Tag: Second American Civil War

This Could Be It — This Could Be The Coup We’ve Feared


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything says Trump is going to go down to defeat at SCOTUS with his “big one” case that he says he’s going to “intervene” in. We still don’t know what that means.

But reading the ding-bat tealeaves suggests Trump thinks SCOTUS will rule in his favor, no matter what and, as such, throw the election to him. So, we have to take his belief seriously until proven otherwise.

Remember, all Trump needs is one successful asymmetrical attack, like this case, and Moscow Mitch will say that “legal votes” as determined by SCOTUS are for Trump, no matter what else we might want. That will be Republicans’ defense, “any violence that happens because of ruling has to be put down using the Insurrection Act because the legal votes are for Trump.”

That’s been their plan all along.

This could still be a dud and I’ll be happy. But we have to prepare ourselves for Turmp to successfully steal the election at SCOTUS and what that would mean for the future of the country.

I fear there would be a civil war / revolution that would cause WW3. (Jesus, alas, isn’t going to come back, though.)

It’s possible this asymmetrical attack will work, Trump stays in office and we have a civil war / revolution, or at least our very own “troubles” that linger because Trump uses the Insurrection Act, does a MAGA Reconstruction of Blue States and simply hunkers down to be an autocrat for the rest of his life.

But, this is Trump we’re talking about.

So, he could actually pull this coup off then self-own in such a massive way that he loses it all. But is of note that he has the entire Republican Party and about half the electorate at his disposal.

So….don’t think he can’t pull this off.

A Very American Coup: Schrodinger’s Ding Bat


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


We’re now in a very dangerous moment in our nation’s history because half the country is looking forward to the incoming Biden Administration, while about 50% of the population is thinking up new and creative ways to stage a coup.

Or, if all else fails, do some sort of surprise-attack that gives Trump the cover needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and pretty much become a dictator.

That doesn’t even begin to address the issue of a possible unexpected war with the DPRK — or more likely — Iran.

Be prepared for a “political 9/11” to happen very, very soon, if it’s going to happen in regards to Trump.

Any moment now.

If that such a coup happens, that’s it. American falls and we have a civil war, revolution or a full blown autocracy.

I have no what the outcome will be.

Red Alert: Autocrats Never Lose — SCOTUS & The Coup May Happen Just Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a political level, we’ve moved on to the Biden Era. So, if Trump somehow gets his hearing at SCOTUS and WINS, then we’re going to have a civil war / revolution.

It will be the end of the United States.

Now, as I understand it, Pennsylvania has 20 Electoral vote. But we have to assume that he’s going to win because SCOTUS is 6-3 MAGA. So, Trump could lose 1 person and still win. There are a number of “political 9/11” events I could see happening ASAP.

Everything from the entire election being thrown to Trump immediately, to it being thrown to Congress where Trump wins. To Trump just winning Pennsylvania’s 20 votes and then winning the remining votes by doxing Electors or whatever. Or there’s major violence and Trump invokes the Insurrection Act.

Or there’s a suddenly war with the DPRK or Iran.

Nothing is off the table because autocrats never lose.

We’re entering the political phase of this crisis where Trump, even though he’s a lazy moron — could potentially browbeat people into allowing him to steal the election.

Then the country buckles and potentially all of humanity ends. Good times!

What Is Trump Up To At The Pentagon?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something weird is going on at the Pentagon. Trump keeps firing people and filling seemingly obscure posts with his toadies. The most innocent explanation is he’s doing it all out of spite. He’s trying to establish some sort of Trump Deep State that will cause headaches for the incoming Biden Administration and that’s it.

The more ominous explanation is he’s keeping his options open.

In other words, Trump is thinking there might be some way for him to stage a real, honest-to-God-coup and he wants as many of his toadies at the Pentagon to see that it’s successful.

But, still, something pretty big would have to happen for him to feel he could actually pull that off. He’d have to get a war with Iran or the DPRK — or an American Reichstag fire — for him to have to cover necessary to fuck with the Constitution at this point.

It has to be noted that Trump obviously has autocratic inclinations but, to date, he simply either hasn’t had the guts or the focus to do what is necessary to turn himself into an American Putin, even though everything is there for him to pull it off but for one thing — himself.

Trump — to date — simply is too big a ding-dong to ram through the autocratic acts necessary to establish House Trump. It’s all very weird and surreal given how obvious it is what Trump would have to do — and could do — to facilitate just that.

A Few Ways Exist To Look At The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

1. Precursor To Civil War
This is the theory that the late 2010s will be seen as the same way as the late 1850s and we’re not about to have a cold civil war but a REAL civil war. It just hasn’t happened yet. And if it doesn’t happen it won’t happen for the specific reason that Trump, while a would be autocrat, simply doesn’t have the skillset necessary to force the issue and bring down the First Republic.

2. It WAS The Civil War (Cold)
Under this theory, the Trump Era WAS the civil war, it just was just a cold one. Once the Biden Era starts officially, we’ll snap back to about the 2000 era (with a huge amount of lingering resentment) and that’s it. We’re going to have a Roaring Twenties Redux and probably the rise of Neo-Luddites later in the decade as Elon Musk burns the trucking industry — with 3 million high paying blue collar jobs — to the ground.

3. Value Free
In this view, the Trump Era was completely value free. It doesn’t mean anything. In fact, the only thing that matters — to conservatives — are those sweet, sweet tax cuts and young hack MAGA judges. Nothing has changed from 2016 and Trump could very well come back in 2024 tan, ready and rested to do it all over again like zombie U.S. Grant and the Stalwarts.

4. A Fluke
With this one, Trump was simply the right guy at the right time and, in a sense, is a failed Hitler. He COULD have become an American Hitler but he was such a fucking empty suit that he couldn’t pull it off. (I really don’t ascribe to this one — yet.)

5. Fuck You, Lib
Lulz, nothing matters.

The Value Free Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It took 17 years for one of my more conservative relatives to admit that there were no WMD in Iraq. As such, I suspect there a good chance that should we escape the Trump Era with our lives, that the whole thing will be value free to 50% of the electorate.

They got their young hack judges, huge tax cut for plutocrats, and the libs were properly owned, but why are we even talking about it? We have to go back to ranting about Hunter Biden’s laptop or Kamala Harris wearing a tan suit.

So, what I’m saying is, spare me you trying to score points on Twitter against MAGA people because of their surreal hypocritical change in arguments and gears the moment Trump leaves office. They have no shame. Literally nothing matters to them but flipping the House so they can impeach Biden after the Durham Report comes out at some point in late 2022.

Or, to put another way — the very things that allowed Trump to escape justice and accountability will continue to do the same thing once he’s out of office. We should just be thankful that instead of a cold civil war a REAL civil war doesn’t break out.

It still could

Autocrats Never Lose, So What Happened To Trump (So Far?)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve asked this before, but let’s think about it again — if autocrats never lose, how come Trump seems to be?

Well, a lot is going on.

Trump is Old
Putin was much, much younger when he assumed power after Boris Yeltsin. So, he had time to grow into his role as autocrat. And, he was focused, organized and driven — none of which Trump is. Trump is much more of a Hitler character in the sense that he is an avatar for the rot in the psyche of the American political system. He’s so old, too, that he simply doesn’t have the skill set necessary to do the hard work needed to destroy the First Republic.

Trump is Lazy, Oblivious and Incompetent
So, Trump may have a lot of autocratic impulses, but he just doesn’t — to date — have it in him to force the issue. This is not to say that some sort of false flag Reichstag operation might not happen between now and January 20th. If it doesn’t happen between now and Dec 15th when the Electoral College votes, things grow far more difficult for House Trump.

Trump Has Been Unlucky
To date, America has avoided a major war with the DPRK or Iran — or a Reichstag Fire, for that matter. So, if something like that happens between now and Dec 15th, say, then it’s possible Trump could take the “total control” for no other reason than he might think he could pull a Constitutional fast one on us while we were busy defeating either Iran or the DPRK.

The point is — we’re not out of the woods yet. But every day Trump doesn’t go full autocratic is a lost day that makes it far more difficult for him to do just that.

American Caligula’s Rudy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just as Rome’s Caligula famously named a horse Counsel, it’s possible that within two weeks our American Caligula is going to do something equally nuts: fire Bill Barr and name Rudy in his place.

Or, someone as bonkers as that.

You see, the clock is ticking. Electors, as I understand it, vote on Dec. 15th. After they vote, then things grow far, far more difficult for Trump — even though they’re pretty difficult right now on a political level.

But it’s easy to imagine a situation where in desperation Trump names Rudy (or someone) to Justice in an effort to frogwalk Biden before the Electors vote. Or, if nothing else, just to appease the seditionists like Mike Flynn and Lou Dobbs.

The reasoning behind this would be to put Trump in a position where he could not only maybe peel off enough “legal votes” in the Electoral College to win, he could also, if that fails, have a quid quo pro with Federal and State prosecutors: I drop the charges on Biden if you don’t prosecute me.

This is an extremely high risk strategy that Trump is too stupid to pull off. But, stranger things have happened. So, we’ll see. We still have two very tense, very strange weeks ahead of us.

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.

What Are We Going To Do If Trump Finally Snaps?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still not prepared to believe that there isn’t going to be a successful court coup or Elector coup or some sort of coup on the part of House Trump that pushes the country into a violent civil war / revolution. It just seems like Trump keeps dropping depth charges and eventually the Kraken of violence is going to pop out of the dark waters of our body politic.

And, yet, maybe that –thankfully — won’t happen.

But as we all know, Trump doesn’t take losing well.

So, it’s within the realm of possibility that we may have something of a bonkers spectrum ahead of us. On one end of the spectrum, Trump goes bonkers on a personal level. Let’s call that “implosion.” He whips his cock out and strokes it during a press conference. He tweets out the N-word to Obama. Really crazy — but personal — things.

On the other end of the crazy spectrum is “explosion.” Having failed to woo individual Electors to vote for him, he goes transactional on Twitter. He literally tells his followers to start blowing shit up and murdering people. Or he does so during a Fox News interview that is obviously NOT a joke.

Then what are we going to do? Is there anything we *can* do? Is that how we descend into what seems the near-inevitability of massive political violence? Actual sedition by the sitting president?

Remember, even if it’s one of Trump’s own followers who causes a Reichstag Fire, it’s still a Reichstag Fire. I honestly don’t what happens. It could go a number of different ways.