Tag: Second American Civil War

The Coming Trump Singularity


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the great clusterfucks in human history happen when different groups make reasonable — but flawed — calculations. It’s at least possible that we’re careening towards a notable example of this.

Right now, everyone is weighing various political considerations for Trump going forward. But the thing we have to begin to wonder about is what happens when Trump stops thinking about politics and starts thinking about something far more basic — self-preservation.

If this happened, it would be the final thing that forced all the MAGA people who have said “both sides” or “I hope he won’t do that” or “I pray he won’t do that” to, at last, have an opinion. What happens when Trump decides that he would rather destroy the United States than either admit defeat and or risk going to prison in New York State.

I honestly have no idea what would happen. Either these people, at last, say, “He’s gotta go,” or they simply say nothing and let him incite political violence or whatever in hopes that it’ll all go away and they can admit people like me were right about Trump 20 years from now when it’s all moot.

It would be a fitting end to the Trump Era if he, in a rabid attempt to stay in power, destroyed everything. His political future. The Republican Party. Even MAGA itself.

Of course, if Trump destroyed everything because he went from politics to base self-preservation it would come at a massive cost. It would be rolling “political 9/11” that would scare the shit out of everyone. In fact, there are some pretty dark scenarios.

When the traditional considerations of politics no longer are an issue for Trump because, well, he’s fucking insane, then we would be in for an epoch-making type crisis. We all may start to worry about how easy, exactly, it is for the president to launch a nuclear strike.

But it might not even get that bad, but still be really scary.

It’s easy to imagine Trump going transactional in the lead up to Jan 6th. He might tell the Proud Boys to begin to blow shit up in D.C. in an effort to intemidate Congress into voting to overthrow the vote of the Electoral College. Or, put another way, Trump has been a huge stress test for the Constitution and, as such, it’s easy to imagine to situation where for no other reason than it’s an actual event that can go ways we can’t predict, the Congress certification of the Electoral College votes is a potential wildcard.

Any number of different weird things might happen — especially since the Democrat majority isn’t really very big in real terms. So, I don’t know, humans are humans and it’s at least possible that Trump might “not lose” in Congress which would, in itself, probably cause a civil war / revolution.

But even if we get pass the Congressional certification, we really would enter a surreal moment in America’s political history. The reason is — the days between Jan 6th and Jan 20th would be when Trump would have every reason to go transactional on Twitter.

He could do everything from incite political violence to demand Red States to leave the Union via snap conventions. And that’s the point when there would be a historical record scratch. Such behavior on Trump’s part could split the Republican Party a minimum.

It could even go so far as to destroy MAGA itself because, at last, MAGA would be seen for the cancer it is.

So, it’s at least possible that Trump in his thrashing about for self-preservation on his way out, destroys not only the United States, but MAGA and himself. When the crisis is all over, our entire political system could be scrambled for a few years as we figure out how to process what has just happened.

But I’m notorious for getting things wrong. Yet is is something to think about.

Prediction: Trump May Incite A Secession Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The curious thing about Trump is if he had any native political acumen, he would have done a major autocratic move at some point between October and just after the election. That would have likely goaded the Blue States into leaving the Union. He could, in turn, have put down such a revolt and reorganized them in his own MAGA image.

But he didn’t.

And now that he’s waited this long, his autocratic options have grown far more limited. And, yet, there’s a serious risk that once his absolute unwillingness meets his absolute realization that he lost, that his mind may lock up and he’ll go bonkers.

Because, I really don’t see any way he “crosses the Rubicon” and takes “total control” via martial law. There’s just no way he can do it. I guess he could start a war with the DPRK or Iran and try to pull a fast one on us. But it seems more likely that if he is really surrounded by crackpots and kooks that they’re going to drift towards the obvious: him going transactional on Twitter. Specifically, he may begin to demand that Red States leave the Union.

He would say that he’s the rightful president and those states who agree with him need to leave the Union. He might flee Washington for good and hold up somewhere while he goads Red States to leave the Union via conventions. He can probably get a huge swath of Red States in the central part of the country to do so because they’re white. But they have small populations and small economies, so while there would be significant political violence that would be called a “second American civil war” it wouldn’t be until the states of the old CSA got into the act that things would get lit.

But, as I keep saying, the black community simply isn’t going to allow old CSA states to leave the Union and all Southern whites will get for their trouble is a race war.

Such sedition would happen in the context of Trump finally losing his mind. I’ve long debated if Trump would “implode” or “explode” mentally in the end. It definitely looks as though he’s heading towards the latter.

As such, Republicans will face their final test — do they support Trump’s sedition or do they at last cut him loose? It seems this will be a real existential test for Republicans because at some point their absolute fidelity to Trump and his MAGA base will bump up against the cold hard fact that his behavior is, at last, absolutely indefensible and he’s a liability to their own political futures.

So, the split between people who lulz this and those who can’t take the final crazy train to sedition might — at least for one political cycle — destroy the Republican Party.

But there’s a huge caveat to all of this — since Trump isn’t an autocrat but a ding-dong, he could just, well, do nothing. He might rant a lot on Twitter, but he never finally goes transactional. He never finally takes the last step that would destroy the Republican Party.

Trump is so unpredictable — and so easy to overestimate — that we’ve still got some time before which direction he is going to go becomes obvious. But the closer we get to January 6th, the closer we come to knowing one way or another.

Once we get past the January 6th meeting of Congress, we’re going to know not only Trump’s fate, but our own.

#ETTD: Republicans May At Last Say, ‘He’s Gotta Go’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is he has such an absolute control over the Republican base that he could have become an autocrat in the traditional sense, but didn’t because he’s just a ding-dong. And I’m hearing a lot of people on Twitter suggest that Trump is the precursor to the rise of an autocrat who would finish the job Trump began.

We’re living in a Stephen King novel.

I generally agree with that sentiment, but for one thing — what if Trump between now and January 20th grows so unmoored from reality that he, at last becomes a liability to the Republican establishment in such a way that they at last turn their back on him, that they at last say, “He’s gotta go.”

What would that even look like?

Well, it seems to me that this would not be some sort of liberal fever dream where Rachel Maddow somehow becomes president. No, it would be such an epic crisis that it would scar Americans for a generation. Whatever the crisis was would be, in itself, a “political 9/11.” It would be so bad that the entire ground to a halt and we were given minute-by-minute discussion of events on CNN or MSNBC. And, remember, the 25th Amendment is a dead letter. It just doesn’t exist in any practical fashion, so we would have to impeach and convict Trump to get rid of him if things got all that bad.

For Republicans to finally, finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY, cut ties with Trump, it would have to be existential. Like, maybe he starts a war with the DPRK and we all think we’re going to die from a limited nuclear exchange with them. Something that big.

Or, put another way, Trump would have to become so wrapped up in staying in office that he totally and completely gave up any prospect of running for office again in 2024. The reason is — Mitch McConnell is a creature of power politics. For him to become interested in some sort of snap Impeachment that led to conviction, he would have to think the very existence of the United States was seriously at risk.

I have my doubts that even Trump doing crazy things like whipping his cock out or tweeting the n-word to Obama would be enough for #MoscowMtich. Trump has just over a month left in office, so #MoscowMitch would simply shrug and wait things out.

So, whatever Trump did would have to be REALLY BAD. So bad that it would be mentioned in the same breath as Watergate AND 9/11. And, honestly, the only thing I can think of is a war of some sort. And while Iran is the most obvious target of such a war (Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and would force Jesus to come back if such a war started) it definitely seems some sort of an attack on the DPRK would fit the bill much better for Trump.

The reason is — if Trump was completely insane, he might see a major regional war in Northeast Asia as such a massive distraction that he could pull a Constitutional fast one on us. Though, to be fair, the US Military — unlike the American public — can walk and chew gum and the same time so they would get rid of him. But Trump is growing so crazy that it’s at least possible he might want to risk such a gambit.

And, honestly, the only thing that may be stopping him now is he’s not a political genius and he likes Kim Jung-Un on a personal level too much. It just would never occur to him to do such a thing. He’s really not very smart.

It’s therefore possible that Trump will do everything in his power to destroy as much of the government as possible on his way out — maybe even thrash about in some sort of coup that goes nowhere — and in the end he just won’t leave the White House. And that will be the extent of these last few surreal days.

The ‘Patriot Party’ As Existential Threat To The Republic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For the moment, The Patriot Party is more an expression of MAGA frustration that the person they thought would murder American democracy — Donald Trump — was less Hitler and more Chauncy Gardner than anything else.

What MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cucksucker shitheads want is, essentially, an American Nazi Party. They want a party that is so absolute in its fidelity to the Dear Leader that any member with any power will break the law rather than let anyone but a member of The Patriot Party take power.

That’s why Trump’s ding-dong “soft coup” to date hasn’t been successful. Republicans still have just enough respect for the rule of law that even if Trump attempts to get them murdered, they stand up to him. The Patriot Party would work hand-in-glove with Trump or whatever American Nazi who happens to pop up in the next few years.

So, in the guise of The Patriot Party, MAGA feels they would get what they haven’t gotten from the Republican Party to date: such absolute partisan allegiance to the autocrat that they destroy American democracy.

But for the moment, this is just a vague inclination among MAGA. It would take Trump joining The Patriot Party for it to really take. Or something. The Republican Party make simply turn into the Patriot Party before it’s over with. Or maybe American democracy will again limp along as the Republican Party implodes for an election cycle.

While we’re in a very dangerous place politically right now in America, unless some sort of “political 9/11” happens, the frustrations of MAGA will remain just that for a few more years.

Chauncy Gardner Doesn’t ‘Cross The Rubicon:’ Government By Ding-Dong


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA these days craves autocracy. In fact, one could say that’s the central issue of the moment — Trump was supposed to be an autocrat, and “not lose.” And so, when he didn’t do what everyone thought he would do — be an autocrat — it’s left us all, both me and MAGA, in something of a daze.

Trump really is Chauncy Gardner.

That’s why we’re careening towards an extremely surreal moment in American political history. We’re an autocracy without the autocrat. All the conditions are there, but Trump is a ding-dong. His power comes from being a pure avatar for the rot and rage found within the American political system.

But, weirdly enough, Trump really is nothing more than a deranged Chauncy Gardner of “Being There” — he’s so lazy and incompetent and stupid that he simply can’t give his followers what they want: an autocracy. Hence, his followers beg him to “cross the Rubicon” and take “total control” but he’s just not up to it. And, in a sense, it’s too late.

If Trump had struck in some autocratic fashion right before or right after election day, then he probably would not only be cruising towards a stolen second term, but he probably would have goaded the Blue States into a secession crisis which would have given him the ability to reconstruct them in his own image.

Which, of course, is exactly what MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads want, NOW. It’s a very surreal event that if you take Trump seriously as a political Great Man, him being an idiot has saved American democracy to fight another day. We all overestimated him.

This is not to say he still can’t cause trouble.

Have to be an autocrat to “not lose.”

There’s a decent chance he may finally go completely fucking insane at some point between, say, Jan. 6th and Jan. 20th and do all kinds of accidently-on-purpose autocratic things on his way out the door. He could go transactional on Twitter. He could demand that Red States leave the Union and have “real” America have its “real” president…maybe with a capital in Montgomery, Alabama?

But that’s a wildcard at the moment. It definitely seems as though besides a huge tax cut for plutocrats and hundreds of young, hack MAGA judges the Trump Era could be pretty much entirely value-free. The country will continue to be 48% Blue and 48% Red, but for the time being have something akin to a functioning, if weakened, democracy.

As such, what the MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads want — an autocratic strike that causes a civil war — will still happen, just in about four or so years. It won’t be Trump, it’ll be Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo who finally strangles American democracy.

Or, put another way, once Trump is out of office, there’s a chance that American politics will snap back into place in a rather surreal fashion. Republicans will try to use Jedi mind tricks on the American populace so they can go back to bad faith arguments about this or that contrived kerfuffle as though we’re back to Obama’s second term. The massive hypocrisy of this won’t work on a lot of people, but it will probably work with enough people for Democrats to lose the House and Biden to be impeached as soon as possible.

I have no idea what is going to happen in post-Trump America. But I do suspect it’s going to be extremely surreal because when Trump had the means, motive and opportunity to murder American democracy…he went golfing.

The Special Relationship: Brexit & American Disunion


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The “special relationship” between the United States and the UK is something the Brits think about a lot more than the Americans. Americans think of the UK as smarter, more sophisticated cousin who listens to better music and calls soccer football. Meanwhile, the Brits seem to hang on our every word and struggle to keep the special relationship, special.

I mention this because on a macro political level, the United States and the United Kingdom have, for decades now, been in lockstep. Where one nation goes politically, the other is soon to follow. It’s gotten kind of eerie at this point. What is Boris Johnson, but Great Britain’s Donald Trump?

So, you can understand my alarm when there is growing talk of Scotland leaving the UK as a consequence of Brexit. It makes me wonder if the United States might have some sort of secession crisis far sooner than any of us suspect. As an aside, I still find how blasé the Brits are about Scotland leaving after hundreds of years rather startling. But you do you, guys.

It definitely seems as though the forces of disunion are growing in strength in the United States. And, yet, for the time being, it’s all an abstract. Sure, there are plenty of fucking shithead cocksucker MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party people who want Trump to somehow “cross the Rubicon” and take “total control,” but it’s more their frustration with Trump not being an autocrat than anything they can actually pull off at the moment.

Or, if they do pull it off, it would be through something rather spectacular and unexpected.

I’m just worried that if Scotland really does leave the UK that that, in itself, will give strength to similar secessionist dreams in the United States. And, I would note, we really need to keep and eye on Brexit. That, in itself, could be a massive clusterfuck with some pretty dramatic side-effects in the global economy.

Only time will tell.

The Strange Case Of Everyone Wanting A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This blog gets very few hits, but I’m getting a growing amount of traffic from people obviously interested in my dystopian hellscape scenarios about some sort of Second American Civil War.

What gives?

Well, this seems to be a pretty complex question. Some of this comes from a number of macro political trends coming to a head at the same time. The rot in the American political system — exemplified by rise of Donald Trump — is so bad that growing number of MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads on an abstract level want the opportunity to murder “libtards” in cold blood.

The question, of course, is why.

I think some of it comes from the absence of something — Trump actually being an autocrat. When MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads voted for Trump in the first place, they thought they were getting the guy from The Apprentice. They thought he would be an autocrat who would destroy American democracy once and for all and put globalist cucks in their place.

Alas, as has been proven repeatedly over the last five-odd years, Trump is NOT an autocrat in the traditional sense. Trump has autocratic impulses and he has a lot of power by just, well, being himself, but he’s not a leader and he’s really just a lazy, incompetent ding-dong. If you want my proof — all I have to do is point out that had Trump struck in an autocratic fashion right before or right after the election, he probably would be cruising into a stolen second term. What’s more, there probably would be a civil war or secessionist crisis because at that point, Blue States would be so upset that they would leave the Union. This would give Trump the legal cover to take over Blue States, reconstruct them in his own image and give the MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads the autocracy they so crave.

But, guess what! Trump’s an idiot. A lazy idiot.

So, while Trump is an avatar for the rot of the American political system, he doesn’t have something that Hitler had — an actual willingness to force the matter as necessary when politics got in the way. It’s because of that absence of focus on Trump’s part that I have come up with all these pretty simple ways Trump could stay in office as long as he wanted….only to have him not do any of them because, well, he’s a ding-dong and not an autocrat.

And I think that’s the source of a lot of people who come to the site’s curiosity — they know a martial law, secession and civil war SHOULD be happening right now….but it’s not. And they can’t figure out what happened. They’re so busy sucking Trump’s cock and fucking their guns that they don’t realize that Trump simply isn’t the autocrat they wanted.

This is not to say that such an autocrat won’t arise. There are about a half dozen people waiting in the wings to complete the process Trump has started. The ironic thing is, Trump is such an idiot and wants all the power but none of the responsibility that for the time being, he’s freezing out Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo or whomever from becoming president in 2024 and doing all the things that MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads believe should be happening NOW.

It’s still possible that Trump is going to lose his fucking mind and somehow start a civil war. But the thing that MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads don’t realize is they don’t actually live in Russia. Trump can’t just tweet that we’re under martial law and good old boys can now start murdering liberals Purge style without any consquences.

There would have to be some reason, some catalyst for martial law to be declared and Trump has waited so long that if he did try to take “total control” at this point, first the U.S. Military would ignore him and second soon enough Joe Biden would be legally POTUS and, well, fuck you, you fucking cocksucker shitheads.

So, it’s still possible a civil war could break out any moment (I guess.) But it’s just not going to happen the way MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads think it would.

More likely, this is the beginning of a process that will lead to a civil war at some point between now and, say, 2025. But I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

How A Second American Civil War Could Happen Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to get some things out of the way before we talk about this — Republicans have no shame and MAGA longs for a Russian-style autocracy. And in the eyes of MAGA — by definition the only legitimate election victory is one where Trump supporters win.

Another thing we have to appricate is — something about Obama’s second term drove Republicans insane. They completely left reality. This happened probably because it sank in that America is changing and they would rather destroy democracy than allow those changes to effect changes in our power structure. Add to this the growing economic power of women and the associated sexual agency and, well, lulz, they want an autocracy.

So, let’s talk about a second American civil war.

The first issue is Trump blew it when he didn’t strike before the election was called by the media. And, so, that’s the real crux of the issue — if Trump was the autocrat I thought he was, then the civil war we all think is going to happen would have already have happened. Trump would have driven Blue States out of the Union, used the Insurrection Act and then re-organized them under some sort of MAGA Reconstruction.

But because Trump isn’t an autocrat but an idiot ding-dong, we are now careening towards an extremely surreal situation where what shouldn’t be happening — Trump leaving office — is actually going to happen. So many Republicans have invested their entire life, career and identity into The Thousand Year Trump the fact that Trump is leaving office is going to causing them significant existential angst.

Let’s get to the point — how could a civil war break out NOW? All I got is Trump goes completely fucking insane and, as such, goes transactional on Twitter. For an actual civil war to happen, Trump would have to demand Red States to attempt to leave the Union. That’s all I got. Then we see if MAGA Republicans really are willing to jump off the cliff at the direction of the Dear Leader.

I have no idea if this is actually possible. But it is a real possibility. As such, that would be the civil war. That would be the opportunity for Good Old Boys in the Patriot Party to murder liberals in cold blood. Yet, because it would be Red States not Blue States leaving the Union, the issue of race would come to the fore. Blacks simply are not going to do nothing if there is an effort to leave the Union by whites in the South.

So, instead of any sort of Trumplandia being established, you’ll just get a fucking race war.

All in all, it’s tragic and sad that so many people would actually WANT a fucking civil war. What is wrong with you fucking cocksuckers?

Cool It People, A Second American Civil War Is Unlikely To Happen…Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, I get it, on an abstract level, Good Old Boys want to join the Patriot Party and murder “libtards” in cold blood because they fear their lives will be ruined when they are “canceled” simply for being conservative.

But let’s break this down.

The thing we have to see is what’s really going on is MAGA people want an autocracy. They want to live in an Americanized version of Putin’s Russia. That’s their dream. Their goal. The irony is that Trump is an avatar for the extensive rot in the American political system and that’s why he’s so fucking lazy. He doesn’t have to do anything other than just be himself.

So, what’s going on right now is there is a crucial element of our fate that isn’t happening — Trump isn’t the autocrat that MAGA wants, he’s just a ding-dong. As such, all my predictions that Trump “wouldn’t lose” were right but for one thing: Trump isn’t an autocrat. He’s an idiot.

All the conditions were there for Trump to destroy American democracy in one fell swoop in any number of ways — and he didn’t do it. The conditions for autocracy continue to exist — the longing for autocracy by MAGA continue to exist — so we are careening towards a surreal situation where what should be happening, isn’t happening.

We should be an autocracy now, but we’re not because the person who otherwise with the means, motive and opportunity to do so — Trump — simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to pull it off.

If Trump was the autocrat I thought he was, he would have struck in some sort of autocratic fashion right before or right after the election in such a way that would have driven the Blue States out of the Union. But he didn’t, so now even if he struck at some point between now and Jan 20th, it would likely happen only because Trump went fucking bonkers.

As such, what’s likely to happen is we’re going to punt this particular problem down the road. It could be something in the 2023-2025 timeframe. This would give the Proud Boys and the Patriot Party time to organize and a “Man on a Horse” to bubble up to the service who would do what Trump wasn’t able to — turn the United States into an autocracy.

I must note that the funniest part of all of this is the Good Old Boys who come to this site obviously thinking there’s going to be a MAGA “revolution.” I find this hilarious because the logic of a “MAGA revolution” is both dubious and tenuously connected to reality. And that feeling of a need for a “MAGA revolution” is also an example of the yearning for a Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo to at some point take “total control” in a way that Trump simply wasn’t capable of doing.

A civil war may come, but I struggle to imagine it happening anytime soon because Trump is a ding-dong, not an autocrat.

The Upcoming Jan. 6th Congressional Electoral College Certification Shenanigans


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to make about this one. A lot of MAGA Twitter has pinned its hopes on January 6th now. They believe that all their problems will go away when Congress refuses to seat Electors they don’t like. Trump will win the election that way and MAGA can go back to putting kids in cages and owning libs who say “fuck.”

But there are some serious, serious, SERIOUS problems with this.

So, here’s what will happen under the best of circumstances for MAGA shithead cocksuckers. Someone from the House and someone from the Senate contests a slate of Electors.

The two Houses go back to their individual chambers and debate for two hours. At the end of the two hours, they vote with a simple majority winning. Here’s where MAGA dreams of four more years run into a brick wall.

Not only do Democrats have a solid majority in the House, but the Republican leadership in the Senate is actively opposed to such a ding-dong move. So, there are several reasons why all of this is damaging and disturbing.

The first is, it forces the Republicans to AGAIN be on the record about wanting to overthrow the election. Or, put another way, while will likely help a lot of the more insane MAGA Republicans with the base, the fact that the more moderate Republicans have to make a decision that is recorded is not great.

The next is an expectations game.

As we grow closer to January 6th, Trump is going to AGAIN put all his eggs in a basket that is going to break. He’s going to lose, but his followers who are willfully ignorant at this point, at least have the prospect that they MIGHT win — despite the fact that they definitely won’t — as way to “own the libs” a few more days.

It also again lets the know who is with them and who isn’t. This time, Senate Republicans will get roped into this seditious clusterfuck.

And, lastly, there’s a good chance that once Trump loses this final attempt to overturn the election, he will snap in some way and go transactional on Twitter. This, combined with the deflated nature of MAGA at that point, will lead to either some sort of snap secessionist crisis (because Trump is ranting about this on Twitter now) or just rolling political violence because, you guessed it, Trump has gone transactional on Twitter and is “joking” about the need for MAGA to remind people of the power of the 2nd Amendment.

But let me remind you of something — I, and many other people (Maggie Haberman) greatly overestimate Trump’s practical political acumen. In fact, he’s just a lazy, incompetent ding-dong. Any political violence or secessionist crisis or civil war that happens will be stuff that would have happened anyway, he just is the avatar for the specific set of events.