Tag: Second American Civil War

Pay Attention, People: Rudy Wants Republicans To Nullify The Election Of Joe Biden On An Institutional Level


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are so very fucked. I’m well aware that I overestimate RudyTrumpBar a lot, but Rudy is using on Republicans the same strategy he has used time and again on the American people over the last 4 years. Rudy doesn’t care about court, he cares about media narrative messaging for one specific group: the Republicans who have it within their power to certify the vote.

And that’s just one of several huge crises we have to suffer through. If the certification crisis doesn’t work, then we have the Elector Intemidation crisis to live through. THEN we have the Great Trump January Freak Out crisis to deal with.

Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never fucking lose.

I’m wrong all the fucking time. But it definitely seems as this point either we stumble into an extreme version of the 2000 election or we have a fucking civil war / revolution. Like, one where real people with real lives — like you and fucking me — die for no Goddamn reason.

The “best” case scenario then is we just have lingering political violence after Trump uses the Insurrection Act to manage the country. Worst fucking case scenario is the country implodes and we have an actual, real life fucking civil war with armies and WMD used, the entire collapse of the global order and WW3.

I’m well aware that this sounds extremely hysterical, but Rudy has made it quite clear what his strategy is — he wants to “shame” Republicans into nullifying the election for our very lazy, very deranged autocrat Mad King.

This is our future. Or, at least, the future Rudy is actively attempting to create. What happens when this “political 9/11” happens is up to us.

All Roads Lead To SCOTUS (& A Coup…Then A Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am often wrong. But here’s what I’m looking at right now. The entire point of the Trump’s legal challenges to the election is to get to SCOTUS. Once it’s at SCOTUS they will win, no matter what.

Then the whole country convulses and a civil war breaks out.

Why anyone would actually WANT such a civil war is beyond me. But we just have way too much time between now and January 20th for SCOTUS to not get involved. There are just too many moving parts that TrumpBarr can fuck with.

I predict we’re going to have a “political 9/11,” very soon where we all wander around in a daze for a few hours as it sinks in that Rudy got SCOTUS to overturn the election. It will be a real “where were you when” type of moment. This will happen either as a result of a “certification crisis” or an “Elector intimidation’ crisis.

Really, the only reason why we might manage to escape this clusterfuck is, well, not only has the election already been called, but Trump and Rudy are just very, very incompetent. But they do have Barr.

So, prove me wrong, folks. I really want to be wrong. But, remember, there are two different Americas right now. There’s MAGA America and everyone else. In MAGA land, they assume my worst nightmare is simply a reality waiting to happen.

Throw in the Insurrection Act and we’re all fucked. At best, we’ll have regular huge protests and massive explosions around the country, at worst we have dueling presidents and actual civil war / revolution. If you want that, please fuck off you piece of shit.

Why Trump Will Dox Electors On Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m wrong all the time. But here’s something to think about.

  1. Trump is deranged.
    Trump is an autocrat — if a very bad one — and as it grows more obvious that he will be indicted by NYS after leaving office, he’s going to do anything necessary to “not lose.”
  2. It will be value free.
    By the time we get around to impeaching Trump for doing this, we’ll have moved on to the next thing. The intimidated Electors were “legal” votes and fuck you, lib.
  3. He’ll be president, fuck you lib.
    What are you going to do if Trump intimidates Electors to vote for him, impeach and convict him? This is never going to work, especially if Democrats can’t take the Senate. So, in that sense, at a minimum, Interior Minster Barr will believe Trump can get away with a coup. Trump will dox Electors on Twitter, the Proud Boys scare the hell out of them — they vote for Trump. The End. Coup successful. (Though, of course, this would likely cause a civil war / revolution, but #MoscowMitch doesn’t think in those terms. It’s all about power for power’s sake and owning the libs.)

The Longest Month


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have, as I understand it, about a month before two critical things happen — the state legislatures certify the vote and then, soon after, Electors vote. Now, on a strictly political level, Interior Minister Bill Barr really has his work cut out for him if he plans to make sure our tinpot tyrant “doesn’t lose.”

But, lulz, he doesn’t care. The same logic that allowed the Republicans to quickie-confirm Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS will allow Barr to take his chances on staging a coup (in some way) between now and about Dec 12th. I don’t know what he’s got up his sleeve, but I will be flabbergasted if Moscow Mitch doesn’t get on the Senate floor and tell us all that “legal” votes have been counted and Trump is going to get a second term.

Of course, this would mark not only the end of the First Republic, but likely the beginning of some sort of civil war / revolution — what I call The Big Ugly. One thing is clear, no matter what — it appears as though should Trump actually be physically removed from the White House (probably after pardoning himself) the Republican Party is going to be made up entirely of Trump deadenders. Either you believe that Trump is STILL president and have to be forcibly removed from your job, or you’re not a Republican.

But wait, there’s more — Trump also has a month to start a war in an effort to distract us all while he steal the election. It’s very easy to imagine the DPRK shooting off an ICBM or testing a H-bomb and Trump mysteriously changing his views on Little Rocket Man so there’s a war. By the time we figure out what happened, Trump is ensconced in the White House for another four years and fuck you, lib.

There are plenty of pretty dark scenarios. Somehow the vote isn’t certified, it gets through into Congress and then thrown to SCOTUS where Trump wins. Trump gets desperate and doxes all the Democratic Electors, telling the Proud Boys to remind them of “the power of the Second Amendment.” The moment it really, truly begins to sink in Trump that he isn’t going to be president anymore, there is absolutely nothing he might not attempt.

He could very well destroy the entire country for the sole purpose of not having his feelings hurt. Good luck, guys.

Can This Union Be Saved?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fear something really bad and really violent is going to happen in the United States very, very soon (2020-2024-ish) for a number of reasons. The extreme negative polarization going on in the United States right now is very alarming. I have repeatedly caught myself thinking about how horrible negative polarization is in MAGA land, only to realize I was doing the same Goddamn thing.

Though, to be fair, if you look at Donald Trump and really would like four more of years of that if your other option is middle of the road Joe Biden, I don’t know what to do with you.

But the issue is, MAGA isn’t going anywhere. MAGA’s dream is my nightmare. They want the very autocracy that I fear. I know I rant a lot about identity politics hurting art, but MAGA people take it to the next level by not only getting mad about identity politics, but wallowing it in themselves. What is MAGA but identity politics for….white people?

If this was a novel — which it isn’t — whatever needless, tragic violence that might happen in the United States would happen NOW, not somewhere between now and 2024. We think we’ve managed to punt this particular problem of MAGA down the road, when there are plenty — PLENTY — of ways this could go wrong almost immediately.

I don’t want any violence. I’m not advocating any violence. All I’m saying is, the Right and the Left are receding from having any form of shared reality at an alarming rate. To such an extent that it almost becomes difficult to NOT think of a scenario where Americans don’t start murdering each other for political reasons in numbers not seen since the Civil War.

I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But we’re not out of the woods yet.

Bill Barr’s Coming(?) Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I’m beginning to wonder if Bill Barr is going to stage a coup or not is, well, politically the decision has been made — Trump lost. And, yet, it would also make a huge amount of sense for Barr to pull something out of his butt so The Dear Leader mysteriously gets a second term.

Though, one has to note that such a legal coup would not happen in a vacuum. A civil war or revolution would almost certainly erupt even if Barr managed to pull it off. Or, put another way, while on paper TrumpBarr has every reason to believe they could successfully pull off a coup by fucking around with the “legal” votes, there would be consequences.

But what, exactly, might Barr do?

I dunno. I don’t know enough about this particular subject to be able to tell you. Maybe sue the states so the vote isn’t certified, it goes to Congress, then SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose?”

All I know is, Barr still has about a month to pull something out of his butt. Autocrats never lose. So, it makes sense that Barr is just plotting right now and will spring out of his hole at some point between now and when the votes are certified and the Electors vote.

Trump’s Three Pronged Coup: Media Narrative Management, SCOTUS & Insurrection Act


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot going on right now. Trump is using the Spaghetti Gambit to see how far he can get towards an actual coup. Is still may not happen, but we’re going to get the shit scared out of us at least twice between now and January 20th: certification of votes and the actual voting of the Electors.

Here are the three methods Trump is going to use to at least come within shouting distance of an actual, God’s honest coup.

  1. Media Narrative Management
    Trump really, really screwed up when he didn’t strike before the media called the election. But now that he’s getting his wits about him again, he’s going to use an “army” of online trolls (probably all bought and paid for by Putin) to make to seem — at least in the media’s view — “inevitable” that Trump will win one way or another.
  2. SCOTUS
    This is important because if there are any questions about Electors voting or their naming (or whatever) Trump knows he will absolutely win at SCOTUS, no matter what. It’s his fail safe.
  3. Insurrection Act
    Should there be any political violence — even violence that his own followers incite — he will invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” The only upside for us is he’s such an idiot that once he does take “total control” then he’s tipped his hand and it’s going to be a whole lot harder for him to actually keep it. Not saying he won’t be able to, but it will be far more difficult because Twitter liberals are going to, at last, realize they have to risk real things in the real world.

The Trump Coup That Wasn’t (But Was)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is so divided right now, that it’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump stages some sort of coup and only half the population sees it for what it is. The other half will look at Trump ratfucking of the usual procedures and say, “I thought a coup was supposed to be extra-political?”

Now, that’s what Republicans are thinking going into whatever coup attempt they settle on. It worked for them with the 2000 election, it worked with The Mueller Report and it work with the snap nomination and confirmation of Amey Coney Barrett. Why wouldn’t think they could pull off a coup if only 50% of the population thought one happened?

We have a whole month for Barr it pull something out of his ass or for Republicans to bully the Republican controlled legislatures of various swing states until they just throw up their hands and nullify it all, asking Congress and SCOTUS to sort things out.

The law on all of this is so bad that Trump wins because it goes to SCOTUS and, duh, they rule in his favor. Then half the country things there’s a coup and half doesn’t and, well, something bad is going to happen. Especially if you factor in Trump probably invoking the Insurrection Act.

Given how slipshod and disorganize the Trump Administration is, it’s easy to imagine they stage a coup, it works at first (because of the Insurrection Act) but in the end it all collapses on them because they can’t figure out what to do next. But the endgame would be the same — the United States would be would collapse.

What happens next would be up to us.

Trump’s Asymmetrical Attack


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

A lot is going on right now. Trump is literally going to exhaust every possible autocratic attack on the process to stay in power before he totally flips out, pardons himself and flies to Moscow.

Or, put another way, the Republican Party is doing the heavy authoritarian lifting that Trump is way too lazy to do when it’s needed. As such, all they need is one — 1 — asymmetrical attack to work and Trump stays in office pretty much for as long as he likes. If he manages to pull this coup off, he will soon enough demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” It will go rogue and we’ll quite literally be just like Putin’s Russia on a political level.

The interesting thing will be if Trump gets his coup, there is a violent reaction in the streets then he invokes the Insurrection Act…and he has no idea what he wants to do once he “wins.” He has no ideology other than the grift, so we could go through a civil war and in the end realize it was nothing more than Trump pushing the issue because he didn’t want to go to prison.

Remember, it will be extremely easy for Trump to give talking points to 1/2 of the country should he pull off a coup of some sort. They have already started talking about “legal” votes. So those “legal” votes could be everything from MAGA Electors selected by Pennsylvania to Electors intimidated into voting for Trump because they don’t want spend the rest of their lives in the Witness Protection Program.

The real bonkers point of all of this even if we magically avoid a civil war after Trump gets his “legal votes” and they still don’t put him over the top, Trump could very well simply destroy as much as he can on the way out. The country go pretty much grinds to a halt because Trump fired thousands of government officials in January right before he pardoned himself and bounced to Moscow on AF1.

I wish I was kidding.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.