As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.
And, yet.
I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?
That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.
Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.
I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.
Given how we’re careening towards what seems like the inevitable fate of Trump winning a second term, we have to start gaming out what the fuck we’re going to do. We can’t just put all our chips in the “vote harder” gambit and assume that will be enough.
As of now, early February 2024, it seems as though Trump is going to win and attempt to establish some sort of white Christian ethnostate the moment he’s in office. As such, we have to game out what the fuck we’re going to do.
A lot depends on Traditionalists. If Trump goes full tyrant and traditionalist conservatives just keep their head down and become good Germans then, well, we’re totally and completely fucked.
But if they actually show some of that principle that they’re so well known for, then, well, we’re going to the show. While they may not participate in any sort of Direct Action against Trump if he goes full tyrant, they MIGHT look the other way if there was a massive General or Women’s Strike specifically designed to cripple the government so Trump is deposed.
I have my doubts. No matter what, late 2024, early 2025 could be one of the most historic eras in America history.
I’m still smarting over some fucking Twitter liberal putting me on blast for simply believing that it won’t be the of the story if Trump wins re-election in the fall. This nattering nabob of negativism seems to think that our only choice is to “vote harder” and it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll turn into German 1933 the moment Trump has power again.
I find this extremely aggravating. I don’t think it’s “optimistic” to suggest that SOME SORT of severe reaction will happen within Blue parts of the USA if Trump goes full tyrant. Seems pretty dark to me. Now, obviously, if Trump goes full tyrant, there’s a chance that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country.
But that still leaves a shit ton of very angry Blues spread across the third largest nation by geography and population. I don’t want to have to depose the POTUS in a revolution then have to worry about a civil war when Red States leave the Union in protest.
That would not be fun or cool or “optimistic.”
Anyway. I am not prepared to give up if Trump wins. For me, it won’t be the end of the story, it will be a new beginning in which we will all be tested and forced to figure out what we will risk our lives and scared honor IN THE REAL WORLD to protect.
On a macro, structural basis, the “vibes” that are tearing the United States apart at the moment all go back to white people being unhappy with demographic trends. Everything from abortion to immigration boils down to — not enough sweet, sweet little white babies being born for the liking of racist, misogynistic white people who hate the browning of America and the mainstreaming of feminist ideals.
In a sense, we probably should just accept our fate — the moment ANY Republican is president, the US is going to become a Hungary-style autocratic state. ANY Republican president, no matter who that might be, will ignore democratic norms and twist and warp the wording of the Constitution to get what they want — a white Christian ethnostate.
And, yet, there is one person who might stop that from happening — malignant ding-dong Trump.
The reason why I suggest this is Trump is so bad at actually governing that given the opportunity to be an autocrat, there’s a pretty good chance that he will so piss everyone off that he could very well be deposed. (I’m not advocating anything!)
Any other Republican in his position could easily and peacefully transition the US into an autocratic state. But Trump. Oh boy. He is going to thrash around to the point that even the people who would be the core of his support — Traditionalists who would otherwise be “Good Americans” — might sit up and take notice.
It took Putin a few years to move Russia into the autocratic state it is now. Trump is so dumb and lazy — and so impatient — that he could just kind of freak out from the moment he’s in office to the point that even your most laid back (white) Traditionalists might, just might at least look the other way if there was some sort of General Strike to bring down Trump.
As of right now, at least, it definitely looks like late 2024, early 2025 is going to s u c k.
I don’t know what to tell you, folks, other than maybe “Watch out for that last step.” Now, in February of 2024, it definitely seems as though the only way we prevent Trump from being POTUS again is some sort of Black Swan event that I just can’t predict.
I continue to believe that people are looking at the potential of a Second Trump Administration all wrong. It will be so tyrannical and such an aberration compared to anything we’ve ever seen before that I don’t think it’s “optimism bias” to think the reaction to Trump’s ham-handed tyranny could be just as unprecedented.
As I keep saying, America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.
At a minimum, it will take time for Trump to build out an SA-like infrastructure to remind Blues to keep their heads down and mouths shut. I keep musing on the idea that Trump is somehow deposed in a Glorious Revolution, then that, in turn prompts a Second American Civil War.
That, in turn, causes World War 3.
And, yet, I just can’t predict the future. No one can. And there is every reason to believe that either Biden is peacefully re-elected, or Trump really does get to be a tyrannical autocrat and we all just lulz it.
Though I do think that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country once it becomes clear that Trump is actually going to do what he was elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat.
A number of things are coming together at the same time to destabilize the United States. Everything from negative polarization to income inequality is eating away at the very fabric of the greatest nation in world history.
I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the 2024 presidential silly season.
There is every reason to believe we will, but even if we do, we could very well peacefully slide into autocracy under a second Trump Administration. They key thing for me is the Republican Party wants an autocratic white Christian ethnostate sooooo fucking bad that, in a sense, Trump is all that stands in the way of the getting their goal.
Not because he’ll lose, but because if he wins, he could very well rile everyone up so much in the ham-handed manner in which he tries to establish that autocratic white Christian ethnostate that there’s a “Glorious Revolution” by Blues and he’s deposed — not that I’m advocating anything!
Anyway. A lot is going wrong in the US right now. But for my worst fears to come true — that the US would collapse into revolution and / or civil war — a lot more shit would have to go wrong.
Hopefully, at a minimum, we’ll just peacefully turn into an autocracy and I’ll figure out some way to leave the country.
One of the absolutely bonkers element of any second Trump Administration is the fact that he will be gunning for something we all taken for granted — birthright citizenship. This make me both very angry and very alarmed because the first thing fascists — like the Nazis — do is start to fuck with who is a “citizen.”
I have conversations with my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and their reaction to the potential demise of something as fundimental as birthright citizenship is a real life shrug emoji. They just don’t care. All they care about is “securing the border” to the point that when you press them about how they plan to deport 20 million undocumented people — they just laugh.
They don’t care, they just want it to happen, damn the consequences.
So, it definitely seems as though if Trump is re-elected that many of my dystopian fears for his first term will come to fruition. I just don’t know what to tell you folks. It definitely FEELS like I may very well lose my citizenship and find myself in a Trump-branded concentration camp at some point after 2025 if I can’t manage to sell the novel I’m working on and get the hell out of the country.
It is growing more and more apparent to me that should, God forbid, Trump get re-elected that there is only one Red Line for most Traditionalists — the personal. Otherwise, they will be so happy that brown kids are again being torn from their mothers and put in cages that it will all be a lulz.
But when things get personal, then, yeah, Traditionalists might stop being Good Germans.
The only reason why I even bring such a thing up is Trump is so dumb and lazy that he is the only person who might thrash around in such a tyrannical manner as soon as he has power again that the people who should be the core of his support — center-Right Traditionalists — might actually become “Radical Moderates” just long enough for him to be successfully deposed.
Even this is very iffy.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe we really are going to go straight into a dystopian MAGA Nazi future where people like me are snatched off the street an no one — no even Traditionalists who are related to me — will care or notice.
And, yet, at least now, in early 2024, I’m not prepared to assume that that is the case. I’d like to think that if Trump really does go full tyrant on us that because of the Red Line of the personal that Traditionalists might, just might, look the other way if Trump has to be deposed. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)
It definitely will be interesting to see how, exactly, things play out going forward. Just from my conversations with my far more conservative Traditionalists relatives — whom I love dearly — we are in a lot — A LOT — of trouble if Trump is re-elected.
They just don’t believe that Trump is going to do all the shit that he has made very clear that he is going to do if he’s re-elected. I keep talking about Agenda 47 and Project 2025 and they look at me like they have no idea what the hell I’m talking about.
All I can say is, yet again, that late 2024, early 2025 is going to be VERY INTERESTING.
The thing about having a discussion on Twitter is everyone is running around with scissors and even when you agree with someone, sometimes, they feel obliged to disagree with you.
That’s what happened to me recently when I got into a debate about what might happen if Trump wins this year. There were all these people who telling me that if Trump goes full tyrant on us, then, that’s it. We’ll just become Nazi Germany Redux and no one is going to do anything about it.
I have some serious doubts.
But my doubts are so nuanced that it’s just not possible for people on Twitter to comprehend that I actually agree with them, with a few caveats.
The issue for me is if it was anyone else but Trump in charge of our transition into autocracy, then, yes, we would become an autocratic state without much trouble. But this is Trump we’re talking about.
There is a real risk that rather than him gradually guiding us into what seems inevitable at this point — autocracy — that he will thrash around and be so ham-handed in his efforts that he will make a lot of Blue America very very angry.
I’m not advocating anything, but if Trump just overnight turns himself into a dictator, that will bump into America’s self-perception. And that is why I think there is a chance that Trump, specifically, might be deposed in some way if he does all these crazy dictatorial things he is proposing.
America 2025 will not be Germany 1933. In 1933, Germans were ready and willing to embrace fascism. In America 2025, we’re talking about a huge, diverse and decentralized nation where not only is the military a foundation of our democracy, but the forces of fascism don’t have an SA to run around and knock heads.
And it will take time for an SA to be built out, even if the fascists wanted to create enough storm troopers to round up 20 million people to deport them. And that would be a window of opportunity for, say, a General Strike. But, of course, there is a real possibility that about 1 million wealthy Blues will simply flee the country rather than be the core of any sort of effort to topple ding-dong Trump.
I was accused of “optimism bias” on Twitter by someone who should know better simply because I believe it’s within the realm of possibility that Trump might be deposed.
JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.
I just can’t believe that if Trump does all the fucking bullshit that he is planning that the entire country is just going to shrug and let him do it. Really? Someone thinks that?
I know that, in general, Americans are pretty laid back, but if Trump starts to literally round up 20 million people and to go after his political rivals in a direct way… SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE IS GOING TO NOTICE.
I simply refuse to believe that Trump could go full tyrant and there wouldn’t be consequences of some sort. The US is too decentralized, too big, too diverse and has too much a tradition of democracy for Trump to go full tyrant without there being an effort to depose him.
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