Tag: Russo-Ukrainian Winter War

WW3: Putin’s Challenge To Pax America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The nightmare scenario we face at the moment, of course, is that Putin is no longer a rational actor. As such, the same screwy logic that had him go into Ukraine might cause him to attack NATO in some way. Either by, say, attacking a convoy supplying Ukraine or attacking a Baltic state or states.

That would be when Putin and NATO would face an existential choice. Either they figured out some way to reduce tensions, or they went at it. I read Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising novel when I was a kid and much of what I learned from it way back when it still applicable. Just because WW3 started, doesn’t mean it would have to go nuclear.

What I could imagine happening is some sort of geopolitical tet-a-tet between the Usual Suspects of nations that would have a vested interest in ending the 75 year old Pax America. If Putin was somehow able to get China, the DPRK and Iran to make a full-blow attack against American global dominance, then we’re going to the show.

In a way, I think the DPRK would be the lynchpin of any attempt on Putin’s bonkers calculations. The DPRK is so strange, there is at least a chance they might be leaned on to attack the South Koreans in a big way, without really realizing they were being used as a pawn for Russia and China’s bigger goal of re-arranging the global order.

The DPRK is a unique nuclear state in that it has the means and opportunity to destroy a major American city without ending anything but itself. In other words, the DPRK has ICBMs and H-bombs that it could use to zap LA, NYC or DC…and in the end all that would happen is the USA would, in turn, bomb the DPRK into the Stone Age.

But using a City Killer on NYC or LA would leave a serious mark on the USA, to the point that Russia and China could re-arrange the global political order to their liking without sacrificing any of their own people. This is a real stretch to some extent, but if Putin is no longer a rational actor, then it’s logic that we at least have to mull.

The thing is, once WW3 started, by definition, the peace and prosperity that billions have enjoyed since WW2 would come to a rather abrupt end. There would be no value to it and we would only give it narrative after it was over. So, in short — the bad guys might win. The USA could be left crippled after a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK and Russia and China would fill the void.

Meanwhile, Iran and Israel might blow each other up, as might India and Pakistan. A real New World Order might emerge, with China, specifically, having a clear shot at dominating the world both economically and politically. Russia might also rise in the context of global climate change that no one seems all that interested in doing anything about.

What’s more, even if we manage to escape WW3 in the near term, around 2024 – 2025, all the conditions are there for it to happen, anyway, since the US is either going to become Fortress Autocratic America or have a civil war. In either case, everything will be scrambled for the first time in around 80 years. It will be The Great Reset or The Fourth Turning, depending on how bonkers or conspiratorial you are.

Good luck.

Running The WW3 Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk these days about the possibility of World War Three happening. Well, let’s think about how it might happened and what it would, in practical terms, look like.

The first issue is we don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not on the world stage. But, then, we didn’t expect him to invade Ukraine and he did that, so we have to take seriously that he might go after the Baltic states who are members of NATO.

If he did that, then, yes, in a legal sense WW3 would begin. But a lot would depend on what happened after that. If Putin just fucked with the Baltic states, that wouldn’t really be WW3 unless there was some sort of limited nuclear exchange. Him just scaring the shit out of the Baltics enough that it was considered an act of war and caused them to invoke NATO’s Article 5…would just be really meaningless – but scary — events.

What Putin would need would be an Axis of some sort. He would need other major powers who wanted to challenge Pax America as well to act in unison with him. This would require, of course, Putin to convince President Xi of China to attack Taiwan — potentially with tactical nukes after Putin had broken that particular taboo himself in Ukraine.

Xi might, in turn, lean on the North Koreans to go after the the South Koreans as some sort of distraction. And, if Putin was REALLY LUCKY, he might be able to rope Iran into this particular clusterfuck as well.

As all of this was happening, you would also probably have India and Pakistan going at it as well. So, there you go. That would be WW3 and there would be no assurances that either Pax America survives or that, well, any of us survives.

WMD: The Dogs Of War That Haven’t Barked — Yet — In Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are in a very dangerous period in modern world history. Putin has put himself in something of a public relations box. Either he loses this war or he escalates. It’s my understanding that it’s standard Russian war doctrine to go down fighting — to escalate using WMD — if it appears clear that they’re going to lose.

I still don’t believe that, in real terms, Russia will face all that much in additional consequences if they decided to use low grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine. Hell, the Russians could use tactical nukes and I still don’t think anything would happen.

What is going to happen to them? NATO and the US don’t really have any desire to defend Ukraine directly as it is. They will have even less reason should nukes be used in some capacity. So, after the shock of the 75 year old taboo against the use of nukes being broken was passed, we would all move on.

Now, that doesn’t mean that there would not be consequences. It’s very possible that the Ukrainians would be even more enraged than they already are and the Russians would again have to either lose or escalate. But, even more importantly, the issue of how other nuclear powers would respond is something we would need to think about.

It seems as though the post-WW2 liberal order really would be over if the Russians attempted to nuke themselves out of a Ukrainian debacle. So, China might use nukes against Taiwan, the list goes on. Name a geopolitical hotspot where one or more of the potential combatants has nukes.

Anyway, we’ll see I guess.

Are Comparisons Between Zelenskyy & Churchill Legitimate?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short Answer: We don’t know yet — and why are you asking me?

Long Answer:

I’m a big believer in the idea that people rise to the occasion — but they have to have the opportunity to rise to the occasion. It is rare for people not to rise to the occasion, though Trump is a recent instance of that very thing.

But Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, definitely seems to be rising to the occasion. And, yet, the verdict is still very much out. To this date, there are historical ne’er-do-wells who posit that Lincoln or Churchill weren’t all that great.

I think we want and need Zelenskyy to be the hero of the moment. It is interesting that the bar is so fucking low for modern leadership that Zelenskyy simply doing what we all assume our leaders will do — lead — is a huge deal. But, in general, the verdict is still out.

I wish him well and believe in him, though.

The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War’s Impending WW1 Endgame — We Have To Prepare For The Violent Collapse Of Putin’s Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History is a fickle mistress. Nowhere is this more obvious that than Russia. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere — you probably shouldn’t listen to me — but I do have a hot take on Russia’s future.

It seems to me that Russia’s military in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. If that happens, then there could be a significant cascading series of events that ultimately leads to Putin’s downfall.

Given Russia’s size and the number of nukes it has, this would throw the entire world order for a loop. There could be loose nukes. Limited nuclear exchanges, you name it. But there would also be a lot of opportunity. Russia has huge unlocked potential and if there was some macro creative destruction in Russia, there is a chance that the nation could transform itself form economic backwater to economic powerhouse within a generation.

I say this in the context of global climate change. But the process of this propose transformation would be very bloody and very painful for millions –if not billions — of people.

So, I don’t know. But it would be very ironic if there was a Second Russian Revolution just as the United States had a Second Civil War and we switch sides politically and economically. Russia liberating itself just as America turns into a theocratic, autocratic state would be rather surreal and ironic.

But it’s very much a real possibility, given macro trends in both nations as we lurch towards 2024 – 2025.

The EMP Is Going To Get You


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of nervousness about the possibility that the Russians might use nukes of some sort against Ukraine. But there is something we need to take into consideration: it’s my impression that any time you use a nuke, you also get an EMP.

And, as such, if there was a a nuclear explosion, the first thing that would happen is we would get reports of all the electronics in the general area of the blast being zapped.

So, I wouldn’t get too excited if you see a really big explosion in Ukraine until you get such reports.

Stay Of Play For The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War For March 2, 2022: Contemplating The Fall Of Kyiv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.

My fear for the future of Ukraine.

Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.

What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.

If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.

So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.

Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War State Of Play For March 1st, 2022: An Uneven Debacle


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though we’ve reached a very unnerving moment in this war, where both sides can claim victories. It seems as though things could go either way at this point.

Either the Russians back down and sue for peace, or Putin escalates things to the point where some form of WMD are used. It really could go either way. And, what’s more, we don’t know the long-term stability of Russia at the moment. Russia could collapse in a rather abrupt manner, given all the sanctions being imposed on it at the moment.

Remember, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once as the old saying goes.

On the ground, there seems to be something of a stalemate. But the Russians have begun to grow more aggressive in some of the weapons they are willing to use. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

I guess the point right now is there isn’t really any big news. The Russians continue to collapse here and there, and yet pick up some territory as well. There are fierce battles going on for Kyiv and Kharkiv. But, for the moment, the cities continue to be in Ukrainian hands.

But, we’ll see. It will be interesting where things go from here.

The Fate Of Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. So, it seems logical to assume that we have to begin taking seriously the idea that Putin’s Russia is going to rapidly grow unstable.

Everything from a simple palace coup to revolution then civil war is possible at this point. You thought a war between Ukraine and Russia was bad, just wait until a nation full of WMD implodes with no ready endgame.

Call it the Great Reset or the Fourth Turning, history has suddenly and violently woken from its somnambulism. This is one of those inflection points where anything can, and will happen.

The great maw of history is now open, tearing up decades of stability, norms and tradition in what seems like the blink of an eye. And, honestly, I think this is just the beginning of a much longer period of global instability. I say this because the United States remains on course to face the existential choice of civil war or autocracy in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

And that would just be the beginning of that process.

Either way — autocracy or civil war — the likelihood of WW3 happening would greatly increase because in either case the United States would likely be knocked out of global commission for the foreseeable future. If Trump becomes president again, in could very well pull us out of NATO as part of his fascist America First agenda.

Or, if we have a civil war, then we bomb ourselves into oblivion…opening the door to WW3 happening because, well, lulz, we will be too preoccupied destroying ourselves to do anything about it.

All I can say is — gird your loins. The remainder of this decade could, in fact, be very, very bumpy. Talk about vibe shift! It could be so bumpy, in fact, that either we endup in an extremely divided, hostile world or a far more united world that is prepared to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War State of Play For February 28, 2022: Now What


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

State of play for February 28, 2022

Things continue to move quickly in the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. It definitely feels as though a number of different things are being put into place before the main event.

One thing that may happen in the next few days is a Siege of Kyiv. The Russians have a 40 mile convoy of military vehicles headed towards the Kyiv area. And it would make sense if they use all those vehicles to surround Kyiv and proceed to bomb it into oblivian.

But the main issue is how unstable things are right now. I just don’t know what the endgame is for all of this. Because there is the fear if Putin feels he’s in a box he may try to break out by using tactical or low grade nuclear weapons. If that happens, then we really are in a new era.

And not a good one.

The thing to keep in the back of your mind is the United States continues to careen towards a very dark, existential choice of autocracy or civil war starting around 2024 – 2025. So, in a sense, we’ve left the Rona Era and are now in a new era of some sort, the type where we don’t know where we will end up on the other side.

It could be that at some point after 2025, we will enter a far more united world because of the combination of a Second American Civil War and WW3. Or, the opposite could be true for the same reason. But, anyway, things have changed.