Tag: National Divorce

Lazy Observations About Vivek Ramaswamy’s Talking Points

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still find it curious that Vivek Ramaswamy hasn’t managed to gain significant popularity in the polls, since he makes all the right people angry. And, yet, here we are. Trump is just as popular as ever and Vivek continues to poll in the single digits.

Here are some very lazy observations about his talking points — I’ve done no research and I’m just doing it off the top of my head.

The most notable talking point to me is how Vivek never misses an opportunity to slip in a reference to a National Divorce. I think this gives us a pretty good sense of the audience he’s trying to reach. He is scooping up the fears and concerns of the far far Right and trying to validate them in an effort to pry some of them off of Trump.

All this talk about a National Divorce — no matter how chipper he may be as he says it — has only managed to make people like me more concerned about what will happen if malignant ding-dong Trump manages to lose the 2024 election. I can’t predict the future, but it definitely seems as though there is simply no way to avoid a massive, historic political event of some sort involving the 2024 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the other thing I hear a lot from Vivek is always pivoting to “the future” whenever some stupid thing that Trump comes up in conversation. I get what he’s trying to do. Not only does it allow him to dodge questions about the past, it gives him a bright, sunny “Morning Again In America” type vibe, even if it’s from a fucking fascist POV.

Lastly, the other issue he keeps blathering about is not only raising the voting age to 25, but requiring young people to take a civics test to vote. Not only is this fascist, but it’s also ironic given that Vivek has repeatedly shown that HE can’t pass basic American civics.

Anyway. We’re fucked. Good luck!

Is Our Future All A Matter of Branding?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the fucking “Fourth Turning” that the US is careening towards is if we have some sort of “Second American Civil War” either Reds or Blues could be the ones who serve papers in a National Divorce. And, yet, the case could be made that if Reds leave the Union, it’s a Second American Civil War and if it’s Blues who leave the Union, it will be something more akin to a Second Revolution.

I say this because of the temperment of the two sides. Because of the deep echo of the failed CSA nation-state in the South, the idea of a new Red Nation plays well with the MAGA base. Meanwhile, while Blues might get fed up with the US shifting into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate, if they actually put up a fight, they’re more likely to do something more along the lines of a “revolution” rather than “civil war.”

What I mean by that is — if Blues decide to stand their ground at last against the rise of autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism in the United States, their war aims would probably be more about toppling the MAGA Nazi regime rather than starting a new “Blue Nation.” I’m aware that some of that is confirmation bias because that’s MY current thinking on the issue, but lulz.

But I don’t think we have anything to worry about — instead of a revolution or civil war or whatever the fuck you want to call it, we’re going to slip peacefully into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate and hopefully — hopefully — this will help me in my effort to sell my first novel which is pretty much the beginning of a six novel project where I use subtext to fucking rant about how much I fucking hate MAGA.

What’s So Funny ‘Bout Peace, Love & Understanding?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the fact that it would cause the world to descend into chaos, death and destruction, I would be prepared to call MAGA’s bluff on a National Divorce. In fact, I think,but for the prospect of civil war, revolution and WW3, that Blues should leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should it be clear that we’re going to become a white Christian ethnostate.

And, yet, I hate violence, so, lulz, I guess I have to root for Ron DeSantis being the Republican nominee so the risk of civil war goes down to pretty much zero but we still turn into a white Christian ethnostate.

In other words — we’re fucked.

No one is prepared for what is about to happen to the United States, one way or another. I suppose we might punt our systemic, structural problems down the road a little bit more, but things are coming to a head very, very soon. We just can’t escape the consequences of the browning of America and the economic rise of women.

And, of course, the “birth dearth” that is probably the real reason why everything is so fucked up in the United States at the moment — white people on a macro basis just can’t handle the transition to minority status and it’s eating away at them on a psychological basis.

I talk to my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and I’m aghast at how we can no longer even agree on what is “real” anymore. Red and Blue are receding away from each other on a macro basis at an alarming rate to the point that I just don’t see how we don’t become all Red (a white Christian ethnostate) or we don’t have a National Divorce that ends up burning the entire globe to the ground to a certain extent.

I just don’t know what to tell you. Buckle up. Things are going to get bumpy one way or another.

Ugh, Everything Is So Dumb!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Nazis are such fucking crybabies. They are equal to some of the more extreme elements of the Trans movement when it comes to being willing to destroy everything in the name of “vibes.” Take, for instance, their reaction to the prospective new CEO of Twitter.

MAGA has some sort of vague sense of ideological purity that if they don’t get they freak the fuck out. They also love to gaslight when it comes to the issue of “free speech.” They want the absolute right to spread hate to the point that if you even bring up the idea of some of guardrails, they freak the fuck out. They see “free speech” as nothing more than an means to and end when it comes to establishing a fascist MAGA Nazi state.

The tragedy of the commons and all that.

The whole thing is completely fucking bonkers. It proves a point I’ve been making for some time — MAGA Nazis are politically ascendant and it could be that if we have a “National Divorce,” it will be Blues, not Reds who decide to serve papers.

I will note in passing that I’m worried about the next Republican president establishing an autocratic state using hard power, at the same time my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — are freaking out about “woke” corporations ruining their lives.

Everything is so dumb.

A National Divorce Would Be Just The Beginning

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.

The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.

Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.

But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.

The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.

Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.

‘None Dare Call It Treason,’ MTG Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve given up trying to grok what the hell is going on within far Right circles where they are so partisan that they actively embrason treason if it fits their narrative. I suppose it all has something to do with how Trump is, at least in “vibe” terms a traitor so they feel they have to defend him via proxy whenever they can.

All of this is even more bonkers in the context of the legacy of Ronald Reagan. The fact that MAGA fascists would be “hard” on “wokeness” and amazingly soft of on treason and espionage is simply flabbergasting. Not only is it all very difficult to process, but if our partisan divide has gotten that bad, then it’s just a short jaunt to a National Divorce.

Now, remember, some — maybe most — of MTG’s bullshit is performative. She’s so craven that she’ll say whatever necessary to “own the libs” and stoke the base. I do think that she has the means, motive and opportunity to be America’s true autocrat by way of being ding-dong Trump’s second term Veep. She’s an idiot, but she’s definitely not so dumb that she couldn’t become what is marketed as America’s “Iron Lady” when the time comes.

There are about a dozen would-be autocrat waiting in the wings to do the final consolidation of power once Trump is out of the way. I still wonder if the tradition to autocracy will be peaceful or not. It really could go either way. The point is –we’re entering a very unstable moment in America’s political history. MAGA Republicans, on a systemic basis are chomping at the bit to establish permanent white Christian rule and the only question is if Blues bend a knee when they strike or if they bounce out of the Union in protest.

But, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.

Any National Divorce Would Be Extremely…Messy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though a lot of Americans have some sort of National Divorce on the brain. They come up with all these different maps that imagine how, exactly, such a “divorce” would actually happen. Here’s the latest one that I’ve found on Twitter.

The problem with this map is it is way too sanguine about a lot of things. There are two main elements to a National Divorce that aren’t really talked about that much. One is, by definition, millions of people would be displaced because their politics didn’t fit their state’s general political inclinations.

The second is Red States are pretty much contiguous, while Blue States aren’t. So, unless some sort of United States of Canada can come into existence to connect all the Blue States, there’s a good chance there will be a massive fucking war to build some sort of land bridge between Oregon and Minnesota and another between Michigan and the Northeast states.

I still have serious doubts that any sort of National Divorce will happen. In fact, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump, unto himself, pretty much is going to determine which way things go.

Trump Could, Unto Himself, Spark A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a guy I know through Twitter who assures me that all my hysterical fears about the possibility of either autocracy or civil war coming to America starting in late 2024, early 2025 are just that — hysterical fears. He makes the very cogent point that demographically, MAGA is on the losing side of history and it’s inevitable that the whole fascist American Nazi project will eventually fade into oblivion.

I constantly tell him I hope he’s right — and I really do.

And, yet.

The key thing I worry about is MAGA — KNOWS — that he’s right and, as such, they want to game the system so they can at least attempt to establish permanent white minority rule where the usual rules of a liberal western democracy don’t apply anymore. MAGA wants America to be an illiberal democracy so it just doesn’t matter the demographic situation — white Christians will always, always, be in control of the United States.

My concern is — would that transition into autocratic white Christian minority rule be peaceful? If Ron “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer” DeSantis is the Republican nominee, then, yes. It will be peaceful. He will become president, become America’s Putin and that will be that. Gradually, wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country, leaving we Poors to our own devices.

But there is the issue of Trump.

Trump is such a strange historical figure that he could, unto himself, cause the United States to descend into civil war / revolution because he bungles the otherwise peaceful transition into autocracy. It could happen in a number of different ways.

It could happen when Trump wins the 2024 election and his policies are so radical and fascist that Blue States leave the Union because they refuse to bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazism. Meanwhile, if he LOSES, he could start a civil war when he demands Red States leave the Union so he can be the “rightful” president of a new neo-Confederate States of America.

A lot of any potential secession crisis starting in late 2024, early 2025 would be how ripe states like Texas, South Carolina, Arizona and Florida are to leave the Union should Trump begin to rant about how Reds need their own nation if he loses.

Meanwhile, I’m at a loss to tell you if a state like California would really leave the Union if it became clear that Trump’s second term would be so radical that the state would feel it had no choice but to secede. It could be that, lulz, it’s just not collective temperament of Blues to do such a thing when they can just mass-migrate out of the country.

One thing I would suggest you keep an eye on — calls for a Constitutional Convention on the part of MAGA. This idea is floating around the Far Right, where Trump usually gets his “best” ideas and, as such, it’s entirely possible that he may spook Blue states by demanding one be called in his second term. And, remember, DeSantis is also really interested in the movement to call up a Constitutional Convention.

What To Make Of ‘TEXIT’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I write a lot about how I think if there is any sort of National Divorce that it will be Blues, not Reds, who serve the papers. And, yet, here we are with shit like this:

So, here we are. There is actual move towards “TEXIT,” or Texas voting to secede from the Union. I continue to believe that this is just not going to happen unless something really unexpected happens.

I’ve beginning to believe that even if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that Trump will become president without a shot being fired. In fact, the only way I’m beginning to think that the only way this might happen is the following scenario: Trump is the nominee in 2024, but he loses and when he starts to demand a “National Divorce” people take him seriously about it.

Otherwise, it’s a lulz.

Either Trump wins outright and we just slide into some form of autocracy — especially should something happen to him and his veep become POTUS — or he’s the nominee and we become an autocracy that way.

So, in a sense, a lot of things would have to go wrong in a specific way for there to be a National Divorce. The question is — how possible that that specific series of events might happen?

It seems as though we’re still too far out to know one way or another. We don’t know Trump will be the Republican nominee. We don’t know if he will win the 2024 election and we don’t know if Trump loses and starts to rant about civil war if anyone will take him up on it.

A lot of this an issue of the economy. If the United States defaults on debts because we won’t raise the debt ceiling, then that sets up a situation where the economy is doing so badly that an already unstable United States would be primed and ready for strategic political violence.

Another issue is Biden’s age. There are a lot — A LOT — of nightmare scenarios dealing with Biden being out of the picture suddenly at just the wrong moment during the 2024 presidential cycle. I wince even thinking about any such thing happening, but history shows that sometimes once you’re in a crisis a lot of bad things can happen in quick succession.

So, should we take TEXIT seriously? Maybe. But maybe not YET. It could go either way with either there being TEXIT or there being, alternately, being CAXIT.

Things are very much up in the air at the moment.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, it is highly unlikely that the United States will have a civil war. And, what’s more, if we have one, it’s probably going to be because Trump is the Republican nominee and that, unto itself, forces Blue States out of the Union.

But, let’s speculate on what all the MAGA Republican cocksuckers are obsessed with — the idea that MAGA is going to demand a National Divorce and, as such, cause a Second American Civil War.

It’s kind of difficult for me to even imagine how this might happen, given how politically ascendant MAGA is at the moment, but, for the sake of argument, let’s try it.

The most obvious straight line scenario is Biden wins re-election and that, unto itself, causes states to leave the Union — probably starting with either Texas or South Carolina. I still struggle to imagine any scenario whereby we have the long-hoped for “MAGA Revolution” whereby good olde boys, en masse, pick up their AR-15s and start shooting, “every liberal they see.”

I still believe, at least at the moment, that any Second American Civil War we have will happen at the state level, just like the first one.

But there are some high-level complications to such a clear-cut scenario. One is, Biden — and Trump — are both so old that that potentially throws some curveballs into any future history predictions. I could see if something happens to Biden between Election Day and Certification Day that might be the type of complication that leads to a civil war.

Another possibility is DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump leaves the party, splitting the Republican vote. That is another way that I could see Red — rather than Blue — states leaving the Union and starting a civil war. That would give us a replay of 1860’s election where Slave Power was so divided that they they lost against Lincoln.

But, again, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war because I just don’t see MAGA allowing any Democrat winning the presidential election in 2024. It seems as though the most likely endgame is DeSantis is the nominee, Trump backs him and DeSantis is America’s Putin.

And, yet, MAGA Republicans have a huge boner for a National Divorce where they serve the papers, so I will talk about it some more.

The key is Trump.

Trump is not a historical Great Man, but MAGA Republicans are so frothy these days with their rhetoric that it seems as though Red States are primed and ready to leave the Union given the proper excuse.

I still don’t believe there will be a Second American Civil War. You may want to leave the country, yes, but it won’t be because of violence.