Tag: Republicans Are Fascist

Mulling The Possibility Of A Reproductive Rights ‘Dred Scott’ Decision


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two macro trends in the conservative movement make you say, “Hmmm.” One is how absolutely bloodthirsty MAGA-Qanon is becoming. They are so wrapped up in “owning the libs” that they are chomping at the bit to do away with politics altogether and just run around murdering people they don’t like.

The other macro trend is how absolute conservatives are in their desire to to something of a counter-revolution against the culture wars of the last few decades by stacking the Federal bench with as many young hack MAGA judges as they can possibly appoint while they have the power to do so.

This is an example of why I hate extremism.

Being so wrapped up in winning the culture wars after a number of social issues are already settled in the public eye might make conservative spooge their pants, but on a political front it might not be the best option for them. They are so consumed by their own Right wing echo chamber, that they are completely oblivious to the fact that if, say, not only is Roe V Wade overturned, but any form of contraception is effectively outlawed, that there might be significant backlash among a pretty big swath of voters, specifically — women.

Now, yes, I know we’re an autocratic managed democracy now and House Trump has destroyed American democracy under its jackboot. I know that lulz, nothing matters and I’m going to die in an ICE death camp soon enough. But there is a very real possibility that women across the political spectrum would be politically energized if there was something akin to a reproductive rights Dred Scott decision.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But it is a long-term thing to keep in the back of your mind going forward.

We Are So Fucked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A series of macro trends are all coming to a head very, very rapidly. In the United States, we all assume we will muddle through major political problems or simply punt them down the road until they’re moot.

But the election of 2020 is a unique political event. We already live in an autocratic managed democracy and Trump’s “victory” in 2020 will simply be the final nail in the coffin of an already dead republic. We’re going to drift in fits and starts, as we have for some time now, into an era of something along the lines of a semi-monarchical fascist state.

There are a few wild cards, of course.

One is Qanon.

It’s very easy to see that particular batshit insane element of the clusterfuck that is modern life growing so potent that some surreal — and extreme — things happen so rapidly that not until way, way, WAY too many people are dead in American Killing Fields do we finally do anything about it. It sounds hysterical now, but Qanon serves a very important purpose for a lot of dark forces at work in American culture and, so, lulz.

Autocrats never lose, so, really, the only minor hiccup in our immediate political future is when Trump “wins” and is extremely dumb and hamhanded about it all, what will be the reaction of the 38% of the electorate that is not in a personality death cult? We they get woke and take to the streets or will they simply shrug and resign themselves to being “Good Germans?”

But, in general, darkness has fallen over the United States. The bad guys have won. Either we’re an autocratic managed democracy like Russia or, because of Qanon, we turn into something a lot more like Nazi Germany than we’re will to admit to ourselves.

I honestly can’t game out which end of that spectrum is more likely. All I know is we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked for a long time. My current guess is about 40 years, given current demographic trends. Throw in global climate change, a limited nuclear war with the DPRK and the possibility of a Singularity and, well, things don’t look so great right now.

Again, if you can, get out of the country.

‘A House Divided’ — Unionism In The Age Of MAGA-Qanon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m by nature of a Lincoln Unionist. As such, I grow alarmed at the very idea that the Biden camp might, in desperation, encourage “Cascadia” (CA, OR, WA) to threaten to secede as part of a negotiating tactic once it becomes clear that Trump & Barr are going to ratfuck their way post-election to a “win.”

There are a number of reasons why this is, on the face of it, a dumb idea. The theory behind Biden doing this is they can get some much-needed Constitutional reforms (even though in the end House Trump would say in power.) Given how absolutely untrustworthy House Trump is, any notion that you could get concessions out of them that they might actually honor is ridiculous.

I, of course, don’t want any violence at all. But if the absolute worst happened, it makes a lot more sense for Blue States to stand and fight than to leave the Union. Now, to be clear, all of this is almost impossible for me to game out. I simply have no idea how, exactly, an actual “civil war” in the United States would work out.

But, as I’ve said, the first tip off we will have that this is Serious, is there will be significant political consolidation in Red and Blue States. This will happen in the form of places like Fox News, WSJ and NY Post literally being driven out of the city by angry Blue mobs. Meanwhile, it’s likely that within Red States all those fucking MAGA-Qanon fascists are going to begin to actively hunt down and murder liberals, hoping to drive liberals out of their states altogether. This is likely to happen very, very quickly as the two sides begin to figure out their war aims.

I think, in a sense, the scenario that suggests that Biden might even seriously contemplate such a “nuclear option” is really an expression of similar desperate attempts to keep the Union together during the 1860 – 1861 period. Even though on paper “Cascadia” could bounce out of the Union and do well, all attempt such attempt would do is give the US Military cover to put down the rebellion, just like they did the first one.

So, it seems as though a far better course of action would be to stay in the Union and attempt to court people like James Mattis (and others) who maybe are conservative but not MAGA so at least you would have their military training to tap into. No need to alienate them by attempting to leave the Union altogether

Also, remember, MAGA-Qanon, while very passionate and bloodthirsty, is only 38% of the electorate. No need to destroy the Union for that. Far better to for the majority of people who AREN’T completely insane to get their shit together and figure out how to re-unite the nation they all love.

But, I don’t know. It’s very obvious Interior Minister Barr is going to drop whatever legal nukes he has to for Trump to stay in office. So, unless the American people REALLY shock me, I think this is all moot. We’re just going to quietly slip into an autocratic managed democracy and that will be that.

What We Can Learn From The 1st American Civil War As We Lurch Towards The 2nd (Maybe)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I generally think anyone — regardless of political stripe — is being a bloodthirsty moron to be giddy at the prospect of a “Second American Civil War.” War is hell. It sucks. I don’t want it.

But it definitely seems as though should Trump not win election outright on Election Night even though the Russians lived up to their end of the bargain after Trump pulled 1/3 of our troops out of Germany, that the more difficult it is for him to “win” the more thuggish and ham-handed he will become. As such, Barr’s post-election ratfucking can only go so far.

There might come a point when the Blue States and Red States are actually at each other’s throats on a military level.

The beginning of the ACW1 indicates that after the shock wears off, the dynamics of history are not something anyone can easily predict. The thing that idiot MAGA-Qanon people are so delusional about is they seem to think that just because they have Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk on their side that somehow they’re going to win outright the moment such political violence begins to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is after some desperate last-ditch efforts to prevent it all, there will be significant consolidation in the respective parts of the country. Once it sinks in to the average American that they have to pick a side, no matter what, then some pretty fucking surreal things may happen. People you wouldn’t expect finally jump ship from the MAGA-Qanon personality cult might actually do it.

Or, put another way, the opening days of any civil war are going to be full of confusion. Both sides are going to wait for the other to make the first move. Lincoln, of course, was a genius at this and forced the South to officially start the war when he attempt to re-enforce Fort Sumter. The specifics will be completely different because, well, Trump is a high-functioning moron who will thrash about on Twitter as everything finally collapses.

One crucial issue is what the goals of each side would be as the civil war began. A lot of people think the Blue States would simply want to bounce, but I have some serious doubts. It makes a lot more sense that any civil war would be a pitched battle for the soul of the country.

Another interesting thing is Trump has a solid 38% of the electorate. That’s it. About 38% of the electorate is bloodthirsty enough, enough in the personality death cult that they would lunge at the opportunity to make “Q’s” dream of a liberal free America a reality.

But there are a shit-ton of Americans who simply want to live a peaceful life in a free country. And, as such, it’s reasonable to believe that Blue States (once they get their shit together and start taking things seriously) have a lot going for them.

One issue is, while I can generally game out things to Election Day, after that, I lose any ability to predict what might happen. So, yeah, we have postal service ratfucking. We have the bullshit Durham Investigation. We have Russians hacking direction into our election systems. All those things are a given.

But if somehow all those things fail to throw the election to House Trump, I honestly don’t know what is going to happen. It’s all up in the air. Remember, when you’re actually living through history, there’s no narrative or value. We GIVE it a narrative and value after the fact. We do so in hindsight so we — and future generations — can grasp what happened and why.

I will note that the first few years of ACW1 were years in which it was very touch and go for the Union. It wasn’t until Lincoln decided to make the war a war of liberation that the dynamic of the war changed significantly. So, I would tell Neo-Confederates whose political thought is nothing more than a “South Will Rise Again” grunt that history — especially in times of existential crisis — doesn’t go in a straight line.

But what do I know. The dystopian hellscape is already here. I just want to finish my novel.

Thinking The Unthinkable: Second American Civil War Prep


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ugh. The idea of America having any sort of major political violence is a gut punch. It’s just something I don’t want. Though, obviously, a lot of good old boys in the heart of Dixie are frantically searching the Internet about this revanchist fever dream — that’s why I have a little bit of an uptick in visits to this otherwise anonymous site.

I’m very content to keep working on my novel even as the country I love implodes. But there are a few things that make me uneasy about my own, personal fate, should the worst happen.

One is where I live. I live in Virginia, which should the absolute worst happen, is probably going to implode. Not only are there major historical sites in the state connected to the first American Civil War, but the Right is already screaming at the top of their lungs about how horrible it is to live in a state with a functioning democracy. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where should the absolute worst happen nationally, that Virginia is among the states where the first actual bloodshed occurs.

Another issue is, well, me. I’m not someone to sit idly by as the country collapses. Though he’s not some sort of personal hero or anything — I’m well aware of what a bloodthirsty tyrant he was — the person I can identify with as bolts pop off the Republic and water begins to rush in, is Trotsky. Something about how, as I understand it, he was hanging out in Vienna drinking coffee when the Revolution started seems like something that would happen to me. I also find it interesting that when he was in a power struggle with Stalin, he just choked. He just didn’t show up to really, really important meetings.

Regardless, I think I’m being extremely delusional. What’s more likely to happen is I’ll either be shot dead in the opening days of any political violence or I’ll try to help save the Union, but for various reasons I’ll just be what I am now — a nobody.

But I did learn something interesting from a parts of a YouTube talk by Jared Yates Sexton. He pretty much said we need to start treating an impending Second American Civil War the way we did the days before COVID19 struck the United States in a major way. That’s definitely something to take to heart. We don’t really think about when your country implodes that you might not be able to find food, have reliable communication or even electricity.

That, in itself, is rather deep.

And, really, I have serious doubts that there will be a civil war for the simple reason that autocrats always win. We’re just going to slink into an autocratic managed democracy and gradually, on a political level, become identical to Russia.

Honestly, it seems to me that the only reason we should be concerned about a civil war of any sort is the cold, hard fact that Trump is a fucking self-own artist. He’s a moron. That the fate of the Union rests on Trump self-owning doesn’t give me a lot of self-confidence.

In general, I think things are going to stay peaceful. The Russians will hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany and that will be that. It will all be something of a dud.

On Being A ‘Radical Moderate’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not a Leftist. In fact, I find it rather annoying that the only people right now taking the United States’ decent into a fascist managed democracy are Leftists. So, as I look for people to join with to figure out what to do in real life about MAGA-Qanon actually beginning to implement their fascist agenda in the United States, I’m not finding a lot of people to talk to.

I’ve come to believe I’m a “radical moderate.” What this means is I simply want things to go back to what they were in 2016. I don’t want to shit on America or rant about identity politics or “slay the patriarchy,” I just want a liberal democracy with a functioning political system.

It should not be that big a deal. But, tragically, it obviously is.

The reason why I think radical moderation is important is there are millions of Americans who don’t give a shit about scoring points on Twitter. All they care about is raising their kids, paying their mortgage and keeping their jobs. As such, should the worst happen, they are the people who are going to make the final decision about America’s fate.

If they just don’t care that tanks are rolling down their streets now or the only appeal they hear from people hoping to save what’s left of the Republic is how shitty America is, there’s a chance they will be so turned off that they will lulz it. Now, I know a lot of mainstream Democrats essentially are already giving a rather policy-driven approach to these types of people, but that’s a political solution.

When politics finally dies in the United States — probably because of dueling presidents — things are going to grow existential pretty quick. Appeals to this huge swath of Americas will be moot because it won’t be policy we’re fighting over, it will be for the soul of the country.

But it may be too late. The logic and moment for tyranny is well established. It may be that there isn’t even that much of a struggle when House Trump finally turns us into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy.

I just don’t know what to say about that prospect. Sometimes, you have to make your own hope, I guess.

The Fate of FOX News HQ In NYC Is The Canary In The Coal Mine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really, really don’t want a civil war of any sort in the United States, but I can’t help myself when it comes to wargaming how it might occur. A key issue is what people aren’t ready for is when Red States believe Trump is president and Blue States think Biden is president and, on a state level, those governments begin to act accordingly.

Now, I know the U.S. Military has said that they won’t do anything to determine who the president is if there is some question — and there will be — but they didn’t say anything about putting down a rebellion of the people who absolutely don’t think Trump (or Biden) is president.

Here’s one possible sequence of events.

Trump “wins” reasonably late in the post-election process, probably with a favorable decision from the Supreme Court. The whole thing is so ham-handed and poorly executed on the part of House Trump that on a pure optics level, it will seem to Blue States that Trump stole the election (which he did.) The populations of Blue States — mostly in cities — will grow so enraged by this theft that they will begin to take it upon themselves to make their anger clear.

It makes a lot of sense that one place where this might happen is NYC. That’s the center of media in the United States and both FOX News and the WSJ are located there. It’s very easy to imagine a situation where the population of the city grows so angry that they loot both headquarters (or worse) and the journalists there are forced to decamp to a Red State.

That would be the pretext for a House Trump crackdown on the Blue States. House Trump would assume they could do a knockout blow — and maybe they could — but it’s also possible that a la the beginnings of the original civil war the first round of victories on the part of Trumplandia will only happen because the Blue States are struggling to get their act together. As the crisis deepens, Blue State leaders with a clear vision as to what to do will bubble up to the surface and things grow far more complicated for everyone involved.

These leaders could come from any area of society. Once politics dies, then everything is throw up in the air and it’s not a matter of who you are, it’s matter of what you can do.

One last note — House Trump is going to shut down the media altogether soon after any major political violence begins. That could go as far as shutting down the Internet itself until they can purge people they don’t like.

While, yes, this will definitely give House Trump a “first mover advantage,” if they make it more difficult for people to look at online porn, the average person might sit up and take notice that their lives are demonstrably different.

I think I’m deluding myself, though.

Seems like there’s just too much momentum on the side of tyranny. The bad guys have won. Not until I see Twitter liberals begin to make plans for some pretty fucked up things in real life will I think there may be any hope. We’re fucked. It’s over.

Leave the country if you can.

Predictions Of The Near Future


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some predictions made from things we know are true now and then projecting their logical conclusion into the future.

  1. Kanye West As Jim Jones
    As some point in the near future, Kanye West is going to finally go completely bonkers in a destructive way. He already has all the elements of a cult leader and it makes sense that in the near future, he will finally jump into the void. So, the first step is he might establish some sort of compound for his followers. Then, next thing you know, a lot of people endup dead. A side prediction is things grow REALLY weird and Kanye slams into Qanon and, well, lulz.
  2. Millie Bobby Brown — 14 going on 24
    I’m a fan of Miss Brown, but she’s only 14 or so now. She really, really wants to be an adult. On one level, it’s inspiring to young girls and on the other, it’s really fucking dark. I don’t know when it will actually happen or how, but Miss Brown is just a girl and she’s hanging out with a bunch of horny adults — to the point of getting a “producer” credit — and human nature being what it is, I fear a tragedy of some sort may occur. It may come out 20 years from now in a tell-all memoir, but it WILL come out. As Drew Barrymore can attest — Hollywood is a cruel mistress to young children and some pretty fucked up things are bound to happen involving Miss Brown. But, lulz, it’s not like I can do anything about it.
  3. Trump “Wins” The 2020 Election
    This is an easy one. Trump is absolutely going to win, or maybe “not lose” is better, the 2020 Election. Don’t know the details, but all I know is come Jan 20th, 2021, he’s getting sworn in and that’s that. If that doesn’t happen, then there will be severe political violence in the United States, to the point that it’s marketed in the press as “the Second American Civil War.”
  4. The United States Will Leave NATO, Allies With Russia
    Connected to the above prediction, the United States is going to leave NATO and form an alliance with Russia. As part of this, Trumplandia will make an aggressive move to pull out all of our troops from all over the globe. China will rise to superpower status and the United States will implode into little more than a mixture of a first world Venezuela mixed with Apartheid South Africa and Russia.
  5. Constitutional Convention
    At some point in the near future, House Trump will codify Trumplandia and demand a Constitutional Convention. By this point, the press will have been purged and so, lulz, fuck you. A doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights” will be pushed through and Trump will be free to stay in office for the rest of his life. At some point, we’ll simply get used to a Trump being POTUS or Veep as a way of life. This will continue for about 40 years until the dead hand of demographics makes it untenable.
  6. Qanon As American Khmer Rouge
    At some point in the near future, Qanon and MAGA will fuse so absolutely that even otherwise “normal” people will have Qanon talking points at the ready. This may lead to a House Trump actively encouraging Qanon people to murder liberals in cold blood. House Trump may not actively participate, but once the press is nothing but OANN, they can simply look on as crazed, bloodthirsty Qanon people attempt to empty the cities and fill American Killing Fields with the bodies of liberals. This is kind of extreme to suggest it might happen, but the conditions for it to happen definitely will be there soon enough.

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s now self-evident that win, lose or draw, Trump is never leaving power. Never. He will burn the country to the ground — even go so far as to incite a civil war — rather than leave office.

In a sense, one of the worst case scenarios is Trump “wins” on Election Night and he continues to have a thin veneer of being a normal politician. While a lot of center-Left people will be upset — even to the point of violence — it will all be moot. Things will continue to seem “normal,” but the march to an autocratic managed democracy will only accelerate. He will continue to do the same bullshit he’s been doing for the last four years. It’s likely that his extremes will be more, well, extreme.

The press will be purged.
The United States will leave NATO.
There will be a Constitutional Convention.

All these things will follow the same, predictable cycle we’ve grown acustomed to. Twitter liberals — while they still exist — will joke about what Trump wants. Identity politics people will coo what a genius Nancy Pelosi is. And, in the end, Trump will get what he wants. Maybe not exactly in the way he wanted it, but the point will be made.

Once the Constitutional Convention happens, it grows more difficult for me to predict what will happen. Trump is old and deranged, so may be he’d name Don Jr or Ivanka as his successor? Or maybe there will simply be a succession of Trumps in either the POTUS or Veep slot for the next 40 odd years under the new, authoritarian Constitution.

Of course, there is the off chance that Trump has to force the issue of his re-election and the country implodes. It will be a tragedy with no obvious end game. But it may happen. I really don’t want any type of political violence, but Trump is such a moron that he might bungle what is otherwise a sure shot for him.

I just don’t see MAGA-Qanon accepting anything but total victory, so if a lot of things are obvious about MAGA-Qanon will become increasingly more difficult for Twitter liberals to ignore. MAGAQ is likely to start murdering people who oppose them in cold blood, even if Trump “wins” and continues playing coy about his real intentions.

The point is, we’re completely, totally fucked.

Trump’s popularity is unchanged despite the massive clusterfuck that is time in office. There is something existential and structural wrong with the United States and there’s simply nothing that can fix it.

Things are dark and going to get far, far darker in the coming years.

Blue States Are In A Better Position Than You Think Should A Second Civil War Occur


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really, really don’t want a civil war. I will note that while this blog gets about 100 views a day, I’m getting a minor uptick from Red States of people obviously stroking to the idea of a civil war.

This is surreal to me.

The reason is, if you look at the state of play in the country on opening day of any prospective civil war, Blue States are in a lot better strategic situation than you might think. A lot depends on what the goals of any such civil war might be. Remember, Trump is likely to have the military and first mover advantage, so he could very well serve Blue States a knock out blow before they could figure out what they wanted.

But let’s suppose the war aims of Blue States were not to leave the Union, but to unite the country under their banner a la the First American Civil War. While there might be a lot of talk about Blue States leaving the Union, I find that as a war aim is dubious.

The first thing I see when I see a realpolitik map of the United States is how weak the Red States are. That’s why it’s so dumb that Red State people are so eager to start killing people in the name of the Dear Leader. They are playing a really weak hand well because American politics is broken and the moment we’re not talking about politics but war, then the dynamic is totally different.

It’s easy to see how much of the country is Red and simply assume Red States could easily overwhelm the smaller (in geographic terms) the Blue States. The problem with this thinking is Red State people are conflating their political edge with an edge on the battlefield.

In real terms, it’s easy to imagine Blue forces from the West blitzkrieging across, say, Montana and linking up with other Blue forces in the Mid-West. While states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are “Purple” state politically, I seriously doubt if things became life-or-death that they would go Red. There would likely be a lot of political violence in the process of throwing their lot with the Blue states, but it would happen.

Anyway, I could imagine through sheer brute force Blue forces taking the entire Great Plains and Rocky Mountain areas pretty quick.

Now, this when you might say — but what about the South?

That’s a very curious situation. On one hand, the old CSA has a regional memory of rebellion, and, yet, there are two factors that make that not as clear cut as you might think.

One, is race. During the First American Civil War, if you weren’t a freed slave fighting for the Union, you were pretty docile on a macro level. But I seriously doubt a replay of that. The moment Southern Whites using the current political dominance to begin implementing their MAGAQ agenda, something akin to a race war might break out. That, in itself, would greatly weaken the ability of what is otherwise a pretty densely populated part of the country from being easily defended.

Another issue for the old CSA states — especially Texas and portions of Florida — is once things grew existential, there are a lot of moderate people there that would be aghast at the prospect of essentially American Nazis taking over their states. This is a dynamic that would lead a number of old CSA states to implode.

Speaking of imploding states, I suspect within days of any Second American Civil War erupting, Virginia would implode rather dramatically. Virginia is two states — one Red, one Blue — and they hate each other. So, it’s easy to imagine the state becoming completely ungovernable on a political level because the rural parts of the state would rebel against the urban, progressive portions of the state. Things would grow more murky, as well, because of the historical connection Virginia has to the CSA. I could see a lot of Red militants wanting to control cultural touchstones like Richmond and Danville so they could have a link to the past.

One area where Red States (MAGAQ) would have a serious advantage at the beginning of any such civil war is leadership. Add to this MAGAQ being a personality death cult and they would, at first, likely appear to consolidate their power quite quickly. But it’s human nature that even your fey latte swilling hipsters would rise to the occasion if they were staring death in the face. Some basic aspects of human behavior have not changed, no matter how much MAGAQ think they have a monopoly on such things.

But I doubt things would be this clear cut, especially in the beginning. As I said, Trump would have control of the military and a rabid, bloodthirsty 38% of the electorate to turn to. So, it’s possible there would be a knockout blow and there would just be simmering political resentment as Trump turned America into Russia on a political level.

And, yet, Trump is such a fucking moron, that it’s equally easy to see him somehow bungling a sure thing to dramatically that the necessary political and military moves needed for Blue States to engage in a pitched battle with Red States could take place.

But the above is really the absolute worst case scenario.

More likely, everything will be wrapped up on Election Night and we’ll just gradually, in fits and starts, turn ourselves into Russia. Or, put another way, the harder it is for Trump to win, the more radical he will become and the chances of an actual civil war breaking out increase.

Autocrats never lose.