Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, not so great. There are a few scenarios I can come up with where there would be, before the end of this year 2021 some sort of rolling, unorganized political violence…but an actual Second American Civil War? Nah.

But I could see the odds of a Second American Civil War increasing significantly in the 2023-2025 timeframe. So, in a sense, one could see this as the quiet before the storm.

Or, to put it even another way — the macro trends that are leading to a possible Second American Civil War are still there. It’s just they will all come to a head no later than January, 2025. Some reasons why we might have a civil war.

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, yet, the United States is far more politically unstable than one might currently think and so at any particular moment right now the possibility of a civil war breaking out is, in fact, greater than zero. But it won’t be until after 2023 — at least — before the possibility of a civil war reaches 50%.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of a Second America Civil War has provoked a growing fascination because negative polarization within MAGA New Right ranks has grow so absolute, so extreme that an organized attempt to physically hurt liberals seems “inevitable” to them.

I’ve seen a lot New Right cocksuckers essentially blame liberals for “forcing” them to radicalize. To date, all the movement towards some sort of needless tragedy on the level of a Second American Civil War is abstract. MAGA New Right cocksuckers know, in general terms that dem dar damn liberals are “forcing” them to to ahead to an “inevitable” civil war.

But how close, exactly, is the United States to a civil war?

For the time being, we’re about four years away from a civil war, if it’s going to happen. There is always the chance that some unexpected event that I can’t game out will happen before January 2025, but I am growing more confident that we’ll survive until that point. Some reasons why we might have a civil war:

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

What’s more, a civil war would be one of three options within a spectrum of political outcomes, with autocracy and military junta also being possibilities. Some of why people are so interested in a modern American civil war comes from the sense that a lot Americans have that the country is collapsing around them and they are struggling to understand if they should prepare for a civil war.

So, in that respect, things are still pretty abstract.

And, remember, for the type of civil war that the MAGA New Right expects to happen, to happen, something would have to knock the U.S. Military out of commission on a systemic level. Because such an event would be pretty astonishing, I think it’s safe to say that if we reach the brink of civil war that the U.S. Military will step in, establish a temporary military junta and that’s how we’ll solve the existential problems of the day.

Anyway, I have no idea about anything. Don’t listen to me.

I did get my passport yesterday, though.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I monitor who looks at this Website rather obsessively. And would you believe the tag that gets some of the most traffic for this site is “Glorious American Revolution of 2021.” Obviously, people are searching for “revolution 2021?” and coming across that tag.

This, of course, is very, very dumb.

The crux of why it’s dumb for a MAGA New Right person to want a violent revolution is they’re well on their way to getting everything they want through politics. All they have to do is be patient and the United States will become an autocracy and, lulz, that’s it.

And, yet, here we are, with the MAGA New Right cocksuckers glorifying political violence even though its widespread use would likely destroy their ability to achieve their political goals.

It seems as though we’ve reached a moment in our nation’s history, similar to the late 1850s, when the momentum is not exactly on our side. All it would take is a little added pressure on our failing political system and, lulz, we could have a severe crisis.

My fear, of course, is we’ll have a civil war with states seceding from the Union, WMD will be used and before you know it the United States has so bombed itself into oblivion that a literal American Taliban will form. Though, in our case, it would based on Christian, not Islamic, theology.

And, if you think about it, all this interest in the violent overthrow of the US government would be in line with the notion that we might face an American Taliban type movement in a post-civil war era. But there’s one thing we have to accept and that is the United States is far less politically stable than maybe we are willing to admit to ourselves.

It’s very possible that because of the bloodlust on the part of the MAGA New Right that some pretty surreal things could happen to us all before it’s over with. Violence is not cool, folks!

by Ender

The thing about the MAGA New Right is they’re telling us exactly what their vision for America is — they see organized political violence as a viable option in their never-ending goal of “owning the libs.” Mo Brooks’ statement today that is, in essence, one of support for a would-be bomber is a prime example of this. People like Brooks are now all-in on the notion that only through violence can they “own the libs” once and for all.

When you have the entire Republican ecosystem and infrastructure focused on the specific goal of establishing a white Christian ethno state in the United States, there’s not much we can do other than hunker down for a civil war, autocracy or a military junta. They dress it up in some weird idea about being against “dictatorial socialism” but they’re just scared of the browning of America and want to make sure POC “know their place” like they used to.

In an abstract way, the solution to our problems is, of course, to destroy the Republican Party altogether. But that could only be done if it was one of several aims of a civil war. And I don’t particularly want a civil war, but the MAGA New Right sure does like talking about how they want to murder people like me for political reasons.

All of this is part of broader macro problems the United States faces. In general, we’re totally, completely, fucked. We’re doomed and the sooner we sit up and take notice on how totally fucked we are, the better.

The MAGA New Right grows more and more radical — and blaming liberals for “doing it to them” — and there’s going to come a point, probably around January 2025, when we finally reach a breaking point. People are going to get hurt at the hands of the MAGA New Right. Probably A LOT of people.

The MAGA New Right will stop at nothing to destroy the America we’ve known for the last 260 years. And, honestly, I don’t see any way to stop them at this point.

Leave the country if you can.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A lot of my “doom shit” comes from simply listening to what the MAGA New Right is saying and taking it both seriously and literally. If you do that, there’s no other conclusion but the United States is in a chronic, lingering severe political crisis.

If you listen to what people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly say on Twitter, their movement is nothing short of an American Taliban. They want to destroy everything America stands for, enslave women and minorities, and generally turn A Handmaid’s Tale into a documentary.

I’m well aware that a lot of what they say is “own the libs” frothy bullshit, but the general gist of what they believe is no less radical than anything the Taliban would have you believe. The MAGA New Right is so absolute in its abstract fears of white Christians being “replaced” by woke soyboys that they are more than willing to burn America to the ground, rather than risk being “canceled” for being racist pieces of shit.

The MAGA New Right glorifies political violence. They have made it clear they will stop at nothing to turn the United States into a minority run autocratic white Christian ethno state. Why else do they love the autocrats in Russia, Turkey and Hungary so much? That’s the baseline of what they want to turn the United States into.

If you believe, as I do, that there’s a real risk of the United States imploding into civil war sometime between now and January 2025, then it’s even more likely that the MAGA New Right will become an American, Christian equivalent of the Taliban. The ideological underpinnings for this to happen already exist. Just mix in the use of stolen WMD on major cities, a complete collapse of our government and society and what else is going to happen but the rise of Taliban-style extremists in the United States?

But, of course, I’m making a number of huge assumptions. It’s very possible that we’ll just slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy without firing a shot. The media will be purged and the ICE infrastructure will be weaponized, but if you’re a Good German, your life really won’t change that much. In a sense, that would be the best case scenario for everyone involved if the other end of the spectrum is a catastrophic civil war where we bomb ourselves into the stone age because of an abstract fear over being “canceled.”