Tag: Russo-Ukrainian Winter War

Of Putin, Ukraine, Trump & A Potential Republican Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, before I begin, let me be clear that Republicans are on track to win in 2022 and 2024 and accomplish their final consolidation of white minority rule. So, even with the scenario I’m about to lay out, it’s doubtful American democracy survives.

But, if noting else, the context of its death might be different. As such, keep in the back of your mind the cold hard facts that through voter suppression, gerrymandering and Bannon’s administrative coup on the local level we’re an autocracy without an autocrat.

Another thing – Putin has yet to do any sort of invasion of Ukraine. It’s possible this is all a bluff. It’s possible that we’re all overthinking this and the United States will slip peacefully into autocracy, without a hitch.

Having said all that, let’s begin.

It appears as though either Putin is going into any war with Ukraine with modest, limited war aims or he believes that no matter what, any war he starts will be wrapped up early enough that by the time 2024 rolls around the Republican Party will go back to its monolithic personality death cult swirling around Donald Trump.

The Republican Party may face unprecedented division between itself and Donald Trump if there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, because Trump is such a fucking Putin toady that he buck 60 years of Republican political tradition and support the Russians against the Ukrainians.

A lot would depend, of course, on how bad any war between Russia and Ukraine became as well as if the war captured the popular domestic imagination. If the war got really bad and graphic images of the death and destruction of the war between Russia and Ukraine got so bad that Americans picked the Ukrainian side and Trump STILL sided with the Russians…well, Republicans might, finally, have a window opportunity to excise Trump, if not MAGA, from their body politic.

But it’s one of those things that is impossible to predict. There are just too many different variables. And, you know, of course, that Trump is so craven that he specifically for near-term political expediency, he might switch gears, only to go back to slobbing Putin’s knob the moment he was safely in the White House again.

Anyway, the point is — the moment any major war starts in Ukraine, we may all have to take a deep breath and reevaluate what might happen politically in the United States on a domestic basis because of it.

What Is Putin’s Endgame For Trump In The Context Of Ukraine?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I realize that Putin’s relationship to Trump is not nearly as easy to figure out as any objective observer might want. We know that Putin wanted Trump to win in 2016. And we know that Putin probably early on made a political calculation that it would be dumb to invade, say, Ukraine in Trump’s first term given what a suck up Trump would be to Russia if it happened.

And, yet, when we turn to the present day, we encounter a conundrum.

It’s very possible that by definition, if Putin invades Ukraine in some sort of “general war” that he would severely damage the Republican Party by splitting it into the Pro-Russia MAGA faction and the more traditional anti-Russian faction. Depending on how bloody the war became, you could even see Trump finally getting a worthy primary opponent, one who would run specifically on being tough on the Russians who were destroying eastern Ukraine.

Which makes one wonder — why?

Why risk destroying the political career of one of the biggest geopolitical patsies in modern history when you could just sit back, wait for Trump to win re-election in 2024, get his Constitutional Convention and THEN strike Ukraine. Putin is a very patient man, he could very well do that and get everything he ever wanted with Ukraine and more.

So, there are a lot of contradictions in Putin and Trump’s relationship that don’t make any sense because we don’t know all that’s going on. But the case could be made, I guess, that something like this is going on — Trump was a combination Manchurian Candidate, Manhattan Project and very, very lucky asymmetrical political attack against the United States.

Even though Trump was a Russian toady and the most powerful man in the world in the palm of Putin’s hand for four years, now that he’s out of office, Putin sees a big chunk of Eastern Ukraine being something he craves so much that he’s willing to destroy the Operation Trump to obtain it.

Putin has made the geopolitical decision to strike now, even though doing so would be a make or break event for the Republican Party for at least one political cycle. And, yet, maybe I’m not giving Putin enough credit.

Maybe Putin is going into his winter war against Ukraine knowing that he intends to wrap it up by spring. If that’s the case, then by fall 2022, everything will be back to where it was. Trump will be the most powerful man in the Republican Party and Putin’s toady.

Meanwhile, Putin will control a huge swath of Ukraine.

But, at the same time, Putin is potentially making a pretty huge miscalculation. If Russia’s involvement in Ukraine lingers long enough to really catch the attention of the domestic American imagination then….things could get interesting for all involved.

Why Would Putin Wait To Attack Ukraine After His Toady Trump Was Out Of Office?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, it seems as though Putin missed a golden opportunity to achieve his geopolitical goals by not attacking Ukraine while Donald “golden showers” Trump was still in office.

And, yet, if you look at Trump’s recent statements about Ukraine, one gets the sense that Putin had a very specific reason for not attacking Ukraine (or anywhere else) while Trump was in office. If he had, the jig would have been up as to how absolutely weak Trump was with Putin.

Trump was so beholden to Putin — for whatever fucking reason — that had Putin taken advantage of it while Trump was still in power then it would have been difficult for Trump to successfully stay popular enough to become the autocrat that Putin wants him to become.

Or, put another way, one could make the argument that Trump is too weak domestically for Putin to have walked all over the United States while Trump was president the first go round. If Trump had won a second term, then, probably at some point after he got his Constitutional Convention and secured his place as American’s first autocrat, THEN Putin might have attacked Ukraine knowing it would all be a domestic political lulz.

But now that Trump is out of power, Putin can attack Ukraine and pretty much it will be Biden’s problem and there’s nothing he can do in real terms without risking WW3.

At least, that’s all I got. It just makes a lot more sense to me for Putin to be thinking this than anything else.

Contemplating A Russo-Ukrainian General War This Winter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Nothing has happened yet in any real terms that would lead me to believe Putin would risk everything to wage a general war this winter against Ukraine. He scares the shit out the West every once in a while, but he always, to date, blinks.

For Putin to change his mind and actually start a general war with Ukraine, some long-term calculation would have to change in his mind. He would have to believe that the West is so divided and ineffectual that should he attack Ukraine he could not only get away with it, but survive.

General War.

On paper, however, that is just not viable.

Russia’s economy is tiny. Ukraine has a pretty big population. There is a real chance that after Russia “takes Kiev in two weeks” and the current moderate government is forced to sue for peace, that there will be mass chaos and a new far, far right fascist government based on irredentism.

If a dumb dumb like me in the middle of nowhere can see how obvious is that any Russo-Ukrainian war would be nothing more than the Soviet involvement in Afghanistan but with a bigger population a strategic portion of Europe and, lulz?

What could possibility have changed that would lead him to think he could engage in a major regional war in a huge chunk of Europe and there would not be some pretty severe geopolitical consequences.

If you wanted to be tinfoil hat in your hot take, you might believe that something that Putin learned from his good buddy Trump. Or something. If Putin does, in fact, attack Ukraine, he will either have far more modest war aims than we’re being lead to believe, or he believes something has changed to the extent that he can do it and get away with it.

But there is the possibility that what we don’t know is just as Putin gets ready to attack in a general war in January 2022, Xi in China will strike Taiwan as well. Putin’s thinking would be that two regional wars at the same time (AKA, WW3).

Yet, if that’s not what’s going on, I’m at a loss as to what may be Putin’s change in reasoning.

Any Winter War Between Russia & Ukraine Would Likely Start With The Modest Aim Of A Land Bridge Between Donbass & Crimea


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I have no idea why Putin would pick now of all times to start a war of any sort with Ukraine. But, to date, Putin has proven himself to at least be logical in how he goes about his Ukrainian land grabs. In Donbass, he took some land by force, then ran away, leaving his proxy toadies to manage the mess.

In Crimea, he slowly took it over using “Little Green Men.”

So, it seems as though at least going into things, Putin wants nothing more than to establish a land bridge between Donbass and Crimea. That’s it. It’s meant to be a very fast smash and grab operation that will happen so fast that the Ukrainians won’t even have time to come up with a response.

The Russians get a thin, long land bridge and then they just stop. If Ukraine grows unstable enough, Putin might strike towards Odessa as well just because he can and lulz.

But the key thing that Putin must be weighing is he doesn’t want to stress test the stability of the Ukrainian government. It’s far better to have the current government in power smarting over the loss of some land than a revolutionary far Right government based on irredentism.

As such, I don’t see there being a war and if there is one, it will be relatively modest and quick. It might scare the shit out of people who wake up one morning to some pretty dramatic war footage from Ukraine, but, in real terms, it will be a minor war.

Or, at, least, it will be begun with that intention. Anything could happen once the actual war started. If the Ukrainian government was overthrown by a radical fascist one, then, well, we’re going to the show.

But, hopefully, that won’t happen.

A Major Invasion of Ukraine By Russia This Winter Would Make No Sense


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While there’s a lot of talk about there being a major war between Ukraine and Russia, for the moment I’m still not buying it. It just doesn’t make any sense. Why would Putin risk everything attacking Ukraine when he could attack Ukraine with the modest war aim of establishing a land bridge between Donbass and Crimea and position himself for bigger and better things later?

Now, if you were to tell me that Russia was going to fight a major war against Ukraine in conjunction with the Chinese attacking Taiwan, then that would make a lot more sense. Then, of course, you’d be dealing with WW3.

And, just today, I saw where Russian troops in the Donbass area have been put on active status, so it’s at least possible that what I think will happen — a limited war with modest war aims — is actually going to happen. It will be a brief smash and grab operation to establish a land bridge and then it will stop just as fast as it began.

That, at least, would be the war aim when the war started. Once you start a war, any number of things can happen to change its direction.

‘Smash & Grab:’ The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2021 – 2022 & Ukrainian Irredentism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of any major war between Russia and Ukraine is very, very stupid for Russia. They would be able to take the land, but they wouldn’t be able to keep it long-term.

That’s why I’ve proposed that any war that Russia began against Ukraine this winter would be very limited and tactical in nature. If I was going to make any predictions about the prospective Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2021 – 2022, I would suggest the biggest battle would be the one associated with Mariupol. It’s the biggest Ukrainian city between Donbass in the east and Crimea in the southwest.

So, in my opinion, once Putin secured Mariupol, he would re-evaluate his options. If he were to strike from both Crimea and Donbass and take Mariupol from both directions, I think he would stop altogether. Then, about five years from now, he would begin to move troops towards Odessa. That would be his next target.

The reason why he would do the above plan instead of a far broader attack, he knows that if he took “Kyiv in two weeks” as he has boasted before, that he would be sowing the seeds of his own defeat long term. The rump state of Ukraine would be thrown into chaos and it’s very possible that a far, far right fascist state would be established based on irredentism.

Irredentism is, in short, the political movement of “give us back our land.” As such, if Russians took Kyiv, they would be setting up a very 1980s Afghanistan but in Europe with a far biggest population situation. Everyone from the French to the Swedes would throw military supplies and “advisors” at the Ukraine as the new front line began to take shape.

There’s just no reason that I can think of that Putin would throw his forces into a major regional war against Ukraine when he knows as well as anyone that he would likely significantly destabilize his own country to the point of revolution.

The only thing that might save Putin’s ass in this situation is if China also attacked Taiwan this winter in a big way. Then you would, in effect, have WW3 and a whole different dynamic at play.

As such, I think maps like the below are just FUD on the Russians’ part.

I still don’t even know if it’s all that likely there’s going to be any war between Russia and Ukraine this winter. But is something to contemplate.