American politics at the moment is a shit show and has been for some time. It’s completely fucking bonkers. And, what’s worse, it’s all happening in broad daylight. We see the lights of an oncoming train, we’re on the tracks and we’re just standing there, waiting to get hit.
I keep saying we’re beyond the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war or military junta and every day I’m reminded of how right I am. MAGA Republicans now openly embrace some pretty basic elements of fascism and they’re screaming at the top of their lungs that they only believe in democracy if they win.
The idea that if Trump is indicted then he becomes a martyr for the cause, forcing Republicans to cling to him even tighter is seriously fucked up. I suppose we can at least be thankful that Trump is such a lazy idiot that there’s every reason to believe his innate laziness and incompetence may at least delay our final decent into fascism.
But there is the counter argument that Trump, unto himself, could force the United States into civil war. It could be that his historical purpose is not to be a transitional figure on our march to fascist autocracy, but the person who just by being a malignant digus causes the country to collapse.
As I keep saying, I just don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. The reason why the country seems to have civil war on the brain is the far fucking Right is made up of a bunch of fucking crybabies who take any perceived slight as the some sort of tyrannical oppression of what they hold dear.
Tectonic forces are at work here, things that are just difficult for one person to process. We’re all living through a massive historical event and as it’s happening to us, it has no value or narrative on a personal basis. As such, it won’t be until it’s all over with and we look back at what just happened that we’ll be able to understand how the fuck it all ended up happening.
Let me again stress — I do not pretend to be able to predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. I’m always wrong. Always. But I’m growing more and more alarmed that Something Bad is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, spring 2025.
The country is tearing itself apart in a pretty conspicuous manner there are two main issues that I just can’t game out at the moment. One is, like I mentioned, is it possible that Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war? And the other is, am I right to have such a low opinion of Blues ability to serve National Divorce papers on Reds if Trump — or whomever — demands Blues bend a knee to MAGA fascism?
I think that we’ll be a lot closer to knowing what is going to happen next after the midterms. That is when we’re going to lurch towards our fate one way or another, depending on the outcome of the vote. If Republicans win Congress, then things are going to get lit pretty quick. Meanwhile, of Blues somehow managed to keep Congress, then, well, the possibility of MAGA political violence will increase significantly.
All of this is part of how fucking bonkers America is right now. Something Big is on the horizon, but the question is: what?
It’s becoming MAGA Republican orthodoxy to dress up their autocratic desires — and to own the libs — by being very adamant that the United States isn’t a democracy, but rather a “Constitutional Republic.” That Republicans quibble over nomenclature like this is a tell — they have very unpopular policies (such as there are) and rather than change them to win elections in a liberal democracy, they would rather destroy America’s democratic birthright.
There’s a lot to unpack here.
One of the signs to me, at least, that the United States is probably going to slip into autocracy is my Traditionalist relatives, who should know better, parrot this MAGA talking point. What they’re really saying is not so much that they believe that the United States is a Constitutional Republic, but rather they don’t believe in traditional liberal democracy anymore.
They hate it when people vote because they know that the more people vote, the less they win and the more pressure they feel to maybe, I don’t know, change with the times? What they want is to be able to play the more obscure, undemocratic elements of the Constitutional to ensure that they, at a minimum, establish an “illiberal democracy” like there exists in Hungary, in the United States.
And my Traditionalist relatives are all-in on this canard. They talk about how democracy is “mob rule” and how Alexander de Tocqueville warned about the dangers of democracy. (Which, I think is a disingenuous or even downright wrong interpretation of what he wrote about the United States.) And, what’s more they even say shit like the Founding Fathers didn’t want democracy and you’re not doubting their wisdom, are you?
This is all bullshit. The reason is, while, yes, we are a Constitutional Republic also, at least until recently, a very stable Western democracy. There were democratic norms and, in general, the general movement of American pollical life was towards more democracy and a broader definition of who could vote. So being a Constitutional Republic is not mutually exclusive with being a democracy.
All of this, of course, is a cover for how desperate white angry Christian (men) are to establish a white, autocratic Christian ethno state in the United States for various reasons. They are afraid of the browning of America, the rise of economically liberated women and a growing secularity in the country. They point to things like the “woke cancel culture mob” because that is lot easier to sell on a political basis than, “I want to take your democratic birth right.”
The rise of Republicans believing that the United States is a Constitutional Republic is a clear sign that we’ve lost Traditionalists and, as such, we are careening towards an autocratic state the moment — any — Republican becomes POTUS. That’s all she wrote. If someone like DeSantis becomes president, then we’re going to have A Very American Autocracy and we’re going to wake up in 20 years and wonder why he’s still POTUS.
Millions of wealthy liberals will leave the country to the point that the “liberal brain drain” will replace “scary brown people at the border” as a boogie man for the American MAGA Right. On paper, all things considered, that seems to be a foregone conclusion.
And yet, there is a wildcard — Trump.
Trump is such a fucking malignant chaos agent that he could, personally, start a civil war in a variety of ways between now and, say, spring 2025. I’m not saying he will, but there is definitely a greater-than-zero-sum chance that it will happen.
Anyway, I just don’t think we’re prepared for how bumpy the next few years will be. MAGA Republicans have all the political momentum — despite their snowflake bellyaching — and either they get what they want, which is an illiberal democracy, or we have a civil war of some sort.
Figure out what you believe in the real world and what you’re willing to suffer for. Or just leave the country, if you can.
I like to use the searches that bring people to this obscure Website as writing prompts. The most recent one is, “CIVIL WAR COMING IN US.” So, let’s help this person out. I’m assuming it was a question. I think. But let’s talk about that — is a civil war coming to the US?
Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
Well, the logic for one happening is there now. And all the conditions for one exist. And, yet, barring Trump going transactional, I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. It may happen in late 2024, early 2025 when Blue states leave the Union because MAGA brazenly steals the 2024 election.
But, like I said, Trump has the means, motive and opportunity to single handedly start a civil war — he gets indicted and he lashes out, going transactional and demanding that his followers go Gotterdammerung on the United States. It would not take too many incidents of MAGA lonewolves with AR-15s murdering 30 or 40 people for political reasons for what came next to be marketed as “America’s Second Civil War.”
And, I have to admit that the United States is very much on edge. I won’t totally dismiss the idea of some sort of spontaneous “popular” revolt on the part of MAGA simply because we will have reached a point of such absolute division in the United States that there would seem to be an air of inevitability about a civil war.
And, as I said in my most recent Vibe Shift podcast, there are two things to think about when talking about when a civil war might start — “when” and “civil war.” What do you mean by “when.” I’m assuming what the fucking fascist cocksuckers of MAGA who are chomping at the bit to murder people like me mean when they say “when” is “when can I murder liberals and the rules of war, not law, apply?” In other words, under the rules of a war, they could just run around and murder anyone whose politics they didn’t like — like me — and they wouldn’t be arrested because the Federal government would be overwhelmed by a civil war.
Also, what is a “civil war?” What do they mean by that term? I often think that a “civil war” or “revolution” is something mentioned by the far Right for no other reason than those two concepts are the worst possible thing they can think of. The Far Right has reached the point, however, when they are chomping at the bit to start running around with the AR-15, murdering people like me in cold political blood.
So. What does all of this mean?
It means while a civil war COULD simply start as something of a popular uprising, I have my doubts that it’s going to happen in 2022. It might happen in 2024 – 2025 when Blues leave the Union to protest the theft of the 2024 election. But in 2022 on the part of MAGA to protest the indictment of Trump? Maybe. But not likely.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
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