Tag: Second American Civil War

‘Legal’ Votes & A Potential Court Coup


Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — this is nothing more than me attempting to make concrete my lingering abstract fears that since “autocrats never lose,” TrumpBarr will somehow stage a coup in the courts.

Republicans have every reason to believe they will be successful, even though at this late date if they were, they pretty much would cause a civil war or a revolution. The reason is — they’ve lost politically. So any extra-political attempt on their part to win the election would be seen, rightfully, as nothing less than a coup.

But they were willing to rush the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett for this very reason. They honestly no longer believe in liberal democracy and at this point see it as just an obstacle. There’s a reason why most of the Republican Party has been quiet about the political win of Biden — they are seriously willing to attempt to win the election in the courts.

In fact, I would suggest that the only thing standing in the way of them achieving that goal (at least initially) is Trump is a very incompetent moron. But this is what they’re going to do — they’re going to attack the election from the “legal vote” point of view. They want SCOTUS to redefine what a “legal” vote is to such an extent that should their court coup be successful, they can use it as a talking point after the fact.

They will tell 48% of the electorate that listens to them that we’re not a democracy, we’re a Constitutional Republic and, as such, “legally” Trump is president and fuck you libs. The thing Republicans are wilfully oblivious to is how all of this would not happen in a political vacuum.

There will be severe consequences for everyone involved if they “win” (not lose) the election in the courts. That’s why calling the election was such a crucial step. Biden has won on a political level and, as such, any extra-political actions on the part of TrumpBarr-MAGA-Qanon to facilitate a Trump coup will spark a series of events that Republicans won’t be able to control.

The Big Ugly, as I call it, will happen.

Pretty much the entire country will go tits up and there will be no obvious endgame. There will be significant political violence up to and including something that will be a civil war or revolution.

But Republicans don’t care. They really don’t care. All they see is an opportunity to stay in power. So, they’re willing to go full autocrat to meet those ends.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. But it’s definitely something to think about.

A Very American Coup at This Late Date?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, we can all take a deep breath and relax for a moment. On a political level, we’re officially in a new era — the Biden Era. But it ain’t over yet. We have three months of not only Trump having zero accountability, but his continued craven desire to stay in office and an entire Republican Party willing to facilitate those desires.

We’ve officially gone past the point of no return — any extra-political attempt on the part of Trump to stay in power will be seen for what it is: a coup. Or, put another way, while Republicans have shown a willingness to destroy every aspect of our liberal democracy to stay in power if they start fucking with the election at this late date there will be severe, historical political consequences. Maybe even existential for the modern Republican Party.

There are plenty — plenty — absolute worst case scenarios one could imagine in the coming days. Everything from the Republicans figuring out a way to get SCOTUS to define “legal” votes so narrowly that Trump “wins” (doesn’t lose) to Trump doxing individual Electors on Twitter. The list goes on.

I think the thing we have to really appreciate is Trump is in shock right now. And once that shock wears off, he may freak the fuck out and go full autocrat on us in an effort to stay in power no matter what. I thought he might have the wherewithal to do that before the election was officially called, but I guess we were lucky. His incompetent delusional nature was simply stronger than his autocratic nature.

So, in a sense, relative to what a more competent autocrat would do — he blew it.

But once the shock wears off, it’s very possible Trump will go full autocrat with the full support of Interior Minister Barr. He really could dox individual Electors on Twitter in hopes of getting them to vote for him. That could really happen. Or he might offer to bribe them. I mean, the man has absolutely no accountability at this point, what we going to do? Impeach him? Use the 25 Amendment? All he — and the Republican Party — cares about is power.

Once he is sworn in again — no matter how he gets to do it — I doubt there would be enough votes to convict him in the Senate. Let that sink in for a moment.

Yet I, to date, have been proven very, very wrong. So wrong, in fact, that you probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say about modern politics. I have, however, repeatedly said that all my pontificating is simply my very conspicuous way of making my abstract fears concrete and, as such, more manageable

It’s possible that Trump will fold and everything will work out. But I am concerned at the silence of the vast majority of the Republican Party. It’s as if they’re waiting to see what Trump does. If he goes the full autocrat route, they are going to fully support him and, as such a coup then civil war is almost certain to happen.

We’ve just gone too far. Any attempt to change the definition of “legal” votes by the Republicans at SCOTUS will probably be successful. But as they say, what happens when the dog catches the car? The same thing would happen to Republicans — they would get what they wanted, but they would get what they wanted. The cost of “catching the car” might on a immediate level make them happy, but almost immediately they would face a violent reaction.

I would go so far as to say the U.S. Military might weigh the politics of the situation and tell the Republicans to fuck off. But that’s really pushing it. I have no idea. If Republicans staged a coup in the courts (or the Electoral College) I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be.

Post-Election Night 2020 Observations


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

1. The Election Needs To Be Called NOW
Every moment the media narrative leaves any question about who the president is going to be, Trump gains in strength. So, in the end, when there’s a coup, that’s the thing we look back upon with regret.
2. Violence Is Coming
No matter who wins or when we call the election, there is going to be political violence, probably a lot of it. So much so that Trump will get his long-sought after Reichstag Fire. All we can do at this point is just try to manage what our reaction to it is.
3. We’re Not Prepared
The hard it is for TrumpBarr to use media narrative management to stay in office, the more insane TrumpBarr will become. My guess is before it’s over with, Trump is going to dox Electors on Twitter in hopes of intimidating them into voting for him.
4. Our Fate Is In Trump’s Hands
Trump has not only his fate — but the fate of the United States and potentially the entire human race in his hands at this point. He could single-handedly destroy the United States and, as such, destroy the post-World War 2 liberal order and cause, well, the end of the human race
5. Expect The Unexpected
Between now and January 20th, we’re likely to see a number of significant holy shit moments in quick succession. Everything from a coup, to a counter-coup to Trump fleeing the country to Biden being arrested by FBI Director Rudy. All I can say is it’s up to us what happens.


A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.

Trump Has His Own Fate — & The Fate Of The Nation — In His Hands


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the end of the American Civil War, Gen. Robert E. Lee was given the option of carrying on a guerilla war after Richmond fell. Thankfully, for all of us, he declined.

Well, it definitely seems as though we aren’t going to be so lucky with Trump should he lose. (I still think either the Russians or Barr will make all of this moot and Trump, like all autocrats, will “not lose.”) It’s possible that Trump’s ultimate legacy is he pressed the issue — he went out of his way to incite violence.

So, while under most normal circumstances, we would all be really tense but in the end we would look back and laugh at how hysterical we were, it’s very possible that Trump’s “final piviot” will be the destruction of the United States out of a combination of spite and self-preservation.

There are a number of ways this might happen. One, the most obvious, is he declares victory as early as possible, which is a signal to his supporters to fuck shit up. Or, after sulking a few days, his insanity and his criminality finally fuse in a rather dramatic fashion and he goes out in something of a blaze of glory. He actually becomes transactional in his efforts to destroy the country.

He could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy specifically so people like Obama and Biden (and the entire “Deep State”) are frogwalked in a very public fashion. This, in itself, might be enough to cause a civil war. Or, put another way, Trump could lose in a landslide and start a civil war all on his own because he doesn’t want to go to prison.

It could get so bad that even Republicans begin to grow alarmed, and the whole Big Lie at the center of MAGA’s takeover of the Republican Party is exposed.

And, of course, if that doesn’t work, Trump flies AF1 to Moscow right before Jan. 20th and spills all our secrets to the Russians.

The Big Ugly: America As Political Powder Keg


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So it’s clear that a Federal judge in Texas is going to throw out 100,000 votes Monday morning, lulz, we can’t have Texas turning Blue, now can we? My fear is that such an event could spark significant political violence on the eve of the election, which, in turn would give Trump the excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and directly fuck with the election on election day.

That, in turn, would escalate things and before you know it, the country implodes and The Big Ugly has begun.

It could all devolve very, very quickly.

So quickly, in fact, that there could be several political 9/11s in quick succession. Before we know it, not even the U.S. Military will be spared.

As such, the Russians will have gotten what they wanted — a second American Civil War, “the worse the better.”

I guess for me, the moral of this would be for center-Left people to at least wait until after Election Day to freak the fuck out. But no one listens to me, so there you go.

I wish I could get so drunk for the next few days that I wake up after a bender on Wednesday morning but that plan never works. I always stay way too sober in such stressful situations. It happen in 2016. It’s going to happen in 2020.

The United States Is Careening Towards ‘The Big Ugly’ of Civil War or Revolution


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the Republican Party is going to be the dog that finally caught the car. A lot of anti-democratic trends that have been heading towards each other for the last 50 years are finally beginning to pay dividends for the Republican Party.

They’ve corrupted the judiciary. They will stop at nothing to delegitimize any election they don’t win. The list goes on.

As such, it definitely seems as though Trump could very well “win” because of Biden losses from a death of a thousand cuts. A 100,000 already cast votes here. Another 100,000 legitimate votes there. Add to this the Russians never allowing Trump to lose and a Federal judiciary full of young, hack MAGA judges eager to throw the election to Trump, and well, lulz.

The problem for Republicans is while they will “win’ their victory won’t happen in a political vacuum. While there’s a decent chance that any theft of the 2020 election will be just another 2000 — there’s also a good chance we could experience The Big Ugly. There could be significant political violence if Republicans get what they want.

And, yet, that political violence would have to get pretty severe for Republicans not to just lulz the whole thing. They are so completely by their craven desire to have power that Trump probably would see any political violence — even if it was started by his own followers — as an opportunity to invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.”

The point is — we’ve officially entered the danger zone. America’s political system is so taunt now because of the pressures of the 2020 Election that virtually anything could set off The Big Ugly.

I still think we need to keep looking at New York City. If Trump obviously steals the election, then before dawn breaks places like Trump Tower and FOX New’s HQ may have been gutted. I’m not advocating that, but just giving you a heads up as to how you might have some sense of how bad things may be about to get.

The True Tragedy of The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two major historical events come to mind when I mull how the Trump Era — should it come to a close soon — will be viewed. One is Watergate. Not only was it the crucible through which America entered the modern era, it was all around a big old tragedy.

If anything, Trump has taught us a very crucial lesson about Watergate. We thought Watergate established a gameplan for how a president might actually be removed from office if his or her crimes were bad enough. In fact, Watergate was a very specific event with very specific characters that was not really any sort of gameplan at all. It was simply a fluke.

Or, put another way, it was a construct of the era in which it came out of. People in 1972 – 1974 had some sort of shame. Some sort of sense of honor. Two qualities that absolutely no one in the Trump Administration has.

The point is, however, that nothing was the same after Watergate. The Republican Party became the part of the people who were Nixon deadenders. That core group of people — in the guise of Reagan — would come roaring back in 1980 as part of the Reagan Revolution.

The Reagan Revolution is the other big event that the Trump Era gives us some insight into. The reason why Reagan’s election was so important was many of the problems that would lead to Trump first began to form. The Republican’s obsession with SCOTUS. It’s obsession with cutting taxes and social programs. It’s hatred of anyone voting. The list goes on.

The key issue of this moment in time, however, is how it was a psychological break from the past. The entire country began to take for granted a number of what were previously far Right concepts.

So, here we are in the Trump Era.

It will be the biggest shock of my adult life if not only the Russians let Trump lose, but Trump doesn’t somehow start a civil war just out of spite and a fear of going to prison should he leave office.

But should Trump miraculously leave office and a Biden Administration start, I just don’t see how things snap back into place. Trump isn’t going anywhere. He’s still going to be an ex-president. He’s still going to demand a spotlight and he’s still going to have a Twitter account. What’s more, he’s probably going to salt the earth on the way out the door.

One subtle change, however, the thing that we’re all going to have to deal with, is Trump single handedly radicalized much of the center-Left the way the Obama’s second term radicalized the entire fucking Republican Party. We were sucker punched by Trump’s time in office and so a lot of the native goodwill that many center-Left people might give Republicans simply doesn’t exist anymore.

In a way, both sides are now equally radicalized and suspicious of each other. The only real difference between Republicans and Democrats is the latter actually believes in liberal democrats norms. And Democrats have some sense of shame. Republicans, meanwhile, don’t give a shit. They are so fucking craven, so blinded by ideology that they were more than willing to fucking destroy the whole country if they think it might give them just one more young hack MAGA judge.

But I still just don’t believe Trump is going to lose. He’s an autocrat and autocrats never lose. Never. It’s going to be the Russians. Or SCOTUS. Or some combination of both that allow Trump to “not lose.”

And I just don’t see Americans having it in them to do what would be necessary to force the issue and drive Trump out of office — a General Strike. I believe TrumpBarr will simply grow more radical as necessary, invoke the Insurrection Act and that will be that.

As I keep saying, on a strictly political level, Biden is doing quite well. But Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — and, as such, will never fucking leave office. And if he does leave office, you had better be sure he’s going to demand a pound of political flesh.

So, in the end, even if Trump is out of office, everything will be different. Our expectations have changed. There’s likely to be a Trump Deep State that will aggressively work to bring down the Biden Administration at every turn. The Fox News faux outrage machine will constantly be looking for different ways to recapture the glory of the Trump Era.

Trump will be the Republican Party’s new Reagan. Everything they do, everything they say, everything they believe in will be relative to Trump. They hate democracy and see it only as a means to an end. About half a dozen would-be younger, brighter, more focused autocrats are already chomping at the bit to finish the job Trump has begun.

Remember — even after the disgrace of Watergate, the Republicans just barely lost to Carter in 1976. Barely. It was one of the tightest elections in history. And they came roaring back just six years after Nixon left office in disgrace.

Should Trump physically leave office, we’re probably going to have three to six months to enjoy it before Republicans will shit on it all.

But I still, still will be completely flabbergasted if Trump loses. Too many powerful people — including Trump himself — will fight dirty to ensure Trump stays in power as long as he likes.

Lame Duck Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Using all metrics but one, the United States is about as stable a nation as they come. We have no history of significant political violence. We generally are rather complacent, even under duress. All in all, but for one metric, we’re in pretty good shape.

But then there’s the rot associate with our political system.

Our political system has pretty much ground to a halt. Republicans have embraced minority rule. The center-Left, meanwhile, while extremely divided, has become united for the moment around Joe Biden. With truely dumb speed-confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Republicans definitely give one the impression of finally casing aside any concerns about liberal democracy.

So, under such conditions, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where even if Biden wins in a landslide, TrumpBarr simply refuses to acknowledge it. They challenge every possible aspect of it, knowing they will always win at SCOTUS. Or, they could concede defeat, only to be such massive dickheads because they don’t have any accountability that that, in itself, causes the country to implode.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump, fearing his own possible indictment after he leaves office, fires the current head of the FBI and names Rudy on an interim basis. Rudy frogwalks Biden and TrumpBarr uses it as a negotiating tactic to escape any accountability after he is physically removed from office by Federal marshalls.

I could also imagine a situation where he rather dramatically begins to saber rattle with the DPRK or Iran. Something, anything, that would give him the cover necessary to take “total control” and either not leave office or only leave office with some pretty significant concessions.

Now, as I keep saying, the about Trump is he’s so unstable that you just don’t know. You look at his past behavior — and his repeated statements in the last few days — and you very well come up with a pretty dark scenario. So dark, in fact, that not even a demostrable Biden landslide would be enough to prevent him from causing a civil war.

But is it even within the realm of possibility that an actual “civil war” would take place?

I honestly don’t know. It pretty much boils down to Trump himself. The entire fate of the United States at this point rests on Trump’s personal decision. He could very well lose and be such a monster on his way out that there’s massive political violence, which he uses to take “total control” and that’s how he stays in power.

That, in itself, would escalate the whole clusterfuck and the Russians get the Second American Civil War they want so badly. I keep thinking about any type of second civil war or second revolution and for the moment I have a lot of difficulty imagining how such worse case scenarios would occur.

But let me be clear — The Big Ugly, as I call such things — would not be “cool” it would not be “fun.” It would really, really suck. It would be a tragedy and we would all regret that it happened.

Let’s hope it doesn’t.

I Just Don’t See The Russians Letting Trump Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump is a very valuable investment for the Russians. All they would have to do to protect that investment is change votes in Pennsylvania and Florida just enough to make race as tight as possible — they wouldn’t even have to cause Trump to win.

Trump sues to stop the counting of votes as soon as possible on a national basis. He wins at SCOTUS because it’s now full of MAGA hacks and Trump “doesn’t lose.” What’s more, even if their direct ratfucking of votes was discovered “accidentally on purpose” the Russians would likely get what they wanted — a civil war. Even if we all knew the Russians changed votes, all that has to happen is Rudy to pop out of his crypt on CNN and yell at Chris Cuomo for an hour and that would be that. The Russians already said they want a civil war in the United States — the worse the better. AND they’ve said that Trump is “their guy.”

As such, the Russians allowing Trump to lose would be inexplicable.