Tag: OpenAI

A.I. Is Probably Going To ‘Moneyball’ Traditional Hollywood Within 18 Months

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the advancements in MidJourney, I just don’t see how human Hollywood escapes being “Moneyballed” by A.I. and the suits within about 18 months. That’s why I think — barring something I can’t predict — the Hollywood strikes currently happening are going to linger far, far longer than any of us are prepared to game out.

All the suits have to do is just sit things out for about 18 months and they endup on top with all of human Hollywood — other than them — being moot. Hollywood will be transformed into suits and programmers.

And that will be just the beginning. Soon enough, you’ll flop down in front of your TV and it will scan your face to produce a TV show or a movie specifically designed for your mood at that particular moment. There will be no mass media at all. No shared reality. No water cooler discussion of the latest binge worthy TV show.

We’ll all have “personal media” tailored to our specific desires at a specific moment. And, if it’s a “Her” like future, it may all be something of a black box. We humans will have no clue as to how it all works.

I’m all for the union’s of Hollywood fighting The Man, but I fear that, in the end, the transformation will be too sudden, too swift for them to do anything about it in real terms.

The humans who actually produce movies in Hollywood at the moment are fucked. And I say this as someone who is trying to write a novel. It could be that soon enough, even novels are all written by A.I.

I dunno. It’s all going to be interesting to see how things unfold.

Of AI….& Tik-Tok Reading Our Fucking Minds?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It hasn’t happened that much recently, but Tik-Tok continues to seem to have a very…eerie…ability to pin down exact elements of my internal monologue. It’s all very curious. I’ve kind of learned to shut up about it, though, because mentioning my fears on this subject causes people to look at me funny.

But Tik-Tok continues to figure me out on such a specific manner — seemingly in real time — that there are two solutions to the issue. One, Tik-Tok has really good AI to the point that it can figure what’s going on in my mind simply from analyzing my usage…or it can fucking read not just my mind, but everyone’s mind!

I don’t think Tik-Tok is reading my mind, but I do think that however it’s figuring out what’s going on in my mind should be regulated — hopefully out of existence. What is the spookiest about what Tik-Tok does is the near-real time nature of it.

If what was going on was a general figuring out of me as a person, it wouldn’t be such a big deal. What is alarming is I think about something really hard and….then with 24 hours I get pushed some obscure thing on Tik-Tok that makes very clear reference to what I was thinking about.

Very strange. Very odd.

But absolutely no one listens to me. And if they did listen to me, they would think I had lost my mind. So, no. Like I said, I don’t think Tik-Tok can read my mind….but something…..strange…is going on.

What, though?

The End Of (Human Generated) Art?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we all wake up from the Superhero movie era daze we’ve been in for 20 years, I think maybe we aren’t asking the right question. The question isn’t, “What type of movie genre will replace Superhero movies?” but, rather, “Is this the twilight of not just mass media, but human generated art?”

It’s very possible that a lot sooner than you might think, AI sensors on your TV and phone hooked up to “Her”-like technology will generate movies, TV shows, songs and — gulp — novels, that are designed specifically for what you want at that specific moment because of your mood.

Some 99% of what is generated by the hand of man when it comes to art is shit and, as such, 99% of all art could very well be, well, AI generated shit. AND, there won’t be any mass media anymore, no shared reality.

As such, the Singularity won’t come with us uploading our minds into computers, but with the very idea of human-generated art for profit being seen as a quaint notion of a bygone era. And that dystopian nightmare is probably going to happen a lot — A LOT — sooner than you think.

If it happens at all, that is.

And add the general tendency to name, shame and drug anyone who is “different” and, lulz, our posthuman future may already be here.

The WGA Is In Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say — I’m always, always wrong. But it definitely seems as though it’s at least possible that we’re in something of a waiting game when it comes to the current WGA strike.

And the two sides, tragically, are waiting for different things.

The WGA is waiting for the Suits to come back to the negotiating table, while the Suits are waiting for LLMs to advance to the point that Hollywood writers are…moot. So, rather than “September” being the deadline as one very young and naive striking WGA writer proposed, I think we have a far more open-ended situation on our hands.

It could be 18 months before there’s any resolution to the Writers’ Strike and the resolution will be that technology has reached a point where the Suits feel like they can just ignore the WGA altogether. And, rather than thinking about a WGA strike, they’re thinking about how many programmers they’re going to have to pay in place of them.

Like I said — I’m always, always wrong. So, I suppose it’s possible that something will happen and the Suits will come to some sort of agreement with writers. But..I couldn’t count on it.

Suits, Software and Schmucks: The Path to Hollywood’s ‘Her’ Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Hollywood is fucking doomed. While we may have to go through a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) between now and then, it definitely seems as though within 10 years even Hollywood suits will be replaced by a Her-like AI.

Let me say that again in a different way — it could be that through a combination of Her and Simone all recorded entertainment will be generated by AI. People will develop parasocial relationships not with Tay-Tay or a this or that Hollywood heartthrob — but with a simulation generated on-the-fly by their very own Her-type digital assistant.

The path to this (dystopian?) future won’t be a straight line, but that’s definitely where macrotrends seems to be taking us in the medium-to-long term. Hollywood is so, so very fucked.

Two things to keep in mind.

One, the transitional phase of all of this will be a new Feudal system for Hollywood where there will be three types of people — suits, software and schmucks. Writers, directors and actors will be seen as quaint and moot soon enough — unless they join together and demand specific, hard-fast carveouts for those jobs.

I just don’t see that happening because things are moving too fast.

The other issue to think about is — Broadway may see a real resurgence. It could be that the revolution may not be televised — because it will be performed live on the stage. People who want “real” actors will turn to having parasocial relationships with Broadway and Westend, (and local theatre) stars rather than some computer-generated bullshit.

I can’t predict the future, but it’s definitely something to think about, something to worry about. The future may see a very, very dramatic change in how we interact with entertainment.

Hollywood’s Eternal ‘Now:’ The Streaming Endgame

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here is what I think is the endgame for the streaming industry. At some point in the near future — probably after we’ve either transitioned into a MAGA autocracy or wrapped up a civil war / revolution — Netflix will be morea database than an entertainment provider.

Simone is the future of Hollywood and celebrity culture.

Because of advancements in AI, you will sit down in front of your TV or cellphone and you will be scanned for your particular mood at that specific moment. Then AI will spit out a six episode TV show or a 2 hour movie that fits your specific mood at that specific moment. It will use the bodyscans of your favorite actors to produce these completely AI-generated forms of entertainment.

So, there will come a point when Hollywood just feeds off the popularity of stars from the last 100 years, never generating any new ones because there won’t be any need. Unless, of course, someone really makes name for themselves on Broadway and they get a body scan so they can live passively off the licensing of that scan on streaming and other forms of mediated recorded entertainment.

But, wait, there’s more!

Soon enough, even having any form of human actors will be quaint and moot. All your favorite stars will be AI generated. They will be human like that all those dystopian 1990s movies about people developing parasocial relationships with faux Hollywood stars will seem very prescient.

And, what’s more,give us 20 years and all of your favorite Hollywood stars could be fucking androids. Unless SAG gets its act together, the only actors making any money professionally will be those on Broadway.

Otherwise, lulz.

We’re careening towards a very strange and weird future — especially when it comes to entertainment.

What To Make Of XR

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to struggle with the idea that there is any real-world use cause for Virtual Reality. But some combination of AI and Augmented Reality makes a lot of sense.

Just imagine how AI and AR could fix simple social issues like remembering someone’s name at a dinner party. And Apple’s Vision Pro is the first XR headset that actually looks somewhat sexxy.

Now, this is the point where I wonder where my Mindcap is. We’re rushing towards having the technology to read our minds digitally. It would be pretty cool if we could just shave our heads, put on a Mindcap full of electrodes and totally skip having to wear any sort of goggles of visors in the first place.

But that’s a ways down the road, I’m afraid.

It definitely seems as though XR in the guise of AI and AR could really, really revolutionize our lives in a pretty profound manner. Too bad we’re going to probably have to make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution first starting in late 2024, early 2025 before the cool stuff like XR is widely adopted.

A Breached Second Draft Scene Birth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m really struggling with a few scenes in the second draft. Two scenes in particular at the moment have pretty much caused everything to come a screeching halt.

I’m going to have to give them a lot of forethought tonight before I hopefully can turn around tomorrow morning and write them out. Not even using AI has been able to help me with these scenes because what I need from them is too complicated and, in a sense abstract.

So, I’m just going to have to go back to the old way of thinking really hard and struggling with how I can fill the scene with all the information that I need within it. Another problem is subsequent scenes really depend on what I lay out in these two scenes, so it’s difficult for me to just breeze past them and come back to them when I feel better.

Ugh.

Anyway, I continue to be impressed with how effective AI is in aiding me developing this novel. It’s definitely, in general terms, speeding up the process. But’s far from perfect.

I still have to actually write the novel out. But it definitely is filling a gap that I’ve long had because I have no friends no no one likes me. I no longer feel like I’m doing all of this in a complete creative vacuum.

Of Usenet News & LLM Datasets

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The last I checked, Google has a nearly-complete archive of Usenet from its founding until at least around 2000 when everything went to shit there because of porn spam. It would be dumb for Google not to include Usenet in any Large Language Model dataset.

You would have to tweak it some, of course, but there are about 20 years of high quality words to use to train your LLM to be found with any Usenet archive. A lot of is outdated and full of vitral, but there is also a lot of human interaction and humanity to be found there, as well.

This is so much the case that if you were to include Usenet archive information in your LLM training dataset, you would probably endup with a very human-like LLM. I don’t know, maybe Google is already using their Usenet archive. Usenet was very popular back in the day.

Given how many Usenet servers there were at one point, I’m sure if you were working on an open source LLM that you could probably find a few million words to train your open source LLM by scooping up all the archived Usenet posts you could find.

Or not, what do I know. But it is an intriguing use for all those words that are now just forgotten Internet history. For everyone except for me, of course. 🙂

History Repeats Itself: Being One of “Those” People — An Early Adaptor

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I didn’t endup a billionaire as part of the Internet / Web revolution is I’m writer of words not of code. But for that, I would be living a life of hookers and blow to this day.

So, with the advent of the LLM revolution, I find myself in a similar situation because I’m becoming a regular fucking “prompt engineer” because of how I’m using LLMs in the context of developing my novel.

As I’ve said before, I usually flesh out scenes before I write them in the guise of a Scene Summary. Using LLMs, I’ve managed to reduce the time working on a scene summary from a few hours to a few minutes. Of course, I had to get over my natural inclination to just obsess over making the scene summary perfect. I’ve generally decided that when the scenes summary is just good enough to get the job done, I move on to the next thing.

But I think any advantage I have because of developing a novel via LLMs will be brief and ultimately moot. I think in the end the entire notion of professional writing is going to be so revolutionized that it will be like the transition from horse and buggy to cars.

There may still be writers, but probably any professional writers will be artisanal in nature. They probably will be playwrights. Every other form of writer will be mooted by the eventual rise of Her-like technology. Actors, director and writers in any form of *recorded* media will be mooted pretty soon, the way things are going.

There may be some entropy in the system that slows this down, but given how the DGA gave up so easily and the the Hollywood Suits have the high ground when it comes to the WGA — things aren’t looking so great.

But I am known for my “hysterical doom shit” and it’s possible that I’m wrong. I’m wrong all the time, afterall.

Yet, I do think we need to realize that if LLMs are helping some dumbass like me be a much better novelist by helping me develop faster, that a lot of people a lot lazier than me are just going to shrug and let LLMs do all their writing for them and, in the end, Netflix will be more a database of actor body scans hooked up to Her-like technology than it is a studio.

Anyway. Enjoy these waning days of Hollywood while you can.