Tag: Iran

Civil War & WW3, Oh My!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.

With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.

Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.

As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.

Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.

Dare We Hope For A Revolution In Iran?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My earliest political memory was the American hostage crisis in Iran during the late 1970s. That was the first political event that my little, growing mind could comprehend. Flash forward a few decades and I’m old and jaded and the prospect of autocracy in my own fucking country looms large in my mind.

I can’t predict the future.

And, yet, whatever is currently going on in Iran seems different enough to give someone as cynical as me a glimmer of…hope? It definitely SEEMS like we’re in pre-revolutionary Iran, that there might be a sudden shift and Iran will thrown off the yoke of the mullahs and rejoin the modern world.

But — and this is a huge but — it could go either way. It could be that there’s not a revolution, but a civil war. Or just a severe crackdown that leaves thousands dead. It’s very unusual for history to go in a straight line when there is a crisis like what’s going on in Iran at the moment.

So, I dunno. It’s very frustrating because there’s not really anything the United States can do to help the situation. In fact, if we do anything, we’re likely to make matters worse for the Iranians who want to breathe the fresh air of liberty, freedom and democracy.

I will note that if there was a successful democratic revolution in Iran, that would throw the status quo of the Middle East into a wood chipper. Suddenly, it might be possible for Iran and Israel to not be at each other’s throats anymore. While it definitely wouldn’t mean Middle East peace, it would definitely change things — the conventional wisdom of nearly 50 years of Middle East geopolitics would be thrown up in the air.

But I’m not prepared to have too much hope about a successful revolution in Iran. My thoughts are with the young women at the forefront of this nascent revolutionary movement, however. Those girls have guts.

My Hot Take On What’s Going On In Iran

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When I was in South Korea, I knew this one Iranian expat who collected friends like other people collect stamps. I went to his birthday party and there must have been 35 people at the restaurant. And, in general, Iranians as a people love America, even if their theocratic government definitely does not.

So I watched the recent protests in Iran with keen interest. I’m just the right age that the American hostage situation in Tehran made a big impression on me when I was growing up. That was, in fact, probably the seminal political event of my early childhood.

Anyway, what are we to make of what’s going on in Iran right now? I honestly don’t know. The protests started because a young woman was beaten to death after she wore her headscarf the wrong way or some such. The real issue is, are all these protest just the usual “letting off steam” that happens every once in a while in a dictatorial society or is it something bigger?

If democracy came to Iran, that would radically change the geopolitical framework that we’ve long come to assume with the Middle East. The price off gas across the globe might come down. Iran and Israel might break bred. And, in general, we could sigh a huge sigh of relief.

There is the other end of the spectrum, of course, which is if the Mullahs begin to feel threatened on an existential basis that they lash out against their perceived external enemies in an effort to juice up support domestically. I don’t know what to tell you. It could go either way.

Only time will tell.

Pondering The Possibility Of WWII With Trump Attacking Iran & Putin Attacking Ukraine

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I have for a long time said that Trump will wag the dog ASAP in an effort to prevent a “Blue Wave” from happening in the fall. But I always thought it was going to be the DPRK that would be the source of the war that would have people in the States humming Lee Greenwood’s greatest hits on their way to the polls in November.

But from all appearances, if there is going to be a World War III type event any time soon, it’s going to be something like this: while the States is buy attacking Iran, Russian will attack Ukraine. The States will be so busy having a patriotic circle jerk as we invade Iran that we won’t notice the enormous land grab in Ukraine on the part of the Russians.

Now, there are some enormous problems with Trump doing such a thing. It’s very possible that Iran and the DPRK might form some sort of secret Axis against us. They might say, “If we’re going down, we’re going down together.” It would be difficult for the United States to fight a war with both Iran and the DPRK. We’d win, of course, but with significant loss of life. Or, put another way, if Trump really wanted to go after Iran, Iran would have every reason to align itself directly with the DPRK in an effort to wave the States off any decision to attack.

How, exactly, that would go down is anyone’s guess. At this point, I honestly have no idea what is going to happen. But Trump is so batshit insane that it seems as though anything is, in fact, possible.