Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

More Of My Usual ‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ January 6th & The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something that we have all taken for granted, living in a liberal democracy, has been if you do something bad on the national stage there are consequences. You resign in disgrace. You don’t run again. You maybe even go to jail.

Pray.

As Congress begins to look into the January 6th Insurrection, however, there is a dark, looming outcome that we have not thought about: nothing.

What if we learn the truth, it’s bad and it’s all a lulz? The indications that this will be the case, at least on a political level, are already there. Republicans have done a 1984-style job on what happened on January 6th to the point that the base is now willfully accepting their lies. So it seems very possible that even if, after much gnashing of teeth on the part of Republicans, we learn that there was direct co-ordination between the Trump White House, Congressional Republicans and the Insurrectionists, absolutely nothing will happen.

People like me will get upset. It will be a huge scandal for 60% of the population, but for that crucial 40% of the country that seems to control everything….it’s a lulz. They just won’t care. The power of negative polarization will be so extreme that the absolute best we can hope for is maybe Democrats continue to cling to power in Congress.

But even that might be a stretch because of the power of gerrymandering and voter suppression. This seems so likely that we have to prepare ourselves for it. Instead of worrying about how Republicans will, on a political basis, get away with such astonishing political crime, we maybe need to start thinking about how we’re going to handle the obvious implications of all of this: we’re going to have a severe, historic political crisis no later than January 2025.

Something so big that everyone will be forced to pick a side, any side, even if they don’t want to. And, what’s more, because of the nature of such a crisis, there will be moments when you may find yourself tested as to the choice you picked. Your life may even be threatened and you’re going to have to decide if your life — and the lives of the people you love –are worth the choice you made, the side you picked.

I’m well aware that this sounds like my usual “hysterical doom shit.” And, honestly, if you’re a normal person with a career and limited abstract thought abilities, I can totally understand why you might think that

Only time will tell which one of us is right.

Second American Civil War Scenario #4: A Creative 2023 Coup Attempt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I spend a lot of my time pointing to January 2025 as the most likely moment in time that the United States might buckle into a “hot” civil war, there is another January that might be just as bad: that of January 2023.

As I keep saying, America’s political system is so rotten, so fucked up that literally the only thing holding everything together is we’re kind of in an Era of Meh. Biden believes in the norms and principles of a liberal democracy such as ours and no unexpected thunderbolt has put undo pressure on the system.

But — and this is a big but — we have the looming 2022 midterms to worry about.

There are a number of different ways this could play out, but the one that is at the forefront of my mind is the totally bonkers — but totally on-brand — ploy on Trump’s part to get himself third to the presidency by becoming Speaker of the House. He would like this idea because he would be in charge of any impeachment proceedings that took place AND all he would have to do is just show up to be named Speaker.

Now, I know, I KNOW this sounds like my usual “hysterical doom shit,” and given that Trump has proven himself such a fucking idiot that he can’t do even the most basic of autocratic plays, this may be just something that people like me worry about while “normal” people raise their grandkids and think of the next concert they’re going to.

So, it’s very possible I’ll be wrong AGAIN about Trump.

But it is very easy to imagine Trump becoming Speaker, impeaching both Biden and Harris and then inciting violence on the part of the MAGA New Right to such an extent that Senate Democrats feel forced to convict them “for the sake of the nation.”

Then Trump comes back early and we’re right back where we started from in January 2021, with Trump demanding to stay in office forever because of “lost time.”

And, yet, it’s possible that what got us into a civil war in the late 2022 – early 2023 timeframe would not be anything as creative as Trump being named Speaker. It could be that when it become clear that Republicans on a local level will nullify any election they don’t like, then, lulz, all hell will break loose. And we have a civil war not in early 2025, but early 2023.

And, yet, I’m being “hysterical.” Even though everything I see points to our current political limbo being untenable. We’re all going to face an existential choice between now and January 2025.

Do you have a passport?

‘will the USA end up in civil war 2021’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No.

Long Answer: Maybe. But it’s a lot more complicated than you might think. The MAGA New Right at this point just as an abstract belief that given that civil war is the worst thing they can think of, that that’s what’s going to happen sooner rather than later.

But beyond that, what exactly they expect to have happen is rather fuzzy.

All the typical MAGA New Right person knows is, in general terms, liberals are “driving them” to radicalization and violence. In other words, if only liberals would “leave them alone” they would have no reason to have such dark thoughts about a civil war that would bomb us all back to the stone age.

For there to be a civil war in 2021 as opposed to, say, January 2025, there would have be a pretty big political event that would push us into crisis. And from what I can tell of the web searches that bring people to this site, often times people seem to think more in terms of a populist MAGA New Right revolution than a state-level civil war.

This is a notion that I really struggle with. What the fuck are they hearing that would lead them to believe MAGA New Right people are going to simply, en masse rise up and over throw the government. This is very bonkers given the entire Republican organization is anti-democratic and will likely force the issue around January 2025 when a MAGA controlled Congress simply nullifies any Biden re-election.

There’s something going on that I don’t understand because I’m not involved in the MAGA New Right bullshit echo chamber. What I THINK is happening is, Far Right wing “thought leaders” have begun to babble about civil war / revolution happening NOW and that has people thinking about that to the point that they search for information about such things and end up at this site. The ironic thing being, of course, that we both have some pretty dark things on our minds, but coming from the exact opposite political directions.

What I fear, they hope for, in other words.

I fear a civil war, they want one so they have the opportunity to have some sort of liberal “final solution.”

And make no mistake, there are a number of things bouncing around the Far Right wing bullshit echo chamber that have led such people to believe a civil war could happen RIGHT NOW. One of them is the Cyber Ninjas recount bullshit in Arizona. On Twitter, at least, they never come out and say it — that they want to violently over throw the government if the Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” the state…but that sure is the implication of all their bonkers Waiting For Godot.

So, back to the question — could we have an actual civil war in the United States in 2021? A domestic 9/11-level type event would have to happen in such a way that states began to leave the Union for anything close to that to start happening this year.

Even then, Ii struggle to figure out what, specifically, could cause states to want to leave the Union after such a severe domestic terrorist attack. Just seems like if there’s going to be a civil war in the United States that isn’t in January 2025, it will be somehow connected to the 2022 mid-term certification instead.

So, in general, I understand — some degree — why people keep searching for a civil war happening in the United States in 2021, I struggle to think of anything, in concrete terms, that would cause one to happen.

Maybe in 2023 or 2025, though.

‘Is Civil War Coming To The US?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short Answer: I don’t know right now. Ask again in mid-2024.

Long answer: Keep an eye on what Donald Trump does. There are currently about a dozen would-be autocrats in the United States who could easily transition the country into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy given the opportunity.

Oh captain, my captain.

And, yet, for any of them to get that opportunity, they have to get around the one person who could single-handedly, through personal incompetence push us into the other alternative — civil war: Donald Trump.

I say this because Trump could have very easily transitioned the United States into an autocracy in the 2017-2021 timeframe because that’s what he was elected to do by the people who voted for him: turn the United States into an autocracy. Too bad for them, they voted for the “You’re fired” guy and they got an idiot moron who was too lazy to do even the most barest of work necessary to establish one.

And when he did do any work is was at the very last moment when he tried to organize an insurrection to browbeat his veep into not doing a job he couldn’t even not do if he wanted to — certify the vote.

So, it’s very reasonable to believe that if it’s Trump that history gives the responsibility in 2024-2025 to transition the United States into an autocracy, he’s going to fuck it up so bad that we have a civil war. The people who love him so much are in a personality death cult. They love the “idea” of him so much that they are willfully ignorant to how what they want — a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy — is a lot more likely to happen under the guise of a President DeSantis, Cotton or Pompeo than ding-bat idiot Trump.

And, yet, that’s who they love, so they may get a civil war that destroys us all rather than a capable Great Man who would peacefully strangle America’s 240 years of democracy over the course of two or three years.

But a lot could happen between now and the general 2024-2025 timeframe when it appears we’re most likely to have some sort of severe political crisis. I will note that the earlier any type of “civil war” is triggered, the more likely anti-MAGA forces will win.

Since I get accused of “doom shit” by people Twitter liberals actually listen to, the minority report would be that, no, we’re not going to have a civil war. Somehow, magically, Trump and his whole ecosystem will somehow magically be brought down by a combination of hubris and a Justice Department that, to date, has not shown any indication that they’re going to do anything — ever — about Trump. What’s more because of how dire the rot within our political system is, somehow, even more magically, even if we do pin the planning of the January 6th Insurrection on Trump and friends we’re going to have the political will do hold them accountable for it. Instead of, say, just a big old lulz.

So, are we going to have a modern Civil War in the United States? The conditions are there for one, yes, but we’re not there yet. It’s going to be a few years before we reach a tipping point.

Probably.

Second American Civil War Scenario #3: Trump Runs Again


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m going to call it now: if Trump runs again, we’re probably going to have a civil war.

I say this because Trump is notorious for screwing up situations where he should get what he wants without any problems. Just look at the 2020 election. Everything and I mean EVERYTHING was cued up for him to steal that election — even with a pandemic — and he screwed it up.

Any other would-be autocrat would be enjoying their second term right now and Trump is such a lazy, idiotic ding-dong that he couldn’t pull it off. IDIOT. As such, it’s easy to imagine a situation where between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025, Trump single-handedly sparks a civil war because he’s a fucking moron.

He will have the entire edifice of the Republican Party at his disposal, so when even though everything is aligned for us to peacefully transition into an autocracy Trump, unto himself, will fuck things up. He has repeatedly done this in the past and he will do it in the future.

If someone like DeSantis is the 2024 Republican nominee our transition to autocracy will be swift and peaceful. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2025 to learn the media has been purged and, lulz, sucks to be you, lib. Then the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and Hollywood will flee, en masse to, say, Perth.

So, if Trump announces, have a passport handy. Or be willing to defend — or suffer for — what you believe in. Things are going to get lit in the real world. No more of this “Twitter Resistance” bullshit.

Second American Civil War Scenario #2: Waiting For The Durham Report


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Though the American political system is very, very fragile at the moment, there would need to be some sort of outside pressure for anything close to a “civil war” to happen. One possible origin of such a pressure is some combination of The Durham Report and / or the Arizona Audit “proving” Trump was right / really won the 2020 election.

I troll the Arizona Audit echo chamber a lot these days. The prospect of the Arizona Audit has fused with the prospect of The Durham Report coming out so your typical MAGA New Right person assumed Durham has the Arizona Audit on his desk, ready to release it with his report.

The whole thing makes me ashamed to be an American.

But that’s what the MAGA New Right base is fixated on even at this late date. It’s both pathetic and comical how they have all their hopes of Trump being “re-instated” on some mixture of The Report and the Arizona Audit. They won’t come out and say it, of course, but what they want is a violent overthrow the American government if either — or both — of these reports give them the results they want, need and expect.

So, it is possible that THIS is how we’ll endup having a civil war. Sooner or later Cyber Ninjas “proves” Trump “won’t the election and there’s a sudden push to nullify the 2020 election. Then, lulz, there a secessionist conventions and we have a civil war.

Or something like this.

I’m king of growing tired of ranting about all of this. We’re kind of treading water at the moment. We’re drifting towards a January 2025 existential choice of autocracy or civil war — but for the time being it seems we’re ok. Things aren’t getting better, but they’re really not getting worse on a tactical level. On a macro level — we’re fucked.

Anyway.

The SCOTUS Texas Abortion Decision Puts America One Step Closer To Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. In the end, this could all mean nothing because instead of civil war, we just slip peacefully into autocracy. And, yet, with their decision tonight to effectively end Roe V. Wade, SCOTUS has pushed us closer to a Second American Civil War.

I have no idea what it would look like, or if it would be Blue States or Red States that started it, but I do know that the American political system is so fragile right now that this little push on it could ultimately have huge consequences. This is another bolt popping off or liberal democracy.

There will come a point when there are no bolts left to lose and we have to make a historical, existential choice about what we’re going to do about the divisions America faces — are we going to become a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy, or are we going to bomb ourselves into the stone age in our struggle to figure out which vision of America will win out.

Or, put another way — we face a spectrum, with civil war at one end and autocracy at the other end. After generations of stability and muddling through, the United States has again reached a moment in its history where everyone has to take a side — even if they don’t want to. And there will be no clear narrative as to which side is the right side until after the shooting has not just begun, but ended.

I mean, if Red States try to make up for their small populations and economies by using WMD on Blue States during any putative civil war, then, lulz, they could very well win. Or it could be that the United States simply crashes into a number of smaller nation-states that are always at war with each other. We could join the Soviet Union in the dustbin of history — instead of the United States there will be five or six (or 10?) smaller states that exist where the United States once existed.

The case could be made that all China has to do is be patient — they will have every opportunity to take Taiwan around 2025 because either President DeSantis brings the boys home or we’re so busy having a civil war that we don’t have time to worry about saving Taiwan (or anyone else, for that matter.)

I really have no idea which existential choice we’re going to take. For the moment, however, I think our transition into autocratic managed democracy will be peaceful. There may be huge protests AFTER we’re an autocracy, but, just like with Russia…they will be a lulz.

I wish I had some good news. I don’t.

The Strange Case Of The American Autocracy That Didn’t Happen — Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A funny thing happened on the way to American autocracy: the man history shone on to be the agent of destruction for American democracy turned out to be a big old goober. All the macro historical forces were aligned for 240 years of liberal democracy to be smothered.

And then it didn’t happen.

Pretty much Donald Trump, by being a huge ding-dong gave us some insight into the interaction between Great Men and macro trends of history. Trump was not a Great Man, he was simply an avatar for macro trends. America just barely dodged a historical bullet because Trump, personally, could not do the one thing history had assigned him to do: kill American democracy.

I keep trying to think up ways to grade Trump on an autocratic curve and I keep failing to think of anything. Would you believe that idiot Mussolini was more of a Great Man than Trump ever was. Trump, in the end, was all talk. What’s more he gave the Establishment two things it wanted from him: young hack MAGA judges and a huge plutocrat tax cut…and then he failed everyone else who supported him using any other metric.

While Trump continues to have enormous sway over the Republican Party and the MAGA New Right base, Establishment Republicans are growing really tired of his shock and jibe. They got what they wanted from him, now they want Ron DeSantis to finish the job.

But what job do they want DeSantis to do?

Ron DeSantis

In general, Republicans now simply want to use the quirks of the Constitution to establish permanent white Christian minority rule. I don’t think they’ve thought beyond that — they just want to “control” the growing power of women and minorities. They want power and as much money as they can get through continued smash-and-grab tax “reform.”

And, yet, there’s a problem.

Such things don’t happen in a vacuum. Once it’s conventional wisdom that Republicans have, using the quirks of our creaking Constitution, form follows function and they’re going to start abusing the fuck out of the complete lack of oversight.

And that’s where things get tricky. Will we peacefully transition into an autocratic managed democracy or will we descend into civil war?

At the moment, I think it will all happen peacefully, because the Establishment has a vest interest in the sheeple being complacent. Gradually, however, as we grow more and more fascist in our governance, even the Establishment may live to regret how easily they gave up.

It’s pretty bad when I start thinking that the one thing I don’t want — a civil war — is the better of two bad options because at least there’s a chance the “good guys” will win.

My Captain, My Captain

But back to what’s going on with our undead liberal democracy. Because Trump could not do even the most basic of autocratic power plays in 2020, we are now an autocracy without an autocrat. If you know what you’re looking at, it’s all very surreal. There are a huge number of Americans who want an autocracy so much that they think Fox News is “too liberal.” They are so frightened in the abstract about “Cancel Culture” and “Critical Race Theory,” that they embrace the idea of a fascist state coming to America.

Marinate on that for a second.

We have to admit to ourselves that we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. Soon enough, voting won’t matter and we either accept that or we have a civil war to make voting matter again. Ugh. I hate even having to think about that. But that’s what we face.

The United States is careening towards a huge historical clusterfuck because Trump, chosen by the Fates to transition us into an autocracy, wasn’t a Great Man, he was just a lazy idiot.

Enjoy these few years — months? — of living in a liberal democracy. Soon enough, that may seem rather quaint.

Second American Civil War Scenario 1: The Scalia Endgame


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a lot of ways the United States might have something akin to a civil war — or at least severe, rolling political violence on a national scale — and so I’m going to write a post for each of the different scenarios I can think up. In this scenario, Republicans freak out because one of their important political figures simply shuffles peacefully off this mortal coil.

People just don’t appreciate how on edge the United States is a politically right now. All we would need for significant political violence is some unexpected additional pressure.

So, in this scenario, that added pressure comes from someone like Trump — or Justice Thomas (to a far lesser extent) — gently, and peacefully leaving the land of the living.

The only reason why Thomas might be enough is, well, the country is primed and ready for a national freak out and the MAGA New Right is such a fucking bunch of crybabies that even being down one on SCOTUS might be enough to get them to run around murdering people for political reasons.

But it’s Trump we have to worry about.

If you look at the batshit insane rantings of the MAGA New Right on Twitter, they’re pretty much on a knife’s edge when it comes to political reasons to murder people. And, yet, other than the dramatic exception of January 6th, to date, they’ve been all talk. They, in an abstract, manner, want to murder people like me, but, lulz.

And, yet, since there is absolutely no way the MAGA New Right would ever, for any reason accept that The Dear Leader is mortal and just dropped dead of natural causes, there’s every reason to believe that significant, rolling political violence would occur if Trump proved he wasn’t really the Son Of Man after all.

It’s this scenario that would be closest to the “revolution” that MAGA people keep searching for when the endup at this site. (Sidenote: FUCK YOU, MAGA, YOU BUNCH OF COCKSUCKERS.)

Anyway, the point is — America’s political system is so fragile, so on edge that any additional pressure on it might push it over the edge into the realm of violence on a national scale.

Is The Cyber Ninjas Audit Of The Arizona President Vote Going To Start A Civil War?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No.

Long Answer: How long do you have? If you look at the chatter among the MAGA people interested in the subject of the Cyber Ninjas audit, you will see that they can’t bear to bring themselves to say what they believe: if Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” Arizona, they want a violent overthrow of the government.

They have come to combine the Cyber Ninjas bullshit with The Durham Report which is sort of the last vestiges of Trump’s attempt to get back at all the people connected to the Mueller Report.

So, if the Cyber Ninjas report ever is released and they uphold their end of the bargain and “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona then this would greatly destabilize the United States to the point that there might be decertification conventions, which become nullification conventions which become secession conventions.

Or, put another way, the conditions are there, yes, for a civil war because of the Cyber Ninjas bullshit audit. But at the moment, it seems as though they’re choking big time. They’re blowing it, which is good for the sake of the long-term stability of the country.

And, yet, we have to accept that under the surface the United States is so politically unstable and the MAGA New Right glorifies political violence so much that all we need is a unexpected pressure on the system and the whole thing could come falling down in a rather dramatic fashion.

All the conditions are there.

But, I’m beginning to think it’s not going to happen anytime soon. We’re just going to drift through things until about January 2025. Then all hell will break loose.