Tag: Second American Civil War

Trump’s Three Pronged Coup: Media Narrative Management, SCOTUS & Insurrection Act


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot going on right now. Trump is using the Spaghetti Gambit to see how far he can get towards an actual coup. Is still may not happen, but we’re going to get the shit scared out of us at least twice between now and January 20th: certification of votes and the actual voting of the Electors.

Here are the three methods Trump is going to use to at least come within shouting distance of an actual, God’s honest coup.

  1. Media Narrative Management
    Trump really, really screwed up when he didn’t strike before the media called the election. But now that he’s getting his wits about him again, he’s going to use an “army” of online trolls (probably all bought and paid for by Putin) to make to seem — at least in the media’s view — “inevitable” that Trump will win one way or another.
  2. SCOTUS
    This is important because if there are any questions about Electors voting or their naming (or whatever) Trump knows he will absolutely win at SCOTUS, no matter what. It’s his fail safe.
  3. Insurrection Act
    Should there be any political violence — even violence that his own followers incite — he will invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” The only upside for us is he’s such an idiot that once he does take “total control” then he’s tipped his hand and it’s going to be a whole lot harder for him to actually keep it. Not saying he won’t be able to, but it will be far more difficult because Twitter liberals are going to, at last, realize they have to risk real things in the real world.

The Trump Coup That Wasn’t (But Was)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is so divided right now, that it’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump stages some sort of coup and only half the population sees it for what it is. The other half will look at Trump ratfucking of the usual procedures and say, “I thought a coup was supposed to be extra-political?”

Now, that’s what Republicans are thinking going into whatever coup attempt they settle on. It worked for them with the 2000 election, it worked with The Mueller Report and it work with the snap nomination and confirmation of Amey Coney Barrett. Why wouldn’t think they could pull off a coup if only 50% of the population thought one happened?

We have a whole month for Barr it pull something out of his ass or for Republicans to bully the Republican controlled legislatures of various swing states until they just throw up their hands and nullify it all, asking Congress and SCOTUS to sort things out.

The law on all of this is so bad that Trump wins because it goes to SCOTUS and, duh, they rule in his favor. Then half the country things there’s a coup and half doesn’t and, well, something bad is going to happen. Especially if you factor in Trump probably invoking the Insurrection Act.

Given how slipshod and disorganize the Trump Administration is, it’s easy to imagine they stage a coup, it works at first (because of the Insurrection Act) but in the end it all collapses on them because they can’t figure out what to do next. But the endgame would be the same — the United States would be would collapse.

What happens next would be up to us.

Trump’s Asymmetrical Attack


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

A lot is going on right now. Trump is literally going to exhaust every possible autocratic attack on the process to stay in power before he totally flips out, pardons himself and flies to Moscow.

Or, put another way, the Republican Party is doing the heavy authoritarian lifting that Trump is way too lazy to do when it’s needed. As such, all they need is one — 1 — asymmetrical attack to work and Trump stays in office pretty much for as long as he likes. If he manages to pull this coup off, he will soon enough demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” It will go rogue and we’ll quite literally be just like Putin’s Russia on a political level.

The interesting thing will be if Trump gets his coup, there is a violent reaction in the streets then he invokes the Insurrection Act…and he has no idea what he wants to do once he “wins.” He has no ideology other than the grift, so we could go through a civil war and in the end realize it was nothing more than Trump pushing the issue because he didn’t want to go to prison.

Remember, it will be extremely easy for Trump to give talking points to 1/2 of the country should he pull off a coup of some sort. They have already started talking about “legal” votes. So those “legal” votes could be everything from MAGA Electors selected by Pennsylvania to Electors intimidated into voting for Trump because they don’t want spend the rest of their lives in the Witness Protection Program.

The real bonkers point of all of this even if we magically avoid a civil war after Trump gets his “legal votes” and they still don’t put him over the top, Trump could very well simply destroy as much as he can on the way out. The country go pretty much grinds to a halt because Trump fired thousands of government officials in January right before he pardoned himself and bounced to Moscow on AF1.

I wish I was kidding.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.

Coup Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still don’t know exactly how it’s going to happen, but very soon Trump is mysteriously going to “not lose” the 2020 Election and all hell is going to break loose. All the miscalculations, assumptions, infrastructure and momentum are there for it to happen any moment now.

It may take a little bit longer than I expect for logistical reasons, but in the end the result will be the same: Trump will “not lose.”

In quick succession, we can expect Biden supporters to (rightfully) flip the fuck out. And in just as quick succession, Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act. He will have the legal right to order the U.S. Military to knock heads. Then 50% of the population will think a coup is happening (it will be) and 50% of the population will relieved that the Dear Leader will stay in office to protect them from being canceled by AOC+3. The same talking points that were used against the protestors in Portland will be used at this point, as well. The Right will chant “law and order” and as such, well, we’re all very much fucked.

As I have said repeatedly in the past, my prediction is that at this point, political violence across the country will be such that there will be significant consolidation of Red and Blue States with massive numbers of domestic political refugees springing up. We can expect a rather abrupt purging of the media as well, probably after angry New Yorkers storm Trump Tower and or Fox News.

Once the purge of the media takes place there will be a moment of truth for a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people who vote for Trump because they feel they have no alterative. I refuse to give them the benefit of the doubt, however, so we’re just going to have to assume whatever happens is going to be a 50/50 split.

Also at this point, because of the dynamics of such historic events, a number of people’s lives will be radically changed forever. Heros will be made and cowards will be shamed, as I like to say. Once people who thrive in stability (read: normal successful people) are faced with a crisis beyond their imagination and ability to process, they may very well just choke. They will panic because they simply don’t do well in a crisis.

We can also expect the U.S. Military to begin to implode. Even though Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act allows him to be a tyrant legally, there may be large numbers of the military who just can’t kill innocent civilians no matter the reason and they will join up with the provisional Blue State government.

I honestly can’t came out the endgame of this shitshow. The two sides may be so equally matched that it’s a draw and the United States splits into two countries — Trumplandia and Bluedoian (or whatever.) Or it could be that because of unexpected leadership and, well, dumb luck — just like in the original Civil War — the Blue States will win and renew the American Covenant. Or, MAGA wins and they start murdering people like me in cold blood.

If you want to get really dark about such things — we may be in for about four years (the usual length of a major war) of a massive clusterfuck. WMD may be used by both sides on each other. Foreign powers may get involved in some way. WW3 may happen. The entire political geography of North America may be re-drawn.

But one thing is for sure — we’re in a new era. All bets are off. It’s up to us what happens next.

How Soon Is Now? Twitter Liberals Need To Get Woke to A Possible Brewing Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter liberals right now are completely fucking useless. They are so busy scoring points on Twitter and preening about their latest piece in The Atlantic that they are quaintly assuming the traditional rules of politics apply to the shitshow brewing right now.


Sadly, 50% of the population knows what is obvious: politics is dead in America right now. We’ve left the realm of politics and now we are dealing with realpolitik. Things like can we keep California in the Union, can Blue State governors call up militia legally are the things we have to worry about now. This sounds hysterical, I know. And I will be so grateful if I’m proven wrong. I have a novel to finish, afterall.

You now who Twitter liberals remind me of? Horace Greeley. He was the publisher of The New York Tribune and ran for president (then died) in 1872. He was famous for saying in 1861, “Wayward sisters, part in peace.” He was the OG Internet crank, too. He was a real pain in the but for Lincoln for a variety of reasons.

Anyway, just like Greeley, Twitter liberals are completely clueless about what’s going on and how to deal with it. There are no assurances the Good Guys will win. In fact, we may have a pretty dystopian future ahead of us for the next, well, long time. About 50% of the population is cool with autocracy and spare me your “oh, that would never happen.”

Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though 2020 is it — about 50 years of macro trends are reaching a tipping point, just as I have repeatedly written on this blog.

This could be it. This could be the end of the United States’ First Republic. I have no idea what is going to happen. There’s no obvious endgame. No fate but what we make, as they say at the end of Terminator 2.

It Appears Possible Some Sort of Coup Is About To Occur


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are dark things afoot. And it’s still very possible that I’m completely misunderstanding the exact nature of some of the events of the last 24 hours. But there’s a non-zero chance that I have it just about right — some sort of coup is being plotted by Republicans.

My current theory is they’re going to attack certification of the votes. Through media narrative management, they want Republicans in crucial states to do a form of “jury nullification.” They just won’t certify the vote because fuck you, lib. The point of this would be to throw it to SCOTUS in some manner where they know they will win — Trump doesn’t lose.

Now, remember, while Republicans really don’t give a fuck what you think, this would not happen in a political vacuum. The moment they allowed the media to call the election, they made their job far more difficult — but not impossible. But the likelihood that the average person who doesn’t really think about politics might sit up and take notice of this coup is far more likely with the election called.

Or put another way, Barr thinks the difference between his victory with the Mueller Report and stealing the election is simply a matter of degree. That, at least, may be his thinking going into this. He has SCOTUS and he has the entire Republican Party. Having those two institutions going into a coup such as this puts him on safe enough ground that he will feel comfortable striking.

And, really, if there is any reaction to this coup, it’s the perfect excuse for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act. That would give him the legal ability to give the military orders that might otherwise be illegal.

All of that is just one of a variety of different possible coup scenarios. We also have the possibility that if they fail at certification, they directly attack the Electors on a personal level.

I have said for some time now that every step they fail to successfully attack or corrupt will lead TrumpBarr to grow more radical. Remember, TrumpBarr has the total support of just under 50% of the population. The same logic that allowed them to rush the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett is the same logic that will cause them to stage such a coup (or something like it.)

All I know is things could get violent. Really violent. We could have dueling presidents with equal claim to the right to tell the military what to do. There may be a secession crisis. Blue States, out of desperation may call up their own militias for the specific purpose of defending themselves from the U.S. Military. Or, the U.S. Military itself could, in fact, implode so they won’t even be able to make a decision.

What’s more, the U.S. Military is the backbone of the post World War 2 liberal order. If it buckles, then you could see a number of regional wars grow hot in something that might be marketed as World War 3.

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But all of this is something to think about. There’s no obvious endgame. This wouldn’t be a video game. Real people with real lives would die. And you thought COVID19 was bad, just wait until there’s absolutely no food at the grocery store because you live in a Blue State (or Red State) and you’re being blockaded.

Again, I hope I’m wrong. Trump is really incompetent, but he definitely seems to be waking up from the shock of losing the election. And, as we know, autocrats never lose.

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.

The Coming Elector Intimidation Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, TrumpBarr blew it when they didn’t strike before the media called the election. That was a political act and, as such, they were dealt a significant blow.

So now we enter the a far more dangerous moment post – election when House Trump begins its extra-political attempts to stay in power. I keep saying that autocrats never lose and, well, this isn’t over yet. But the issue is — the only reason why Trump got himself into this situation is he’s so deranged and incompetent that he didn’t lay the groundwork to “not lose” in a far less conspicuous manner.

Two things stick out for me.

One is, this has the same dynamic as the Whitewater investigation that ultimately led to Bill Clinton being impeached. It’s building. It’s happening in the far right’s bullshit echochamber, but it’s building. And just like they say someone goes bankrupt “gradually then all at once,” so, too, is this crisis going to build and then pop out in a rather astonishing fashion.

The other is, what’s going on right now is exactly what happened in 2016, only this time there’s an actual chance this stress test on the Constitution might work, and, as such, cause significant political violence. Trump has said that he won’t leave power until he’s exhausted every possible option. What he means by that is, every step along the way to Biden becoming president, he’s going to attack and corrupt the process in a hysterical, vicious manner.

So, it seems pretty obvious that as I have long said, we’re going to have an Elector Crisis. As the shock wears off and MAGA begins to think about its options, Electors — the weakest link in the Constitution — will begin to grow in significance. They will whip themselves into a crazed frenzy at the idea that if they can just get enough faithless Electors they can win. Probably what will happen is some MAGA shithead is going to kill an Elector as a reminder to them what they should do. Then, to make matters worse, Trump will dox them all on Twitter and we’re going to have a massive, existential crisis as we all worry about what the Electoral College is going to do. To the point that all 300 million of us know the personalities of the Electors way, way, more well than we ever possible imagine.

But hopefully this will pass and we’ll go to whatever the next step in the process is and Trump will attack THAT. Then, probably, he probably is going to fucking lose his mind and salt the earth in a rather dramatic fashion. He may also pardon himself and flee the country.

In a sense, that’s a best case scenario.

The worse case scenario is there’s a civil war / revolution as Trump grows so radical that he simply seizes “total control’ and fuck you, lib. If that happens, I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be. Though I have said the dead hand of history would suggest Trump will win and we’re all fucked.

But I was wrong before — because Trump is too incompetent to be an effective autocrat — and so it’s possible we’re going to have a civil war / revolution and in the end, after a lot of needless, tragic deaths, things will go back to “normal” in some way. But the whole thing is going to suck so bad.

Just like with all such shitty historical situations, we will give it value and a narrative after the fact in an effort to make ourselves feel better for what we did to ourselves.

I Have Every Reason To Believe Trump Is Going To Destroy The United States Via A Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s some serious silence going on. Republicans aren’t acting like they accept that Trump lost. And the infrastructure exists for TrumpBarr to stage an attempted court coup. All that has to happen is just one of their bullshit lawsuits go to SCOTUS and successfully narrow or redefine what a “legal ballot” is and, well, that’s it — a coup happens and then a civil war or revolution.

As an aside, it’s darkly humorous how many people from Red States — especially Southern Red States — show up in my Webstats whenever I rant about the possibility of the United States descending into civil war. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of Red State people are actually looking forward to a civil war. Why this would be the case is beyond me. As I have repeatedly ranted about — Blue States (once they get their act together) are in a far better military position than Red States.

But anyway, the point is — we are now potentially living through a 2020 version of what happened immediately after Lincoln won the 1860 election. Southern (Red) States are in shock. They never expected Biden — or Lincoln — to win and now they’re weighing their options.

Republicans are so blinded by ideology and negative polarization that they are barreling towards “catching the car” in the courts with total disregard to what happens if they are successful. Now that the election has been called, they’ve lost an enormous political advantage. They blew it. If they had struck before the election was called, then they probably would have had a 50-50 shot of “not losing” the election.

But now, if they strike and win in the courts, things are going to get very violent, very quickly. So violent that Trump will be looked back upon as the man personally responsible for the destruction of the American First Republic. The country will implode into civil war and or revolution and there will be no going back. And, in fact, there’s a chance that when all is said and done there will be two nations — Trumplandia and the rump United States.

It’s going to be horrific if it any of this happens. I’m notorious for being wrong of late, but Trump is a deranged moronic fascist autocrat with the entire Republican Party willing to back him up no matter what. They just don’t care. They want as much power as they can possibly obtain and if that means destroying any semblance of democracy in America, then cry more lib.

Really, the reason why I’m growing so nervous is the silence of the Republican Party. This is not normal. A series of things have to happen before Biden is sworn in, so if it’s not attacking and corrupting the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be Trump doxing the human Electors who will actually vote for he or Biden.

He will “joke” that they need to “respect the 2nd Amendment” and before you know it, mobs of MAGA fucktards show up at their homes and threaten to kill their family if they don’t change their vote and vote for Trump.

I’m not kidding. This may very well happen.

Autocrats never lose, as they say. I will suggest, however, that when the history of the Second American Republic is written, the fact that we finally called the election may be of far more historical significance than we realize right now.