Be The Power
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Here are the three possible invasion paths that the Russians might take should they start a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. There is something of a time limit — if the Russians don’t make a decision one way or another pretty soon, the spring thaw is going to kick in and they will be faced with a lot of mud and not much territory taken.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Well, that escalated quickly. The latest is that Russia has suggested that it may position some of its tactical nukes on the border with Ukraine. That’s just bonkers. Even suggesting shit like that is very, very dangerous.
But I do love a good scenario, so let’s run that nightmare. If Russia were to use tactical nukes as part of the opening stages of a “shock and awe” campaign against Ukraine then wow we wow wow. That would break the 70 year old taboo against using nukes in a big way and suddenly every nation in the world would begin to recalibrate their geopolitical views on the use of WMD.
It would be a horrific nightmare for more than one reason. But, I guess the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine in the opening stages of a general war would be one way to take over the entire country pretty quickly. But, let me note AGAIN, that Ukraine has a long, long history of people going after Russians on a personal level.
So, even if Russia nuked Ukraine because Putin finally lost his fucking mind, that would not stop Russia from ultimately being destroyed by doing so. The same dynamic as Afghanistan would exist. Even if Ukraine was zapped into rubble in the opening stages of a general war, millions of Ukrainians would take up arms and make life absolute hell for Russian troops in their country.
It would be only a matter of time before Russians lost not just Ukraine, but Russia itself through some sort of civil war or revolution.
I continue to not know what the the fuck Putin is up to at the moment. All this moving of troops to the Ukrainian border just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m clearly not an expert on either Russia or Ukraine because I keep getting things wrong. But that doesn’t stop me from struggling to understand what the fuck is going on with the two nations at the moment.
Russia continues to build up troops around Ukraine to a level that it makes you think we’re going to have to imagine that Putin isn’t thinking just a simple smash and grab operation, but a general war. The reason why I can’t understand that this may be a real possibility is by every metric Russia could take a huge chunk of Ukraine, but it just couldn’t keep it.
Putin would be flirting with existential disaster long-term because even if the Ukrainian government sued for peace or collapsed the amount of partisans who would take it upon themselves to go to war against the Russian army on a personal level would be enormous.
Long term, Russia, just like with Afghanistan, would have to leave Ukraine to its own devices. I don’t know. I wonder what I’m missing.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Very, very few people look at this Website on any given day. Maybe about a 300. Add to this my two decade obsession with Webstats and it’s really easy for me to get some sense of who’s looking at this site.
All I know, at best, is someone’s ISP and location. That’s it. And even then I think technology has changed so a lot of people view this site and I don’t even know anything about it.
But, moving along…two people from Moscow looked at this site today. They didn’t look at anything specific, but they came in such a way that it seemed like they new this URL, there was no referring link.
It’s very curious. What could I possibly have written that would make two people in Moscow look this site up? If you really wanted to get all paranoid, you might say they were doing a lookieloo at the site to get some sense if I was aware of something the Russians are up to in say, Ukraine.
But that’s real stretch. It could have been anyone for any reason. All I know is where they were coming from and Moscow is a huge city. But that’s why Webstats are so addictive to me — I just never know.
I still think if there’s going to be a major war between Russia an Ukraine, the next deadline is Orthodox Christmas on December 7th. After that, it’s Orthodox New Year, and after that there’s no particular reason to do it or not to do it. It will start to get warmer soon enough and Russia could just strike at any moment in the spring.
We’ll see.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Oh boy. Putin really faked people like me out, didn’t he. There we were, thinking it was at least possible that he would strike this Christmas weekend … and then nothing happened. And, yet, there continues to be an alarming amount of evidence that Putin is up to something when it comes to Ukraine.
It definitely seems as though Putin is preparing the way for a major offensive against Ukraine pretty soon. The next deadline, at least in my opinion, would be Orthodox Christmas. It’s on January 7th this go round, so that would mean there is now a two week window for Putin to strike. That definitely jibes with the continuing saber rattling I’m seeing on Twitter.
Putin is now demanding that NATO assure Russia that it will never admit Ukraine. If he doesn’t get that security guarantee, it definitely sounds like there will be a price to pay for the West.
And, yet, this really could still be just a flex on Putin’s part. A very expensive flex. He’s known to occasionally do shit like this over the last few years.
Something would have to happen that made us all sit up and take notice. Something different that was a clear indication that Putin meant business this go around.
That, to date, has not happened. So, who knows. But the thing you have to remember is Trump would benefit greatly by there being a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. By the time it was over, the average person really might not care about what happened on January 6th and Trump could very well be named Speaker of the House by Republicans as a lulz.
Get ready for anything.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
If anything new was happening between Russia and Ukraine, I would write about it. But, for the time being, all’s quiet. So, we wait. It’s past 7 p.m. in Ukraine so it must be dark now.
We’re in something of the danger zone for Something Big happening in that part of the world because of it being dark now. And, yet, I think we’re safe. I think we’re just all on edge and the attack in Lviv won’t prove to be the thing we fear it is — a false flag operation designed to start a winter war between Russia and Ukraine.
Again, if something doesn’t change VERY SOON, then we miss the historical twofer of the Christmas Eve / Christmas Day situation and the pressure is lifted. Putin can just attack any old time between now and Orthodox Christmas and that will be that. Or maybe it won’t attack at all.
This could all be a very expensive bluff.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I honestly don’t know what is going to happen with this attack on the Russian consulate in Lviv, Ukraine. But the argument could definitely be made that it is the fig leaf necessary for Putin to invade Ukraine.
And, yet, for it to happen tonight EST, something would have to change big time. Hostile attacks against Ukraine on the part of the Russians would have to escalate VERY SOON to the point that we all sit up and take notice. Cyber attacks. Increased artillery barrages. I honestly don’t know enough about how things would go down. I guess it’s possible that all hell would just suddenly break loose sometime late evening today EST?
Or maybe nothing is going to happen.
It could be I’m way overthinking things. The actual attack was minimal, so lulz. The only reason why one might think it was a casus belli is, well, we all on edge and it would definitely make sense for something like this to happen right before a major invasion of Ukraine.
It really could go either way at the moment. It could be that nothing is going to happen, just as I have come to assume. But the next few hours will be telling.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m beginning to think I was wrong — AGAIN — to even contemplate Russia invading Ukraine anytime soon. But, I will note in passing that Putin has something of a deadline at the moment if he wants to lean into the symbolism of Christmas Eve – Christmas Day timeframe
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, 1979. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union officially dissolved at noon on Christmas Day, 1991. So, if Putin wants to change the narrative from “30 years since the end of the Soviet Union” to “Holy shit, the Russians have invaded Ukraine” they need to do it, like RIGHT NOW.
If it were to happen, Something Big would probably begin to happen mid-to-late afternoon EST. If we make it to Christmas Eve evening EST without a major Russian cyber attack against Ukraine or any number of other hostile actions, then, lulz, we’ve passed the “twofer” moment.
After that, it could be anytime between now and either Orthodox Christmas or Orthodox New Year’s that the Russo-Ukrainian War might begin. I’m beginning to think that, thankfully, for the near term, things are going to be a dud.
It may happen, just not immediately.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Welp, this is the moment of truth. It could go either way and it’s up to Putin which way it goes. Which, of course, is exactly what he wants. It’s now after dark in Ukraine as best I can tell, so we just wait.
It could be that if Putin wants to start a war, it will be tomorrow night so it would be Dec. 24th in the US. Or it could be that the actual war would start on Dec 24 Russia time and, as such, the war would start tonight. The prep for the war could begin at literally any moment.
Probably what would happen is a massive cyber attack, combined with those paratroopers landing in Ukraine and then, maybe, a massive artillery barrage to soften up the front line so when the tanks roll in, they can go farther.
And, really, the issue at that point would be how well the Ukrainians stood up to the attack. If they do well, it’s a smash and grab operation. If they do poorly, then it becomes a general war and there’s a mad rush on Kiev by Russian and Belarusian forces.
But, like I’ve said — I’m always, always wrong. So, it could be we just have a tense few days and then…we just go back to normal. It could be that all of this was just a very expensive flex by the 70-year-old Putin.
Only time will tell.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m still very reluctant to believe a major war between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out, but there are some interesting metrics to look at of late. For me, the chief issue is exactly when that paratrooper drop is supposed to happen today.
If it happens in broad daylight, then, lulz, we can take it at face value.
But if it happens after dark, then I’m going to grow really nervous. And the later is happens at night, the more ominous its meaning would become. Because it would be a lot more difficult to track exactly where the drop happened. So, what if instead of Crimea and just to the east of Donbas, the airdrop was in Ukraine proper and the whole thing is a setup for a full blown invasion tomorrow, Christmas Eve?
There is so much I don’t know. Wouldn’t there be a lot of alarming scurrying be seen around Ukraine as everyone turned their tank on and started racing towards the border? Seems like that, unto itself, would take time. Enough time that it wouldn’t be Christmas Eve, but rather something closer to New Year’s. But what do I know?
All I know is the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. If we can get past that time, then I think we’ve passed an immediate danger. And invasion might still happen, but once you get pass starting a major war on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union, then, lulz. You can pretty much do it anytime you want.
I’m always wrong, so I’m not prepared to say a war is actually going to start anytime soon — if ever — but it is something to keep an eye on for the next few days.
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