The question of 2024 is, of course, how bad will 2025 be? As of now, late 2023, it seems within reason that either Trump loses and we have a civil war, or Trump wins and we have some sort of revolution then civil war in 2025.
And, yet, as 2020 proved, no one can predict that future.
So, it’s very possible that through some unexpected twist of fate, Trump will no only lose, but fade into political oblivion in some non-violent way. That’s all we can hope for at the moment.
But who knows. I know I don’t. It could really go either way. One reason is, Trump has made it clear that he will only accept his victory as legitimate. Meanwhile, he is a vessel, and avatar for a lot of bent up rage among white Christian (men).
So, I just don’t know. It really could go either way. And if we punt our problems down the road again, I will be very grateful.
It is becoming apparent to me that the usual suspects of the American intelligentsia are willfully hiding from the American public how fucking bad it will get if ding-dong Trump wins re-election.
The more I learn about Trump’s plans for his second term, the more alarmed I grow. The reason is — he wants to rule as a Red King over the Blue States. And somehow thinks that simply invoking the Insurrection Act will make all his dictatorial dreams come true.
And that is just not how these things work.
So, the smarty pants of The Atlantic are saying everything but the obvious — America is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution if Trump wins a second term for the simple fact that America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.
Trump will have no MAGA SA at his disposal. The USA has a long history as a strong, stable democracy — it’s not the Weimar Republic. The US is far bigger and far more decentralized than the Weimar Republic of 1933. And, in general, the tool that Trump thinks he can use to knock heads — the U.S. Military — is a foundation of the American democratic tradition.
So, if it is Trump, rather than, say, Ron DeSantis, who gets the opportunity to become America’s Republican autocrat — shit is going to hit the fucking fan pretty quick. And the fine folks at The Atlantic apparently want to dance around this fact, rather than shake the American population by the shoulders and tell them DO YOU REALIZE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF TRUMP WINS IN 20204????
I guess the nattering nabobs of negativism simply don’t want to scare people because at the moment it’s all rather abstract. I mean, we don’t KNOW what will happen in a Trump second term, we can only speculate. It definitely *seems* as though Trump will try to subjugate Blue States as a Red King, they will fight back and the country has something akin to a Blue “Glorious Revolution,” which, in turn causes a Red Secession Crisis and…we’re going to the show.
Blues may turn into Blue Meanies before 2025 is over with.
The greatest country the world has ever seen will implode because of…vibes? Because Red Alpha Males are strangely so insecure in their masculinity that they hate gay people? What the what?
But, here we are. It could be that in about a year the final bolts will fly off the United States and some rather dramatic events may happen. Or….Trump loses and he somehow has a brain transplant and slinks into the political night without demanding a National Divorce so he stays out of prison?
I just don’t know. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I’m growing more and more alarmed!
Jesus Christ. I continue to read a flood of articles that detail malignant ding-dong Trump’s plans for the U.S. Military when he is “dictator for a day.” The issue is — at its heart, the U.S. Military is a democratic institution. It just doesn’t make any sense that Tyrant Trump can order the U.S. Military to effectively be his SA.
The Nazi SA was a bunch of fucking street brawling thugs who would kick your teeth in if you stood your ground against Nazi aggression. And while, yes, there are plenty of paramilitary groups floating around the US at the moment — the Patriot Front being the one that unnerves me the most — the US of 2025 will not be Germany 1933.
It would take at LEAST 18 months for Tyrant Trump to organize and build out an American SA of no less than 1 million hateful thugs who would beat the shit out of people like me in the streets to “persuade” them to go alone with the America First agenda.
So. Trump and his toadies can pencil in “thugs TBA” in their 2025 agenda all they like — there would be a huge window of opportunity for a General Strike or a Woman’s Strike to pressure the U.S. Military to slow walk –at a minimum –the implementation of Tyrant Trump’s more tyrannical orders.
I mean, the U.S. Military wouldn’t even use tanks for Trump’s fucking 4th of July parade in D.C. because it would “tear up the pavement” and you mean to tell me they would turn into street brawlers at the behest of a ding-dong like Trump? Really?
It definitely seems as though someone hasn’t really though through the implications of all these nefarious, tyrannical plans they have gamed out for 2025. There will come a point soon after Trump goes full tyrant in 2025 when there will be a severe and direct reaction on the part of Blues against his tyrannical behavior.
I’m not advocating anything, just pointing out the obvious.
I continue to struggle with how, exactly, Trump could go full tyrant in 2025 by just invoking the Insurrection Act while corrupting the levers of power. That’s it? That’s all he’s going to do? And it’s not like all of that is going to happen in a vacuum.
The U.S. Military is not the Nazi SA. It’s a democratic institution to its core. It’s not going to be cool with being seen as MAGA thugs, hell bent on “making America great again” over a bunch of corpses. If anything, if Trump pushes that particular pressure point too much, the military will either implode from internal division on the subject or turn around and topple Trump for being such a dick.
What Trump will need is some sort of national paramilitary group, an American SA. But it would take 18 months to organize and call up the 500,000 bloodthirsty thugs to make up any sort of American SA. That would be plenty of time for a General Strike or Women’s Strike to persuade the U.S. Military to stand down or even help Blues topped Trump. (But even then, all that might do is cause a National Divorce and a civil war, so, lulz?)
Yes, Trump would weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure, but that STILL would not be enough goons for what Trump wants to do. Blues make up about half the population and once it became clear that Trump wasn’t “joking” about becoming a tyrant towards them….anything might happen.
This is not to say that Trump can’t get what he wants, just that maybe there’s more going on than I realize. If there isn’t, early 2025 could be very, very unstable. The key thing about Trump is he’s always been a one-man unpreceded stress test on the American political system.
Maybe Blues need to turn into “Blue Meanies” if Trump is re-elected.
If he uses the U.S. Military on the Blue parts of the U.S. to rule as a military dictator there, while being a more traditional autocrat with his Red State supporters….yikes. Trump could cause the situation in the United States to grow so unstable that many, many people die for no damn reason. The US could be wracked with revolution, counter-revolution, civil war all happening in the context of WW3.
I still believe that MAGA and Trump will soon be as loaded in the global mind as the Nazis and Hitler. Trump could be responsible for at least 1 billion dead if you factor in WW3 happening as a number of nuclear-tipped regional wars turn hot because the USA is too preoccupied with blowing itself up to do being the world’s “indispensable nation.”
But, thankfully, I can’t predict the future. No one can. But it does seem, in general, that if Trump wins re-election that we’re going to the show. That will be it. Either the US turns into a MAGA hellscape, or we somehow manage to destroy MAGA and found a Third Republic.
What are we to make of this? There are two things to take into consideration. One, Trump lies all the time, so it seems as though it may be more than just “one day’ that he wants to be a tyrant.
Meanwhile, in the past at least, Trump was too dumb and lazy to actually do some pretty basic autocratic things. That may have changed, however, for various reasons. It could be that Trump could very well do all the autocratic things that he promises to do — “on day one.”
This brings up the issue of my own personal exposure. While I think I’m *fairly* safe — at least at first — my concern if we really are transitioned into a military dictatorship that things could get…hot…for me where I live. I could become one of millions of American who flee my home to somewhere that better fits my own personal politics.
But, it gets worse.
Virginia where I live is actually two states one Blue, one Red, fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of “National Divorce” or even a “Glorious Revolution” Virginia is going to implode into intra-state civil war. The whole thing would be a massive clusterfuck with no ready endgame.
And, yet, here we are — it definitely seems as the moment that a Trump second term, with all its hellscape elements, is now inevitable.
The thing about Trump is he is easy to both overestimate and underestimate. You just never quite know what the fucking tyrant is going to do. It’s the same way with the free press. It could be that he is able to rub his two brain cells together in such a way that the average person won’t even notice that the United States no longer has a free press.
Behind the scenes, he will use a combination of plutocrat shenanigans and pressure to subtly shift the tenor of American press coverage of his tyrannical administration. We’ll just wake up one day and late night talk shows will have been purged and strangely the new hosts wont talk about politics in their monologues anymore and if they do, they simply sound like something you might see on Fox News. SNL will be cancelled simply because Lorne Michaels has retired and that will be that.
That’s if we’re lucky.
If we’re NOT lucky, Tyrant Trump will be far more direct and ham-handed in his attack on the free press. If Tyrant Trump goes about things THAT way, then…oh boy. We’re going to the show. Because to attack the free press in a direct way would bump up against American self-perception of “living in a free country” AND it would provide ready media-friendly martyrs.
Remember, all of this would be happening the context of Trump strangling lady liberty in an already rather brazen manner. So…lulz? I don’t know what to tell you, folks. Keep the faith. Things could get pretty bumpy starting in late 2024, early 2025.
All of this is extremely speculative — Trump hasn’t even become president again — but it is clear that he wants to rule the United States has nothing short of a military dictator given the opportunity. Even though he will be old as hell by the end of his second term, he is so stupid and so lazy he could still destroy the country by simply living long enough to destroy the Constitution.
If we’re lucky, he will at least demand a Constitutional Convention to enshrine America First agenda in a legal way. If we’re not lucky, he will simply do whatever the fuck he wants and use his pardon power on himself and others to get away with it.
This is the point where MAGA people call me insane and tell me to “stop drinking varnish.” I will note that such MAGA people seem to want it both ways. They support a man who tells us all in no uncertain terms what tyrannical things he wants to do…then they get upset when people like me take him both literally and seriously.
Don’t quite know what to do about that.
But the issue remains — a second Trump Administration could be the thing that single handedly not only destroys America, but causes WW3 to happen. I’m not kidding. That is a real possibility. Trump could be responsible for the death of at least 1 billion people if any number of nuclear-tipped regional conflicts went hot.
I stand by my belief that one day Trump and MAGA will be just as loaded and controversial as Hitler and the Nazis.
I know the Blue Meanies are the bad guys in the movie who are defeated by The Beatles. I just find the idea of Blues turning into Blue Meanies for a little while in 2025 because of Tyrant Trump amusing.
Maybe Blues need to become Blue Meanies to save America. (Wink)
Potential Scenarios for late 2024, early 2025:
Trump Loses — gives up It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame) If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
The 1872 Election Endgame Look it up. It’s bad.
I’m not advocating anything! I just like to run scenarios. It’s a way to make my abstract fears concrete and, as such manageable. As such, let’s imagine Trump goes “full Tyrant” as soon as he’s sworn in on January 20th. We already know he wants to invoke the Insurrection Act on day one.
Now, remember, Tyrant Trump is going to be a military dictator in regards to Blue States and just a regular olde autocrat when it comes to Red States. As such, it seems this will be a very, very volatile situation because Red States will be treated a lot differently than Blue or rebellious parts of Purple States.
And the key thing to remember is we would have no idea if any attempt to depose Tyrant Trump would…actually work. It could be that any attempt to bring him down would only make him stronger. That’s what happen in Turkey a few years ago when there was a coup attempt against their autocrat. He’s still there, more powerful than ever.
We may all be Antifa in 2025, if Tyrant Trump goes full tyrant.
But here are a few ways I could imagine we might force Tyrant Trump out of office
General Strike / Women’s Strike Things would have to be REALLY BAD for anything like this to work. It’s just not in American political DNA for average Americans to strike en masse nationally for a specific purpose. It’s much more of a European thing. But Trump goes full tyrant (at least in Blue and parts of Purple States) I could see Radical Moderates popping up to the point that a General or Women’s Strike might actually be practical. Even if it was just the major Blue States, if there was a General or Women’s strike, that would really cripple the national economy to the point that you MIGHT get the U.S. Military to either stand down or even go so far as to topple Trump altogether.
Overreach On His Part There is a chance that Trump goes nuts against Blue States. He goes sucked into throwing more and more troops at Blue States to the point that there is a general uprising against him there because he will be a military dictator there. This could cause the Blue parts of Purple and Red States to rebel as well. There would be growing pressure on the U.S. Military to just stand down or to even to topple Tyrant Trump altogether. Maybe. It’s at least possible. I can hear Tom Nichols telling me I’m full of shit as I write this.
Use the 14th Amendment to Force Him Out (With Help From U.S. Military) There is a lingering unresolved issue surrounding Trump’s eligibility to be president because of the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. Now, remember, during Reconstruction the Constitution’s demand that states of a “republican form of government” gave Radical Republicans what they needed to prevent defeated slave states from returning to the Union. So, I could see out of sheer desperation — and some legal cover — that a very, very distressed U.S. Military might say, “Well, the 14th Amendment says Trump isn’t even POTUS.” That would at least potentially get red of Trump and his Veep. I would be cool with that, even if it meant we were stuck with President Johnson. (Again, I’m not advocating anything, just saying this as a general sentiment.)
A Specific Demand For a Constitutional Convention Any attempt to overthrow Tyrant Trump would have to be done in the context of specific demands for structural political reform. For me, that would mean deposing Trump and MAYBE a military junta that would rule specifically long enough for a Constitutional Convention to be held. So, we might have President Mattis for a few months while all of that was going on.
A Social Media App Designed To Organize National Direct Action One thing that might help bring down Tyrant Trump would be a social media app designed specifically with organizing direct action like strikes built into it. That’s just a daydream.
All of this is just a daydream at this point. I absolutely fucking hate violence of any sort. I would rather just leave the country that have to worry about violence. But, all of this is political mental masturbation to make me feel better, to not feel so helpless in the face of macro historical and political trends I can’t control.
And remember — it could be that any attempt to depose Trump that was successful would just cause a National Divorce and, as such, even more tragedy. So, hopefully, we won’t have to worry about it. Mueller, She Wrote keeps telling me someone or something is going to save us, right?
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