Tag: Second American Civil War

Contemplating Being An Expat Again (Eventually)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For various reasons — including just the basic means — I’m not leaving the country anytime soon. But at some point in the next few years, I may be forced out of the country simply because won’t shut the fuck up about what a cocksucker Trump is.

Yeah, I get it.

I’m currently listening — for some reason — to a lot of Charlotte Gainsbourg. All of her music is very French and sounds like it should be the soundtrack to some sort of erotic thriller. It makes me think about maybe living in Quebec or even France itself.

But, I have my doubts. Given how fucking poor I am at the moment, the only way I’m ever leaving my state, much less the country, is if there is a general collapse or I become a well known dissident and I somehow am spirited out of the country.

The first is a maybe, the second…meh. I don’t see that happening. I’m too old and bonkers for any such notoriety to get to me.

Anyway, I really, really, need to get into a different headspace. I’m still fucking locked in neutral mentally and am having difficulty doing much of anything at the moment.

Cost-benefit-analysis wise, I think Southeast Asia would probably be my best bet. But there are limitations going that direction that make me blanch to think about. That’s why I still think if I leave the country at all it won’t be at my own behest — it will be because I have to.

Moody Blues

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to just tune out from the news. It’s just not worth it. And if I was engaged I would just even more depressed than I already am. I’m not yet medication-strength depressed, but I fear I’m getting there.

And, yet, because I know the specific source of my depression, I think I can avoid slumping into a full-bore clinical depression because I live in a fascist state now.

The biggest issue is that I know that even if I wrap up a really good novel of some sort in about a year, I will be so old that I’ll be a “success” just as a lot of other “normal” people are thinking about retirement.

That sucks and kind of puts a damper on my interest in much of anything going forward. But there remains a chance that Something Big might happen that will throw my life up in the air and I’ll be rushing North as the country collapses into chaos.

Hopefully, of course, that won’t happen — but it could.

I’ve been listening to “Cigarettes After Sex” a lot and it’s the exact band for this moment in the nation’s history. I have been listening to the group’s music all the way through on Spotify and it makes me feel a lot better.

And, yet, I have to continue to acknowledge to myself that this is who we are — a majority of Americans want a fascist state. I don’t quite know what to tell you about that one.

A Minority of One

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have to be prepared to be a minority of one, I guess. If I’m prepared to be the only person in the whole country opposed to Trump and MAGA if need be. I just fucking hate racism, misogyny and ignorance that much.

Or, alternately, I have to be prepared to become some sort of domestic political refugee.

I don’t know how or when that might happen, but it’s something I have to be prepared for. I really want to leave the country already — I’m ready to become an expat again — I just don’t know where or how I would go.

The United States’ population is so big that even if a few percent of the population fled, it would have huge consequences for the greater global culture. I’ve given it some thought, and I think if a lot of Americans began to flee the States, they would go to Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and maybe the Philippines.

The fear is, of course, that the States are about to implode.

It would happen because Trump is so lazy and stupid that he would rile Blues up by doing something really crazy like using Red National Guard units on Blue States — something he has repeatedly explicitly said he is interested in doing, as I understand it.

Anyway. I’m going to turn my attention to my novel again. It’s all I got. I’m going to try — try — to simply ignore the news until something happens that directly influences my life.

MAGA Rising

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear that MAGA is now ascendant. The question, of course, is what does that mean in practical terms. A lot of people voted for MAGA on the basis of abstract fears or anger towards brown people, or gays, or what have you. But when Trump actually starts to govern as a fascist dictator, it makes you wonder what the reaction will be.

As always, let me be clear — I’m not advocating anything! I’m just trying to make my abstract fears concrete.

Trump wants to do a lot — A LOT — of things that if he actually did them on a practical basis they would really make a lot of people upset. Just the issue of deporting 20 million people alone will rile up Blues in an unprecedented fashion.

As I keep saying, if Trump was smart — which he is not — he would do a lot of the things he wants to do gradually and somewhat on the sly. But he’s so stupid and lazy that he’s probably going to try to cram everything into his first 100 days.

If he literally begins to govern like a fascist dictator from day one, then, well, I don’t know what to tell you. Some pretty astonishing things *might* happen. Or, what do I know — maybe they won’t.

Maybe there might be a little bit of commotion here and there, but, in general, people will accept the changes and move on — or leave the country if they can. It’s going to be very interesting to see what, exactly, happens going forward.

The Center-Left Would Be A Bunch Of Keyboard Warriors….But For Fucking Trump Being Lazy & Stupid

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s clear to me that the center-Left “resistance” to Trump is just a bunch of hot air. Smug Twitter liberals just aren’t prepared to risk their lives and scared honor in the real fucking world for what they believe in.

So, all Trump would have to do is simply be patient and gradually turn the United States into a legalistic autocracy like Russia and, well, there you go, we would have effectively a one-party state for the rest of my life.

But, and this is the huge but — Trump is a fucking lazy moron.

As such, there’s a pretty good chance from day one he’ll do some pretty drastic things that will make a lot of otherwise very blasé liberals sit up and take notice. Either they will flee the country or they might even, I don’t know — fucking do something that might ruin their career or put their lives at stake.

Now, before you pencil in a “push Shelt out a window” appointment, I’m not not advocating anything! I’m just pointing out the obvious — the United States just isn’t ready as of January 20th to go full autocracy. It’s very ripe for it, yes, but it would need to be a gradual transition because of how decentralize the country is in general.

Yet, I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. I have a hunch, but it might be that Trump surprises us all and is a bit more gradual than I expect when it comes to his thuggish tyranny.

I’m Worried

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m very poor — I live in poverty. And I’m bonkers, nuts even. But I do have the wherewithal to notice that if a civil war happens I’m in deep trouble given where I live.

To the point that I may have to flee my home as a domestic political refugee. I have at least one place I can go, but that would probably be temporary if things got bad enough.

I’m just glad I have a passport.

And, fuck you, MAGA. And any MAGA person reading this.

The Great Cleaving

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It appears as though a path may have been chosen. I have long believed that because Reds are politically ascendant that it would be Blues that ultimately either left the Union or otherwise caused the United States to buckle.

The datapoint that I am using to suggest that Blues are restless is that it seems as though a lot of Blues have given up on Twitter. That seems to be an indication that some sort of psychological cleaving is taking place in the nation at last.

And it’s only going get worse once dumb and lazy Trump is actually president. If he goes full tyrant right away, then a lot of the scenarios I’ve come up with that sound rather hysterical now may come true. If Trump was a true “great man” then, yeah, I could imagine him transitioning the country pretty adeptly into the fascist state that obviously about half the country wants it to be.

But Trump is an idiot.

Or, put another way — if something happens to Trump and J.D. Vance is doing the transition, then it will be pretty smooth. But Trump is so stupid and lazy that if he really does act like a dictator from day one — oh boy. Things could get really hectic really quick.

MAGA has a number of problems ahead of it when it comes to trying to consolidate power. The chief among them is how decentralized the country is. And Trump has made it clear that he’s prepared to use Red State National Guard on Blue States if they act up.

That is a recipe for disaster, if ever there was one.

What this all means, I don’t know. All I know is the *conditions* for something dramatic to happen exist. The Blues have a lot going for them if there is a direct match up between them and the Reds.

It seems to me that it would be more a matter of Blues deposing Trump as opposed to secession. That would, in turn, cause a secession crisis because Red States would get mad and leave the Union.

The point is — it’s at least possible that some rather astonishing things might happen to the United States in the next few months. Trump has repeatedly — REPEATEDLY — told us exactly what he plans to do.

He wants to rule as a dictator and if he does there’s going to be a reaction somewhere. And that doesn’t even begin to address what he plans to do with his new dictatorial bent. He’s going to attempt to round up 20 million people and kick them out of the country.

That, unto itself, could potentially cause the country to buckle.

And, there is, of course, the more personal issue of ME getting in trouble because of the return of Trumplandia. I really want to leave the country and never return. But, alas, I’m just too poor.

So, I guess I just wait for the knock on the door by ICE or the FBI or whomever.

Trumplandia: — The Victory of Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is just me spit balling things, but it seems as though Trump won because of white identity politics combined with a big dose of misogyny. Or, to put another way, the strong desire for an autocracy that existed in 2016 still exists.

Which makes you wonder what happened in 2020.

Trump’s defeat in 2020 probably came about in no small part because of the pandemic. Or something like that. Maybe the pandemic jiggled our politics a bit more than any of realized at the moment.

I say this in the context of how bad a candidate Trump is and always has been. Something pretty profound is going on when someone like Trump can become POTUS in the first place.

He taps into some dark part of the American psych that I’d rather not have to think about so much –but here we are.

My biggest concern at the moment is Trump’s counter-revolution will be so sharp and abrupt that it won’t be Reds we have to worry about, but Blues. This would only happen if Trump really leaned into all the rabid fascist bullshit that he has been talking about.

I don’t want this — I’m just talking about it in the abstract — but if Trump goes full tyrant on us the moment he gets into office, well, some pretty dark things could happen. I’m thinking specifically of the possibility that he might be deposed in some way.

That is a very, very dark scenario because he is obviously so popular with Reds that if that happened, there would be a good chance of a civil war because Red States would leave the Union in anger.

I don’t want any of that.

I don’t know what I’m going to do going forward other than work on my novels. It seems inevitable that I’ll run afoul of the weaponized ICE at some point and, lulz, will either be pushed out a window by one or, if I’m lucky, be allowed to leave the country in some way.

What Took You So Long

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, the inevitable happened — the FBI looked at this website. Now, a lot goes on with this site that I can’t see in my Webstats, but this time I definitely saw a ping from the FBI.

The ping was someone looking at my old scenario whereby it was Blues, not Reds who tried to leave the Union. I no longer think there would be a secession by Blues, it would be more of a “recognition” crisis than a “secession” crisis. It would be a lot murkier problem because the war aims wouldn’t be the clear cut of: we’re leaving the Union.

It would be more like, “We don’t recognize Trump as POTUS.”

Meanwhile, I continue to believe that Red States are one “truth” on the part of Trump away from taking serious steps to secede. Or not. What do I know. But I am really, really anxious about the next few months, no matter who wins.

I’m Unnerved By What Might Happen After The Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even though it seems as though all my over wrought fears about a civil war are just that, there remains a little part of me that worries — worries a lot. Sometimes, it seems as though we’re one “truth” away from civil war in the sense that all Trump would have to do is “truth” out that there needs to be a National Divorce.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, what happens if Reds attempt to brazenly steal the election from Blues if Harris wins? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to be that for the next few months the fate of the United States may rest with the power of the U.S. Military in the sense that if things do go bad, the military will have to step in to keep the country together.

Or something. Something like that.

And, yet, I’m not prepared to believe that is really true. It could be that no matter what, the country is a lot more stable than I realize and, as such, we have nothing to worry about.

That’s what I hope is what is going to happen, at least.