Apparently, Putin loves to fuck with the West when it comes to his military plans. He always does things in such a way that it’s all very nebulous and up to interpretation until it isn’t.
So, when I heard that there were going to be paratrooper drops around Ukraine today and it was all a “drill” I took it at face value until something occurred to me — a likely first step of any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be….large-scale paratrooper drops.
As such it’s at least possible that all those paratroopers are going to accidently on purpose fall not in Russian controlled territory but…whoopsie…inside Ukraine.
They would prep the way for a large scale invasion on Christmas Eve and away we go. I am still don’t believe any such thing is going to happen, but it is at least…possible.
The more I think about it, the more I think the idea that the Daily Star, of all papers, would get a scoop on the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine was released as something of a psyop. It was released to them not because it’s not true, but MI5 or MI6 didn’t feel like sticking its neck out on something it could not absolutely prove.
So, it arranged to release what it did know to one of the least credible news sources in Great Britain, knowing that Americans wouldn’t know how dubious the source was and would just hear, “Russia to attack on Dec. 24th.” That way, if the attack DIDN’T come, then, it’s a lulz.
But if it did happen, then everyone would be so busy being aghast at what we were seeing on our TV screens to think about where we first heard that it might actually happen.
I still am very dubious about there being any war at all, but we’ll see I guess.
If, as is currently being suggested, Russia is going to attack Ukraine in a major way on Christmas Eve, it’s very possible that all of Trump’s political and criminal concerns will simply fade away. Such a huge war in Europe would suck up all the attention in the United States and dramatically change the domestic media narrative.
Instead of things like COVID19 and Trump being a seditious piece of shit, all those scary images of war in Europe and the prospect of WW3 will be what everyone will be talking about. I still think there is a decent chance that Trump and Putin still talk to each other and Trump knows it’s not the 2022 mid-terms that will save him, but rather Putin invading Ukraine this year that will save him.
The fucking Patriot Party flag. Cocksuckers.
By the time we come to grips with what is going on with Ukraine, three crucial months may have elapsed. We’ll wake up from our daze to discover, mysteriously, that Trump has gotten off scot free and is well on his way to becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.
Or, put another way, on paper at least, Trump’s historical work isn’t done quite yet. He still has to finish the job he started. And even if he somehow doesn’t become president again, someone else is going to murder American democracy. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat and either we slip peacefully into autocracy or we have a civil war.
I still don’t know which one it will be, but I’m leaning towards a peaceful transition into autocracy. I will have a better sense of things in 2023, once we find out if Trump is going to be named speaker or not.
According to somewhat dubious reports in the British press, British intelligence believes there is a “strong possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine on Christmas Eve.
Now, I’m of the opinion that this isn’t going to happen for a lot of reasons, chief among them being Ukraine is going to blink and give Russia whatever it wants. But if a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, it would definitely be enough to throw American domestic politics into chaos.
I say this because Trump is such a Putin knob polisher that just Trump blabbing about how Ukraine “isn’t a real country” could be enough to cause something of a civil war between MAGA and the Republican Establishment. Or not. Trump has such absolute power over Republicans that could be a moot issue.
And, as I understand it, there are two historical issues that would lead Putin to attack on Christmas Eve. One, that is same day the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and, two, it would change the narrative about the 30th anniversary of the demise of the Soviet Union.
It would also change the media narrative in the US. It’s possible that the January 6th investigation will fade into oblivion because we’ll all be glued to our TVs watching the Russians start a massive war in Europe that might be compared to WW3. I still believe Trump may know this and he knows that all his political problems will fade away as everyone’s attention turns to Russia-Ukraine.
I love Ukraine because, as a nation, they’ve been shit on by the Russians, then Soviets, then the Nazis, then the Soviets again and have managed to maintain their culture and honor. In fact, Ukraine is somewhere I would love to live long-term at some point just to drink a huge amount of vodka and trade stories about stupid shit we’ve all done while drunk.
Anyway, the point is — it’s my impression that there is this amorphous blob of Texas-based mercenaries who go to hot spots all over the globe and kick ass. Now, for political reasons, most of these guys (and gals?) would probably hate my guts, but on a personal basis, I think we would get along pretty well. I’ve had plenty of bonkers MAGA people as friends in the past. (I will note that this was before Trump became president, but, lulz.)
The point is — I hope some of those Texas cowboys are in Ukraine right now. Things could get desperate for the people of Ukraine if, say, 175,000 Russians crash into the country and it sure would help if a few thousand highly trained Texans were to go First Blood on the Russians in eastern Ukraine as they try to consolidate power.
I’m a nobody. I don’t know anything. But I like to run scenarios. And I know enough about what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine to get myself in trouble. So, here goes.
Stage 1 I imagine what would happen is there would be a huge artillery barrage to soften up the front line. The footage of this happening would scare the shit out of the domestic American audience and be the thing that pushed everything else off the front page for a few days (months? forever?)
Stage 2 This is would be make or break for Ukraine. If after 24-48 hours of artillery attack they weren’t able to prove their mettle in the first encounters with the Russians, it’s possible the Russians might make a break for Kiev. The logic would be — capture Kiev and force the Ukrainians to sue for peace. If, however, the Ukrainians do a good job, then, Russians probably will settle for a smash-and-grab operation that has far more modest objectives.
Stage 3 Now we come to the stage where long term, the Russians just can’t win and makes you wonder what the fuck they’re up to. History and human nature tells us that even if the Russians get all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and all of Novorossiya as part of a comprehensive peace treaty after taking Kiev, there’s a good chance that there would be a long term pitched battle on a massive scale. It would be just like Afghanistan in the 80s, only with a huge population in a far more strategic location.
I’m at a loss as to why Putin can’t see the implications of Stage 3. It’s a mystery.
I used to think that Republicans have some sort of huge civil war between its MAGA base and the pro-Ukraine Establishment. But, now, oh boy. It appears that what I thought was going to be a civil war may turn out to be more of just a drunken scuffle.
It seems as though the vast majority of Republicans are going to go all-in with their support for Putin. So, should there be a war between Russia and Ukraine the lines of domestic American politics will be pretty clear — Democrats support Ukraine and Republican support Russia.
If that doesn’t make your head spin, I don’t know what will. After 70 years of ranting about how Russia was a threat to the American way, Republicans are going to collectively throw in the towel because of a fail reality TV star. But, as iI keep saying, all of this is the macro trends associated with a declining empire paying themselves out.
Something like this was going to happen the moment Obama won a second term and white people began to freak out about their imminent loss of power within American society. (Something about Obama’s *second* term freaked white people out the way his first term did not.)
So, now, have a potential situation where the vast majority of Republicans side with America’s historic geopolitical adversary because their presumptive 2024 nominee has such a tight bond to the white conservative volk that they can’t dare cross him, even though his support for Putin is comically unseemly.
I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be really weird. But that seems to be the direction we’re going. If there are a number of miscalculations across the board, it could be that it’s THAT that costs Republicans Congress in 2022. (Though, let’s be honest, Republicans have so rigged the system at this point that they’re going to win, even if they don’t win. Or, they’re not going to lose, as is always the cause with autocrats.)
It could be that not even something marketed as WW3 can prevent our decent into autocracy or civil war and, in the end, our civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe only makes a bad WW3 situation worse because we’re going to vaporize ourselves into the Stone Age.
I don’t know anything. I’m a nobody. But it seems at least possible that President Biden’s phone call with Putin tomorrow, Dec. 7th, is something of a trap.
Here’s how it would go: the two men have a phone call and it ends. Almost immediately, things begin to change dramatically on the ground in Ukraine. The Russians are in a hurry to attack for some reason.
Joe Rogan would be surprised.
They attack so it’s still Dec. 7th USA time and everyone blames Biden for screwing up the phone call on Dec. 7th, the anniversary of Pearl Harbor.
But that is just one possibility. More likely, the whole thing will be a lulz and we can move on to welcoming 2022.
While I’m not predicting that people will stop dying of COVID should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine, I am suggesting that our perception of COVID19 will change dramatically.
But one big caveat — I don’t think there’s going to be a war between the Russians and Ukrainians. Or, at least, not a big one. All of this is just another very expensive power play on Putin’s part to get a summit with Biden. He’s getting that summit on Tuesday and so, lulz, everything should calm down after that.
And, yet, let’s imagine that didn’t happen.
Let’s imagine that a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. We need to appreciate that it’s possible that COVID19 would go from being seeing a unique pandemic to a regular part of life — or endemic. A lot of this would depend on how big the war was, how long it lasted and what it’s endgame turned out to be.
But there is a finite amount of media attention. If the eyes of the world are on a big chunk of Ukraine being eaten by Russia, it’s inevitable that the sexxy COVID19 pandemic would be seen as simply endemic and something we have to put up with from here on out.
The only way this would change in the future would be if a REALLY BAD new variant of COVID popped out and we were talking about millions, not thousands dying from it at any particular moment.
I guess the whole point of this is — a major regional war in Europe would jiggle everything in a big way. Everything from the January 6th insurrection investigation to all of the other Trump crimes we’re looking into to the COVID19 pandemic would be pushed off the front page in favor of a huge war.
But none of that has happened yet. We’ll have to wait and see if it does.
One theory floating around Twitter is Putin is about to engage in a massive, risky war against Ukraine because he wants to stop the country from joining NATO.
I struggle to imagine this being true, for a lot of reasons.
The biggest is — if all Putin wants to do is ensure that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO, all he has to do is a modest smash-and-grab operation connecting Donbass to Odessa. Have enough of a lingering “frozen conflict” endgame to it that NATO just doesn’t want to risk letting Ukraine join.
And all of the other metrics presented to me can be swatted away. Putin is old, they say. And I say, so what. Putin is an autocrat and all autocrats think they’re going to live forever. The list goes on.
You can’t escape some cold hard facts. It’s sexy to think of a big war between Ukraine and Russia, but you can’t escape how small Russia’s economy is. You can’t escape the stress such a huge, potentially long-term, war against Ukraine that has a fair sized population would have on Russia’s economy and overall stability.
The point is — what metrics is Putin using that would cause him to believe a general war against Ukraine would be a good idea? What the hell is he thinking? Because it would make a lot more sense if this was all just a very expensive bit of saber rattling meant to get a face-to-face sit down IRL with Biden.
And he can do that because he’s an autocrat. So, for the time being, that’s what I think is happening. When something changes, I’ll revise my assessment.
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