Tag: Now What

#CapitolRiot: What Did Trump Know & When Did He Know It?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump just can’t keep a secret. So, given his public comments leading up to January 6th, it’s beginning to appear as though Trump may have known a lot more about what was going on than we now know.

Usually, during a Trump Era scandal, this is the point when an audiotape of Trump saying something incriminating happens. We all get upset for a few days, then we move on.

But, for the time being, this moment in time feels different and so if something like that did pop out, Trump would face some severe political consequences. Even if he’s got one foot out the door.

I have a general sense at this point that Trump probably knew a lot more about the details of the Capitol Riot than you might think. I doubt he was involved in the specific planning — he can’t keep a secret, after all — but he knew how big the event was going to be and that he might be able to stage a coup using the existing infrastructure that was being built out.

Yet for the time being, I think Trump is going to escape justice yet again. He’s almost out of office and even his extra-political, extra-legal or extra-Constitutional options are kind of limited right now. He could maybe do something in a spasm of panic, but he’s done none of the hard work of autocrat.

My fear now is he’s going to grow extremely passive-aggressive to the point that we start to think he’s a danger to himself our us.

Of Trump Potentially Using The ‘Presidential Text Alert System’ Instead of Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m pretty good, in a vague way, of calling what Trump is going to do in the Final Days. I pretty much called the significance of January 6th, though I didn’t call anything specific — just that it would be important.

But anyway.

One interesting thing is Trump still hasn’t snapped like I thought he would. I thought he would get into a logic trap and go REALLY CRAZY. But he’s still the usual olde crazy. One sign we would get that he was totally off the reservation would be if he started to do a quick succession of things that did not really help him as the House rushes to impeach him — again.

One of those things would be to use the Presidential Text Alert System — usually reserved for, like, announcing nuclear war — as something akin to a replacement for Twitter now that he’s lost that account.

There’s a lot to take into account on this front.

Remember, in real terms, Trump’s era is over, so he would have to do something that slowed time down significantly for there to be a even more of a mad rush to get rid of him. Trump has yet to do something REALLY FUCKING CRAZY like incite sedition using the Presidential Text Alert System to shoot out a tweet to everyone in America’s phone. In, fact, he seems pretty chill compared to what I expected he would be at this point.

Something would have to change, and change fast — like in the next 48 hours. Yes, he’s supposed to have a press conference at the Alamo, but, really, even if he went Howard Beale at such a conference, he only has less than two weeks in office.

The Final Days of Trumplandia.

Trump would have to go transactional — start a war, tell his followers to overthrow the government in a specific type way or, say, use the Presidential Text Alert System to do any number of really crazy transactional things.

But him just blabbering at a press conference wouldn’t be enough. He’s been doing that for some time now — four years — and it was only when he went transactional in front of a crazed hoard near the Capitol that it mattered to anyone.

So, really, while Trump is, in fact, a massive self-own artist, as of right this second, he’s going to escape justice, just like he always does. Only time will tell.

Let’s Talk ‘#Texit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I know it’s “fun” for Red States to talk secession, it all seems rather dumb to me. Not only are Blue States better positioned to win a Second Civil war because they have bigger populations in smaller areas, have bigger economies and better educated people, the whole issue of race makes secession pretty difficult to imagine.

But right now, it’s “Texit” that seems to have caught the popular imagination among some ding-dongs. Let’s look at it.

For me, Texit isn’t viable for a whole slew of reasons. One is, if you wanted to pass it via a popular vote, there are too many patriots and moderates (and liberals!) in Texas for it to come anywhere near passing. And, as I mentioned, the issue of race makes Texit a pipe dream. I just can’t see black people rolling over and letting a fundamentally racist endeavor take place.

So, for Texit to happen, it would have to happen in the context of a broader secession crisis. Some sort of “political 9/11” would have to happen to so enrage Red State governments that they don’t have a popular vote, but rather snap Secession Conventions. There’s a huge swath of states in the middle of the lower 48 that could easily leave the Union under such conditions. And there best bet would be some sort of negotiated, peaceful departure.

Sadly, for them, I just don’t see that happening.

I just can’t imagine the Biden Administration lulzing 17 states or so leaving the Union. There will be blood, as they say. And the states in question are generally so small in population that the U.S. Military would make swift work of them.

And here’s where Texit comes into play.

As a member of the old CSA, a lot of good old boy Texans would go nuts in the passion of the crisis and demand Texas join its “wayward sisters.” It seems to me that rather than leaving the Union, Texas, itself, would implode. It would have its OWN civil war as the Red and Blue communities within it went at it.

So, in the end, Texas wouldn’t be much good to any new Trumplanian Republic because it would be too busy having its own civil war to join in.

And, let me stress this again — I’m from the South and the “Lost Cause” mythos is everywhere here. But the African American community simply isn’t going to allow a new CSA to be born. If MAGA cocksuckers in the old CSA tried to link up with the lily white Trumplandia states in the center of the country, there would likely be a race war.

Or, at least it would get very, very messy.

States like Virginia, Florida…and Texas would implode because of their internal political divisions.

The issue right now is, America is very fragile politically. If there is no catalyst, then it’s possible we’ll just drift in neutral for two years until Republicans win the House and turn around and impeach Biden for Hunter Biden’s laptop or something.

Something pretty big would have to happen at this point to change that future. Hopefully, nothing will.

The Dead Hand Of History: ‘A Do The Right Thing’ Ending For America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But it definitely seems as though the Dead Hand of History is about to strike the United States at some point between now and, say, March 2021. The black goo of destruction is there, waiting to be used. All the conditions for a civil war or a revolution exist in the United States right now and it’s just a matter of some hot head somewhere flipping the switch.

Or, to put it another way — as I understand it, at the end of the movie Do The Right Thing, Mookie simply out of the blue throws a trashcan through a window, starting a riot. The same with the United States right now — something random could happen out of the blue and cause the United States to buckle in a rather spectacular fashion.

It will be a quantum leap beyond what happened with 9/11 because the center will not hold, as they say. Whatever it is, will cause political violence to roll across the country. Red people in Blue states and Blue people in Red states won’t feel safe anymore and they will flee their home. The two sides will, in turn, not only hard their political views, but grow more radical.

I could see Trump Tower — and FOX News — being seized and gutted in New York City and maybe even a Free State of NYC being established. Or something. Something whereby you have to risk your life and sacred honor specific on your political views — do you support Trump or Biden? You could die if you don’t answer correctly at the right time.

And, really, either the U.S. Military at last has to step in or even they won’t be able to do anything about it because the officers go Blue and the enlisted go Red, or even more dramatic than that with the entire U.S. Military imploding much like it did during the original Civil War.

Regardless, the point is — if we manage to punt this crisis down the road, the corrosive conditions that created this crisis aren’t going anywhere. We will simply kind of be a zombie Republic until Trump comes back in 2024 and finishes the job he started. Or it will be Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo. Or whomever.

Or, put another way — either we address the existential problems we face now, or we face the later. But there’s no escaping them.