The issue of the moment is how the vibes are off in America, no matter how well the economy is actually doing. People are just unhappy and grumpy. It makes you wonder what the fuck is going on in America, why this is the case.
It definitely seems as though we’re going to vote malignant ding-dong Donald Trump back into office because we have just given up because of bad vibes. And, yet, as I have said before, I think maybe we should not fear this particular situation, but embrace it.
I say this because — we’re fucked.
Because of long term macro demographic changes in the United States, the Republican Party is now a pure, uncut fascist party. And, really, it’s just a matter of time that because of the ebb and flow of any semi-functioning democracy that one of the two major parties will get power again.
As such, of all the people to attempt to transition us into a fascist autocracy, Trump is probably the “best” of the available options. And, given how bad he will be in his tyranny, maybe….the good guys will win sooner rather than later?
I’m not advocating anything, but if I had to organize an General Strike against a American tyrant, I should would rather do it against Red King Trump I than anyone else who might be available.
I have long believed that Trump is NOT a great man of history like Caesar. But I do think he is a historical and constitutional torpedo headed towards the American ship of state. The key issue is — Trump is, just like Biden, old as hell. And Trump isn’t in the greatest of health because of his weight.
So, there is every reason to believe that Trump could destroy everything…then it will be his MAGA Nazi successor who will do the mop up work. Or, even less conclusively, it could be that the process of turning America into a white Christian ethnostate is half done.
It could be that Trump gets us as far as starting the process of crushing American democracy through a rouge Constitutional Convention…then shuffles off this mortal coil. That would cause even more chaos and uncertainty because…then what?
I think the key thing is that the Republican Party is not fascist and it’s just a question of if we collectively shrug when they attempt to turn us into a fascist state, or if we do something about it. (Not advocating anything.)
The next 18 months will be….interesting, not matter what.
The key thing to remember about all of this “dictator” talk by Trump is he just wants that idea rolling around people’s minds should he get re-elected. It will, in his ding-dong brain — give him more wiggle room when it comes to what he can actually do.
While I hate to compare someone as lazy and dumb as Trump to an actual Great Man of history, it is easy to compare Trump as Julius Caesar. Just like Caesar, Trump could be a transitional figure for our hobbled Republic. It could be that for no other reason than Trump is old, fat and lazy as fuck that it won’t be him who turns us into a Russian-style autocracy, but, rather his next Republican successor.
But all of this won’t happen in a political or historical vacuum. The United States is not a one-to-one with the late Roman Republic, as much it might be easy to assume that it is. The US is more likely to collapse into revolution and civil war than it is to peacefully transition into autocracy — especially under the ham-handed “guidance” of someone like Trump.
And, remember, after Caesar’s death, there was a huge civil war. So, I think rather than us assuming Trump is an American Caesar, we need to think seriously about the global implications of the world’s hyperpower buckling into autocracy, revolution and civil war.
If 2020 proved anything, it’s that I just can’t predict the future. As such, I keep searching my mind to think up what I could possibly be missing about late 2024, early 2025 that would somehow give us an offramp from all my “hysterical doom shit.”
At the moment, I got squat.
It seems we’re going to lurch into a very dark and turbulent fate starting around November 2024 and things could be pretty rough for a number of years after that.
Or not. I just don’t know.
The most obvious thing that might throw everything up in the air is some sort of “health incident” that one or both of the old codgers who are running for president might experience. As for Trump, I don’t wish physical ill on him for no other reason than if ANYTHING happened to that fucker, the country might collapse into severe political violence not seen since the death of Martian Luther King Jr — only this time it would be red necks burning things to the ground because they believe the “deep state” did in their false prophet.
I suppose maybe a war — DPRK, I’m looking at you — might throw things up in the air. Then Biden would be a War President and he MIGHT be able to unite the country just long enough to defeat Trump.
If — God forbid — Something Happened and Biden was no longer the nominee, that would REALLY scramble things a great deal and things could go in directions no one — least of all me — could predict.
As an aside, I will note that it definitely seems as though Republicans may lose the House this year, which would que up Trump being impeached sooner rather than later if he went “full tyrant” on us. Throw in an actual effective General Strike and it’s at least possible THAT would be how we got rid of that malignant ding-dong.
But all of that is VERY speculative.
I have no idea what is going to happen. I just want to live in a peaceful, prosperous America that has a functioning democracy. That should not be too much to ask.
Let me again say, I can’t predict the future. There is every reason to believe that in the end, the US will simply shrug and we either have four more years of Biden or we turn into a MAGA America First nightmare and it’s all a lulz.
But because I like to make my abstract fears concrete, let’s really think about the nuts and bolts of a possible Second American Civil War starting in late 2024, early 2025.
The state we should keep an eye on in this situation is Texas. The state is already an autocratic MAGA bastion, and so it makes a lot of sense that if Red States feel they need to bounce that Texas would be the first state to do it. Tradition would suggest that South Carolina might be the first out the door, but there are so many African Americans in the state….whoa buddy…that, in practical terms might not be as sure a thing.
But Texas has just the right demographic composition that if Trump lost in 2024, or if he won then went full tyrant in 2025 and was deposed, they seem to be the state that would call up a snap secessionist convention on the fly. Now, there are some obvious complications to this idea. On the ground, Texas — as I understand — is s l o w l y — shifting to Purple.
As such, even if Texas MAGA Nazis were able to sucker punch the populace by calling up a Secessionist Convention overnight, there would be some pretty dire consequences going forward. You could easily imagine a scenario where the state capital of Austin went full Paris Commune on the rest of the state and there was some sort of Siege of Austin.
Ok, let’s also think about how things might play out with other Red States. I think pretty much all the low population Red States of the Mountain area would flee the Union the moment Texas made it clear they were serious. Utah is one of those states that could go either way because it’s a hotbed of NeverTrump support…but one of its Senators is Mike Lee, so lulz?
Now we get to even MORE complication. States like Oregon and Virginia would likely implode because of how diverse they are. If we started to have a serious secessionist crisis, there would be A LOT of self-selection across the country as people bounced to states that better fit their own personal political views. And then, of course, there is the issue of places like Austin and other Blue dots in Red States that would either be razed by Red forces or see a huge amount of depopulation as their political difference became untenable.
And don’t even get me started about my fears of Trump going Pol Pot on us an emptying the “Godless cities” so American Killing Fields can be filled with the bodies of Blues.
And, remember, none of this will happen in a geopolitical vacuum. World War 3 would start the moment it became clear that the US was too pre-occupied blowing itself up to do anything about various regional conflicts around the globe. What’s more, if any sort of Second American Civil War dragged out long enough, then the outside world would begin to get involved, too.
I could totally see the DPRK dropping a few H-bombs on the US to kick us while we’re down.
Anyway, if things get so bad that we have states leaving the Union….yikes. May God have mercy on our souls.
We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.
They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.
The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.
That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?
The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.
The issue about any sort of civil war or revolution because of ding-dong Trump thrashing around history is how much it would suck, suck, suck. It would be not sexy or fun. It would be a horrible tragedy.
And the more I think about it, the more I realize that we could very well be on the cusp of nothing short of the most powerful nation in the world bombing itself into the stone age because of…vibes. Once you start things like revolution and civil war, it is very, very difficult to stop it.
So, it’s very possible that we could have a solid decade of death and destruction starting in late 2024. Now that really sounds hysterical, but there is an air of inevitability when it comes to Trump coming to power again that is very eerie. It’s like we’ve just decided that we all have to “go through some things” to get it all out of our system.
And remember none of this catastrophic tragedy would happen in a geopolitical vacuum. If the United States is imploding, that will mean that the greater world is exploding into WW3. At least a billion people could die specifically and directly because of ding-dong Trump because he will have caused the US to implode into civil war / revolution.
I know how hysterical that all sounds, but we have to start taking shit like that seriously. We have to sit up and take notice about where things are heading. And part of that is taking seriously how bad this new, war-torn America would be for the everyday person.
The chief thing is how any form of communication would probably be a premium. Command and control would be the first thing each side of any war in the United States would try to knock out and, as such, there’s a good chance that once the ball started rolling most of us would have no idea what the fuck was going on outside of our immediate neighborhood.
And if the absolute worst happens, we’ll all be so busy struggling to eat and avoid various explosions that we just won’t have time to worry about what our pronouns are any other form of identity politics — it’s hard to be “woke” when everything is very, very existential on a daily basis.
But only time will tell. It could be I’m overthinking all of this and we’ll either drift peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy or Trump will lose and he’ll just slink away into the political darkness.
It is becoming apparent to me that the usual suspects of the American intelligentsia are willfully hiding from the American public how fucking bad it will get if ding-dong Trump wins re-election.
The more I learn about Trump’s plans for his second term, the more alarmed I grow. The reason is — he wants to rule as a Red King over the Blue States. And somehow thinks that simply invoking the Insurrection Act will make all his dictatorial dreams come true.
And that is just not how these things work.
So, the smarty pants of The Atlantic are saying everything but the obvious — America is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution if Trump wins a second term for the simple fact that America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.
Trump will have no MAGA SA at his disposal. The USA has a long history as a strong, stable democracy — it’s not the Weimar Republic. The US is far bigger and far more decentralized than the Weimar Republic of 1933. And, in general, the tool that Trump thinks he can use to knock heads — the U.S. Military — is a foundation of the American democratic tradition.
So, if it is Trump, rather than, say, Ron DeSantis, who gets the opportunity to become America’s Republican autocrat — shit is going to hit the fucking fan pretty quick. And the fine folks at The Atlantic apparently want to dance around this fact, rather than shake the American population by the shoulders and tell them DO YOU REALIZE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF TRUMP WINS IN 20204????
I guess the nattering nabobs of negativism simply don’t want to scare people because at the moment it’s all rather abstract. I mean, we don’t KNOW what will happen in a Trump second term, we can only speculate. It definitely *seems* as though Trump will try to subjugate Blue States as a Red King, they will fight back and the country has something akin to a Blue “Glorious Revolution,” which, in turn causes a Red Secession Crisis and…we’re going to the show.
Blues may turn into Blue Meanies before 2025 is over with.
The greatest country the world has ever seen will implode because of…vibes? Because Red Alpha Males are strangely so insecure in their masculinity that they hate gay people? What the what?
But, here we are. It could be that in about a year the final bolts will fly off the United States and some rather dramatic events may happen. Or….Trump loses and he somehow has a brain transplant and slinks into the political night without demanding a National Divorce so he stays out of prison?
I just don’t know. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I’m growing more and more alarmed!
Here are my personal opinions as to why each one of the potential endgames might happen. Civil War (Right) * Trump simply will not accept defeat. * As such, faced with the possibility of going to prison, Trump might demand a National Divorce to keep his sorry ass out of it. * They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so the moment Trump begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce, it’s possible that states — probably starting with Texas — will take him up on it. * Because of corrosive issues like abortion and guns, it’s possible that the whole system will collapse given some added pressure. Punt * Something unexpected could happen like happened in 2020. * It’s always possible that even if Trump demands a National Divorce after losing, Red States may choke and not initiate a Secession Crisis. * There’s no evidence that we’re actually on the cusp of a civil war. Revolution (Left) * Trump is so stupid and so lazy that rather than do basic autocratic moves, he could go full tyrant — in Blue States at least — in such a way that pisses people off so much that they want to overthrow Trump. * It’s possible that Trump could be so brazen and chaotic in his tyranny in Blue States that people who would otherwise be pretty chill with an *autocrat* will freak the fuck out if Trump is actual *dictator*. * Any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump would be extremely risky and might only serve to make him more powerful in the end. *It’s possible that because so many smug liberals have left the country after election day that there won’t be any leadership left to direct any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump
Trump Loses — gives up It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame) If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
The 1872 Election Endgame Look it up. It’s bad
Here’s how malignant ding-dong Trump plans to rule starting in late January 2025 if he wins re-election.
On a basic level, his animal brain knows he can rely upon Red States to give him free reign to be a more traditional autocrat. As such, he realizes he has two things standing his way — Blue States and the “Deep State” found lurking within the Federal government.
So, what he believes he can do is purge the Federal government of anyone who opposes him, knowing that he can rely upon the MAGA hacks of SCOTUS to back him up. He will also use his pardon power in a gratuitous manner to allow his fascist toadies to do any number of otherwise illegal things.
Then what he does is “crush” opposition in Blue States using the U.S. Military using the Insurrection Act. So, in Blue parts of the country Trump plans to rule not as an autocrat, but as a military dictator. Meanwhile, he will browbeat the national press so no one will know how bad things have gotten in Blue States. Remember — in an autocracy, communication can be a weapon. I could even see domestic social media being regulated to an unprecended extent as 2025 progresses.
Ok. There are some weaknesses to this plot. The key one being the United States is pretty porous to the point that if the U.S. Military was killing thousands of people in Blue States, it would inevitably be discovered in Red and Purple States. ALSO, I’m not 100% sure that the U.S. Military is totally prepared to be Trump’s MAGA SA-like goons.
But I have to give Trump credit, he’s a lot closer to being the type of autocrat he admires. But there are at least two issues he simply can not avoid — the whole setup will be EXTREMELY UNSTABLE and he’s fucking old.
I feel better now, though. I have figured out what we’re up against should Trump win in 2024.
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