Tag: Second American Civil War

The Value Free Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It took 17 years for one of my more conservative relatives to admit that there were no WMD in Iraq. As such, I suspect there a good chance that should we escape the Trump Era with our lives, that the whole thing will be value free to 50% of the electorate.

They got their young hack judges, huge tax cut for plutocrats, and the libs were properly owned, but why are we even talking about it? We have to go back to ranting about Hunter Biden’s laptop or Kamala Harris wearing a tan suit.

So, what I’m saying is, spare me you trying to score points on Twitter against MAGA people because of their surreal hypocritical change in arguments and gears the moment Trump leaves office. They have no shame. Literally nothing matters to them but flipping the House so they can impeach Biden after the Durham Report comes out at some point in late 2022.

Or, to put another way — the very things that allowed Trump to escape justice and accountability will continue to do the same thing once he’s out of office. We should just be thankful that instead of a cold civil war a REAL civil war doesn’t break out.

It still could

Autocrats Never Lose, So What Happened To Trump (So Far?)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve asked this before, but let’s think about it again — if autocrats never lose, how come Trump seems to be?

Well, a lot is going on.

Trump is Old
Putin was much, much younger when he assumed power after Boris Yeltsin. So, he had time to grow into his role as autocrat. And, he was focused, organized and driven — none of which Trump is. Trump is much more of a Hitler character in the sense that he is an avatar for the rot in the psyche of the American political system. He’s so old, too, that he simply doesn’t have the skill set necessary to do the hard work needed to destroy the First Republic.

Trump is Lazy, Oblivious and Incompetent
So, Trump may have a lot of autocratic impulses, but he just doesn’t — to date — have it in him to force the issue. This is not to say that some sort of false flag Reichstag operation might not happen between now and January 20th. If it doesn’t happen between now and Dec 15th when the Electoral College votes, things grow far more difficult for House Trump.

Trump Has Been Unlucky
To date, America has avoided a major war with the DPRK or Iran — or a Reichstag Fire, for that matter. So, if something like that happens between now and Dec 15th, say, then it’s possible Trump could take the “total control” for no other reason than he might think he could pull a Constitutional fast one on us while we were busy defeating either Iran or the DPRK.

The point is — we’re not out of the woods yet. But every day Trump doesn’t go full autocratic is a lost day that makes it far more difficult for him to do just that.

American Caligula’s Rudy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just as Rome’s Caligula famously named a horse Counsel, it’s possible that within two weeks our American Caligula is going to do something equally nuts: fire Bill Barr and name Rudy in his place.

Or, someone as bonkers as that.

You see, the clock is ticking. Electors, as I understand it, vote on Dec. 15th. After they vote, then things grow far, far more difficult for Trump — even though they’re pretty difficult right now on a political level.

But it’s easy to imagine a situation where in desperation Trump names Rudy (or someone) to Justice in an effort to frogwalk Biden before the Electors vote. Or, if nothing else, just to appease the seditionists like Mike Flynn and Lou Dobbs.

The reasoning behind this would be to put Trump in a position where he could not only maybe peel off enough “legal votes” in the Electoral College to win, he could also, if that fails, have a quid quo pro with Federal and State prosecutors: I drop the charges on Biden if you don’t prosecute me.

This is an extremely high risk strategy that Trump is too stupid to pull off. But, stranger things have happened. So, we’ll see. We still have two very tense, very strange weeks ahead of us.

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.

What Are We Going To Do If Trump Finally Snaps?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still not prepared to believe that there isn’t going to be a successful court coup or Elector coup or some sort of coup on the part of House Trump that pushes the country into a violent civil war / revolution. It just seems like Trump keeps dropping depth charges and eventually the Kraken of violence is going to pop out of the dark waters of our body politic.

And, yet, maybe that –thankfully — won’t happen.

But as we all know, Trump doesn’t take losing well.

So, it’s within the realm of possibility that we may have something of a bonkers spectrum ahead of us. On one end of the spectrum, Trump goes bonkers on a personal level. Let’s call that “implosion.” He whips his cock out and strokes it during a press conference. He tweets out the N-word to Obama. Really crazy — but personal — things.

On the other end of the crazy spectrum is “explosion.” Having failed to woo individual Electors to vote for him, he goes transactional on Twitter. He literally tells his followers to start blowing shit up and murdering people. Or he does so during a Fox News interview that is obviously NOT a joke.

Then what are we going to do? Is there anything we *can* do? Is that how we descend into what seems the near-inevitability of massive political violence? Actual sedition by the sitting president?

Remember, even if it’s one of Trump’s own followers who causes a Reichstag Fire, it’s still a Reichstag Fire. I honestly don’t what happens. It could go a number of different ways.

Our Very American Coup Isn’t Over Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It ain’t over folks. Trump still believes he can somehow win. But now the risk of a violent civil war is significantly greater should he manager to pull off what he wants — a “political 9/11.”

Here’s what we have to look forward to.

Legislative Nullification
In this crisis happens after Republican-dominated legislators simply refuse to do their job, even if it’s against the law or they have no right to do it. They simply nullify Biden’s win by either throwing up their hands in faux confusion or name their OWN MAGA Electors. This. Could. Still Happen. This will happen they’ve been coaxed and browbeaten by Rudy’s disinformation campaign within Newsmax-OANN bullshit chamber. Remember, the point of THIS would be to throw the disputed Electors to Congress where the law is so poorly written that it would go to SCOTUS and Trump would win.

Elector Intimidation Crisis
If we get past the Certification Nullification Crisis, we have Trump freak out and attempt to appeal personally to the Electors themselves. He may even alternate good cop – bad cop with Jr. Jr. doxes Electors on Twitter, while Trump himself invites them all to a 48 hour retreat to Camp David. Everybody got a price. Everybody got a family. Electors are humans. They are no different.

SCOTUS coup
If Rudy pulled this gambit off, this would really be an honest-to-God-coup. As I understand it, there’s a case making its way up the judicial chain of command to SCOTUS. It’s a procedural case with no evidence other than, “We’ll give it to you when we get to SCOTUS.” So, I guess the thinking is, if they can simply get something, ANYTHING in front of SCOTUS then someone like, say, Bill Barr could potentially swoop in with new “evidence” that would allow Trump to be handed the election outright. The issue is, that’s not how any of this works, so if it DOES work, then that’s a coup and a rather brazen one. In other words, all the law-types saying what I propose isn’t even applicable are right — but so am I.

Trump’s January Freak Out
If all this doesn’t work out then things get REALLY UGLY. Trump could just go insane because he can’t process leaving office and potentially going to jail. There is a spectrum of things that could happen. From the benign — he quits after pardoning himself, to The END: Trump snaps and starts a war with Iran. Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and this is last chance to force the Rapture by having a literal Battle of Armageddon. This would probably happen when Pompeo gets Israel to strike Iran first, they strike back at Israel and then bang! end of the world. Sadly, no Jesus Christ returning, just The End of Human Civilization.

And, remember, as I keep saying, Rudy’s gambit is all tactical. They just want to “not lose.” They have no idea what happens if they actually get away with all this bullshit. But if do manage to pull off a “political 9/11” at this point then were will be a violent civil war and / or revolution and potentially The End of everything. Like, that would be it. Human civilization would be ended because of Trump personally via WW3 when America is “disposed” during its implosion.

What Is Wrong With You People (Who Want A Second American Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t get people who actually want a Second American Civil War. Talk about the dumbest timeline! If you have a political belief that causes you to want not only mass murder but the potential end of human civilization through a World War 3, maybe you need to rethink what you believe.

The issue is — once a civil war started in the United States two thing would happen. One, the two sides would grow significantly more radical and would likely steal WMD from American military bases. The other is, the entire post-World War 2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would begin.

So, yeah.

It seems as though what people who want a civil war want is to be able to wave a wand where they don’t have to worry about being “canceled” for just being conservative. Or something. They simply can not accept how fast America is changing on social issues and so they would rather risk the lives of millions than accept, say, gay marriage or the sexual agency of women. That’s kind of deep. But I guess if all you do is watch Newsmax and OANN, then there’s not much else you can expect.

I am obsessed with my Webstats and it definitely seems as though a lot of Southern cocksuckers really do think “the South will rise again.” Speaking as a New South Southerner — grow up, you idiots. Accept the modern world. I can’t help that you’re in too invested in the MAGA personality death cult.

Do I think there’s going to be a civil war? I honestly don’t know. But I will say if Rudy’s SCOTUS gambit works at this late date or if some idiot blows something up in protest to a Biden Administration, all bets are off. Anything, but anything is possible.

Rudy’s SCOTUS ‘Political 9/11’ Gambit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

What gets me is people like Chris Christie don’t understand what Rudy and his goons are really up to. The point is not to win anything in court, the point is to make the average person, who is too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to worry about politics, think what’s going on is “just like 2000.”

It is not, as you may know, “just like 2000.”

The 2000 race was decided by about 500 odd votes. Under the conditions of 2000, Trump has lost, lost, lost. Rudy knows that if he can make it seem as though the result of the election is still up in the air — which isn’t — then they have a shot at pulling off a “political 9/11” at SCOTUS should the opportunity arise.

Or, put another way, they want to create enough doubt within the center-Right bullshit echochamber that about 50% of the population listens to, that it gives cover to MAGA legislators in Michigan and Pennsyliva to simply nullify the certification of votes. If that works, then we have a coup.

It will be given a thin cover of “this is just like 1876,” but it’ll be a coup. It goes to CONGRESS, NOT THE HOUSE, and because the law on disputed Electors is shit and Congress is split….it goes to SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose.”

That’s the disinformation strategy that Rudy is has in mind right now. I’m not being hysterical to say this strategy has worked over and over and over and over and over and over again for Rudy the last four years, so makes sense that it will work YET AGAIN.

The stakes are a lot higher, but the results will be the same — Trump lives to fight another day.

Now, of course, there is zero overarching strategy to any of this other than “just win,” so when they do “win,” there’s probably going to be a civil war / revolution and a lot — maybe a huge amount — of Americans on both sides will die for no damn reason.

I hope I’m wrong. I’m often — almost always — wrong. But at least be aware of what’s really going on right now.

My Hot Take On Kyle Rittenhouse


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin on this one. It definitely seems as though if you want something that encapsulates what’s going on in American politics right now, you need look no further than Kyle Rittenhouse murdering people in cold blood and the American Right rallying to his support.

There’s no defense, none what so ever, for what Rittenhouse did, and, yet, here we are with people spotting him his $2 million bail so he can get endorsements from a gun manufacturer. It’s completely bonkers. The only thing I guess you might use to explain this otherwise surreal behavior is Rittenhouse is now something of a John Brown figure.

He did what a bunch of grown men think they wanted to do, and so they bought into his martyrdom and here we are. I’ve come to believe that barring something pretty spectacular, that there isn’t going to be a civil war. Any violence is going to come from Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act — probably because of mass protests from him staging A Very American Coup.

But, otherwise, meh. Just don’t see it.

Or, put another way, it’s possible the far Right is going to start murdering people, the government will support it and then, and only then, will there be something marketed as a “civil war.”

For the time being, however, we’re heading towards something of a stalemate, not civil war. A lot of protests, maybe, and the occasional bonkers Right wing person like Rittenhouse killing innocent people, but otherwise, not a lot is going to happen.

I’m willing to revise that assessment as a events warrant.

Autocrats Never Lose: What If You Held A Second American Civil War & And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves, it’s possible that as we speak, Trump dangling sweet, sweet cash in front of Republican legislators from states like Michigan and Pennsylvania as a form of quid pro quo for them to throw the election to him by “nullifying” the certification of the vote.

In other words, damn the law, they just won’t do it because they don’t want to.

Now, as I understand it, the logic of these shenanigans is to throw the election to Congress where the, because the House and Senate are split, SCOTUS will get involved and, by definition, Trump will win. It would be nothing less than a political 9/11. We’re all just going to walk around in a daze for a few days that Trump managed to pull it off.

And, really, at that point the circle will be closed. We can impeach Trump (and Pence?) all we want to, but TrumpBarr will begin to consolodate power at an alarming rate and he’ll laugh off any impeachment trial in the Senate. I say this even if we manage to win to those two crucial Georgia Senate seats. Trump could murder someone in cold blood while having sex with Ivanka and eating a baby and Senate Republicans won’t blink an eye. As long as Trump doesn’t become a Muslim or raise taxes, he really is something akin to a God King.

It’s sad, but true.

I keep ranting about how all that would start a civil war, but would it really? There might be huge protests, but a civil war? Really? More likely with the upcoming purge of the media, we’ll just be in a Belarusian-like stalemate where there are lots of protests but nothing really happens. And any violence that does happen, TrumpBarr just use the Insurrection Act to squelch it.

Then Trump demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment,” and before you know it, they’re passing a 1984 doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights.”

So, that’s it. That’s how America finally becomes a Russian-style autocracy. We have a political 9/11, nothing really happens and American democracy dies not with a bang but with a whimper.

Oh well. At least I have the novel. I’d prefer not to be pushed out of a window by ICE before I can finish it.