Tag: Russo-Ukrainian Winter War

Is The West Prepared To Absorb 5 Million Ukrainian Refugees?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It looks as though Russia may go after not just the east of Ukraine, but all of it. If they did, in fact, do that, then there are estimates that as many as 5 million Ukrainians might flee that country.

Which, of course, raises the question — where the hell would that many people go?

The obvious answer is Canada. That country already has a sizable Ukrainian population and the addition of a few million more for such an underpopulated country would probably help their economy a great deal. Then, there is the US. This is a lot more problematic given how nativist the America First cocksuckers of MAGA and Fox News are these days.

But it’s not impossible to see a pretty massive migration of Ukrainians from Europe to North America. It could be, in fact, the biggest such forced migration since the end of WW2. Though one has to note that a lot of Hungarians fled to the West after the 1956 uprising there was crushed by the Soviets.

One issue that might soften the blow for the typical American is, of course, race. It’s a lot more difficult for the fucking racists of MAGA and Fox News to shoot blood out of their eyes over letting in a few million people if they’re white. A lot of them would not speak English, but that can be fixed soon enough.

Also greasing their entry into America would be a lot of the Ukrainians would be highly educated and highly trained. In fact, if you wanted to paint the rosiest possible picture of what might might happen if a few million Ukrainians fled to the US, one might suggest that they would really help the American economy in more ways than one.

Because they would be considered “white” by fucking racist cocksuckers on the far Right, if they started to take jobs that no one in America wanted to take as they built a new home in America then, well, maybe some of the nationalist pressure for us to become a Russian-style autocracy might ease. A little bit.

We’ll see.

Feb. 20th or Feb. 21st May Be The Start Of The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, it definitely seems as though H-Hour for a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War is upon us. If it’s going to happen — which I still don’t know for a fact it will — it’s probably going to start between now, Feb 20th and tomorrow, Feb 21. Though there’s a small chance it could be as late as the 22nd.

That was then…

…this is now.

But “tora tora tora” is going to happen either tonight or tomorrow night. I keep hearing weird pings indicating either night. The Biden Administration definitely seems to think it’s going to be tonight. And, yet, a number of top Russian politicians keep saying things which would indicate it’s going to be tomorrow.

And then there’s this:

One More Sleep Until The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Starts?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I don’t know anything. You should probably just aggressively ignore my opinion on this matter. But I do have opinions, nonetheless. And it definitely seems as though at least the Biden Administration believes that we have one more sleep until Something Big happens between Ukraine and Russia. Maybe even the biggest war in Europe since WW2. (Though, in all fairness, it’s probably the biggest war since the ’68 crushing of Prague Spring.)

Anyway, it’s at least possible that whatever is going to happen is going to begin just as the Olympics are wrapping up in China tomorrow evening. So, it could be that Sunday, February 20th is D-Day. Or not. I’ve decided that anytime between now and roughly February 22nd would be the “sweetspot” for an attack if it’s going to happen.

Or maybe it’s not going to happen at all.

But it definitely SEEMS as though Something Big and Something Bad is going to happen very, very soon. I still have my doubts that much, if any, of the things we’re all that worried about at the moment will make it through the “vibe shift” that a major land war in Europe would entail.

Only time will tell.

Hot Take: The Russo-Ukrainian War May Start February 20th


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of signs all point towards some sort of major military event happening between Russia and Ukraine on or around February 20th. The Olympics are set to end on that date. The Russians are set to rattle their nuclear sabers around then. And, in general, the Russians waiting until around then would allow the to get everything in place to strike.

Because the issue is — for all the Russian declarations about standing down and everyone going back to base, this is not, in fact happening. All the OSINT that I see on Twitter indicates that rather than standing down, the Russians are aggressively positioning their forces closer and closer to the Ukrainian border.

This is the point where I note that I always get things wrong. Always. So, I would take my prediction with a grain of salt. It could be that for various tactical reasons — the weather, Xi’s request for a week global peace after the Olympics, you name it — that it could be as late as February 26th.

Or it may not happen at all.

I can’t predict the future. But as of right now, the night of February 20th US EST seems about right. Though, the counter argument is the Russians would wait until Monday morning EST to get their maximum bang for their buck when it comes to shocking the American audience.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

War
At the moment, it seems as though there’s going to be a major war in Europe. It hasn’t happened yet, so it still may not. It’s possible that a huge chunk of Ukraine will be eaten by Russia and a lot of people will die needless deaths. Along the way, the Ukrainian government might collapse.


Peace In Our Time
In this scenarios, we barely avert war because the Ukrainians give in to the Russian demands. But folding on the part of the Ukrainian government leads to a popular revolt within the citizenship and…and the government collapses, which given the Russians the excuse they need to…invade Ukraine.

This is All A Flex
It’s still possible that Putin is doing all of this just to fuck with us and rather than pulling the trigger one way or the other, he draws down his forces as suddenly as he built them up and we, thankfully, move on to something else.

My Hot Take On An Impending Russo-Ukrainian Winter War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welp. Apparently we’ve been given our 48 hour warning for a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. It’s probably going to happen — if it does happen — at some point between now and no later than February 15 (probably the 14th).

First, we have to prepare ourselves for American civilian expats to come home in body bags. I’m assuming there are too many of them to leave in time. And there’s a chance that the entirety of Ukraine will go tits up soon after any invasion begins. So, there’s that to think about.

And, remember, the moment a war starts, everything in the United States will be thrown up in the air because there is a finite amount of air in the public sphere for attention. So, in a sense, Trump might escape AGAIN simply because we’re so busy thinking about 5 million Ukrainian refugees that we don’t have time to worry about his bullshit.

Or something.

And now, in just the last little bit, we’ve learned there is some confusion coming out the US government as to what, exactly, is going to happen. What I think is happening is Biden told allies he thinks Putin has made up his mind and that promptly leaked out. Meanwhile, the rest of the government is publicly saying Putin HASN’T made up his mind in hopes of preventing the whole thing having an air of inevitability to it.

I would, however, suggest you keep Twitter and CNN / MSNBC close for the next few days. Go time will probably be in the 6:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST time frame, whatever day it does — or doesn’t happen.

Why Are The Americans Spooked About The Russians Around Ukraine Tonight?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about any geopolitical issue is you just never know. It’s why any discussion — especially on Twitter — about this or that potential geopolitical hotspot should be left to the experts.

But, lulz, that’s never stopped me before. So, here’s my unfounded speculation about why the US is flying surveillance aircraft at night over Ukraine, which apparently is very rarely, if ever, seen.

So, what does it mean? Why are they doing it now? What has spooked them into doing something so unusual. I honestly have no idea. But I do think we may be in something akin to the “red zone” that will span between now and, say, March 1st.

A lot depends on what Putin and Xi said to each other over the last few days at the Olympics. It could be that Xi gave Putin a greenlight to attack ASAP, or it could be all of this means nothing and we just wait and see.

But I’m going to continue to keep an eye on all of this.

Scenario: How An Invasion Of Ukraine May Play Domestically In The United State States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to run scenarios, so here’s one about how the American domestic political system might handle a major war in Ukraine. I think the first thing we have to appreciate is how fucked up America is right now. Much, if not all, of our problems with COVID comes strictly from how everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through absolute lens of partisan politics.

This does not bode well for what might happen within the United States if faced with the biggest land war in Europe since WW2. A lot depends on how long the war lasts. If it’s a quick “love tap” on the part of Putin that lasts only a few weeks, then the “rally round the flag” affect would last long enough that we wouldn’t really have any problems.

But if Putin is nuts enough to try to take a huge portion of Ukraine and the war begins to drag out for months or years, then all bets are off. It could be that the United States really is so divided that not even doing something as basic as defending democracy as part of being the lynchpin of the post-WW2 global order is something we can do effectively anymore.

It could be that the war lasts the more the two sides scream hysterically at each other like they do everything else and, well, we — and the Ukrainians — will be fucked. The United States will not only be barely able to help Ukraine, we’ll barely be able to do our job as part of NATO.

All of this, of course, would embolden China in regards to Taiwan. Then we might have TWO major regional wars taking place, which, of course, would be marketed as WW3. Then throw in the DPRK wanting to get in on the action by shooting of ICBMs and testing H-bombs and, well, things would grow very unstable globally very quickly.

I only say all of this because it seems as though the United States is so absolutely divided that there’s no one issue — not even one about life and death like a pandemic — that we’re willing to put aside our political differences long enough to address. Doesn’t exactly make me feel too secure going forward into a potential major war in Europe.

Is Putin Right About America?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is so absolutely divided at the moment that one has to believe that that division must be one of the things that Putin is using to weigh his invasion of Ukraine. And, just talking to my Traditionalist relatives, it definitely seems as though thinks are about to play out as I fear.

The American center-Right will grow hysterical about the United States having no business defending Ukraine, while the center-Left will grow hysterical that we absolutely need to defend them. How this would work out in real terms should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine I don’t know. It will be interesting to see if the United States is just too divided to give Ukraine any coherence defense.

The fascist MAGA New Right is ascendant and one could make the argument that all Putin has to do is be patient. All he has to do is bide his time and by 2024 – 2025 the United States will either collapse into civil war or turn into a very inward looking autocracy that doesn’t give a shit about the outside world at all in the first place.

It’s definitely going to be interesting to see what happens. We don’t even know for sure that there’s going to be a war between Russia and Ukraine in the first place. I always get stuff like that wrong. So, it could be that all of this saber rattling on Putin’s part is just an elaborate ruse on his part to get attention. Only time will tell.

I’m At A Lost As To What’s Going On Between Russia & Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I simply have no idea what to think right now about the prospect of war or peace between Ukraine and Russia. On one hand, the Biden Administration is acting like a major land war could happen at any moment in Europe, while the Ukrainians are puzzled as to why this is being suggested.

A number of things seem to be happening at the same time. Yes, the Russians are amassing a large number of troops near Ukraine. But what they aren’t doing is just as telling — they’re not sending in the necessary support infrastructure needed to do the the thing we’re all worried they will do: invade. What’s more there is definitely a momentum for a war between Ukraine and Russia to start sooner rather than later.

So, I don’t know.

I guess you might square the circle by saying that, yes, a war is going to happen soon, but just not as soon as the Biden Administration seems to believe. So, at some point in the next few weeks the war will start, just not as late as February 20th.

Or, put another way, something has to change. Something that makes it clear that what is going to happen one way or another. There is plenty — plenty — of time for things to calm down and go back to “normal.” It’s just that there is a real risk that it’s too late for Putin to back down without looking weak. Of course, there is the possibility that it will be the Ukrainians who back down at the last moment and all of Putin’s flexing will look really smart.

But everything is up in the air. I have no idea what is going to happen. We’re all just going to have to wait and see. It really could go either way at this point.