It is growing more and more apparent to me that should, God forbid, Trump get re-elected that there is only one Red Line for most Traditionalists — the personal. Otherwise, they will be so happy that brown kids are again being torn from their mothers and put in cages that it will all be a lulz.
But when things get personal, then, yeah, Traditionalists might stop being Good Germans.
The only reason why I even bring such a thing up is Trump is so dumb and lazy that he is the only person who might thrash around in such a tyrannical manner as soon as he has power again that the people who should be the core of his support — center-Right Traditionalists — might actually become “Radical Moderates” just long enough for him to be successfully deposed.
Even this is very iffy.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe we really are going to go straight into a dystopian MAGA Nazi future where people like me are snatched off the street an no one — no even Traditionalists who are related to me — will care or notice.
And, yet, at least now, in early 2024, I’m not prepared to assume that that is the case. I’d like to think that if Trump really does go full tyrant on us that because of the Red Line of the personal that Traditionalists might, just might, look the other way if Trump has to be deposed. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)
It definitely will be interesting to see how, exactly, things play out going forward. Just from my conversations with my far more conservative Traditionalists relatives — whom I love dearly — we are in a lot — A LOT — of trouble if Trump is re-elected.
They just don’t believe that Trump is going to do all the shit that he has made very clear that he is going to do if he’s re-elected. I keep talking about Agenda 47 and Project 2025 and they look at me like they have no idea what the hell I’m talking about.
All I can say is, yet again, that late 2024, early 2025 is going to be VERY INTERESTING.
I can’t predict the future — no one can — but I have a personal compulsion to make my abstract fears concrete. As such, I just don’t think malignant ding-dong Trump can go full tyrant on us in a really haphazard way and there not be consequences.
If Mad King Trump really tries to rule the Blue parts of the US a tyrant as it seems clear that he does, then…oh boy. It just makes absolutely no sense to me that Mad King Trump could do all the tyrannical things he plans to do without any SA-like stormtroopers.
That is the key element of Hitler’s consolidation of power.
All these people who are aghast that I think there might be some reaction to Trump going full tyrant are making a basic mistake — they are assuming that if Trump starts to corrupt the administration of law and of justice that Blues are just going to roll over and let it happen.
As I always say at this point — I’m not advocating anything. I just believe in freedom loving Americans to refuse to live as slaves under MAGA tyranny. That doesn’t mean that a lot — A LOT — of smug Twitter liberals won’t flee the country.
They will.
But simply invoking the Insurrection Act isn’t some sort of MAGA fascist magic pixie dust. Rather than having “optimism bias” by proposing all of this, I think I’m being rather radical, clear minded and realistic.
I’m proposing that when pushed into a corner by MAGA fascists that Americans, en mass might rise up against the MAGA Trump regime in a stunning, historic way.
Just broaching this type of radical proposal is rather ironic coming from me, someone who hates any form of violence at all. But even the Constitution enshrines the right of the populace to revolt if need be. It’s weird that that particular provision of our founding document hasn’t gotten more attention of late, given all the bullshit that’s going on at the moment.
I have no idea of the specific of such a dire situation, but you, gentle reader, have to remember that not only is Trump NOT Hitler, but he also doesn’t have the SA to do his bidding. AND, what’s more, the US is far bigger, far more decentralized than Germany in 1933 and it would take time for ding-dong to build out the infrastructure necessary to knock heads the way Hitler did in early 1933.
That would be a window of opportunity for Blue forces to fight back against Mad King Trump. If we are VERY LUCKY, we might be able to co-ordinate some sort of General Strike that might cause such chaos in the country that the U.S. Military might step in and depose Trump in some way.
I know, I know, that’s pretty crazy sounding at the moment, but stranger things and all that.
The key thing for me is Traditionalists. These are people who are MAGA-friendly and they just want to see brown children torn from their families and put back in cages. When things get personal for them — say, when Trump uses a weaponized ICE to snatch their (white) relatives (like me) off the street then all bets are off.
The moment Mad King Trump loses the Traditionalists, then the lock is ticking. If we’re absolutely lucky, then Trump is successfully impeached because of the pressure of a General Strike. If we’re NOT lucky, then there is some sort of “Glorious Revolution” that doesn’t involve much violence, but does result in Trump and his veep being forceably deposed from power.
Now, obviously, this is the point where you say, “But won’t Traditionalists just become modern day Good Germans?”
That is very possible. But, remember, as I mentioned, Trump won’t have any SA shock troops as he enters power again. He’s dealing with 335 million Americans, most of whom have a basic assumption that the rule of law will be fairly and equitably administered.
Without an SA to remind Traditionalists to keep their heads down, there is a chance that their principles might kick in and they might, if nothing else, kind of look the other way as the more radical elements of the center-Left take charge.
I don’t want any of this to happen. But this is kind of personal for me because I’m a loudmouth drunk crank who simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about what a fucking cocksucker Trump is.
I will never, ever fucking shut up.
I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees a slave.
There is only one way that Blues might actually start a civil war (really a revolution, given their collective temperament,) and that is if it was clear Trump had stolen the 2024 election.
I have grown to believe this is the least likely of the various possible scenarios because Trump is so dumb and lazy that he’s more likely to either win outright or lose outright and THEN start a civil war. Either by losing and demanding a National Divorce or by WINNING, then being such a tyrant that he is deposed somehow then Red States leave the Union.
But, yeah, I suppose if he steals the 2024 election that Blues might, rather than “leave the Union” simply deny that he’s POTUS in the first place and things start to go crazy when there’s, like, some sort of General Strike but because the U.S. Military doesn’t know what to do…wow…just wow.
All of my existing thoughts about such a scenario stand, though. What California does would be key — they would be the arsenal of American Democracy in any civil war / revolution because of their population and economy.
I have to say, in any fair fight between Blue and Red, the forces of American Democracy (Blues) definitely SEEM like they could kick the asses of tyrannical fascists MAGA Reds. That doesn’t mean, of course, that any such civil war/ revolution wouldn’t draaaaaaaaaaaaaag out for years, leaving America looking like Afghanistan by the time everything go sorted out.
I’ve written about all of this — and changed my mind some of the years — a great deal over the last four or five years. And, in general, I think first of all, it won’t happen and second of all if it does it will suck. There will be no narrative and the whole thing will be value free.
I can’t predict the future — no one can. But there very much is an air of inevitability at this point about Something Bad happening in the United States in late 2024, early 2025.
ALEXANDRIA, VA – JANUARY 9: View of empty shelves at a local Giant supermarket as the omicron covid variant causes widespread supply chain delays resulting in empty shelves in many food markets on January 9, 2022 in Alexandria, Virginia. Credit: mpi34/MwdiaPunch /IPX
What that “bad thing” will be, I don’t know.
But whatever it is, it will be so bad that some pretty basic, existential things could be thrown up in the air or put into question. I find myself going to the grocery store these days and asking myself, “What am I going to do when there’s no food here during a revolution / civil war?”
It would make a lot of sense that the similar bare shelves that we saw during the pandemic might return the moment it’s clear the US is on the cusp of buckling one way or another — for whatever reason.
That, of course, sounds very hysterical. And it probably is. Like I said, I can’t predict the future.
I don’t know what to tell you — America is seriously fucked up at the moment. And it’s only going to get worse. There is a chance, of course, that some Black Swan event will allow us to take an off ramp — like what happened in 2020 — and all our structural problems will be punted down the road another four years.
The issue is that the Republican Party is so radical now — and so resistant to changing its policies — that, by definition, the next Republican president we have will be a fascist autocrat. The only question, at this point, is how his or her specific personality will influence policy.
It will be very curious to see how, exactly, that works out. There are severe structural problems in the American political system so someone like Trump can bubble up to the surface.
After Trump won in 2016, I saw a — I think — New York Magazine article that was one big liberal “cope” in which they proposed America was “too big.” This was one way of them slyly suggesting what we would now call a “National Divorce.”
To this date, the idea of a National Divorce or anything suggesting the USA should split up REALLY MAKES ME ANGRY. I will admit that in the past, I have toyed, in the abstract, with the idea of Blue States leaving the Union. But when I realized that is just not what Blues would do — if anything like that is going to happen, it’s going to be more of a revolution than a National Divorce — I stopped even thinking such a dumb idea might have merit.
Which brings up the idea of why Red States might be willing to leave the Union.
Well, I live in the South and there is a pretty potent race memory among white Southerners when it comes to the Confederate States of America. To the point that at least one well-educated conservative I know pretty much at this point supports a National Divorce — if it comes to that — because of “vibes.”
And, really, that is what is eating away at the foundation of the United States at the moment — vibes, especially from the Right. The Right gets soooo worked up about how bad COVID lockdown protocols were, then they rest their entire indictment of the Biden Administration on…you guessed it…vibes.
As I’ve written before, there are two ways we have an actual civil war. One is Trump loses and states, starting with Texas, leave the Union to “protect” him from going to jail. Second way is Trump wins, he goes “full tyrant” and things get so absolutely bad that a number of Red States leave the Union because they love that idiotic, malignant ding-dong so much.
So. If all goes according to plan, I’m going to start to query my novel in some capacity in late 2024, and MAYBE as late as early 2025. As such, I’m working on the assumption that the country will be stable enough for that to be a viable option.
So, I may write a lot about The End Times for the USA, but in a practical sense, I’m totally ignoring that possibility. I am doing this because, as I keep saying, all my “hysterical doom shit” is simply me trying to make my abstract fears concrete.
I just don’t know if The Fourth Turning is really going to happen. In fact, I generally don’t think it will. I do think that Trump is probably — at this point at least — win the 2024 election and 2025 could be mass chaos. And, yet, if enough smug Twitter liberals leave the country on their second passport…meh. Maybe that will mean people will be more interesting in read a novel that is part of a six novel project that is pretty much just one long screed against extremism (using subtext.)
Or not. Who knows. All I know is I’m pressing forward with this novel, even though there is definitely a part of me that is….concerned…about the next 18 months and beyond.
If 2020 proved anything, it’s that I just can’t predict the future. As such, I keep searching my mind to think up what I could possibly be missing about late 2024, early 2025 that would somehow give us an offramp from all my “hysterical doom shit.”
At the moment, I got squat.
It seems we’re going to lurch into a very dark and turbulent fate starting around November 2024 and things could be pretty rough for a number of years after that.
Or not. I just don’t know.
The most obvious thing that might throw everything up in the air is some sort of “health incident” that one or both of the old codgers who are running for president might experience. As for Trump, I don’t wish physical ill on him for no other reason than if ANYTHING happened to that fucker, the country might collapse into severe political violence not seen since the death of Martian Luther King Jr — only this time it would be red necks burning things to the ground because they believe the “deep state” did in their false prophet.
I suppose maybe a war — DPRK, I’m looking at you — might throw things up in the air. Then Biden would be a War President and he MIGHT be able to unite the country just long enough to defeat Trump.
If — God forbid — Something Happened and Biden was no longer the nominee, that would REALLY scramble things a great deal and things could go in directions no one — least of all me — could predict.
As an aside, I will note that it definitely seems as though Republicans may lose the House this year, which would que up Trump being impeached sooner rather than later if he went “full tyrant” on us. Throw in an actual effective General Strike and it’s at least possible THAT would be how we got rid of that malignant ding-dong.
But all of that is VERY speculative.
I have no idea what is going to happen. I just want to live in a peaceful, prosperous America that has a functioning democracy. That should not be too much to ask.
I fear it’s just too late. There’s simply nothing that can be done — barring something I can’t predict — to prevent political catastrophe starting in late 2024, early 2025.
I mean, when headlines like this:
…do nothing to stop Trump from being 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again….we got a problem.
As such, I think all I can ask of my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — at this point is that they will give me material support should the country collapse and we find ourselves on opposite ends of the sudden very real political divide in a country torn asunder.
As I often say, Virginia is actually two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. The divide is pretty much rural versus metropolitan. The thing about a National Divorce, should it happen starting in late 2024, or early 2025, is what happens to states like Virginia?
If Red States really do start to leave the Union, there will be a massive rush from rural MAGA counties for Virginia to follow suit. Meanwhile, the urban areas of the Commonwealth will remain loyal to the Union. I think we would see coups and counter coups in Richmond if the things really got bad.
On a practical basis, if Virginia imploded, I would have to figure out what I would do on a personal basis. I think I would head to Richmond where I have some relatives. But that would probably be just a makeshift solution. Even Richmond would not be safe to stay in very long. I would, I fear, have to leave Virginia altogether for a more stable state north of the Mason – Dixon line.
I would like to think an infrastructure will have been built out by the point that I have to leave RVA, but, who knows. I know I can’t predict the future, so it’s very possible that all of this is just me and my usual hysterical doom shit. But who knows.
All I do know is the United States is a lot less politically stable than we would like to to think. The MAGA Right grows more and more radical by the day and should the time come, I have no doubt that states where MAGA Republicans control the governments will begin the process of leaving the Union.
I suppose what will happen is roadblocks will begin to pop up between Red and Blue states as the process of collapse begins in force. I suppose that Red States — who at this point I think will be the ones leaving the Union — will issue their own passports. And the new Trumplandia government will have to attempt to seek recognition from other countries, probably with our enemies like China and Russia being the first to rush to do so.
But, again, let me stress, all I’m trying to do is make my abstract fears concrete. It could be that some sort of Black Swan event will happen and we’ll simply punt our severe structural political problems down the road another four years. But I do believe, in general, that our next Republican president — whomever that might be — will ben autocrat.
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