the nightmare scenarios I’ve come up with, this has got to be the worst. Imagine if the very same thing that allowed Trump to win in 2016 was taken to the next level in the sense that not only did we all know that Trump won with Russian help, but SCOTUS aided and abetted this traitorous plot.

If that didn’t cause significant political violence, I don’t know what would. The country would implode and then a civil war / revolution would happen. Or, at least, we would come the closest we’ve come since the original civil war. Trump would use the violence as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act and assume the “total control” that Roger Stone suggested.

The only reason why I believe this is possible is Russia wants to destroy the United States and if they’re not going to shoot their shot in 2020, when are they going to? So, it makes sense that they would pull the trigger on their ability to fuck directly with our election systems. All the conditions are there for them to do just that. Trump is a Russian agent. The entire Republican edifice is complicit in this.

I don’t want any violence, but elections are a game of expectations. If it becomes clear that Biden won on a strictly political level and yet our tyrannical moron autocrat wins not only because the Russians fucked with our election systems but SCOTUS abided by this act, then, well, all bets are off.

But, who knows, it’s possible we’ll just get a lot of angry Tik-Tok videos if this nightmare scenario happened. Things would have to get pretty bad for The New York Times to admit that, yes, in fact, a coup was taking place.

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.

The Big Ugly: What I Might Be Getting Wrong About Trump’s Coming ‘Very American Coup’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My hysterical, dystopian predictions are almost always wrong. And, yet, given that Trump is fucking bonkers and a caged rat at this point, I have a feeling I’m not going to be too far off — Trump is never leaving office for any reason because autocrats never “lose.”

But, for the sake of argument, let’s think about what I might be getting wrong. Is it possible Trump might actually be a normal human being and leave office should he lose the 2020 election?

First — no. This is never happening.

But, again, I’m not perfect. I keep getting things wrong. So, what could possibly happen that might cause Trump to actually not do A Very American Coup with the help his hatchet man Barr?

Well, I think one thing that would have to happen is the result be massive. Trump would really have to fucking lose in such a massive landslide that it was obvious he had lost the Mandate of Heaven. I just don’t see this happening because the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany.

And, yet, I don’t know that that is going to happen — even though all evidence suggests it will.

So, let’s assume for some weird reason Trump actually does, in fact, lose the election. Then what? I think TrumpBarr will do exactly what they would do, anyway — sue. They will sue any obstacle to them staying in power, even to the point of causing the country to implode (The Big Ugly.) The more difficult it is for them to stay in power, the more radical they will become. The only difference might be the context — if it’s a real blowout, it might be a teeny-tiny bit more difficult for SCOTUS to rule in his favor or Republicans to suck his cock. Lulz, who am I kidding. Of course, even if the country is about to fucking implode, SCOTUS will rule in Trump’s favor and Republicans will cling as tight to House Trump as they absolutely can. I wish I was wrong on that one. But I’m note. The Big Ugly would happen in that case, no matter what.

But am I being too dystopian? I don’t think so, but maybe? I guess if Trump actually does lose — and admits it — what he’ll do is go completely bonkers for three months. He will fire anyone he doesn’t like just out of spite. The lame duck Senate will approve any number of surreal nominations. Trump will pardon Jared’s dad, Flynn, and who knows, maybe himself.

The thing about Trump is he’s so unstable and unpredictable that I have a tendency to assume the absolute worst. It could be that Trump will just continue to be his usual bonkers self and any “salting the earth” will be in his usual half-assed incompetent fashion. That really is our best case scenario at this point.

Also of note is it’s not like Trump won’t still have a Twitter account and a golden Rolodex to flip through whenever he wants to cause mischief. He knows all our secrets and he’s going to be desperate for cash.

Or, put another way, even under the best of scenarios, we’re absolutely fucked as long as Trump is alive and in debt. Good luck, folks.